Top MLB Plays 9/20 | Walk-Off Grand Slams Are Fun

September 20, 2018

Jason Kipnis. Wow. I just happened to have that game on last night while I was working on today’s newsletter and I’m so glad that I did. A walk-off grand slam for his career 1,000th hit. It was awesome. If you missed it here’s a link. Turn the volume up because Tom Hamilton does a great job with the call. Today is an ugly seven game slate. We’ve got Scherzer and then a whole bunch of crap on the mound. I guess it was bound to come crashing down on us eventually after two days in a row of loaded pitching slates. Eduardo Rodriguez and Masahiro Tanaka are both pitching today, and they aren’t crap, but it makes things difficult when they are facing each other. We’ll talk about that one a bit more shortly. I shouldn’t have to tell you this, but those of you who make your lineups early in the day should always make sure to be checking back before lock to double check all the posted lineups and see if anything changed. Last night became very apparent that tanking season is starting when Arizona basically rolled out their farm system as the starting lineup. Of course, Hamels still got shelled, but it really changed the approach to last night’s slate. Did you pivot to Hamels or did you stack the Rays despite the weak lineup because they were super cheap? There was a lot of lineup movement in the last 30 minutes before lock yesterday and I would expect the same for the remainder of our games going forward. You need to stay alert. Alright, enough of the introduction. This may be an ugly slate but there’s always an edge to be found. Let’s see what we can dig up today.

High Priced Pitching

Max Scherzer, WAS (vs. NYM) (DK: $13K, FD: $12K)

At this point, I should be able to just type his name and not actually need to explain the reasoning, but what’s the fun in that? There actually is an interesting topic with Mad Max that’s worth discussing today. He’s given up three earned runs or more in four consecutive starts including six in his last outing, which was his most all season. His ERA over the past month is at 4.78 and in the past two weeks it’s at 6.32. Very uncharacteristic for Scherzer. But there are still a ton of positives and these recent results aren’t going to change my opinion at all. For one, his SIERA in the past month is over two runs lower than the ERA at just 2.99 and in the past week it’s over three runs lower at 3.19. Secondly, the BABIP during this span has been incredibly high at .432 over those past two weeks. Third, and most importantly, the strikeout rate is still there. In the past month he has a 32.6% strikeout rate with 14.1% swinging strikes, and in the past two weeks it’s a 28.8% strikeout rate with 16.9% swinging strikes. The upside is still there and the run prevention issues will regress back to the mean. Mad Max is fine. He gets a favorable matchup tonight against the Mets, who have only a .165 ISO and .310 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Scherzer is the top pitcher on all sites for both cash and tournaments today.

Eduardo Rodriguez, BOS (@NYY) (DK: $9.1K, FD: $9K)

To be perfectly honest, there isn’t another high priced pitcher that I’m completely sold on for this slate. Matt Boyd has been pitching really well recently, and he gets a good matchup today, but I can’t bring myself to pay his price tag. On DraftKings, he’s up $3.4K since the end of August, which is just an incredible jump in cost. He’s only gone over 30 fantasy points twice this whole season I’m having a really hard time justifying paying this price no matter how good he’s been. If you want to go here, I get it. I wouldn’t talk you off of it, but I just don’t see myself doing it. That means if we want to stay in this price range, we are going to have to roster one of either Rodriguez or Tanaka in a bad matchup. I’m going to pivot to Rodriguez, as he costs far less money than both his opponent and even Boyd on DraftKings today. Hear me out on this one as I’m well aware there is a ton of risk. Vegas has the Yankees with a 4.8 implied run total, the Red Sox are +147, and we know the Yankees crush left-handed pitching as we saw very clearly last night. But on a small slate like this, I’m looking for pure upside in tournaments and trying to stay as far away from high ownership as I can, as it’s bound to settle on only a few players when we don’t have much to choose from. People are going to be scared of this idea but Rodriguez has, in my opinion, the highest ceiling on this slate besides Scherzer, even if the floor is lower in this spot. The Red Sox just need to win one game in this series to clinch the American League East and this is their best opportunity in this series to do that. Rodriguez has been lights out this season. He has a 3.53 ERA, 3.63 SIERA, and 26.3% strikeout rates. He’s been equally as good since returning from the disabled list. He’s 1-1 in three starts with a 2.65 xFIP and 23 strikeouts to just four walks in fifteen innings. Unfortunately, this is a bit more of a gut call than a stat based call, which is not something I typically do. But without anything else to really like in the high priced tier, Rodriguez at likely single digit ownership is really appealing for tournaments.

Value Pitching

Yonny Chirinos, TB (@TOR) (DK: $5.8K, FD: $6.2K)

I’ve yet to see a confirmation but I’m confident that Chirinos is the follow guy today. This would be normal rest for him, and Yarbrough pitched yesterday, and Beeks the day before. Stanek will do his usual two innings and then hand it off. Chirinos has been solid in his new role this season with a 3.99 SIERA that is closely aligned with his 3.89 ERA. He has slightly below average strikeouts at 19.8% but his swinging strike rate of 11% suggests he has a little more upside than what we’ve seen. He’s been very consistent with his numbers over the past month, very similar to his season long stats. In the last 30 days, he has a 3.72 SIERA, which again closely aligns with his 3.77 ERA. The strikeout rate is exactly the same at 19.8% and the swinging strike rate is only slightly lower at 10.3%. There are no signs of any regression coming. He’s a cheap pitcher who will eat up some innings, get some strikeouts, and should reach value based on his salary. Toronto isn’t the best matchup in the world, as they have some power with a .186 ISO and .324 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season but they strikeout at an above average rate and they have a lot of younger guys that are still developing in their lineup. I’ve been high on them the past couple of days, and after watching the games, I’m putting them more in the “boom or bust” category the rest of the way. They have the power to do damage but they are equally likely to throw up a dud as we witnessed in a prime spot last night. The Rays are comfortable -131 favorites today and Toronto opened with a 3.9 implied total. I like Chirinos as an SP2 tournament option today.

Cody Reed, CIN (@MIA) (DK: $5.5K, FD: $6.4K)

Reed has made four starts since joining the rotation at the end of August and he’s been pretty effective so far. He’s 0-1 in four starts but has a solid 3.32 xFIP and 20 strikeouts in 18.2 innings. He’s coming off his most impressive start, at Wrigley Field, going five innings and allowing two hits, zero earned runs, and striking out 10. He’s faced some tough teams in his four starts including the Brewers and Dodgers at home (which is a terrible park to pitch in) and then the Pirates and Cubs on the road. Today, he’ll finally get a favorable start against the Marlins and in Miami. Unsurprisingly, they struggle almost as much with left-handed pitching as they do with right-handed pitching. This season, they have a .132 ISO, .289 wOBA, and 84 wRC+ against lefties. They also strikeout 22.5% of the time, which will give Allen an additional boost that he apparently doesn’t really need with the upside he’s been able to show so far. The only downside here is that Reed has yet to go past five innings in any of his starts and I’m afraid that might be by design. Obviously, that hurts his chances of being able to pay off his salary but he’s cheap enough that it’s worth the risk. The Reds are a solid -129 favorite today and the Marlins have an implied total of only four runs. Because of the matchup and the low cost, I would go Reed as my SP2 in cash on two pitcher sites. I think the floor is high enough even if he only goes five innings. You could use him as a tournament option as well, but just know the ceiling is limited if he’s not going to pitch deep into the game. The salary he opens up though will help you increase the ceiling of your lineup elsewhere, so I certainly don’t hate the idea.

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

If you’re new to the article, this is the section where I pick an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher to hit a long ball today. If there's a game at Coors Field, I always exclude them from this list because it's too obvious. So just keep that in mind. Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential.

Ryan Zimmerman, WAS: 1B (DK: $4.6K, FD: $3.1K)

Vargas gets obliterated by right-handed hitters, allowing a .220 xISO and 2.08 HR/9. Zimmerman has a .742 wOBA+ISO over his last 150 games and a .299 ISO with 48.2% hard-hits against left-handed pitching this season. He should smash in this spot today.

Brandon Lowe: TB: 2B/OF (DK: $4.1K, FD: $3K)

I’m hoping Lowe gets a better lineup spot today, as he’s gone back and forth between the middle and the bottom of the order over the past week. This matchup certainly favors him, so it would make sense to keep him near the heart of the lineup. He has a .215 ISO and 40% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. As we’ll talk about in the stack section, Gaviglio really struggles with lefties, allowing a .222 xISO and .375 xwOBA.

Daniel Palka, CWS: OF (DK: $4.9K, FD: $2.9K)

The man is on fire right now with four home runs in his last three games and seven in the month of September. He has a .467 ISO and .459 wOBA during that span. He has a .289 ISO and 37.7% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season. Tomlin is getting crushed by left-handed hitting this season, allowing a massive .357 xISO and .465 xwOBA.

Value Bats

Similar to the home run watch list, in this section I’ll provide an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher who are priced in the value tier. If I can find someone under priced on both sites, I’ll highlight them. But in some cases, it could be site specific.

Peter O’Brien, MIA: 1B (DK: $3.7K, FD: $2.1K)

I like Cody Reed overall, but it’s hard to ignore Peter O’Brien right now at this price and with the upside he’s already flashed. Since being recalled on September 4th, he has a .308 AVG, .470 wOBA, and .462 ISO including three home runs in only 32 plate appearances. I still like Reed but I think O’Brien can have a solid game and reach value from a fantasy standpoint on his own, even if his team ultimately underperforms as usual.

Luke Voit, NYY: 1B (DK: $3.8K, FD: $3.4K)

This guys is STILL underpriced. I’m not sure what it will take to get his price up. He broke the $4K mark on DraftKings briefly, then came all the way back down to $3.8K. He goes four for four with two home runs last night and the price only increases $300. Keep playing him until the cost forces you to reconsider.

Odubel Herrera: OF (DK: $3.8K, FD: $2.4K)

Herrera is undervalued on FanDuel. He’s been at or under the $2.5K mark on that site forever but he’s still posting outstanding performances from time to time. In fact, he’s coming off one last night where he hit a home run. He gets a great matchup today against Gausman, who’s allowing a .194 xISO and .343 xwOBA to left-handed hitters.

Stacks on Stacks

Cleveland should be the chalk stack today against (sigh...) "Big Game James" (I can’t wait until I stop seeing that). They have a massive implied total of 5.6 runs, well above anyone else on the board. I think they make for a very interesting fade tonight. They have clinched the AL Central and should be resting guys moving forward. I would keep an eye on their lineup tonight, but based on what I’ve seen from them recently, they are likely a stay-away for me the rest of the way.

Washington Nationals (vs. Jason Vargas)

Are you buying the recent success of Jason Vargas? He’s been good, not great, since the beginning of August, going 4-3 in eight starts with a 4.34 ERA and 3.96 xFIP. He has 35 strikeouts with 11 walks in 37.1 innings pitched. He’s also allowed five home runs during that span. The walks and the long ball are definitely still an issue and I’m still confident this is someone we want to stack against. With the lack of pitching available today, and Vargas pitching well recently (including a fantastic outing against this Nationals team) I think he could be someone who carries some ownership. He won’t be chalk, but Jason Vargas at anything more than 10% is a complete stay-away for me. I’d much rather be on the other side of this matchup.

His splits against right and left-handed bats are still standing out to me as a red flag. This season he has a 5.08 xFIP with only 17.7% strikeouts and 10.6% walks against left-handed hitters and a 4.47 xFIP with 20.2% strikeouts and 7% walks against right-handed hitters. Lefties have a .166 xISO and .372 xwOBA against him while righties have a .220 xISO and .341 xwOBA against him. Based on all this, I would prioritize right-handed bats here but I wouldn’t shy away from lefties either. Anthony Rendon is my top option. He’s a career lefty masher and brings a .263 ISO and .376 wOBA into this game today. Ryan Zimmerman is also high on my list with a .299 ISO and .473 wOBA this season. Both of those guys have low strikeout rates as an added bonus. Trea Turner doesn’t bring the power but I like his .339 wOBA, his very low 11.7% strikeout rate, and his very high 11.1% walk rate. He just needs to be on base, steal a bag or two, and let the other guys bring him in. Mark Reynolds also doesn’t have the same power with a .164 ISO but his wOBA is outstanding at .383 to go with a 39.5% hard-hit rate. I would start there with this club. Soto is in the conversation as well, even though you guys know I hate lefty on lefty. He has a .232 ISO and .391 wOBA this season. Same with Bryce Harper who has a .232 ISO and .371 wOBA against left-handed pitching. Vegas is not on board with Vargas, despite the recent success, as Washington currently owns an implied run total of 5.1 runs.

Detroit Tigers (vs. Jorge Lopez)

Here’s another guy that has flashed some moments of brilliance recently but I’m not ready to buy at all. First, he hasn’t exactly faced a murderer’s row of opponents with the Orioles and then the Twins twice. Second, as I alluded to earlier, he left his last game early with a ribs issue. He was supposedly having trouble breathing. The Royals are “hopeful” he will be able to make the start today but it doesn’t sound like it’s guaranteed at this point. If he were a late scratch, Kansas City would likely go to a bullpen game, which would only increase my interest in Detroit more. As far as that near perfect game he threw. He had a 1.13 ERA but a 4.39 xFIP and the BABIP that night was .048. Definitely more lucky than good. There is nothing in his numbers this season that indicate this is a player we’d want to avoid using hitters against. He has a low 17% strikeout rate, a nearly 10% walk rate (9.9%) and he’s allowing 41.4% hard contact. This isn’t the best lineup to stack but our options are a bit limited tonight. Castellanos (.192 ISO, .336 wOBA) and Goodrum (.229 ISO) are the two obvious options. After that it’s a pretty mixed bag. Adduci has a solid .328 wOBA and Mahtook has some upside with his .188 ISO. Christian Stewart hasn’t done much yet at the major league level but he was solid in Triple-A with a .216 ISO and .373 wOBA. These guys are pretty affordable as well, which adds to their appeal when they are in good spots. Vegas currently has them pegged with a 4.7 implied run total.

Tampa Bay Rays (vs. Sam Gaviglio)

The Rays were a bit of a letdown as the chalk stack for a couple of nights down in Texas but they came through last night, putting up nine runs. They get another nice hitter’s park, opening a series at the Rogers Centre, which is a top ten park for home runs. Sam Gaviglio will be on the mound for Toronto and his weakness is left-handed hitters, which the Rays happen to have a lot of. He has a 4.84 xFIP with only 15.5% strikeouts and a 1.55 WHIP against lefties this season. They have a .222 xISO and .375 xwOBA against them this season. Ji-Man Choi leads the way with a .592 wOBA+ISO over his last 150 games. Brandon Lowe obviously has less at-bats than most of the team but has been really good since joining the majors. He has a .215 ISO and .352 wOBA against right-handed pitching. Kevin Kiermaier (.538 wOBA+ISO) and Jake Bauers (.523 wOBA+ISO) are also standing out. Mallex Smith doesn’t have the power but his .339 wOBA and stolen base skills make him a very dangerous option. While I would prioritize the lefties, don’t leave out right-handed bats to make your stacks work. Gaviglio is better but still not great against righties. Tommy Pham has a .538 wOBA+ISO and Willy Adames has a .505 wOBA+ISO, putting them both in play. Last but not least, Joey Wendle doesn’t stand out from a statistical perspective, but if you believe in hot streaks, he’s coming off two monster games, going seven for ten with three doubles and a stolen base. I wouldn’t leave him off if he fits into your stack. There is no line on this game, per usual, since it’s never clear at first who is the follow pitcher for the Rays. So Vegas waits, but I’m anticipating the Rays will be somewhere in the 4.5 to 4.8 implied total range when the lines are released.

The Bullpen Report

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