Written by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GP_Landry on Twitter

Before we get into it, a quick housekeeping note. The week two episode of the "LineStar Presnap" NFL podcast with @FantasyRath and @JoePisapia17 is now available. These podcasts have been outstanding so far, so make sure you take some time to listen. Also, @NitroDFS, despite running for the hills as Hurricane Florence approaches his home, has also posted his week 2 NFL newsletter over on the NFL projections page, so make sure to give that a read.

Today is an eight-game main slate on this Saturday night. There is one very clear favorite at the top of the pitcher's pool and then a big mix of possibilities but nothing that truly stands out. For the moment, we don't know who is pitching for the Marlins. This is supposed to be Dan Straily's spot but he felt discomfort during a bullpen session on Tuesday and he won't be available today. I doubt I will have interest in whoever it ends up being given the environment they will be pitching in today anyway. Offense should be pretty spread out we don't have a single team with an implied total over five runs but we have a lot of teams in the 4.5 to 4.8 range that are in play. The weather today looks pretty clear with no threats of rain at this point. You can give a little bump to the bats in Kansas City and Los Angeles where it will be over 80 degrees. Alright, let's see what this slate has to offer.

Remember, no newsletter tomorrow. Focus on those NFL rosters!

High Priced Pitching

German Marquez, COL (@SFG) (DK: $12K, FD: $10.6K)

Let’s just go ahead and take a look at the last several pitchers to face the Giants and their result starting with the most recent:

Tyler Anderson: Six innings, seven hits, two earned runs, six strikeouts

Anibal Sanchez: Six innings, six hits, one earned run, four strikeouts

Mike Foltynewicz: Nine innings, six hits, one earned run, seven strikeouts

Sean Newcomb: Six innings, three hits, one earned run, eight strikeouts

Zach Davies: Five innings, six hits, two earned runs, two strikeouts

Gio Gonzalez: 5.2 innings, three hits, zero earned runs, seven strikeouts

Chase Anderson: Five innings, five hits, two earned runs, five strikeouts

A few things stand out there. First, none of these guys were pitching particularly well, outside of maybe Folynewicz, before their start against the Giants. Gio Gonzalez and Tyler Anderson in particular had been absolute garbage. Second, the only person on this list who did not get the win is Tyler Anderson last night but that was no fault of his own. After a rough start, he settled in and pitched really well just didn't get any run support as the Rockies bats were somehow shut out against Chris Stratton. Last but not least, none of these guys gave up more than two earned runs. In fact, the Giants never scored more than three earned runs in any of these games even after the starters were pulled. Basically, I was trying to find a more creative approach today to display just how bad the Giants are right now as I've repeated my speech about their current numbers almost everyday this week and I think people are getting sick of reading it. Today, laughably, this awful offense will take on German Marquez who has arguably been the best pitcher in baseball in the second half of the season. Marquez since the All-Star break: 4-1 in ten starts, 2.63 ERA (2.28 xFIP) 89 strikeouts to just 20 earned runs in 68.1 innings pitched. Only four home runs allowed. He has an 11.72 K/9 and a 2.11 BB/9 during that span. Plus, remember, half of those starts were in Coors Field. He is, in my opinion, the hottest player in baseball right now. Perhaps I'm biased, since he is responsible for a good majority of my profits in MLB DFS this season for all those times I locked him in when he was under $6K. The numbers don't lie both for him and for how bad the Giants are. LineStar user @benf15harp made a comparison in chat today to Trevor Bauer before he got hurt and that's really spot on with how dominant he was earlier this year. The one difference is I'd be willing to bet Bauer would be pushing $14K today on DraftKings and $12K on FanDuel if he were in this matchup instead of Marquez at "just" $12K on DraftKings and only $10.6K on FanDuel. Just press that lock button, regardless of ownership, and move on.

Charlie Morton, HOU (vs. ARI) (DK: $9.8K, FD: $7.4K)

Full disclosure, I wasn't originally going to recommend Morton today. He was struggling a bit and then ended up missing a start with a shoulder issue. Then he came back and had a solid outing in a difficult matchup against the Red Sox. Hopefully, he's back to 100% again but I'd like to see a little more before I can totally trust him. The other issue is he hasn't pitched more than five innings in over a month. The Astros, rightfully so, are giving him the "bubble wrap" treatment as they prepare for another playoff run to defend their title. As good as Morton is, I think it's asking a lot for him to return value on his $9.8K price tag on DraftKings if he's going to have another five inning limit (for the record this innings limit isn't something that was announced I'm just following the trend in his game logs). Just as I was ready to cross him off my list, however, FanDuel came along and decided to make him $7.4K today. Now, I have interest again. I do believe he's more than capable of returning or even exceeding value on that price tag even if he's pulled after five innings. He has the highest strikeout rate (28.6%) and swinging strike rate (11.9%) of any pitcher on the main slate today. He's outstanding against both sides of the plate, which is important against a difficult Arizona lineup. He has a 3.32 xFIP with 35.7% strikeouts against lefties and a 3.64 xFIP with 22.4% strikeouts against righties. The Astros are currently the largest favorites on the board at -184 and the Diamondacks have a low 3.4 implied run total. I can't do it on DraftKings but he's firmly in play on FanDuel today at this price tag.

Value Pitching

Reynaldo Lopez, CWS (DK: $7.5K, FD: $8.4K)

Man, what’s up with pitchers with the last name of Lopez? Jorge Lopez nearly throws a perfect game about a week ago and has been real solid recently and Reynaldo Lopez has been on fire for the past month. In six starts, he has a 3.25 ERA (3.44 SIERA) with 30.1% strikeouts and 12.1% swinging strikes. The WHIP is outstanding at 1.08 with an 82.7% LOB%. Somehow he’s doing all this despite allowing 44.9% fly balls and a 39.1% hard contact rate. He hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in any of his last four starts. In his most recent outing, against the Angels, he went six innings, allowing two hits, zero earned runs, and struck out ten batters. Today, he gets a Baltimore lineup that continues to struggle. They have only a .142 ISO and .295 wOBA against right-handed pitching. As an added bonus, they have a 25% strikeout rate. Even if we aren’t buying Lopez’s recent over 30% strikeouts and he reverts back to his season long 18.3% rate, we can still expect a boost today against this lineup with one of the worst strikeout rates on the slate. The White Sox are -123 favorites and the Orioles have a lower 4.3 implied total. Normally, I'd prefer a total under four when choosing my pitcher, but the recent results here are standing out. He's not safe at all but if he can bring that strikeout rate for another performance today, especially against this lineup, the ceiling could be very intriguing.

Yefry Ramirez, BAL (vs. CWS) (DK: $5.6K, FD: $5.5K)

So, here’s the deal. Safety, floor, whatever you want to call it doesn’t exist in the value range today. Heck, outside of Marquez it doesn’t really exist at all today. If we are going to roster another pitcher we have to focus on ceiling and not worry about the floor. Somebody like Ramirez is either going to get you negative points or he’s going to have a really good performance and far exceed salary expectations. He has a 21% strikeout rate and an 11.4% swinging strike rate. That’s right up there with guys like Marquez (11.8%), Morton (11.9%), and Heaney (11.5%) yet Ramirez is thousands of dollars cheaper than those guys. Now, obviously, he comes with a much higher SIERA (4.91), walk rate (12.7%), and WHIP (1.56) which makes him scary to own. That strikeout upside, however, will get a nice boost today as he takes on the White Sox. They have a 25.6% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season, a 25.1% strikeout rate over the last 30 days, and a 27% strikeout rate over the last 14 days. Similar to Ramirez, they are a very boom or bust team. There’s really no middle ground here. Either the White Sox are going to come out and display that power they have and make him look very bad or Ramirez is going to flash that upside and mow these guys down. I’m not sure which way it will land but I do know in a tournament, where nobody else will play him today, if this goes the right way you could find yourself in a very good spot after investing less than $6K in him. The White Sox have one of the higher implied totals on the slate so the risk here is through the roof. Don't go putting a bunch of bankroll behind this but in a large field tourney he has the upside to break the slate if everything goes exactly right.

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

If you’re new to the article, this is the section where I pick an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher to hit a long ball today. If there's a game at Coors Field, I always exclude them from this list because it's too obvious. So just keep that in mind. Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential.

Nolan Arenado, COL: 3B (DK: $4.9K, FD: $4.1K)

I wish they were at Coors but Arenado (and Story) against lefties are basically automatic plays for me every time. He has a ridiculous .915 wOBA+ISO against left-handed pitching over his last 150 games and a .405 ISO with 50.4% hard-hits this season. Bumgarner is a shell of his former self these days and not someone I avoid with bats anymore. He's allowing 43.6% hard contact to right-handed hitters this season.

Nelson Cruz, SEA: OF (DK: $4.3K, FD: $4.1K)

Not only do I love Cruz against lefties but this feels a bit cheap for him in this spot. Typically, I would expect Cruz to be in the $4.5K and up category on DraftKings, especially in a plus matchup. Heaney does struggle with right-handed hitters allowing 40% fly balls and a 14.6% HR/FB with 40.1% hard contact. Cruz has a .317 ISO and 47.4% hard-hits against lefties this season. He's also 4 for 14 with 3 home runs against Heaney in his career.

Travis Shaw, MIL: 2B/3B (DK: $4.2K, FD: $3.7K)

If you've been playing MLB DFS, or just following baseball, for any amount of time then you probably know how bad Ivan Nova is against left-handed hitting. In case you need a reminder, this season he has a 5.07 xFIP with only 11.7% strikeouts while allowing a .260 xISO. With a strikeout rate that low and an expected isolated slugging percentage that high, he's basically out there throwing batting practice to lefties. This puts Shaw on our radar today with his .296 ISO and 42% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. As an added bonus, this is a big park downgrade for Nova.

Value Bats

Similar to the home run watch list, in this section I’ll provide an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher who are priced in the value tier. If I can find someone under priced on both sites, I’ll highlight them. But in some cases, it could be site specific.

Willians Astudillo, MIN: 3B/C (DK: $3.4K, FD: $2.5K)

Have you seen this guy play yet? He looks nothing like an athlete, short, stalky, and seemingly slow. But, he's quite the opposite, despite the build, and he's been outstanding in his most recent call up to the big leagues. Since rejoining the Twins on August 25th, he's 11 for 34 with a .427 wOBA and .281 ISO. He has five runs scored, seven runs batted in, and three home runs all with a crazy low 2.9% strikeout rate.

Brian Goodwin, KC: OF (DK: $3.5K, FD: $2.4K)

Goodwin gets a matchup today that is a bit of an unknown. De Jong looked pretty good in his first appearance last week but we don't have much to work with in terms of sample size. His Triple-A numbers were nothing to write home about including a 4.34 xFIP with 20.2% strikeouts. Goodwin has a career .203 ISO and .320 wOBA with 34.3% hard-hits against right-handed pitching. He'll likely bat near the bottom of the order, which isn't ideal, but if you were desperate for a salary saver (or stacking Kansas City today) he's an option.

Jake Cave, MIN: OF (DK: $3.8K, FD: $2.6K)

It looks like the Royals/Twins game will be a good source of value bats if you need them on this slate. Cave has been a "go-to" value bat all season for me and it's only been better recently. In September, Cave has a .358 wOBA and .245 ISO including three home runs, ten runs scored, and eight runs batted in. This has resulted in him being moved up in the order which just increases his value to us. He's slightly above the "value-tier" price that I typically shoot for in this article but he's still too cheap, on both sites, for the recent production we've seen.

Stacks on Stacks

As I mentioned earlier, I don't see a particular team/stack that is really jumping off the page. Typically, we have at least one team with an implied total over five runs but that's not the case today. I'm not worried about ownership so I'm not going to exclude any teams today.

Milwaukee Brewers (vs. Ivan Nova)

There are too many lefties for Nova in this matchup and this is a horrible park downgrade for him. PNC Park is both 26th in runs scored and home runs allowed. Miller Park is 14th in runs scored and 8th in home runs allowed. The Brewers have a lot of lineup combinations they can roll out so we'll need to see a posted lineup before making any final decisions but obviously the lefties are standing out to me here. Yelich, Moustakas, Thames, Granderson, and of course Shaw would be high on my list. Nova is better against right-handed hitters but I'm not going to shy away from him either. Cain and Aguilar are both firmly in play as well. Secondary options include Braun, Perez, and Schoop if you wanted to be a bit sneakier. The Brewers are currently tied for the highest implied total on the main slate at 4.8 runs.

San Diego Padres (vs. Alex Claudio & Ariel Jurado)

This starts off really strong for the Padres as they'll all get at least one at-bat against the left-handed Claudio before switching to the right-handed Jurado. Normally, I would avoid the Padres against right-handed pitching as they are not a strong team in that situation, but Jurado is so bad that I think San Diego warrants consideration. In nine appearances this season, Jurado has a 7.03 ERA (5.29 xFIP) with more walks (15) than strikeouts (14) in 39.2 innings. He's allowed 31 runs, all of them earned, and given up six home runs. If all goes well here the Padres could potentially get things rolling against the lefty, since they smash lefties, and then ride that momentum against a very poor right-handed pitcher. As far as I'm concerned all the Padres are in play here. Renfroe, Myers, Reyes, Hedges, and Hosmer standout as the best options. You could consider Urias and Galvis though I prefer them against lefties and since we'll likely only get one at-bat I'm not making them a priority. The Padres opened with a 4.6 implied run total that is now up to 4.7 runs, second highest on the main slate.

Colorado Rockies (vs. Madison Bumgarner)

If I wanted to go sneaky today this is where I would go. I'm a bit surprised at how low the Colorado implied total is (3.8) given their history this season against left-handed pitching. I realize this isn't the best park in the world for power, but it's more friendly to right-handed batters and it's still middle of the pack in runs scored. I alluded to it earlier but at this point I view Bumgarner as a pitcher to attack with bats now before I view him as an option I'd actually use on my roster. He hasn't been good this season with a 4.46 SIERA and an average 20.3% strikeout rate (only 9.7% swinging strikes). He's solid at limiting lefties only allowing a .062 xISO and .247 xwOBA but he's really bad against righties allowing a .224 xISO and .350 xwOBA. This puts Arenado, who we talked about earlier, and Trevor Story, (.365 ISO, .449 wOBA) who both destroy left-handed pitching, at the top of my list for the whole slate today, not just for the Rockies. As a team, Colorado has a .196 ISO and .344 wOBA against left-handed pitching. In addition to Arenado and Story, Matt Holliday should make the lineup and has performed well in his limited playing time so far. Ryan McMahon has a .233 ISO and .432 wOBA also in limited at-bats. DJ LeMahieu also crushes lefties with a .226 ISO and .392 wOBA. Ian Desmond has a .242 ISO and .359 wOBA. I don't hate the lefties, as the Rockies have several good ones, I just don't think you need them today with all this right-handed power. Vegas does not agree with me on this one as they are typically low on Colorado when they are on the road.

Congratulations to the winner's of yesterday's freeroll!

• 1st Place: xtremeballer: 182.20

• 2nd Place: OaklandBlackout: 179.60

• 3rd Place: perelli28: 156.70

Be sure to shoot a DM to @LineStarApp with your winning lineup to claim your prize!

No freeroll today since it's the weekend

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @glandry if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@GP_Landry).