Written by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GP_Landry on Twitter

The weekend is here! As usual, we have every team in baseball on the slate tonight, so there's a lot to cover today. Before we get into it, a quick housekeeping note... The week two episode of the LineStar Presnap NFL podcast with @FantasyRath and @JoePisapia17 is now available. These podcasts have been outstanding so far, so make sure you take some time to listen. Also, @NitroDFS, despite running for the hills as Hurricane Florence approaches his home, has also posted his week 2 NFL newsletter over on the NFL projections page, so make sure to give that a read. As far as tonight goes, the top tier of pitching is loaded, so I'll highlight two of my favorites. We have some interesting value options tonight as well. Ownership should be pretty mixed up overall, so I don't anticipate I'll be taking it into consideration very much today. Let's get to work!

High Priced Pitching

Masahiro Tanaka, NYY (vs. TOR) (DK: $11.6K, FD: $10.8K)

Simply put, I can't bring myself to pay that much money for Scherzer today. There is no doubt in my mind he is the best pitcher on the board and carries the highest ceiling but by paying nearly $14K for him (on DraftKings) you are essentially putting all your eggs in one basket. It's a good basket, don't get me wrong, but if he happens to fail in this spot, you've invested so much of your salary into that one player and it will be nearly impossible to recover. You could make a stronger argument on FanDuel with his price tag over there, but on a huge slate like this that is loaded with pitching options, I'm going to opt to pay down, as there is a $2.1K difference on DraftKings and a $1.8K difference between Scherzer and Tanaka, who I really like today.

His numbers are really strong across the board with a 3.48 SIERA, 25.2% strikeouts, and 14% swinging strikes. The WHIP is impressive at just 1.09 while forcing 47.6% groundballs. He's trending in the right direction as well. In the past month, the SIERA has improved to 3.03 while the strikeout rate has stayed relatively flat and the swinging strike rate has increased to 14.9%. His swinging strike rate over the past month is actually 1.2% higher than Max Max. He also has an outstanding 1.06 WHIP with 50.5% groundballs and only a 3.8% HR/FB. His splits to both sides of the plate are excellent as well, including a 3.33 xFIP with 24.6% strikeouts and only 6% walks to lefties and a 3.52 xFIP with 25.7% strikeouts and only 5.3% walks to righties. I'm having a hard time finding any kind of weakness to exploit here. Just to reiterate, Scherzer is the best pitcher on the board. If you find a way to pay for him and you're comfortable with the bats, I would never talk you out of it. I just don't see myself ending up there today. As an added bonus, the Yankees are -273 favorites and the Blue Jays have an implied total of 3.4 runs. I'll be heavy on Tanaka today.

Walker Buehler, LAD (vs. STL) (DK: $10.1K, FD: $8.9K)

I am really excited to sit and enjoy this game tonight. We have two of the premier young pitching talents going toe to toe for two teams battling it out for the final wildcard spot in the National League. This will be September baseball at its finest today. Buehler continues to impress and he's needed now more than ever as the Dodgers have closed the gap to just one game behind the Cardinals. On the season, he has a 3.11 SIERA with 32.3% strikeouts and a 0.95 WHIP. The LOB% is very strong at 84% and he's forcing 48.5% groundballs. Against left-handed hitters, he has a 2.86 xFIP with 30.1% strikeouts and a 0.99 WHIP. Against right-handed hitters he has a 3.46 xFIP with 25.3% strikeouts and a 1.07 WHIP. Recently, he has really flashed the upside that has made him such a highly regarded prospect. Since the All-Star break, he has a 2.70 ERA (3.02 xFIP) with 63 strikeouts in just 53.1 innings of work. The ceiling is massive. Unfortunately, the risk is also here. As talented as he is, he's still young and gaining experience. He has sixteen walks and has allowed seven home runs in those nine starts. Not ideal. As strong as the strikeout rate looks, his swinging strike rate suggests we should see some regression. That doesn't mean the regression will hit anytime soon, it just means over time, we can expect his strikeout rate to decrease. It definitely doesn't scare me off of him but it's worth noting. Despite those red flags, there is far more reward than risk here. In addition to everything we've already talked about, the Cardinals are a plus matchup with a .163 ISO and .316 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Buehler and the Dodgers are a -121 favorite and the Cardinals have an implied total of only 3.6 runs. This will be fun.

Value Pitching

Dallas Keuchel, HOU (vs. ARI) (DK: $7.9K, FD: $8.7K)

The problem with Keuchel is he lacks any real upside but his run prevention is very strong and the floor is high. He has a 4.04 SIERA with only 17.5% strikeouts and 8.6% swinging strikes. But he has a comfortable 6.1% walk rate while forcing 54% groundballs and only allowing 28.8% hard contact. Opposing left-handed hitters have just a .069 xISO and .263 xwOBA while opposing right-handed hitters have a .144 xISO and .313 xwOBA against him. He's one of the best at eating up innings, he's gone less than six innings just twice in his last ten starts, and minimizing damage by keeping the ball on the ground and limiting hard contact. Since the beginning of August, he's 3-1 with a 3.55 ERA (3.82 xFIP) and 20 earned runs allowed in over 50 innings of work. He has a solid 2.13 BB/9 and a 52.7% groundball rate during that span. The one red flag is the low 6.22 K/9 which definitely limits his ceiling. He matches up today with the Diamondbacks, who are going in the wrong direction in a hurry. They were leading the NL West at the start of September but have gone just 3-7 in their last ten games and find themselves in third place now, 4.5 games out. They have a 22.2% strikeout rate with a .169 ISO and .321 wOBA against left-handed pitching. Solid, but not scary. Keuchel should be able to do his thing today. Pitch deep into the game, keep the runs to a minimum, and hopefully pick up a handful of strikeouts. Vegas agrees, as the Astros are a -187 favorite and Arizona has a low implied total of just 3.4 runs. Due to the low ceiling, I wouldn't go here in tournaments, but he makes for a solid SP2 in cash today.

Tyler Anderson, COL (@SFG) (DK: $6.4K, FD: $6.3K)

Take a deep breath, close your eyes, click Anderson's name tonight and then get far away from your computer or phone before you change your mind. His game log since the All-Star break is scary. Like really scary. An 8.02 ERA (4.57 xFIP) with 41 strikeouts, 16 walks, 13 home runs allowed, and 38 earned runs in 42.2 innings of work. Yikes. But despite the recent results, we have one very key reason to be optimistic today....IT'S THE GIANTS. Some of you are sick of this speech but it needs to be repeated for those who don't read the newsletter everyday. I'll make it brief today. San Francisco against left-handed pitching: 22.3% strikeouts, .129 ISO, .277 wOBA, 73 wRC+. San Francisco in their last 30 days: 28.6% strikeouts, .098 ISO, .229 wOBA, 41 wRC+. San Francisco in their last 14 days: 31.7% strikeouts, .096 ISO, .262 wOBA, 62 wRC+. I don't even know what to say. This is basically a minor league club at this point. My assumption is, despite the matchup, people will take one look at Anderson's recent numbers and cross him off their list. Don't be that guy. The Giants have scored just one run in three straight games and haven't scored more than three runs since September 3rd. The Rockies are -133 favorites and San Francisco has an implied total of just 3.5 runs. I will invest in every pitcher facing them from here on out, whether it's Max Scherzer, Tyler Anderson, or Homer Freaking Bailey.

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

If you’re new to the article, this is the section where I pick an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher to hit a long ball today. If there's a game at Coors Field, I always exclude them from this list because it's too obvious. So just keep that in mind. Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential.

Anthony Rizzo, CHC: 1B (DK: $5K, FD: $4K)

Matt Harvey has certainly pitched above expectations this season but left-handed hitters remain a serious problem. He allows 43.6% fly balls with 16.8% HR/FB and 42.5% hard contact. Opposing lefties have a .263 xISO against him this season. Rizzo has a .221 ISO and 35.5% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. It looks like the wind will be neutral tonight, which makes this a very hitter friendly park.

Brandon Nimmo, NYM: OF (DK: $5.4K, FD: $3.7K)

Velasquez will get the ball today and make a spot start for the Red Sox. He's allowed a home run in five of his seven starts this season and a .602 wOBA+ISO to lefties over his last twenty starts. Left-handed hitters have a .206 xISO against him this season. Nimmo has a .250 ISO, .398 wOBA, and 36.7% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this year. It's a park upgrade for the Mets offense as well.

Gleyber Torres, NYY: 2B (DK: $4K, FD: $3.6K)

Marco Estrada is allowing a .305 xISO to right-handed hitters this season. Let that one sink in for a second. He's giving up 57.3% fly balls with a 13.5% HR/FB rate and 33.9% hard contact. Yankee Stadium is fifth in the league in home runs this season. That ridiculous fly ball rate will not survive this park. His most often thrown pitches to right-handed hitters are a "fastball" (I'm putting it in quotes because his average velocity is under 90 mph) and a changeup. Torres has a .227 xISO against fastballs (.364 xISO when that pitch is under 90 mph) and a .225 xISO against changeups.

Value Bats

Similar to the home run watch list, in this section I’ll provide an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher who are priced in the value tier. If I can find someone under priced on both sites, I’ll highlight them. But in some cases, it could be site specific.

Nick Hundley, SFG: C (DK: $3.4K, FD: $2.6K)

Hundley continues to rake against left-handed pitching with a 2.18 FP/PA and a .633 wOBA+ISO over his last 150 games. He has a .229 ISO, .338 wOBA, and 50% hard-hit rate this season. I like Tyler Anderson today against this struggling Giants lineup as a whole but it wouldn't shock me if Hundley had a good game on his own. He's too cheap for this spot.

Steven Souza Jr, ARI: OF (DK: $3.5K, FD: $2.9K)

Despite my interest in Keuchel tonight, Souza does stand out to me as a good value bat if you need one. It's really difficult to ignore a player with a 62.3% hard-hit rate against left-handed pitching that is priced this low. The .195 ISO and .340 wOBA aren't so bad either.

Brandon Guyer, CLE: OF (DK: $3.2K, FD: $2.1K)

There's not a lot standing out to me for value at the corner infield positions today. Meanwhile, Guyer is jumping off the page, so we'll talk about him instead. Guyer is similar to Souza where he has a massive splits advantage but is underpriced because of his total body of work. His .088 ISO and .201 wOBA against right-handed pitching is awful but it drives down his price dramatically. His .224 ISO and .355 wOBA against left-handed pitching is fantastic and makes him a steal whenever a lefty is on the hill. He'll take on Matt Boyd today.

Stacks on Stacks

There are a LOT of good stacks today and it's a massive slate so I'm really not worried about ownership. If I had to label a stack as "chalk" today it would be the Yankees against Estrada. They opened with a 5.4 implied run total that is already up to 5.8 runs. I really like them today but they are likely to get the most attention, so we'll exclude them here.

Chicago Cubs (vs. Matt Harvey)

There are far too many left-handed bats that the Cubs can insert into their lineup today. It's going to make life very difficult for Harvey, who has a 4.83 xFIP with only 18.7% strikeouts and is allowing 2.11 HR/9 against left-handing hitting this season. Rizzo has a .221 ISO and .380 wOBA and is a member of the home run watch list today. Zobrist (.365 wOBA), Murphy (.189 ISO, .362 wOBA), Schwarber (.276 ISO, .358 wOBA), and Happ (.196 ISO, .342 wOBA) are the priorities. You certainly don't have to avoid the right-handed bats either. Harvey is better against righties but he's far from an avoidable matchup. Baez (.276 ISO, .370 wOBA) and Bryant (.341 wOBA) are part of that group. One of the most intriguing things about the Cubs stack is how little some of these guys strikeout against right-handed pitching. Rizzo (9.8 K%), Zobrist (13.4 K%), and Murphy (9.3 K%) are the most notable. I'd probably start my stacks with those three, as they provide a really strong floor/ceiling combination, and then throw in a higher ceiling but lower floor option as my fourth player, such as Baez or Schwarber. Chicago has a 5.1 implied run total tonight.

Chicago White Sox (vs. Luis Ortiz)

Ortiz's major league career did not get off to a good start when he allowed three earned runs in less than an inning of work against the Rays on September 7th. Normally, I'd throw something like that out the window. Small sample size, major league debut, no concerns. But then I started looking at his minor league numbers. How did he even get promoted? In Triple-A this season he has a really bad 4.49 xFIP with only 15.6% strikeouts. Even in Double-A his strikeout rate is very low, bottoming out at 15.4% and peaking at 22.6% over the last few seasons. This is great news for a strikeout happy team like the White Sox as their floor will get a nice boost in this spot on top of their already high ceiling. Trying to figure out which White Sox players to include can always be a challenge but there are a few standing out today. Abreu is the top option here with his .200 ISO and .331 wOBA. Daniel Palka will likely be a popular home run pick today with his .261 ISO and .331 wOBA. Yolmer Sanchez and Yoan Moncada both enter the conversation against a right-handed pitcher. Sanchez has a .320 wOBA and Moncada has a .189 ISO. Matt Davidson is far more deadly against lefties but still carries a .209 ISO and his high strikeout rate is reduced in this spot. I'm less interested in Tim Anderson against a right-handed pitcher and he'll likely fall lower in the order today. Same with Avisail Garcia. The White Sox opened with a 4.5 implied run total that is already up to 4.9 runs. That's a big increase in a short window.

Philadelphia Phillies (vs. Wei-Yin Chen)

I have to stack against Chen whenever he's on the road and that's only magnified today as this shapes up to be a nightmare spot for him. He'll be going from arguably the best pitching environment in baseball, Marlins Park, to one of the best hitting environments in Citizens Bank Park. Chen has drastic home/road splits including a 1.77 ERA (4.11 xFIP) with 23.4% strikeouts and a 0.99 WHIP at home but a 9.13 ERA (5.63 xFIP) with only 14.3% strikeouts and a 1.82 WHIP on the road. Those are some crazy differences. I prefer the Phillies against right-handed pitching but several players stand out today including Ramos (.250 ISO, .396 wOBA), Santana (.221 ISO, .341 wOBA), and Quinn (.250 ISO, .407 wOBA). Hoskins is always in play, and he has a strong .328 wOBA against lefties but the power is way down, so he's less of a priority. I find myself having a hard time leaving him out of Philadelphia stacks though. Jose Bautista can be viewed as a boom or bust option in this spot. They opened with an implied total of 4.6 runs which is currently up to 4.8 runs.

Don’t forget, we are still hosting a daily (weekday) freeroll on DraftKings!

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Here’s the link for today’s contest!

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @glandry if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@GP_Landry).