Written by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GP_Landry on Twitter

I'm so sorry about how late this is guys. I'm still on the road for my full-time job (going home today thankfully) and I had anticipated more down time to get these newsletters done, which hasn't been the case at all. Plus, I had written sections already about both Steven Matz and Matt Shoemaker and then I learned earlier today that Matz was no longer on the slate and Shoemaker's start had been pushed back. This is a complicated slate. On FanDuel, it's six games and locks at 6:30 pm EST to include the 6:40 game between New York and Miami. On DraftKings, it's only five games and does not include that matchup. Outside of the top higher priced pitchers, there is just nothing I'm confident in suggesting to you (I'll talk about it more). Overall, for me, this is a one pitcher site kind of slate or just take the night off and get a head start on my NFL lineups. Remember, the best way to be a profitable player is to be smart about where you invest your money. It's okay to take slates off if you're not feeling it. If you simply want the practice, play some free games so you can work on different strategies for slates like this. You don't always have to risk money.

Congratulations to the winners of yesterday's freeroll!

• 1st Place: Rjhill34: 165.95

• 2nd Place: garrett2579: 165.25

• 3rd Place: dgolds1: 156.25

No freeroll today since I'm getting this out so late.

High Priced Pitching

Clayton Kershaw, LAD (@STL) (DK: $11.9K, FD: $11.5K)

Remember when the Cardinals season was over back in mid-July? Sitting at just 47-46 and 7.5 games back, the Cardinals fired Mike Matheny and looked like they were settling in for a long season. Instead, they've gone 34-19 since and now sit at 81-65, two games ahead of the Dodgers for the final wildcard spot. Baseball is amazing. The Cardinals fire their manager and start crushing the rest of the way. The Dodgers acquire Manny Machado and Brian Dozier at the deadline, become one of the favorites for the World Series, and have gone in the other direction ever since. This is a huge series if the Dodgers want to get back into the fight. They will start off today with their heart and soul who's been doing Clayton Kershaw things since the All-Star break. He's 4-1 in nine starts with a 2.04 ERA and a 3.04 xFIP. He has fifty six strikeouts to just four walks in 61.2 innings. Ideally, I'd like to see more than 8.17 K/9 when I'm paying this much salary but some of that is skewed by a couple of bad games. He's had nine, seven, nine, three, and seven strikeouts in his last five starts. What's also encouraging is he seems to be completely healthy again, as the Dodgers are letting him pitch deep into games. He hasn't gone less than six innings since the break. It's not an easy matchup, as the Cardinals have been playing good baseball like we talked about. They have some power with a .175 ISO but also a below average .315 wOBA and 97 wRC+. The other positive is a 22.9% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching. The Dodgers are -186 favorites and the Cardinals have a very low 3.2 implied run total. Not that we really have much to choose from today, but it's pretty obvious Kershaw is the top pitcher on the board.

Eduardo Rodriguez, BOS (vs. TOR) (DK: $9.1K, FD: $8.6K)

If you don't agree about Kershaw being the best pitcher on the slate, you could definitely make an argument for Rodriguez. History and overall talent still put Kershaw well in front but this season's results are a lot closer than you think, especially when you consider the difference in price. Rodriguez has a 3.64 ERA and 3.70 SIERA with 26.1% strikeouts (higher than Kershaw) and 11.1% swinging strikes (nearly identical to Kershaw's 11.4% swinging strikes). The WHIP is quite a bit higher (1.24 to 0.98) and the groundball rate is quite a bit lower (48.8% to 39.6%). Not ideal, but he makes up for some of it with a better hard contact rate that sits at just 26.8%. This will be his third start since returning from the disabled list. In the first game, he went 5.2 innings allowing just three hits and one earned run with a whopping twelve strikeouts. In the second game, he got smacked around a bit in a difficult matchup with the Astros. He's faced the Blue Jays a few times already this season with pretty good success. He's 2-0 in three starts with a 2.25 ERA and a 3.30 xFIP. He's got fifteen strikeouts to just two walks in 17.5 innings. Toronto has some power with a .183 ISO but they have a low .303 wOBA and 90 wRC+. This isn't a matchup we need to run away from. Boston is a massive -240 favorite and the Blue Jays have an implied total of 3.6 runs. To be clear, Kershaw is far and away the best pitcher on the board. But when you factor in the nearly $3K discount you will get on Rodriguez today, you can definitely argue he's the better point per dollar pitcher on this slate.

Value Pitching

I mentioned it earlier, but both of the players who I had originally written up for value pitching on this slate are no longer available. I really liked Steven Matz in this spot but the Mets and Marlins game was rescheduled and now these teams are no longer available to us. Matt Shoemaker was also originally scheduled to start tonight and he's been solid since his return from the disabled list, but the Angels decided to move his start back a day to give him some extra rest and now they are going with a bullpen game today. There is nobody else that I would feel comfortable recommending to you guys. I refuse to suggest somebody that I would never play myself. The only person I would even slightly consider is Brett Anderson because of his really strong matchup against Baltimore, who really struggle with left-handed pitching, but I think it's safe to assume he will be on a pitch count today. This is his first start off of the disabled list, he threw a bullpen session that only lasted 45 pitches, and the injury was to his forearm on his pitching arm. I don't think they risk it. After that, we have Gaviglio against the Red Sox. Gaviglio has flashed upside this season but I would never play him here. Gomber against the Dodgers can be considered if you really had to choose somebody, but I would never do it myself. Gonsalves and Fillmyer are both awful and both got shelled recently by their respective opponents today. Mike Leake against the Angels? I just can't do it. There's no upside. Next is an Angels bullpen game so nobody will pitch long enough to pay off their salary. Last, and definitely least, we have Dylan Bundy against Oakland, to which my response would be hahahahaahahahahahahahahahaha no. I'm playing a one pitcher site today and rolling with one of the top arms or I'm not playing at all. I'm not risking real money on any of these guys as my SP2.

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

If you’re new to the article, this is the section where I pick an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher to hit a long ball today. If there's a game at Coors Field, I always exclude them from this list because it's too obvious. So just keep that in mind. Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential.

J.D Martinez, BOS: OF (DK: $5.6K, FD: $4.7K)

Martinez gets a mouth watering matchup against Sam Gaviglio today who has allowed four earned runs or more in three of his last four starts and five home runs during that same span. It's J.D Martinez. Do I really need to explain why he's a good option for a home run today? He has a .791 wOBA+ISO in his last 150 at-bats against right-handed pitching. Fire him up.

Matt Chapman, OAK: 3B (DK: $4.7K, FD: $3.8K)

I recommended Chapman earlier this week and he let me down but I'm going right back to the well here against Dylan Bundy. There is nobody better in DFS baseball to target than Bundy. He's allowed a league leading 37 home runs this season. That's eight more than the next closest pitcher. Chapman has a .275 ISO and 44% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Jed Lowrie, OAK: 2B (DK: $4.6K, FD: $3.7K)

Normally, in addition to trying to mix up the positions on this home run watch list, I try to mix up the teams as well, but Oakland is standing out to me so much today that I feel like I'd be doing you guys a disservice if I didn't highlight them as much as possible. You already know why pitchers against Bundy are a great play. Lowrie is a rare commodity that brings power to a typically weak second base position. He's a switch hitter and has significantly more power against right-handed pitching with a .221 ISO and 37.5% hard-hit rate.

Value Bats

Similar to the home run watch list, in this section I’ll provide an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher who are priced in the value tier. If I can find someone under priced on both sites, I’ll highlight them. But in some cases, it could be site specific.

Jorge Bonifacio, KC: OF (DK: $3.3K, FD: $2.6K)

In four major league starts Gonsalves is 0-2 with an 11.68 ERA and 7.74 xFIP. He has six strikeouts and thirteen walks in 12.1 innings of work. Is this really the best the Twins can do right now? Bonifacio is far from safe but he has a respectable .489 wOBA+ISO against left-handed pitching and he should bat somewhere near the middle of the order on a Kansas City team that I'm very high on today.

Chad Pinder, OAK: 2B/OF (DK: $3.4K, FD: $2.4K)

Another member of Oakland. Starting to get the picture? Pinder is someone I typically reserve for left-handed pitching but I'll make an exception when he's facing Dylan Bundy. He has a massive 55% hard-hit rate against lefties and a respectable 35% hard-hit rate against righties. Plus, we could get lucky and get a left-handed arm out of the Baltimore bullpen when Bundy is ultimately pulled from this game. The entire Oakland lineup is in play today. Pinder is a possible candidate to not make the lineup so just keep an eye on it.

Kyle Seager, SEA: 3B (DK: $3.2K, FD: $2.7K)

Seager has been pretty cold recently but I'm willing to buy low on the talent and he still presents some upside. On the season, he has an ultra low .269 wOBA but a solid .191 ISO and 40.5% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. His career numbers show the same power (.190 ISO) but also a much better overall hitter with a .340 wOBA. I can't explain why he's struggling so much this season but he still has a nice ceiling, especially when you factor in his price today.

Stacks on Stacks

It's hard to really exclude anyone on a slate this small but I'll leave off the Red Sox since they have the highest implied total of the day. I still love them regardless but I'm assuming they get the most attention.

Oakland Athletics (vs. Dylan Bundy)

I know you're surprised about this one. There's very little analysis needed here. Bundy has strikeout upside but also a 1.42 WHIP with 47% fly balls, 17.9% HR/FB, and 36.2% hard contact. Opposing righties have a .196 xISO and .323 xwOBA against him while opposing lefties have a .271 xISO and .404 xwOBA against him. He's allowed the following earned runs per game in his last six starts: seven, seven, seven, four, three, and six. I'm very surprised given the matchup and positive park shift that Oakland's opening implied total of 5.5 runs has been bet down to 5.2 runs. Still, I'll be all over these guys today. Every bat is in play with the obvious Davis, Chapman, Olson, Lowrie being your biggest priorities. Hard to ignore Laureano with how well he's swinging the bat right now even if it is a smaller sample size.

Minnesota Twins (vs. Heath Fillmyer)

Fillmyer just faced these guys only a few days ago and got rocked, allowing six earned runs with only one strikeout in 2.1 innings of work. Typically, when a pitcher faces an offense for the second time in a short time frame, they are at the disadvantage. So if he got crushed the first time, then what do we think happens today? I would prioritize the right-handed bats here where he's allowing a .225 xISO and .390 xwOBA. Based on that, I really like Polanco (.356 wOBA), Garver (.348 wOBA), Austin (.246 ISO, .317 wOBA), and Astudillo (.276 ISO, .358 wOBA). You have to like Rosario (.218 ISO, .357 wOBA) who is arguably the best hitter on this team despite Fillmyer appearing to be better against left-handed hitters. I also like Cave (.213 ISO and .345 wOBA). Sano is still day-to-day but I'd have interest if he made the lineup.

Kansas City Royals (vs. Stephen Gonsalves)

A game stack is fully in play here. Gonsalves was on the other side of that recent game when Fillmyer got rocked and guess what? Gonsalves did too! He also only lasted 2.1 innings and gave up five earned runs with only one strikeout. I can't believe people are actually going to attend this game today and watch these guys pitch again. Are they giving away the tickets for free I hope? Whit Merrifield (.180 ISO, .401 wOBA), Adalberto Mondesi (.209 ISO, .344 wOBA), and Salvador Perez (.185 ISO) are my priorities. I also mentioned Jorge Bonifacio in the value bat section. I don't feel as confident in the Royals side as I do in the Twins side, but even some of these guys with poor numbers against lefties can still succeed against Gonsalves. Just trying to pinpoint who is the most likely is difficult. Just build a stack that makes the rest of your lineup work. The Royals have a healthy 4.8 implied run total today.

Congratulations to the winners of yesterday's freeroll!

• 1st Place: goldstein100: 141.40

• 2nd Place: caricatures: 139.90

• 3rd Place: rollercoasternick: 135.70

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @glandry if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@GP_Landry).