Written by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GP_Landry on Twitter

Happy Friday everybody! Those of you from Cleveland or anyone out there who is a Browns fan, congratulations! I normally don’t stay up for the second half of the Thursday night games, but with Baker Mayfield coming out, I was intrigued. I’m glad I watched the whole game. Cleveland looked like a totally different team with him on the field. I’m not ready to crown him the real deal after just one half of football but he looked really good last night. Oh! There was baseball on too! It was some pretty exciting baseball also! For starters, before the main slate even began, Oakland put up 21 runs on the Angels yesterday. Then we had some slug fests in New York, Toronto, and Detroit. The Tigers put up 11 runs to beat the Royals, despite eight runs of their own. The Red Sox put up 11 runs as well to defeat the Yankees and clinch the AL East for third straight season. And the most exciting game of all was the Blue Jays, who scored seven runs in the bottom of the ninth inning to come back from an 8-2 deficit and win 9-8. Pretty good night of sports all around. Oh yea, and during the day yesterday we had some serious vintage Tiger to cap it all off.

Today, we have our typically huge Friday slate. Only one game isn’t on the main slate tonight which means we have 14 games to work with. This is another good pitching day with options that interest me in all three pricing tiers. I’ll breakdown my favorites but there are definitely a few others I could see myself landing on depending on how roster construction shakes out. There should be plenty of opportunities for offense with three teams that have implied totals over five runs and several other teams in the upper four run range. We have two aces on the mound today, who will be unusable as well, that need to be mentioned. Chris Sale will continue his rehab that he’s been doing for the past couple of weeks by only going around three innings as the opener. I haven’t seen any confirmation about who will follow for Boston. Typically, it had been Nathan Eovaldi but he started just a couple of nights ago so he won’t be available. On the other side of that game, Trevor Bauer is returning from the disabled list today as well. He too will be in an “opener” role as Cleveland looks to work him back to full strength before the playoffs. I haven’t seen anything about who will be coming in after him either. For now, this game is a complete stay away for me. There is a lot of notable weather tonight that we’ll need to pay attention to. In Texas, we have a heavy rain threat that could cause a delay or even PPD. We also have some serious wind in both Cleveland and Detroit. In Cleveland, it’s all over the place right now. It starts off blowing in at 19 mph and then later in the game it’s supposed to be blowing out at 19 mph? In Detroit, it looks like we’ll be starting off with 16 mph winds blowing straight out but then that will change direction during the game as well. I’m going to let the experts handle the forecasts but just know those are some games you’ll want to watch closely. Enough introduction, we’ve got a lot to cover today, let’s start this weekend off right.

High Priced Pitching

Jacob deGrom, NYM (@WAS) (DK: $12.4K, FD: $12.1K)

He is the best pitcher in baseball. Period. If Sale and Bauer were both healthy right now it’s possible they would be in the conversation, but it would still be really difficult to argue with what deGrom is doing right now. Throw out the win-loss record. It’s not his fault he’s on a bad team. He has a chance to become the first winner of the Cy Young Award with fewer than 13 wins. He’s currently on a streak of 27 straight starts allowing three earned runs or less, which is the longest single-season streak in major league history.

In 202 innings pitched this season he has a 2.84 SIERA with 31.9% strikeouts and 15.1% swinging strikes. The WHIP is elite at 0.95 and the hard contact allowed is below average at 27.4%. In the past two weeks, which includes a start against the best offense in baseball in Boston, he has a 2.13 SIERA with an incredible 40% strikeout rate and a 0.79 WHIP. In his start against the Red Sox, in Fenway Park, he went seven innings allowing five hits, three earned runs, and striking out 12. He’s unbelievable.

Today he gets to face off with Washington who is certainly not the team we thought they’d be this year but still dangerous. They have a low strikeout rate at just 19.8% with a high 10.1% walk rate. They also have a .163 ISO, .326 wOBA, and 101 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Dangerous or not though, I’m siding with deGrom here for obvious reasons. Shockingly, he’s a favorite in this game, which provides an additional boost. The Mets are -140 favorites and the Nationals have a low 3.7 implied run total. He’s your top arm on the board today for both cash and tournaments.

German Marquez, COL (@ARI) (DK: $10.5K, FD: $10.2K)

I know his last outing against the Giants when he was a virtual lock was disappointing but he didn’t pitch a bad real life game. It was just bad for fantasy purposes relative to his price. Sometimes it can be difficult to separate the two. He went six innings, allowing only three earned runs, but had just four strikeouts, which is very uncharacteristic of him after coming off of three straight games with double-digit strikeouts. My assumption is that people who got “burned” may back off of Marquez today given the amount of pitching options that are available on this slate. I’m staying on this train as it’s another good spot for him and I’m willing to chalk up the last game as just an off night and nothing more.

The Diamondbacks appear to be in “tank” mode, as they basically rolled out a minor league lineup their last game. Over the past month they have only a .143 ISO, .279 wOBA, and 66 wRC+ which is well below their season averages. They are also striking out 24.2% of the time. Meanwhile, Marquez, over the past month, has a 2.51 xFIP with 60 strikeouts and just nine walks in 48.2 innings pitched. The only downside here is that Arizona has Greinke going on the other side and, at least for the moment, Vegas is favoring him. But the line has started moving in the other direction, which is encouraging. The Rockies opened at +120 and it’s now down to +104. Colorado opened with a 3.6 implied run total that is now at 3.7 runs while the Diamondbacks opened with a total of four runs which is now at 3.9. Basically, they are predicting a pitcher’s duel. Because of the uncertainty, I’d prefer Marquez in tournaments only today (you’re playing deGrom in cash anyway) but he’s a strong option and a nice pivot from some of the other players in this price range.

Value Pitching

Luis Castillo, CIN (@MIA) (DK: $8.8K, FD: $8.5K)

I like both pitchers in this game today, so we’ll start with Castillo. It’s been the tale of two seasons for Castillo this year. In the first half of the season, prior to the All-Star break, he was 5-8 with a 5.49 ERA (4.02 xFIP), 96 strikeouts and 35 walks in 103.1 innings pitching. That’s an 8.36 K/9 and a 3.05 BB/9. He also allowed 19 home runs in those 20 starts and had an 18.4% HR/FB rate. Since the break, he has a 2.79 ERA (3.20 xFIP) with 64 strikeouts to just 13 walks in 58 innings. Home runs are still an issue as he’s allowed nine in 10 starts, but what a difference in his overall performance in the second-half of the season. The upside is there with seven strikeouts or more in six of these 10 starts. Where he struggles is with left-handed batters. He has a 4.30 xFIP, 1.56 WHIP, and allows 43.5% hard contact. But are there any left-handed batters we are worried about in this lineup? Maybe Dietrich? But one player won’t scare us off. He should get some help with his home run issues playing in the most pitcher friendly park in all of baseball. The Reds are -138 favorites today and the Marlins have a very low total at just 3.5 runs. I like Castillo is an SP2 in cash or as a tournament option on either site.

Wei-Yin Chen, MIA (vs. CIN) (DK: $6.8K, FD: $7.6K)

Quite possibly the most drastic home/road splits in all of baseball belong to this man. Chen is 6-11 overall this season but 5-3 at home. He has a 1.77 ERA while allowing just a .185 AVG and .238 wOBA at home. On the road, he has a 9.29 ERA while allowing a .329 AVG and .421 wOBA. Crazy right? It gets better. At home, he has 23.4% strikeouts, 7.8% walks, a 0.99 WHIP, and an 84.4% LOB%. He’s allowed 0.63 HR/9. On the road, he has a 14.8% strikeout rate, 9% walks, a 1.85 WHIP, and a 55.7% LOB%. He’s allowed 2.45 HR/9. Are you seeing a trend here? There are some borderline elite numbers when he’s in Marlins Park and then he’s quite possibly the worst pitcher in baseball on the road. It’s truly remarkable.

Today, he’s at home. So that means he’s a Cy Young candidate (just kidding). He has a plus matchup against the Reds who are going the wrong way in a big hurry. In the past month, they have just a .153 ISO, .312 wOBA, and 91 wRC+ with a low 31% hard-hit rate. They are striking out 24% of the time. Over the last two weeks, the ISO is relatively flat at .155 but the wOBA has dropped to .302 along with the wRC+ down to 85. The strikeout rate has also spiked dramatically to 28%. With Chen being at home, the Reds’ recent poor performance, and the massive park downgrade for them, it’s really hard not to like him today. He is an underdog as the Reds are rolling out Castillo who we already talked about. That definitely increases the risk which makes him a tournament only play for me. I prefer him on DraftKings only, given the price. On FanDuel, where he’s not as cheap and the salaries are not as tight, you can do better than this.

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

If you’re new to the article, this is the section where I pick an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher to hit a long ball today. If there's a game at Coors Field, I always exclude them from this list because it's too obvious. So just keep that in mind. Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential.

Aaron Judge, NYY: OF (DK: $5.5K, FD: $4.3K)

Judge has just one hit since his return from the disabled list but I think tonight's the night he gets back on track. He gets a great matchup at home against Yefry Ramirez, who's allowing a .195 xISO to right-handed hitters this season. Judge has a .736 wOBA+ISO against right-handed pitching over his last 150 games. He also profiles well against Ramirez including a .284 xISO against fastballs, a .209 xISO against sliders, and a .212 xISO against changeups.

Jedd Gyorko, STL: 2B/3B (DK: $4.1K, FD: $2.7K)

Bumgarner is getting smoked by right-handed hitting this season, allowing a .224 xISO and .352 xwOBA with an 85 mph average exit velocity. Gyorko loves to face left-handed pitching (that's usually all he faces) and has a .680 wOBA+ISO over this last 150 games and an average exit velocity of 96.7 mph over the last two weeks. As usual, he's too cheap against a lefty, especially on FanDuel.

Tyler White, HOU: 1B (DK: $4.7K, FD: $4.2K)

White is hitting the ball extremely well right now. He has a .297 ISO, .403 wOBA and a low 19.3% strikeout rate and a high 11.1% walk rate. The power combined with the plate discipline puts him on the radar almost nightly. Tonight is especially good against the left-handed Andrew Heaney, who is allowing a .207 xISO and 40% hard contact rate against right-handed batters.

Value Bats

Similar to the home run watch list, in this section I’ll provide an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher who are priced in the value tier. If I can find someone under priced on both sites, I’ll highlight them. But in some cases, it could be site specific.

Aramis Garcia, SFG: C/1B (DK: $3.2K, FD: $2.5K)

I don't love the matchup, as Gant has been pretty solid against right-handed hitters, but it's very difficult to ignore his results so far, or this price tag. Since being recalled, he's 10 for 30 with a .300 ISO and .408 wOBA. He strikes out a TON (46.7%) so just be aware of that, but the upside is there, especially for this price.

Franmil Reyes, SDP: OF (DK: $3.5K, FD: $3.3K)

You must get so sick of me talking about Reyes in the value bat section so often. He sticks out like a sore thumb with dollar signs all over it every time he faces left-handed pitching. Rich Hill allows a .197 xISO to right-handed hitters. He also throws his fastball 60% of the time. Reyes has a .498 xISO and .475 xwOBA against fastballs this season.

Jake Cave, MIN: OF (DK: $3.5K, FD: $3K)

Not much is standing out to me today for middle infield value so that may be a place where I look to spend up. Outfield seems to be a good spot to save a little cash if you need it. Cave batted third in the order in their last game, which is awesome for a player who is still this cheap. He has a .552 wOBA+ISO and a 2.00 FP/PA against right-handed pitching in his last 150 games.

Stacks on Stacks

The Yankees will get the most attention today, from an ownership perspective, facing Yefry Ramirez and the Orioles. New York has an implied total that opened at 5.7 and is up to 5.9 runs already. They are far and away the top offense on this slate. It’s going to be inflated even further if the game down in Texas gets rained out tonight, which is looking like a real possibility. There is a flash flood watch already in place. I love that game too but I can’t suggest it knowing there’s a high probability it won’t happen. Let’s look at some of the other options.

Detroit Tigers (vs. Ian Kennedy)

I’m going right back to the Detroit well here. They came through in a big way last night and today is shaping up to be another potentially big night. The forecast here is calling for sustained winds blowing out to left between 15 and 20 miles per hour. This should provide us with a nice boost to the bats, despite the cooler weather. Ian Kennedy has been fine since his return from the disabled list but he’s faced the Twins in both starts, so I don’t feel like we really have a ton to go off of at this point. His season-long numbers show us a player with some strikeout upside, particularly against left-handed batters (24.1%) but a lot of red flags as well. He has a 4.43 xFIP, 1.41 WHIP, and nearly 10% walks to lefties and a 4.88 xFIP with only 17.8% strikeouts, and a 1.42 WHIP to righties. Both sides of the plate are hitting him really hard. Lefties have a .244 xISO and .349 xwOBA while righties have a .254 xISO and .368 xwOBA. Christian Stewart put his power on full display last night with a two home run performance and he’s once again in play in this spot. Castellanos (.202 ISO, .341 wOBA), Goodrum (.229 ISO), and Mahtook (.188 ISO) are all in play as well. As we’ve talked about with this team, they are very boom or bust. The numbers don’t really jump out at you but they have some power. Focus on hard-hit rates to help you prioritize which players to use. Kozma (40% hard-hits) and Greiner (38.3% hard-hits) are both standing out to me from that perspective. Detroit opened with a 4.7 implied run total.

Kansas City Royals (vs. Francisco Liriano)

A game stack, with two bad pitchers and this hitter’s weather, is fully in play tonight. The Royals are another team that’s been hitting the ball well recently, even though there isn’t a lot that really jumps out at you on paper. We’ll start with Liriano. He’s not bad against lefties with a 3.93 xFIP, 21.7% strikeouts, and an 0.87 WHIP. Walks are still an issue at 10.9%. Right-handed bats are real trouble, where he has a 5.00 xFIP, 17.8% strikeouts, 13% walks, and a 1.66 WHIP. Opposing righties have a .211 xISO and .381 xwOBA against him this season. Obviously, we should prioritize them for the purposes of stacking today. Merrifield (.180 ISO, .403 wOBA), Bonifacio (.349 wOBA), and Mondesi (.189 ISO, .335 wOBA, 48.3% hard-hits) are the top options. Perez is having a down season but we know the ceiling is high and he does have a 43.9% hard-hit rate against left-handed pitching this season. He’s certainly on the radar. Hunter Dozier had a good game last night but there’s nothing in his stats that indicate that was anything more than a fluke. He’s a fade for me. I’m also avoiding the lefties here although Goodwin has a solid .334 wOBA against left-handed pitching. O’Hearn is a complete stay away with his 43.2% strikeout rate against lefties. The Royals have a solid 4.4 implied total today.

Houston Astros (vs. Andrew Heaney)

There’s too much right-handed power here for Heaney to get through. He’s a solid pitcher but righties are his weakness and the Astros’ lineup is full of talented ones. Heaney has a 4.10 xFIP and allows 40% hard contact to that side of the plate. They have a .207 xISO and .338 xwOBA against him this season. Bregman (.262 ISO, .408 wOBA) tops my list today. Springer is close behind with a .191 ISO and .356 wOBA). Tyler White continues to smash with a .309 ISO and .430 wOBA in his 55 plate appearances. I love Evan Gattis today. He has a .281 ISO and .339 wOBA against lefties. He also crushes sinkers (.449 xISO and .516 xwOBA), which just happen to be Heaney’s most often used pitch. Gurriel (.354 wOBA), and Altuve (.334 wOBA) all make for solid options, although they don’t bring the same power upside this season as the others. Correa makes for an interesting fade, as he’s been struggling and Houston manager A.J Hinch said that he’s “not feeling great”. Correa was left out of the lineup on Wednesday before their day off yesterday to give him an extra day of rest, which generally isn’t a good sign. Despite Correa, the rest of this team appears to be in a prime spot. They opened with an implied total of 4.8 runs, which is now at 4.9 runs.

The Bullpen Report

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