Written by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GP_Landry on Twitter

This is a fun slate. Pitching is crazy loaded tonight. In my opinion, you can make an argument for any pitcher over $9K on DraftKings (over $8.8K on FanDuel) and then there’s a few options in the mid-tier and one incredible option in the value tier. As usual, I will highlight the guys who are standing out to me but I definitely encourage you to do your own research today and stick to whomever you see fit. Just because someone doesn’t make the newsletter today doesn’t mean I don’t like them as there are a lot of good options. You’d think, with all the strong pitching, we’d have trouble finding bats but that’s not the case either. The talent on the mound tonight drops off a cliff pretty quickly and it’s a big slate, so we should still be able to find more than enough offense for our rosters tonight. Couple of things to note. First, the Red Sox and Yankees are playing at 7:05 tonight but they are not on the main slate today. They were originally scheduled to play at 1:05 but it is pouring here in Boston right now (I’m sitting here watching my pool overflow, not kidding) so they pushed the start time back. Surprisingly, that’s really the only game with any major weather issues today, and since it doesn’t impact the main slate, we don’t need to worry about it. We’ve got a lot to talk about today so let’s get to it.

High Priced Pitching

Stephen Strasburg, WAS (@MIA) (DK: $10.2K, FD: $11K)

There is so much to like at pitcher today, particularly in this top-tier. When you factor in all the data, the price, and the matchups today, this is where I keep landing. Strasburg finally looks healthy for what might be the first time all season. He had put together a couple of good starts at the start of this month, and I was trying not to get my hopes up, but then he fully boosted my confidence when he threw seven innings of one-run ball with zero walks and nine strikeouts in a tough division game on the road against Philadelphia. I love watching Strasburg pitch, so I’m excited to hopefully get a few more opportunities as the Nationals close out a disappointing season. For me, when factoring in pricing today, it came down to a choice between Strasburg and Nola and I definitely wouldn’t argue with you either way. On FanDuel, they are only $300 apart with Strasburg surprisingly being more expensive. I had Nola pegged quite a bit higher than his price today on FanDuel. On DraftKings, Strasburg is $700 cheaper and feels a bit more like the obvious choice in that case, particularly in cash games. The matchup, of course, is what stands out to me. It’s the best pitcher’s park in baseball against one of the worst offenses in baseball. It’s really difficult to pass that up today. Despite battling health issues, Strasburg has still put up excellent numbers when he’s been on the hill. He has a 3.87 ERA and a 3.30 SIERA with 28.1% strikeouts and 12% swinging strikes. In the last two weeks, where it really seems like he’s past the health issues, these numbers have looked even better with a 2.13 ERA and a 3.44 SIERA with 27.8% strikeouts and 13.2% swinging strikes. Washington opened as -165 favorites and that has now increased to a comfortable -184. The Marlins have a very low implied total of 3.2 runs. I like him for cash games and tournaments today.

Kyle Freeland, COL (@LAD) (DK: $9.5K, FD: $8.8K)

Here’s my less obvious choice of the day. I could have talked about Kluber, who’s in a great spot against the strikeout happy White Sox, or Nola who’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season, or even Snell, who despite pitching in a bad park tonight, is interesting against a left-handed heavy team. At this point in the MLB season, you don’t need me to tell you all those guys are in play. So instead, I’m going to use this space to make an argument for someone who I don’t think will get nearly as much attention as he should. At first glance, Freeland doesn’t stand out among the aforementioned Kluber, Snell, and Nola along with Kershaw or Strasburg, but when you compare the stats side by side, you can clearly see, especially recently, he belongs in the conversation with this group.

Since the All-Star break, Freeland has been on fire, going 7-1 in eleven starts with a 2.69 ERA (3.88 xFIP) and 67 strikeouts in 67 innings pitched. He’s allowed only 20 earned runs during that span (just one game over three earned runs) and he’s gone at least six innings in nine of those eleven starts. He’s won four straight decisions and hasn’t lost a game since August 1st. Pretty impressive right? It gets better. He’s faced the Dodgers twice in this time frame and he’s owned them. On August 11th, he went seven innings allowing six hits, two earned runs, and had ten strikeouts. On September 8th, he went six innings allowing four hits and one earned run while striking out eight. As an added bonus, both of those games were at Coors Field. Now, with all that said, this doesn’t come without risk. First, the walks are concerning. 26 walks in 67 innings equals a 3.49 BB/9 rate. That’s much too high for someone we are making an argument to be in the “elite” category. Second, this is the third time in just over a month he’ll see this team and the second time in ten days. Typically, the rule of thumb is when a pitcher faces a lineup more than once in a short time frame, the edge goes to the batters the second time around. I don’t completely buy that but it’s still worth noting. Last, and this one is very strange, he’s better at home. I didn’t think that was possible but the numbers confirm it. He has a 4.31 xFIP, 1.32 WHIP, and 19.2% strikeouts on the road compared to a 3.96 xFIP, 1.12 WHIP, and 23% strikeouts at Coors Field. I can’t explain that one and it might be the strangest stat about a player I’ve come across all season.

When you put all this together, we have a player who has a lower floor than usual in this spot but still an excellent ceiling. He’s also quite a bit cheaper than the other players in this group. I wouldn’t go here in cash today but if you wanted to roll the dice on tournaments, he has the skill set to match the fantasy productivity of the bigger names today and he’ll give you some pretty significant savings that you can invest in the rest of your lineup.

Value Pitching

Joey Lucchesi, SD (@SFG) (DK: $7.6K, FD: $7.5K)

Shocking I know. I’m choosing a pitcher facing the Giants. Nobody saw that coming right? Can’t help it. I know Marquez was a big time let down on Saturday but if you look at his line from that night, he actually didn’t pitch poorly, it was just much lower than expectations relative to his price. Six innings and three earned runs allowed is nothing to be upset about. We were just looking for a few less hits and a few more strikeouts. The fact remains that this Giants offense is really bad right now and they’ve scored more than three runs just twice in their last 15 games. This lack of ability to score instantly raises the floor of anyone who is going up against them. Lucchesi has a few more starts left to close the door on what’s been a very promising start to his career. In 115.1 innings pitched this season, he has a 3.67 ERA, which is very closely in line with his 3.77 SIERA. His strikeout rate is impressive at 25.4% and he’s managing to force 45.8% groundballs. In the past month, those numbers are trending in the right direction, with a 3.55 SIERA, 26.4% strikeouts, and 12% swinging strikes. The WHIP is at 1.15 though the groundball rate has dropped to 37.9%. What’s encouraging is there are very few signs of this not being sustainable. As I mentioned before, the ERA and SIERA are nearly identical and the BABIP is right around league average. The big red flag is the hard contact rate, which is at a whopping 51.7% this season. But so far, he’s been able to avoid that causing too much damage. The Padres are -140 favorites and the Giants have an implied total of just 3.2 runs. Lucchesi is on the radar for both cash and tournaments today as an SP2 on DraftKings and he’s a solid tournament option on FanDuel if you’re looking to pay down at pitcher.

Josh James, HOU (vs. SEA) (DK: $4K, FD: $5.5K)

Here's the monster. Way too much talent for this price tag even if it is a poor matchup. He’s made three appearances since being called up, one start and two as a reliever. He has a 2.49 xFIP with a ridiculous 17 strikeouts to just four walks in 10.2 innings. In his lone start, he went five innings allowing three hits, three earned runs and striking out nine against the Angels. If you haven’t figured it out yet, the upside with this kid is off the charts. None of this should come as a surprise either as he was equally dominant during his time in the minors. In 17 starts in Triple-A he had a 3.40 ERA (3.29 xFIP) with 133 strikeouts in 92.2 innings (12.92 K/9) and a 1.09 WHIP. The only real red flag I’m seeing currently is the walks. He had a 10.3% walk rate in Triple-A and currently has a 9.5% walk rate in his limited time in the majors. So far, this hasn’t resulted in any significant damage but it’s definitely something to monitor. Either way, the ceiling here is massive, especially when you factor in the price tags on both sites. The Astros are -175 favorites and the Mariners have an implied total of 3.7 runs. He’ll be the chalk SP2 at $4K on DraftKings but this is one of those situations where I would just take the free square and move on. He’s in play for tournaments on both sites.

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

If you’re new to the article, this is the section where I pick an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher to hit a long ball today. If there's a game at Coors Field, I always exclude them from this list because it's too obvious. So just keep that in mind. Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential.

Alex Bregman, HOU: 3B/SS (DK: $5K, FD: $4.6K)

Bregman profiles really well against Leake who allows a .207 xISO against right-handed hitters this season. He throws a sinker, cutter, and slider most often. Bregman smashes each pitch type with a .229 xISO against sinkers, a .228 xISO against cutters, and a .181 xISO against sliders.

Travis Shaw, MIL: 2B/3B (DK: $4.6, FD; $4K)

Once again, I'm on the Brewers tonight and Shaw is standing out (other than the red-hot Yelich). He has a .289 ISO and .373 wOBA with 42.5% hard-hits against right-handed pitching this season. Lorenzen throws a two-seam fastball 50% of the time to left-handed hitters and Shaw crushes that pitch with a .397 xISO and .455 xwOBA.

Randal Grichuk, TOR: OF (DK: $4.7K, FD: $3.5K)

We can't properly celebrate Dylan Bundy day without recommending a home run against him. Grichuk is a reverse splits hitter with significantly more power against right-handed pitching, which sets up really well against the batting practice pitcher that is Bundy. He allows a .192 xISO to right-handed hitters and Grichuk has a .271 ISO and 37.6% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Value Bats

Similar to the home run watch list, in this section I’ll provide an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher who are priced in the value tier. If I can find someone under priced on both sites, I’ll highlight them. But in some cases, it could be site specific.

Franmil Reyes, SD: OF (DK: $3.3K, FD: $3.3K)

From the home run watch list yesterday to the value bat list today. He didn't hit a long ball last night but he still went 1 for 3 with a walk and his price dropped today. He's now a very solid value and is facing another left-handed pitcher tonight. Holland, surprisingly, has pitched very well this season compared to expectations but he still allows a .215 xISO and .341 xwOBA to right-handed hitters. Reyes should bat second in the order and carries a .721 wOBA+ISO against left-handed pitching into this matchup. He's a steal at this price on DraftKings.

Nick Hundley, SFG: C (DK: $3.5K, FD: $2.7K)

I like Lucchesi a lot today but that doesn't mean Hundley can't have a solid fantasy day on his own. He's excellent against left-handed pitching with a 2.20 FP/PA and .641 wOBA+ISO over this last 150 games. He also has a very strong 96.7 miles per hour average exit velocity over the past two weeks. Lucchesi allows a .240 xISO and .354 xwOBA to right-handed hitters. If I don't end up playing him today then there is a very good chance Hundley ends up in my lineup instead.

Ehire Adrianza, MIN: 3B/SS (DK: $3.1K, FD: $2.3K)

Inconsistent and often hitting from the bottom of the order keeps his price down, but Adrianza has flashed upside from time to time throughout the season and this sets up as a nice spot if you're looking for a tournament salary saver today. He has a respectable 1.84 FP/PA and a .467 wOBA+ISO against left-handed pitching over his last 150 games. Norris is allowing a .271 xISO and .387 xwOBA against right-handed hitters this season. Adrianza also brings stolen base upside to the table. He's a pure punt play, but if he has a good night, he'd leave you in a really good position with all the money he'll save you.

Stacks on Stacks

The Rays are once against the chalk stack of the night despite disappointing yesterday. They opened with the highest implied total on the board at 5.6 and have already gone up to 5.7 runs. They get another great matchup tonight in a very hitter friendly environment. They are hard to ignore and will definitely be popular.

Cleveland Indians (vs. Carlos Rodon)

Rodon has flashed moments of really strong performances but everything in his numbers tell us he is no where near as good as what is happening out on the field. He’s 3-2 in his last eight starts with a 2.94 ERA but those numbers are borderline miraculous when you consider his 5.66 xFIP and .206 BABIP. He has just 35 strikeouts with 27 walks in 52 innings pitched during that span. That amounts to an ugly 6.06 K/9 and 4.67 BB/9. I’m not buying the success and this pending regression is coming like a freight train. A blow up game is inevitable and I want to be on the bats when it happens.

Today would be the perfect spot on the road against a strong Cleveland lineup. Lindor (.214 ISO, .426 wOBA) and Ramirez (.217 ISO, .361 wOBA) are the obvious choices here. Brandon Guyer is one of my favorites against a lefty as he’s always super cheap but has an awesome .218 ISO and .359 wOBA. The newest member of the Indians, Josh Donaldson, appears healthy and he’s always crushed left-handed pitching. He currently owns a .204 ISO and .352 wOBA in 49 at-bats against them this season. Yan Gomes will fill a difficult catcher spot and has a solid .208 ISO and .367 wOBA. We also have Melky Cabrera (.196 ISO, .409 wOBA) and Edwin Encarnacion (.180 ISO, .324 wOBA). There’s very little in this lineup that I don’t like today. The Indians opened with an implied total of 4.9 runs that is up to five as of this writing.

Milwaukee Brewers (vs. Michael Lorenzen)

New rule: lock button every time Yelich faces the Reds. Back on August 29th, he had a career night against Cincinnati going 6 for 6 and completing the cycle. He went on to hit three home runs and drive in nine during that series. So what does he do when the Brewers and Reds opened up another series last night? Hits for the cycle again of course. This time it only took four at-bats but he became the first player to ever hit for the cycle twice in the same season against the same team. In all seriousness, this does shape up as another fantastic spot for the Brewers who will be up against Michael Lorenzen making a spot start for the Reds. He’s been pretty ineffective as a reliever this year with a 4.43 xFIP and only 49 strikeouts in 67.1 innings. He has a 6.55 K/9 and a 3.88 BB/9 so far this season. The longest he’s pitched all year is 4.1 innings, so I can’t imagine he’ll go very deep into this game. The Reds bullpen is nothing to shy away from. In the past month, they have a 4.66 xFIP, 1.47 WHIP, and a 36% hard contact rate.

The entire Milwaukee lineup is in play here, and looking at Lorenzen’s splits, there are weaknesses to both sides of the plate. Against left-handed hitters, he has a 20% strikeout rate with 14.6% walks and a 1.81 WHIP. Against right-handed hitters, he has a 14.7% strikeout rate with 6.4% walks and a 1.06 WHIP. The xFIP to both sides of the plate is pretty similar. Based on this, I would prioritize lefties because of that WHIP, but honestly, anyone is fine if it helps your lineup construction. Yelich will be mega chalk but it’s likely chalk that’s worth eating. He’s legitimately inserted himself into the MVP conversation at this point. Granderson, Shaw, Moustakas, and Thames are all high on my list as well. Aguilar and Cain were both disappointing in my Brewers stack last night but I’ll be going right back to the well again today. Milwaukee has an implied total of 5.3 runs.

Toronto Blue Jays (vs. Dylan Bundy)

Bundy burned me against Oakland his last time out. He decided he was going to be a competent pitcher for a change and fired six strong innings allowing six hits, two earned runs and picking up eight strikeouts. Ceiling has never been the issue with Bundy, as he has really strong strikeout abilities. Home runs are his achilles heel, and despite the strong start against Oakland, he still managed to allow a home run, which makes it 12 straight starts. He’s actually allowed 20 home runs in those 12 starts, so only giving up one bomb is an improvement for him. Today, he’ll take on the Blue Jays for the fourth time this season. He had one good start against them way back in April where he went seven innings and struck out ten. His last two starts, however, he allowed five earned runs in five innings with only three strikeouts and then seven earned runs in only four innings with three strikeouts. Toronto has been sellers this year so they are missing a few pieces that we had earlier in the season like Granderson (I guess we can’t count Donaldson since he never really played this year anyway). Still, there’s more than enough to work with here, and anytime I have an opportunity to stack against Bundy, I’m interested. We’ve seen the ceiling, like his last game against Oakland, but if he’s off we are talking a multiple home-run, slate breaking kind of performance. We’ll start with the young guns on this team who have all been really good in their limited time so far. Tellez has a .435 ISO and .582 wOBA in 23 at-bats, Smith Jr. has a .238 ISO and .377 wOBA in 42 at-bats, McKinney has a .189 ISO and .353 wOBA in 74 at-bats, and Danny Jansen has a .212 ISO and .347 wOBA in 52 at-bats. Not bad for a group of guys who were all late season call ups. We also have the regulars including Smoak, Morales, Grichuk, and Hernandez. For the most part, I feel pretty comfortable stacking this lineup however you want given the matchup and how many players I have interest in. Bundy allows a .273 xISO and .402 xwOBA to lefties and a .192 xISO and .290 xwOBA to righties, so based on that, the lefties would be the priority for me.

The Bullpen Report

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Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @glandry if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@GP_Landry).