Written by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GP_Landry on Twitter

Football is in full swing, NBA and NHL are right around the corner, and we have exactly two weeks left in the MLB regular season (assuming you count the one game currently scheduled on October 1st). It's a great time of the year to be a fantasy sports player. The American League playoff picture is pretty much set at this point with the east and central both already clinched and Astros having a comfortable 4.5 game lead on the Athletics in the west. The Wild Card is all but finished as well, with Oakland up seven games on the Tampa Bay Rays. The National League is not nearly as clear. Atlanta looks to have the east under control but the central is heating up with the Brewers just 2.5 games behind the Cubs and we have a dead heat in the west with the Rockies and Dodgers both tied (and starting a series tonight). Arizona's not dead yet either, 4.5 games back in that division. The Wild Card is also incredibly close with the Brewers currently 2.5 games up on the Dodgers/Rockies and then the Cardinals only a game back of them. I wouldn't put a ton of weight on this as "tanking" isn't really a thing in baseball (or not nearly as much as it is in other sports) but if you were trying to choose between a couple of players for your rosters, I would tend to lean toward the one that still has something to play for when applicable. Tonight brings us a twelve-game slate with a solid trio of top-tier pitchers to choose from, a pretty good mix of options from the mid-tier, and then it gets a bit sketchy in the value-tier (shocking). There should be more than enough places for offense as well, with some of this weak pitching. It's the home stretch. Let's get to work!

High Priced Pitching

Patrick Corbin, ARI (@CHC) (DK: $11.9K, FD: $9.1K)

This is shaping up to be a good spot to get some low owned Patrick Corbin in a matchup that's actually better than you think. My initial reaction when I simply looked at the matchups on the slate was to avoid the Cubs and go Wheeler against the Phillies and Folynewicz against the Cardinals. After diving into some of the numbers, I realized the Cubs have actually struggled quite a bit with left-handed pitching this season including a low .139 ISO and .315 wOBA. They also strikeout 22.8% of the time. I assume most people will see Corbin's price, going up against the Cubs, and pivot to Foltynewicz and Wheeler for less money like I initially thought (on DraftKings). This should mean Corbin gets relatively ignored by the field and gives us a nice edge, assuming you can find the bats to build around him at this price tag (again on DraftKings Corbin is a steal today on FanDuel and will likely be popular). His numbers are hard to pass up with the highest strikeout rate (31.1%) and swinging strike rate (15.4%) on the slate by a fairly wide margin. To put it in perspective, Ryu is the next closest strikeout rate at 28.5% and Gray is the next closest swinging strike rate at 12.8%. Corbin has been even better more recently with a 2.53 SIERA, 32.8% strikeouts, and 17.4% swinging strikes over the last month. He also has a very low 4.1% walk rate, a 1.02 WHIP, and an 86.3% LOB%. Arizona is a -126 and the Cubs have an implied total that opened at 3.7 runs and is down to 3.6 runs already. Corbin is my top option on the board today.

Zack Wheeler, NYM (@PHI) (DK: $10.5K, FD: $9.8K)

The one thing holding me back here slightly is this game being in Citizens Bank Park. It's hard to ignore his success recently though, and when comparing him side by side with Folynewicz, I'm leaning this way. In addition to Marquez (who was a huge let down Saturday night) Wheeler has been one of the best pitchers in all of baseball since the All-Star break. He's 8-1 in ten starts with a ridiculous 1.32 ERA and a 3.15 xFIP. He has sixty-nine strikeouts to just twelve walks and only ten earned runs in his last 68 innings of work. That kind of production is flat out insanity. I'm equally impressed by his splits against both sides of the plate. Against lefties, he has a 3.96 xFIP with 25.3% strikeouts while allowing an average 30.1% hard contact rate. Against righties, it's even better, with a 3.44 xFIP with 23.9% strikeouts while allowing just 19.8% hard contact. Now, the Phillies are still technically alive even if their hopes are slowly fading. They have a strong .180 ISO and .323 wOBA and can certainly do some damage, especially in this park. They also strikeout 24.5% of the time against right-handed pitching, which should give Wheeler a nice boost. As is usually the case, despite being a stud, he's an underdog because the Mets infamously provide zero run support for their star pitchers. I actually do like the pitcher on the other side of this game, which we'll talk about next. You can go here in cash if you want based on the numbers even with the risk of him not picking up the win. I prefer him in tournaments today.

Value Pitching

Jake Arrieta, PHI (vs. NYM) (DK: $7.8K, FD: $7.8K)

Is Jake Arrieta circa 2015 back? No, definitely not. In fact, not even close. But there are some positives to take away from his pitching performances over the last 30 days. For starters, his 3.59 SIERA is nearly two runs lower than his 5.27 ERA, suggesting he's pitched much better than what we've seen on the field. He's had increased upside with a 26.9% strikeout rate including an eleven strikeout effort two weeks ago and a seven strikeout performance his last time out. He's also forcing 49.3% groundballs and only allowing 27% hard contact. He's struggled a bit with lefties, allowing a .196 xISO and .347 xwOBA ,so guys like Nimmo and Conforto are a bit concerning. He's solid at limiting righties, only allowing a .128 xISO and .304 xwOBA. The Mets are not what I would consider to be a dangerous team, even with the park upgrade today. On the season, they have a .168 ISO and .313 wOBA with 22.1% strikeouts against right-handed pitching. Arrieta faced them once already this season, way back on May 11th, and was successful going 7.1 innings allowing five hits and zero earned runs with five strikeouts. He's volatile, no question, and definitely tough to trust in cash games, but he's in strong consideration as an SP2 in tournaments today. The Phillies are -122 favorites and the Mets implied total is low at 3.6 runs.

Erick Fedde, WAS (@MIA) (DK: $5.3K, FD: $6.2K)

Fedde is slowly starting to show us why the Nationals drafted him 18th overall back in 2014. After some time on the disabled list, he seems to have either gotten healthy or corrected something because he's put together his best two starts of the season in back to back games. On September 4th, he went five innings, allowing four hits, four earned runs and picking up seven strikeouts in a no decision. On September 11th, he went 5.2 innings allowing just two hits and zero earned runs with nine strikeouts while picking up the win in a tough matchup on the road in Philadelphia. Today, he gets arguably his best matchup of all, on the road in pitcher friendly Marlins Park, to take on a Miami lineup that has been thinking about playing golf since sometime in July. The Marlins continue to be absolutely brutal against right-handed pitching, with a .118 ISO and .287 wOBA while striking out 22.8% of the time. Fedde is quietly putting together a strong rookie campaign. In 38.2 innings this season, he has a 3.87 SIERA, which is significantly lower than his 5.12 ERA. His opponents have a .343 BABIP against him. The high ERA but low SIERA and the high BABIP all tell us he's pitching much better than what the results are showing at this point. He's also managed 21.6% strikeouts and a 54% groundball rate, which are both very solid. Given his recent outings, the matchup today, and all his advanced metrics indicating positive regression, I really like this spot for Fedde. He's underpriced, in my opinion, for how this all lines up and he's looking very likely to be my cash game SP2 on DraftKings. The Nationals are -144 favorites and the Marlins have a low implied total of 3.9 runs.

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

If you’re new to the article, this is the section where I pick an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher to hit a long ball today. If there's a game at Coors Field, I always exclude them from this list because it's too obvious. So just keep that in mind. Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential.

Ryan O'Hearn, KC: 1B (DK: $3.9K, FD: $3.5K)

It's not the best park for home runs but it's difficult to argue with O'Hearn's success against right-handed pitching. Every time I pass on this guy because I think regression is coming quickly (I still do) he keeps mashing the baseball and makes me kick myself. I'm switching up my approach to ride the hot bat while I can but it just won't shock me once the production falls off a cliff. His .458 ISO and .523 wOBA against right-handed pitching is incredible but not sustainable, as evidenced by his .396 BABIP. Still, I like the spot today against Musgrove, who is not particularly strong against left-handed hitting.

Trevor Story, COL: SS (DK: $5.3K, FD: $3.7K)

There is a big price difference between the sites and this is a steep ask on DraftKings for Story outside of Coors Field. It's a HUGE game, however, and as we know, he destroys lefties. Ryu isn't a pitcher I would go out of my way to attack but Story profiles so well in this spot that I can't ignore it. First, he has a .788 wOBA+ISO against left-handed pitching over his last 150 games. More recently, over the past two weeks, he has a 58.3% hard-hit rate with an average exit velocity of 94.9 miles per hour against lefties. Ryu throws a cutter, fastball, changeup and curveball. Story has a .506 xISO against the cutter, a .298 xISO against fastballs, a .352 xISO against changeups, and a .253 xISO against curveballs.

Franmil Reyes, SD: OF (DK: $3.6K, FD: $3.1K)

A value play with tons of upside makes Reyes an outstanding option today in both cash and tournaments. He has a massive .741 wOBA+ISO against left-handed pitching over his last 150 games. Suarez, meanwhile, is allowing an ugly 21.6% HR/FB with 43.3% hard contact, which has led to a 1.81 HR/9 against right-handed hitters. I like several of the Padres right-handed bats today but Reyes is standing out among them.

Value Bats

Similar to the home run watch list, in this section I’ll provide an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher who are priced in the value tier. If I can find someone under priced on both sites, I’ll highlight them. But in some cases, it could be site specific.

Josh Reddick, HOU: OF (DK: $3.5K, FD: $2.9K)

Surprisingly, Reddick smashes left-handed pitching. Typically lefty against lefty matchups are one to avoid but it's really hard to pass up on this price tag and these numbers. He has a .256 ISO and .366 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. Even better is his opponent tonight struggles with lefties, allowing a .187 xISO. This sets up as a great spot for Reddick and I love him in Houston stacks where I think others will leave him out tonight.

Freddy Galvis, SD: SS (DK: $2.9K, FD: $2.6K)

Galvis should move up to the top of the order against the left-handed Suarez. He has a respectable, though not exciting, .165 ISO and .317 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. Suarez gets crushed by right-handed bats, allowing a .250 xISO and .369 xwOBA. This is too cheap for somebody who should bat leadoff in such a plus matchup, even if Galvis doesn't jump off the page.

Ian Desmond, COL: 1B (DK: $4K, FD: $2.5K)

Desmond is basically free on FanDuel tonight, despite his very strong numbers against left-handed pitching. As I said before, Ryu isn't somebody I'd go out of my way to attack, but the upside here is really high for someone this inexpensive. He has a .238 ISO, .357 wOBA, and 38.1% hard-hit rate against lefties this season. He's not a target for me on DraftKings tonight but I'll be strongly considering him on FanDuel.

Stacks on Stacks

Your chalk stack of the day is the Tampa Bay Rays, who get one of the biggest possible park upgrades in baseball going from their home, Tropicana Field (24th in runs and 23rd in home runs) to Globe Life Park, which is currently first in runs and second in home runs this season. They have an implied run total of 5.7 runs, which is well above their season average and by far the highest total of the day. I love Tampa today but they will definitely be popular.

Milwaukee Brewers (vs. Anthony DeSclafani)

DeSclafani burned me a few times in the month of August where he pitched pretty well, including a 2.62 ERA (3.52 xFIP) with 27 strikeouts to just four walks in 34.1 innings of work. He’s come crashing back to earth in a big way in September with an 8.03 ERA (4.68 xFIP) in three starts. He hasn’t lasted longer than 4.2 innings in any of those games. He has managed to flash some strikeout upside, with twelve in twelve innings of work, but that won’t do you any good if you’ve also allowed eleven earned runs during that same span. I’m very comfortable stacking Milwaukee today, especially considering all the left-handed power they have in their lineups. He’s been especially weak against lefties with a 4.61 xFIP, a 1.79 WHIP, and a 39.3% hard contact rate. He is giving up 2.68 HR/9 this season to left-handed hitters. This puts Shaw, Granderson, Moustakas, Thames, and of course, Yelich all squarely on my radar. Obviously, you can include Cain and Aguilar as well, despite being right-handed. DeSclafani is better against right-handed hitters but I’m not going to shy away from him. Other pieces of this offense, including Braun and Broxton, are intriguing if they crack the lineup, but they aren’t a priority.

Houston Astros (vs. Wade LeBlanc)

This will be the fourth meeting of the season between this Houston lineup and LeBlanc. The Astros are winning this battle where they got to LeBlanc for three earned runs in just four innings back on June 6th and then they pummeled him for seven earned runs on ten hits in 4.1 innings on August 1st. He bounced back on August 11th with a respectable performance, going five innings and allowing only two earned runs while picking up the win. I’m still very much on the Houston side of this matchup even with that promising start last time out. The Astros are one of the best teams in baseball against left-handed pitching with a .179 ISO, .341 wOBA, and 120 wRC+. They have a low 20% strikeout rate, which shows as LeBlanc hasn’t had more than five strikeouts in any game against them this season. There’s a ton of power here, including the obvious guys like Bregman (.265 ISO, .412 wOBA), White (.315 ISO, .437 wOBA), Springer (.195 ISO, .362 wOBA), and Gattis (.285 ISO, .343 wOBA). This hasn’t been Correa’s best season but his .344 wOBA still warrants attention. Same with Altuve and his .332 wOBA. Those guys are always in play. The sneakier options are Gurriel, with his .350 wOBA and Reddick, despite the lefty on lefty matchup, with a .256 ISO and .366 wOBA. The Astros are comfortable home favorites today and have an implied total of 4.8 runs.

Detroit Tigers (vs. Gabriel Moya/Twins Bullpen)

The Twins are opting for a bullpen game today with Moya being the “opener” and then no confirmation of who is coming in after that. Obviously, this does make it a bit difficult to predict what’s going to happen here without all of the information available to us, but there are a few things standing out to me that are making the Tigers worthy of being mentioned. First, Moya is a left-handed pitcher, so right off the bat, if we get two or three innings out of him, that should work in Detroit’s favor. The Tigers are very right-handed heavy and have a respectable .323 wOBA and 35.6% hard-hit rate against lefties this season. Second, the Twins bullpen is pretty poor, with a 4.24 xFIP, 1.41 WHIP, and a 37.2% hard contact rate this season. In the last 30 days, they are trending down even further with a 4.60 xFIP, 1.46 WHIP, and 36.3% hard contact. Last, Vegas is currently pegging the Tigers at 4.7 implied runs and it actually opened at 4.6 runs. So if they are privy to any additional information that I don’t have, they clearly are siding with Detroit on this one. The usual suspects are in play for this team. It’s a fairly limited group that we can really target. It starts with Castellanos (.191 ISO, .331 wOBA), Goodrum (.229 ISO), and Candelario (.170 ISO). McCann is always in play against a lefty, though he’s not having a good season. You can also consider the newly promoted Christin Stewart, who had a .216 ISO and .373 wOBA in 122 games at Triple-A this season. They aren’t a fun team to roster, and they are far from safe, but there is upside here in a good matchup if you want to give them a look in a large field tournament.

The Bullpen Report

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