Written by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GP_Landry on Twitter

We’ve got a ten-game slate to talk about tonight. Similar to yesterday, there’s quite a bit of pitching to choose from. It’s not nearly as loaded but I definitely have interest in multiple options in each pricing tier. Implied totals are pretty low across the board, though we are still missing Vegas information from the game in Baltimore, New York, and Houston. Baltimore just announced their starter, who we will talk about later on. We still don’t know who is pitching for Seattle, and honestly, I’m not sure why there is no line on the Red Sox/Yankees as the pitchers have been known. As far as the weather goes, I’m seeing little to no threats of rain. We have hot weather in Philadelphia (81), Atlanta (86), and Texas (91) so be sure to give a boost to the bats in those games. The wind does not appear to be a factor anywhere today. There’s a lot to cover today, so let’s see how this slate is shaping up.  

High Priced Pitching

Carlos Carrasco, CLE (vs. CWS) (DK: $11.1K, FD: $11.2K)

Carrasco is the top pitcher on the board today and, honestly, I don’t think it’s close. His numbers are outstanding this season with a 3.06 SIERA, 28.8% strikeout rate and 15% swinging strikes. He’s doing all this with a very low 5% walk rate and a 1.13 WHIP. More recently, he's only been better with a 2.64 SIERA and 31.7% strikeouts with a massive 19.2% swinging strike rate in the past two weeks. He’s maintained his same 5% walk rate and lowered his WHIP to 1.00 during that span. Typically known as a tournament only player who lacks consistency, he’s been almost the opposite since the beginning of August. In nine starts, he has a 2.54 ERA (2.24 xFIP) with 78 strikeouts to only 10 walks in 60.1 innings pitched. He’s gone at least 6.1 innings in every one of those starts except for one and he’s had eight strikeouts or more six times. He’s doing all this despite an above average BABIP of .322. Really impressive to say the least. Even better about him today is the matchup against the White Sox who have one of the highest strikeout rates against right-handed pitching in all of baseball. This season, they are striking out 25.6% of the time with a low .312 wOBA, 98 wRC+, and only 32.4% hard-hits. They do have some power with a .177 ISO but considering Carrasco is allowing a below average xISO and xwOBA to both sides of the plate, I’m really not concerned with this lineup. Cleveland is the largest favorite on the board today at -290 and the White Sox have an implied total of only 3.1 runs. For the first time all season, Carrasco will be my SP1 in cash games. He remains an elite tournament play as well.  

Robbie Ray, ARI (vs. CHC) (DK: $9.2K, FD: $8.7K)

In my opinion, Ray makes the most sense as a tournament option. I considered Walker Buehler, who is pitching out of his mind right now, but considering he’s the most expensive pitcher on DraftKings and gets a tough draw against the Rockies, I really don’t see myself going there. He makes more sense at a much cheaper price on FanDuel if you wanted some exposure to him. Cole Hamels is also in the picture but Arizona is tough team on left-handed pitching. Hamels could certainly succeed in this spot but I don’t like him as much as Ray. Severino against the Red Sox? You could but I won’t. Price against the Yankees, in Yankee Stadium, let’s just say we’ll talk about that one later on, but definitely don’t use him. That leaves Ray, who has as much of a ceiling as any of these guys despite a lower floor. If you recall, earlier in the week, we talked about Patrick Corbin when he faced the Cubs and I was actually surprised to learn how poorly the Cubs have been against left-handed pitching this season. They have a disappointing .136 ISO, .315 wOBA, and 31.2% hard-hits. Even more discouraging is their .323 BABIP, which tells us they’ve been a bit lucky up to this point and are still producing at a below average rate. 

Similar to Carrasco, Ray has a reputation for being wildly inconsistent and tough to trust as anything more than a tournament option, so be sure to use caution here. But there is still plenty to be optimistic about. His splits between both sides of the plate are strong. He has a 2.44 xFIP with 37.1% strikeouts and 5.7% walks against left-handed hitters. They have just a .136 xISO and .253 xwOBA against him. The WHIP is also an elite 0.85. Against righties, he has a 3.95 xFIP with 30.7% strikeouts. They have a low .164 xISO and .332 wOBA against him. The one red flag that’s standing out to me is his 13.1% walk rate against right-handed hitters, which obviously isn’t ideal. I’m fine with taking that risk though considering how many positives he has. Vegas seems to agree for the most part as the Diamondbacks are -113 favorites. The Cubs have an implied total currently at four runs, which I’m more than comfortable with. Ray looks like a great value for tournaments with a high ceiling and a lower price tag compared to some other viable options. There’s definitely some risk but I like the potential reward more.  

Value Pitching

Chris Archer, PIT (vs. KC) (DK: $7.7K, FD: $7.8K)

I never feel super confident about rostering Archer but I’m seeing a lot to like about him more recently. On the surface, admittedly, things look pretty ugly. Since joining the Pirates, he’s 1-3 in with a 5.49 ERA. But if we look a little deeper, we’ll start to see the light at the end of the tunnel. For starters, he’s faced some pretty tough teams including the Braves (twice), the Brewers (twice), and also the Rockies in Coors Field. Five of his eight starts have been on the road, which obviously isn’t optimal. Despite all that, he has a 3.87 xFIP which is nearly two full runs lower than his ERA. He has 43 strikeouts in 39.1 innings of work which shows off his upside. His BABIP is also an above average .327 further indicating he’s pitched a lot better than what has actually happened. He gets a good matchup tonight against Kansas City. The Royals have certainly flashed improvements in recent weeks but they are absolutely not a team to avoid. They have a .155 ISO and .309 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. The Pirates are massive -216 favorites after opening at -190. The Royals implied total has dropped from 3.4 runs to 3.2 runs. Archer is in play as an SP2 in cash on DraftKings and as a tournament option on both sites today.

Robbie Erlin, SD (vs. SFG) (DK: $4.6K, FD: $5.8K)

I told you I will continue to invest in any pitcher who takes the hill against the Giants the rest of the way. Lucchesi wasn’t perfect last night from a fantasy production standpoint but he was pretty good when you factor in the price. The seven hits he allowed hurt him a bit on DraftKings but the eight strikeouts were excellent. Tonight we get Robbie Erlin, who has been effective since joining the Padres rotation at the beginning of August. He’s 2-4 with a 5.49 ERA, which doesn’t sound very good but he has a 3.69 xFIP and a .362 BABIP, which means we should expect some positive regression. His 31 strikeouts to just four walks is solid, and similar to Archer, he hasn’t had the most favorable schedule during this stretch. He has also pitched five of his eight starts on the road. He’s faced the Cubs, Brewers, Rockies (twice, once at Coors), Dodgers, Reds (at Great American Ballpark), and the Rangers. Those are some powerful offenses. Today he gets the lowly Giants and their .128 ISO, .276 wOBA, and 73 wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season. 

Erlin won’t blow you away with his numbers but he also doesn’t have any glaring red flags that I feel could be exploited either. He has a 3.86 SIERA with 20.5% strikeouts and only 2.5% walks. The WHIP is very low at 1.14 and he forces 46% groundballs. Opposing lefties have a .173 xISO and .284 xwOBA while opposing righties have a .177 xISO and .314 xwOBA against him this season. He won’t break the slate but he’s got more than enough, from a statistical standpoint and his matchup today, to pay off and possibly exceed his low salary expectations. The Padres are -141 favorites and the Giants have a low 3.5 implied run total. I’m fine with Erlin as an SP2 in cash today and you could use him as a punt tournament option (preferably on a two-pitcher site) as well.  

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

If you’re new to the article, this is the section where I pick an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher to hit a long ball today. If there's a game at Coors Field, I always exclude them from this list because it's too obvious. So just keep that in mind. Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential.

Giancarlo Stanton, NYY: OF (DK: $4.8K, FD: $4.6K)

I'm going to go into greater detail about David Price's history at Yankee Stadium for those of you who aren't aware of it. For now, let's stick with the present. Price allows a .189 xISO to right-handed hitters and his most often used pitch is a two-seam fastball (32% of the time). Giancarlo Stanton has a 57.1% hard-hit rate against left-handed pitching this season and a 1.308 xISO against two-seam fastballs (no that's not a typo). Put the two together and what do you get? A bomb.

Eugenio Suarez, CIN: 3B (DK: $4.6K, FD: $3.6K)

Gio Gonzalez has a 4.71 xFIP, 1.61 WHIP, and only 19% strikeouts against right-handed hitters this season. Suarez has a .293 ISO and .440 wOBA against left-handed pitching. Gonzalez throws a two-seam fastball and changeup most often as they make up about 50% of his pitches. Suarez has a .512 xISO against two-seam fastballs and a .677 xISO against changeups this year.

Jose Ramirez, CLE: 2B/3B (DK: $5.8K, FD: $4.9K)

I actually forgot that Ramirez has second base eligibility now on DraftKings. He's in a great spot today against Dylan Covey, who's allowing a .248 ISO over his last 20 starts and a .214 xISO this season to left-handed hitters. Ramirez has a ridiculous .328 ISO and .420 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. He's expensive but his numbers justify the price if you can make it work.

Value Bats

Similar to the home run watch list, in this section I’ll provide an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher who are priced in the value tier. If I can find someone under priced on both sites, I’ll highlight them. But in some cases, it could be site specific.

David Bote, CHC: 3B (DK: $3.4K, FD: $2.4K)

I do like Robbie Ray today as a whole but Bote is standing out as a value with his success against left-handed pitching. The sample size against lefties is still small but it's hard to ignore the results. He has a .234 ISO, .371 wOBA, and 45.2% hard-hit rate against them this season.

Steven Souza Jr, ARI: OF (DK: $3.5K, FD: $2.3K)

I don't like him as much as Ray today but Hamels is obviously a talented pitcher. This is another situation where we have solid value even in a less than ideal matchup. Souza is underpriced when you consider his .183 ISO, .326 wOBA, and 61.8% hard-hit rate. Talented or not, Hamels is allowing a .208 xISO and .353 xwOBA to right-handed hitters this season. If you need a salary saver today, you could definitely do worse than this.

Kike Hernandez, LAD: 2B/OF (DK: $4K, FD: $2.3K)

Hernandez against a lefty at nearly minimum salary on FanDuel is really hard to ignore. I don't know why FanDuel hates this guy so much but they just never raise his price. Although he's surprisingly performing better against right-handed pitching this season, he still has plenty of upside with a .181 ISO and 35.3% hard-hit rate against lefties. He has a career .227 ISO, .355 wOBA, and 36.2% hard-hit rate against left-handed pitching.

Stacks on Stacks

Milwaukee Brewers (vs. Matt Harvey)

The Brew Crew was a letdown last night against the Reds' bullpen after coming through the night before. I’m going to stick with them as they get another favorable matchup today and have an implied total of over five runs yet again. I don’t disagree that Harvey has been pitching better, but the fact remains that he struggles with left-handed hitters and this Brewers' lineup is full of left-handed power that can really make his life difficult. This season he has a 4.68 xFIP with only 19.4% strikeouts against lefties. He’s also allowing 42% hard contact and 1.99 HR/9. They have a .253 xISO and .352 xwOBA against him this year. This puts Yelich at the top of my list with his .268 ISO and .410 wOBA. Granderson (.206 ISO, .358 wOBA), Moustakas (.236 ISO, .340 wOBA), and Thames (.266 ISO, .338 wOBA) are all priorities as well. Travis Shaw was hit by a pitch last night in the right knee and had to leave the game. Reports are that he avoided major injury and this is a day-to-day situation. If he’s in the lineup tonight, I like him a lot. Outside of that group, Aguilar, Cain, Santana, and Broxton are all on the radar depending on who makes the lineup. 

Toronto Blue Jays (vs. Jimmy Yacabonis)

I’m going back to the Blue Jays as well today with their favorable matchup against Jimmy Yacabonis and the Baltimore Orioles. Yacabonis has made four starts this season and was ineffective going 0-2 with a 7.41 ERA (4.90 xFIP), and 15 strikeouts in 14 innings pitched. More recently, he’s been used as a reliever out of the bullpen where he’s been better but far from good. Most notably about him is he never went past five innings in any of his starts, so I think we are looking at four to five innings out of him at best and then an extended look at a really poor Baltimore bullpen. 

This season, the Orioles relievers have a 4.71 xFIP, with only 20.2% strikeouts. They have the highest walk rate of any bullpen in the league at 11.1% and they are tied with Kansas City for the highest WHIP at 1.51. This clearly puts the Blue Jays in play today. Similar to yesterday, we have a group of veterans who continue to get the job done, led by Smoak (.257 ISO, .373 wOBA), Morales (.229 ISO, .372 wOBA), Gruchuk (.268 ISO, .345 wOBA), and Hernandez (.213 ISO, .328 wOBA). Then we have the new guys who have been killing it since joining the big club. Tellez (.385 ISO, .549 wOBA), Smith Jr (.244 ISO, .380 wOBA), McKinney (.182 ISO, .351 wOBA), and Jansen (.212 ISO, .347 wOBA). Diaz is standing out to me as well. He’s a veteran and I wouldn’t quite put him in that group I already mentioned but he’s in play with his .197 ISO and .327 wOBA. We currently don’t have a line on this game from Vegas as it was only announced a little while ago that Yacabonis would be pitching. I expect Toronto to be close to, if not over, five runs when we see the totals come out.

New York Yankees (vs David Price)

I’m saving the best for last and that really stings because I’m from Boston and a big time Red Sox fan. Let’s do a little math so you guys can see why I like the Yankees so much tonight. Ready? David Price + Yankee Stadium = complete ______ disaster (you can fill in the blank with whatever negative language you like). I pulled all of Price’s game logs since he joined Boston, when pitching at Yankee Stadium and here are the highlights. He’s 0-5 in five starts with an 11.45 ERA (5.50 xFIP). He’s allowed six earned runs or more in four of those five starts and at least two home runs in three straight. His strikeout rate (5.4 K/9) drops dramatically and his 4.27 HR/9 is horrendous. In his last start, on Sunday Night baseball, back on July 1st, he lasted 3.1 innings allowing eight earned runs (including a whopping five home runs) and only three strikeouts. I honestly don’t know what to say. Every time I think Price is finding a rhythm, he goes into this park and gets embarrassed. We’ll see what happens tonight but you have to be on the New York side based on history. In addition to Price’s poor results, the Yankees got some good news yesterday with the return of Aaron Judge. He’s obviously on the radar. He’s not as high as Stanton, however, with his ridiculous .331 ISO, .434 wOBA, and 57.1% hard-hit rate. Torres, McCutchen, Hicks, Andujar, Sanchez, and Voit are all in play. Gregorius is certainly viable as well, though I prefer to avoid the lefty against lefty matchup if possible. For added bad karma on the Boston side tonight, there’s a story here on the news this morning about the Red Sox “2018 American League East Division Champions” banner falling off the delivery truck on its way to Fenway Park and being found by some random fans walking on the road. Here’s a link to the story. That can’t lead to good things right? You just can’t make this stuff up. Yankees by a million tonight.       

The Bullpen Report

Congratulations to the winner's of yesterday's freeroll!

• 1st Place: DezXFactorBryant: 153.85

• 2nd Place: jfugate2332: 142.25

• 3rd Place: jdc2016: 140.70

Be sure to send a DM to @LineStarApp to claim your prize!

Don’t forget, we are still hosting a daily (weekday) freeroll on DraftKings!

• 1st Place: $10 via PayPal

• 2nd & 3rd Places: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium, a t-shirt, or a coffee mug

• Bonus: If you place 1st, 2nd or 3rd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

Here’s the link for today’s contest!

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @glandry if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@GP_Landry).