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Written by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GP_Landry on Twitter

Good morning everyone! We’ve got a 1:05 pm EST start on the main slate today so I’m getting this out nice and early to give you enough time to prepare. For the purposes of today’s article I’m going to focus only on the main slate. On DraftKings, this is eight games including the 3:05 game between the Twins and Rangers. On FanDuel, this is seven games and that last game is not included. To make things easy, I’m not going to mention any players from that Twins/Rangers game. I’ll make it real simple. I love the bats. There is no real analysis needed on that game. Two bad pitchers in Globe Life Park. Play that bats and fade the pitchers. As far as the rest of the slate goes pitching is pretty ugly today, especially in the lower price tiers. I assume my suggestion in that range will be unpopular but I’ll do my best to explain how I arrived at that decision. When there’s a lot of bad pitching, however, it means we have a lot of good offense so there should be plenty of stacks to fit your needs today. Let’s get to work!

High Priced Pitching

Aaron Nola, PHI (vs. CHC) (DK: $12.8K, FD: $11K)

I’d like to extend a thank you to Philadelphia manager Gabe Kepler for deciding to move Nola’s start up one day. If Nola wasn’t on the slate things would be even uglier out there as we’d be looking at Jon Lester as the highest priced pitcher of the day. There are two significant reasons why the Phillies are doing this that are worth pointing out. First, with the Phillies fighting for a playoff spot moving Nola up by one game allows him to make four of his final six appearances at home, where he is 9-0 this season in 13 starts. The second reason is they are currently just two games back of Atlanta in the NL east. Making this switch means that Nola would pitch against Atlanta twice in the final week of the season. If the division is on the line I’d be feeling pretty good about my chances with Nola taking the hill twice. The potential Cy Young winner is coming off of two starts in a row against rival Max Scherzer. Nola went 1-0 giving up just one earned run and picking up 17 strikeouts. On the season he has an outstanding 3.49 SIERA with 25.8% strikeouts and 12% swinging strikes. He can handle both sides of the plate, with a 3.43 xFIP, 26.5% strikeouts and a 1.00 WHIP against lefties and a 3.12 xFIP with 25.1% strikeouts and a 0.94 WHIP against righties. His recent results are just as encouraging as his season long numbers as well. Over the past month, he’s forcing 48.8% groundballs while allowing only 17.1% hard-hits and an average distance of just 189.3 feet. The Cubs have a low 3.9 implied run total and the Phillies are -145 favorites. He’s mega chalk today but obviously for good reason. In tournaments I understand the game theory perspective if you want to fade. Personally, I think I’d take the points from Nola here and find other ways to differentiate. He’s far and away the best pitcher on the slate today.

Lance Lynn, NYY (vs. DET) (DK: $8.8K, FD: $8K)

Ignore the last few starts he’s had and focus on the bigger picture here. The right-handed heavy Tigers are literally the best matchup possible that you can ask for when choosing Lynn for your rosters. He has dramatic splits between both sides of the plate. He’s awful against lefties, with a 5.30 xFIP, 15.7% strikeouts, and 14.5% walks. Having nearly as many walks as strikeouts has brought his WHIP to a horrendous 1.98 and he’s allowing a .357 xwOBA and over 38% hard contact. But, the Tigers are likely only rolling out three or maybe four left-handed batters in their lineup with Jim Adduci, Niko Goodrum, Victor Martinez, and Jeimer Candelario. I’m not concerned about Adduci or V-Mart at all. Candelario is much better against lefties than righties and he strikes out 25% of the time. Goodrum is the one threat from the left-side of the plate but he also strikes out 29.5% of the time to right-handed pitching. The rest of the Detroit lineup will be full of weak right-handed bats outside of Nick Castellanos. Lynn is like a different person when he faces righties. He has a 3.44 xFIP, 27.9% strikeout rate (that’s higher than Nola), and a 48% groundball rate. Opposing right-handed bats have just a .136 xISO and .291 xwOBA against him this season. As an added bonus, we have some matchup history here as well. He has faced Detroit twice this season, both when he was a member of the Twins. On May 22nd, he went 6.2 innings, giving up five hits, zero runs, and picking up four strikeouts. On June 14th, he went 6.2 innings again, allowing five hits, three earned runs and getting nine strikeouts. He was 1-1 in those two starts. Keep an eye on the lineup here just to be safe. It’s possible Detroit gets tricky with the expanded roster and tries to throw more left-handed bats at him than usual. If that happens it would seriously make me consider a fade, he’s that bad against lefties and he’s not in great form at the moment, so just be sure to keep an eye on it. Regardless, he’s a massive -252 favorite and Detroit has the lowest implied total on the slate at just 3.5 runs. He’s in play for both cash games and tournaments.

Value Pitching

Brian Johnson, BOS (@CWS) (DK: $8.1K, FD: $5.8K)

The role that Brian Johnson has played for the Boston Red Sox this season might be the most undervalued of any player. It’s easy to forget some of the unsung heroes on this squad with Chris Sale running away with the AL Cy Young award and Mookie Betts or JD Martinez making serious arguments for Most Valuable Player. Johnson’s been a key part of their success even if he’s not getting the attention he deserves. A strong and consistent performer who has filled gaps in the rotation during injuries to Eduardo Rodriguez, Chris Sale, Stephen Wright, and Drew Pomeranz (sure, we’ll call his case of “I suck at pitching” an injury, why not?) The Red Sox are 9-2 in the eleven games that he’s started this season. They went 5-0 in August with Johnson going 3-0 in those five starts. His numbers don’t jump off the page at you but they won’t scare you away either. He has a 4.24 SIERA only slightly above his 4.02 ERA with a respectable 20.7% strikeout rate. Naturally, he’s really good against lefties with a 4.11 xFIP and 25% strikeouts while allowing a low .113 xISO and .257 xwOBA. He struggles a bit with righties including his 4.64 xFIP and 19.2% strikeouts while allowing a .218 xISO and .360 xwOBA. What should give you the most confidence is the matchup today. In case you missed last night, Eduardo Rodriguez threw a gem in his first start off the disabled list needing only 5.2 innings to collect a whopping twelve strikeouts. I’m not saying Johnson can do something like that, he’s certainly not the pitcher that Rodriguez is, but it’s encouraging none the less. The White Sox have a terrible 27% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching to go with a very low .304 wOBA. Need another reason to use him today? Go look at his price on FanDuel. I nearly fell out of my seat. If you really wanted to fade Nola you could take the ridiculous savings with Johnson and then load up on bats, even in cash. It’s not a conventional approach but it could work with such a significant discount it’s hard to argue with the idea. Just be careful, as Johnson’s pitch count is often hard to predict so it increases the risk with him. Boston is a -172 favorite and Chicago has a low implied total of just 4.1 runs today.

Sean Reid-Foley, TOR (@MIA) (DK: $5.3K, FD: $5.7K)

This will be the unpopular opinion that I referred to earlier but just hear me out. Pitching below the $8K mark on both sites today is very, very ugly. We’ll start with “Mediocre Game James” as he’s now been dubbed. He’s been better than I expected this season but it’s not going to happen against the Red Sox today. Jefry Rodriguez has only gone past five innings once in his six starts this season and he has four strikeouts or less in five of them. Jorge Lopez has given up five or more earned runs in two of his last three starts and had four strikeouts or less in each. Plus, I find myself rostering Baltimore players more often lately with some of these younger guys starting to prove themselves. Luke Weaver? Against a weak Cincinnati lineup? Maybe, but he was demoted to the bullpen for a reason so I wouldn’t feel great about it. Plus, he could be chalk in the value tier which would really keep me away. Matt Boyd against the Yankees? Nope. I think people might actually try to use David Hess today as he’s somehow put together four quality starts in a row. But when we look a little deeper at those starts there are a lot of red flags. For example, in those four starts, he has a 2.19 ERA but a 4.79 xFIP and a ridiculously low .197 BABIP. In other words, he’s been very lucky and this success he’s having isn’t sustainable the way he’s pitching. I’ll gladly stack the Royals against him today. I would have some interest in Jeff Brigham of the Marlins as I read up on him quite a bit and liked a lot of what I saw in his minor league data but unfortunately he’s not available in the player pool today. By process of elimination, that leaves us with Reid-Foley. Do I feel great about it? No, but there was some hype about him when he first got called up and I’m not about to write him off after two starts, especially when one of those starts was against the Yankees. Between both Double-A and Triple-A this season he’s 12-5 in 24 starts with a 3.26 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 150 strikeouts in 129.2 innings of work. He’s Toronto’s tenth ranked prospect, according to MLB Pipeline, after being a second round selection in the 2014 draft. It’s a great matchup today, against a weak Marlins lineup in the most pitcher friendly environment in all of baseball. If there were ever a time for him to get back on track this would be it. I think he goes overlooked today with Hess and Weaver potentially getting attention. He’s cheap enough that it’s worth the risk in tournaments, particularly as an SP2 on DraftKings.

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

If you’re new to the article, this is the section where I pick an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher to hit a long ball today. If there's a game at Coors Field, I always exclude them from this list because it's too obvious. So just keep that in mind. Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential.

J.D Martinez, BOS: OF (DK: $5.7K, FD: $5K)

Khris Davis put one in the seats last night to regain the major league lead in home runs at 40 so Martinez will be looking to even things out tonight. Shields is tied for the fourth most home runs allowed in the league at 27 and he’s allowed 12 home runs in his last eight starts. Opposing right-handed hitters have a .224 xISO against him this season. Martinez owns a ridiculous .843 wOBA+ISO over his last 150 at bats and a .344 ISO this season against right-handed pitching. He’s had 48% hard-hits and an average exit velocity of 95.8 mph over the past two weeks.

Travis Shaw, MIL: 2B (DK: $4.4K, FD: $3.8K)

You have to love Shaw have second base eligibility now it’s certainly gives a boost to what is often a difficult position to find any kind of upside. He’ll square off today with Jefry Rodriguez who has significant splits between right and left-handed batters. Against righties, he allows a solid .114 xISO, .279 xwOBA while against lefties he allows a dismal .331 xISO and .433 xwOBA. Granted, it’s a small sample size, so these numbers could even out more over time, but it still tells me I want to attack him with a lefty like Shaw. He has a .653 wOBA+ISO against right-handed pitching and he smashes each of Rodriguez’s pitch types. Against fastballs he has a .363 xISO, against two-seam fastballs he has a .441 xISO, against curveballs he has a .386 xISO, and against changeups he has a .202 xISO.

Matt Adams, STL: 1B (DK: $3.8K, FD: $3.1K)

For the record I really wanted to go Carpenter here but that would have been the third day in a row recommending him which seems kind of weak so I’ll pivot to his teammate instead. Just know that Carpenter is an excellent play today. Admittedly, DeSclafani has been good lately (though I don’t think he’s good enough to warrant his price tag) but his performance against lefties is still a glaring concern. He’s allowed a .258 xISO this season including 2.68 HR/9 and 39.4% hard contact. Adams hasn’t performed well since being traded to the Cardinals but he still has a .251 ISO and 37.5% hard-hits against right-handed pitching this season. In the past two weeks he’s had a 50% hard-hit rate with an average exit velocity of 91.4 miles per hour. He’s making good contact he just hasn’t had the results yet. They will come.

Value Bats

Similar to the home run watch list, in this section I’ll provide an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher who are priced in the value tier. If I can find someone under priced on both sites, I’ll highlight them. But in some cases, it could be site specific.

Brett Phillips, KC: OF (DK: $3.5K, FD: $2.1K)

I had Phillips included in my “loved” player pool yesterday and the optimizer kept sticking him in my lineup but every time it did something just didn’t feel right about it so I’d take him out and re-work things. Naturally, he had a huge night going two for three with a home run, a double, two runs scored, a run batted in, and even a stolen base to really plunge that dagger in me. It’s one thing when the optimizer adds a player you never had interest in to begin with but when it’s someone that you mark as loved and then you still take him out it’s just a fish move. There are always lessons to be learned in DFS no matter how much experience you have. You aren’t going to get it right every night. Okay, lecture over. Phillips is in another good spot again tonight and he’s still dirt cheap. I mentioned earlier I’m not buying this recent David Hess success and from what I’m seeing in chat and on Twitter it would appear that others are which means I’ll once again be heavily exposed to Kansas City tonight. Phillips has a .539 wOBA+ISO and a 1.98 FP/PA against right-handed pitching over his last 150 games. I’ll be marking him as “loved” once again.

Danny Jansen, TOR: C (DK: $3.4K, FD: $2.5K)

I mentioned earlier that I would have interest in the Marlins pitcher today, Jeff Brigham, if he were available in the player pool. That doesn’t take away from the fact that Jansen is simply too cheap for the talent he’s displaying in his short time in the majors. Since his promotion, he’s 12 for 46 with a .205 ISO and .385 wOBA with only 13% strikeouts. He’s been particularly strong against right-handed pitching with a .219 ISO and .392 wOBA. He provides a good combination of value and upside at a position that is always a challenge, especially on DraftKings where you have to play one.

Edurado Nunez, BOS: 3B (DK: $4K, FD: $2.5K)

Nunez is on absolute fire over the past two weeks going 13 for 40 (.333 AVG) with a .282 ISO and .407 wOBA. He’s scored six runs, knocked six runs in, and even displayed some power with three home runs during that span. His season long numbers obviously don’t reflect what we are seeing more recently so it’s anyone’s guess how long this hot streak will last but he should be able to keep it going for at least another day against James Shields. Full disclosure about this recommendation. Value at the corner infield spot today was a bit hard to come by (I like Ryan O’Hearn again!). On FanDuel, Nunez is nice and cheap but it also means using a potentially valueable 3B spot on him which is a position that is typically loaded with power. He’s second base eligible on DraftKings, which I feel good about, but also more expensive. I’ll only end up on Nunez myself if he’s the last person entered into my roster and everything else is exactly the way I want it and he makes the pieces fit (or if he’s part of a stack).

Stacks on Stacks

Your chalk stacks of the day are the Yankees and Red Sox. New York smashes left-handed pitching with a .205 ISO, .341 wOBA, and 116 wRC+ and has an implied total of 5.7 runs. Boston smashes right-handed pitching with a .205 ISO, .352 wOBA, and 120 wRC+. They have an implied total of 5.5 runs. Also, as I mentioned before, I like both offenses in the Minnesota/Texas game. There’s no line or totals yet but I expected them to be high in that ballpark with those two pitchers on the hill. Remember, they are on the DraftKings slate only.

Philadelphia Phillies (vs. Jon Lester)

Holy line movement! Lester is another player that I could see getting some undeserved ownership, simply because of the name value he carries, on a slate that lacks pitching options. The Phillies opened with a 4.1 implied run total that is already up to 4.8 runs just overnight! That movement alone tells you that you’ll want to be on the Phillies side of this game today. Lester has a 4.74 SIERA that is over a run higher than his 3.67 ERA. He has an extremely low 18.6% strikeout rate and 8.4% swinging strike rate. He gets hit really hard by both sides of the plate allowing a .222 xISO, .381 xwOBA to lefties and a .210 xISO, .355 xwOBA to righties. There are a bunch of players in this lineup that are getting my attention today. Roman Quinn has a .250 ISO and .423 wOBA albeit in limited plate appearances. Wilson Ramos has crushed lefties all season with a .250 ISO and .395 wOBA. Rhys Hoskins' power numbers decrease a bit against lefties (.139 ISO) but he still has a solid .341 wOBA and you’re definitely not fading him. Carlos Santana is starting to find his swing again. He’s in the middle of a mini hitting streak that includes a grand slam the other night and he has a .213 ISO and .340 wOBA against lefties this season. Even Jose Bautista, if he cracks the lineup, has a .181 ISO and .327 wOBA and I don’t hate him as part of a stack. This is shaping up to be my highest own team of the afternoon.

Kansas City Royals (vs. David Hess)

I’ve been hinting at this throughout the article today but I’m not buying David Hess’s recent run of success. It’s a small sample size and all the numbers suggest he’s been lucky. I’m expecting regression to hit him hard in the near future. Will that be today? It’s impossible to know for sure but on a slate with very weak pitching options I believe he could carry some ownership. If you like him, I’m not going to talk you out of it, there’s always an argument to be made for almost every player in MLB DFS (just ask @ZeroInDenver who will be trying to talk us all into James Shields against Boston today.) I’m just simply going by what the numbers are telling me. His SIERA and xFIP are both higher than his ERA and the BABIP is extremely low during his four most recent starts. That’s a reciepe for disaster. This Royals team feels like it’s getting better with Ryan O’Hearn (.404 ISO, .492 wOBA), Brian Goodwin (.190 ISO, .351 wOBA), Brett Phillips (.208 ISO), Whit Merrifield (.337 wOBA), and Alex Gordon (.333 wOBA) all on the radar. If Salvador Perez plays he’s obviously an option as well and of course be on the lookout for news of Jorge Soler being activated which I’m expecting any day now. The Royals opened with a healthy 4.8 implied run total.

Baltimore Orioles (vs. Jorge Lopez)

What a time to be alive. For the second day in a row I like both the Royals and the Orioles. In reality, I guess we shouldn’t be too surprised. Both of these teams are bringing up prospects which is improving their lineup quality but also keeping the price down. They also have terrible pitching rotations so it’s only natural when they face each other we’d want exposure to both sides. As an added bonus, it’s going to be near 90 degrees in Kansas City at first pitch with the wind blowing out around 11 miles per hour. This should make for a great hitting environment. Jorge Lopez is 0-3 in his three starts since joining the Royals. He has low strikeout potential and high walks. He doesn’t pitch deep into games (4.2, 5, and 4 innings) which means we’ll get a long look at the Royals bullpen as well which by now you know is the worst in baseball. Cedric Mullins once again appears to be one of my favorite players on the board for the price with a .283 ISO and .414 wOBA against right-handed pitching. I also like Adam Jones (.327 wOBA), Renato Nunez (.325 wOBA), Trey Mancini (.197 ISO, .321 wOBA), Joey Rickard (.191 ISO), and Austin Wynns, if he plays, with a .244 ISO and .387 wOBA. Chris Davis is always a home run threat if you want to play him just understand what you are getting yourself into before taking that leap. He’s cheap though. Baltimore has an excellent implied run total of 4.9 runs today.

The Bullpen Report

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @glandry if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@GP_Landry).