Written by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GP_Landry on Twitter

Happy Wednesday everyone! Quick intro today. I’m on the road, so I’m going to get right to it. There are several pitchers I like but, unfortunately, they are all in the mid or upper tier. The value tier today is a complete mess. Rain will continue to be an issue on the east coast, where we have several games today. As of now, nothing looks horrible but it’s definitely worth keeping an eye on. Also worth noting that the wind is expected to be blowing in around 12 miles per hour in Minnesota. This could change, but if it holds, it’s a slight downgrade to the bats and an upgrade to the pitchers. Let’s get to work!

Quick Note: The bullpen report at the end is the same one from yesterday. Since I'm traveling today I didn't have a chance to pull the updated numbers. The stats won't fluctuate very much from day to day at this point in the season, so you can still reference them with confidence if you need to.

High Priced Pitching

Aaron Nola, PHI (vs. WAS) (DK: $11.2K, FD: $11.2K)

There are three top end arms on the board today (at least by name) but this guy stands well above them all. Who is your pick for National League Cy Young award winner this season? Is it Scherzer? He’s in the running every season but the Nationals way underperformed their expectations this season. Is it deGrom? He’s got the best numbers but the Mets suck, which will naturally drag him down. Or is it Nola, who has numbers that are up there with those guys and is on a team that is making a run to play some baseball in October. He has a good opportunity to strengthen his case today going toe to toe with Stephen Strasburg and the Nationals.

You know the story, Nola has been fantastic, especially at home, which is where he will be today. He has a 3.42 SIERA with 26.6% strikeouts, 12.1% swinging strikes, and 0.96 WHIP. In the past 30 days, he’s only trending upward, with a 2.43 SIERA and a massive 35.9% strikeout rate with 15.2% swinging strikes. On top of that, just 5.3% walks and a very impressive 0.78 WHIP. His opponent today is going in the opposite direction. The Nationals certainly can still do some damage. Harper and Soto haven’t disappeared. Eaton and Turner are still notable players to worry about. But after the top of that order, it gets pretty thin pretty quick.

In fact, Nola faced Washington twice in the month of August and wiped the floor with them. He went eight innings in the first start, allowing five hits, zero earned runs, and picking up nine strikeouts. In the second game, he went seven innings, allowing four hits and one earned run with eight strikeouts. The Phillies are not massive favorites, currently -126. Strasburg is getting some love from Vegas as the Phillies implied total has gone from 4.1 runs down to 3.7 runs. But the Nationals total is lower, at 3.4. Nola is the top arm on the board.

This next one is tough. We’ve got two pitchers almost at an identical price. Both of them are highly regarded but they have battled injuries and fatigue this season and haven’t had their best stuff. Let’s do a detailed comparison and see what we can uncover. We’ll start with their full season numbers:

Very, very similar here. Nearly identical across the board. Player two has a higher ERA but both of them have a SIERA that is almost the same. Player one has a slightly higher strikeout rate and swinging strike rate with a lower walk rate and WHIP. There’s not enough here yet to draw any kind of conclusion. Let’s look at the last 30 days and see if we can spot any trends:

Very odd. Player one has been getting rocked with a 6.17 ERA but the advanced numbers suggest he’s actually pitched really well, despite the result. The .417 BABIP is bound to regress and the 2.78 SIERA is really good. He’s also maintaining his high ceiling with a 33.3% strikeout rate and 13.1% swinging strikes. Player two has been mediocre and the ERA and SIERA are similar, suggesting we should continue to expect these results moving forward. The numbers aren’t terrible with a 4.04 SIERA 24.2% strikeouts and 12.4% swinging strikes but I’d have a hard time spending up this high for someone with a SIERA higher than four. Let’s look at the splits to right and left-handed batters. We’ll start with the lefties:

Player one is running away with this. The ERA and xFIP are much lower than player two and the strikeout rate is much higher. The walk rate and WHIP are identical plus the BABIP against player one is higher, which indicates he’s been more unlucky, despite having better results. This might be an easier decision than I thought. Let’s look at right-handed batters:

Player two is, in fact, better against right-handed batters with a 2.96 ERA and 2.64 xFIP and 33.7% strikeout rates. But player one’s 3.15 xFIP and 27.8% strikeouts are fine as well. The rest of the numbers are similar to this side of the plate. Player one is still well in the lead as far as I’m concerned, given the differences we saw elsewhere. This is already over in my eyes, but let’s just check the matchup today to make sure there’s nothing glaring:

Even the matchups are fairly similar. Player one has the team with a lower strikeout rate and higher hard contact (38.1%) but a lower .161 ISO and .311 wOBA. Player two’s opponent strikes out a little more at 24.4% but they have a dangerous .180 ISO and .323 wOBA. I’m sure you’ve figured it out by now, but player one, who I would go with today out of these two, is Luis Severino and player two is Stephen Strasburg. The floor on both of these guys isn’t particularly strong these days but they both have high ceilings. Based on what we just saw, however, I’m siding with Severino today. Would it surprise me if Strasburg had the better game? Definitely not. I’m simply going by what I see in the numbers. The best strategy here might just be to side with the person who’s expected to have lower ownership.

Value Pitching

Felix Pena, LAA (vs. TEX) (DK: $7.3K, FD: $7.1K)

He’s still young and with inexperience comes risk, but Felix Pena is starting to put things together. In the past month, he’s gone six innings or more in five of six starts including two consecutive starts of at least seven innings. He has a 3.11 ERA and 3.92 xFIP during that span with 37 strikeouts to just eight walks in 37.2 innings. He had a masterful twelve strikeout performance on August 21st in only six innings against a tough Arizona lineup. His ERA and SIERA are almost exactly the same this season at 4.04 and 4.05, respectively. He has a solid 22.8% strikeouts and 10.3% swinging strikes. He struggles a little with lefties, which is a red flag considering the left-handed bats in this Texas lineup, allowing a 4.81 xFIP and only 17.2% strikeouts with 9.9% walks and a 1.64 WHIP. They have a .180 xISO and .346 xwOBA against him this season. He’s brilliant against right-handed hitters with a 3.46 xFIP, 27.8% strikeouts with only 5.9% walks and a WHIP at 0.96.

He actually reminds me a lot of Shane Bieber. Great strikeout stuff, struggles a bit with lefties, including the hard contact, but shuts down right-handed batters. He gets a challenging matchup today with the Rangers who have a high .172 ISO and .323 wOBA. On the plus side, they do strikeout 24.2% of the time, which should give Pena an additional boost. This is also a terrible park shift for Texas, going from Globe Life Park, which currently ranks first in runs, to Angel Stadium which is 14th in runs. If he has another strong outing today, there’s a very good chance we’ll be looking at a price tag over $8K his next time out, which would start to get into that territory where you question if he’s worth it. Jump on now before the price catches up to his value.

Chris Bassit, OAK (@BAL) (DK: $4.5K, FD: $6.4K)

I have yet to see anything confirmed yet, so you’ll need to keep an eye on this situation today. I’ll certainly post something in chat once we know more and try to update the article if I can. From what I can tell, Liam Hendriks is going to be the opener for Oakland with Chris Bassit coming in as the follow guy and getting the bulk of the innings. He definitely doesn’t get me excited as a pitching option, with his 4.61 SIERA and only 18.2% strikeout rate, but this should be a sneaky play as people still don’t seem to grasp the concept of a follow guy. And rostering a pitcher in DFS even though he has the “not starting” symbol next to his name.

He’s a minimum price punt that should be able to eat up some innings in a great matchup against the struggling Orioles. They have a very high 24.2% strikeout rate with a very low .123 ISO, .303 wOBA, and only a 79 wRC+. Like I said, he’s far from exciting, but when I look at the other value options today such as Cashner against Oakland (no way), Sanchez against the Red Sox (nope), Odorizzi against the Yankees (yea….no), Skoglund against the White Sox (maybe but no), and Gallardo against the Angels (can’t do it), what is left? I’d rather just pay all the way down and take my chances. Maybe DraftKings should just become a one pitcher site. This SP2 stuff every day is getting old. You don’t need to go here on FanDuel. He’s $1900 more expensive, and since you only need one pitcher, there are enough options to work with.

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

If you’re new to the article, this is the section where I pick an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher to hit a long ball today. If there's a game at Coors Field, I always exclude them from this list because it's too obvious. So just keep that in mind. Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential.

Matt Olson, OAK: 1B (DK: $4.8K, FD: $3.6K)

Yesterday, we talked about the park shift for Oakland being a boost with all the power in this lineup. Unfortunately, they weren’t able to take much advantage of that last night. I like them again tonight, particularly Olson. Cashner is allowing a .230 xISO to left-handed hitters this season. Olson has a .246 ISO and 49.6% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. He also has an absurd 71.4% hard-hit rate with an average exit velocity of 98.7 miles per hour in the past two weeks.

Justin Upton, LAA: OF (DK: $4.1K, FD: $3.6K)

Upton’s numbers are very interesting this season. In his career, he’s always been a lefty killer, with a .233 ISO, .371 wOBA compared to a still solid .202 ISO, .350 wOBA against right-handed batters. This season, he’s been horrible against lefties with only a .103 ISO and .255 wOBA but he’s smashing righties with a .225 ISO and .371 wOBA. In any event, he’ll face the right-handed Gallardo today, who’s allowing a .193 xISO to right-handed batters. He likes to throw fastballs and sliders and, coincidentally, Upton likes to hit those pitches with a .279 xISO against fastballs and a .234 xISO against sliders.

Didi Gregorius, NYY: SS (DK: $4.9K, FD: $3.9K)

Gregorius had himself a day yesterday with a monster performance going two for three with a triple and a home run. He also scored twice and knocked in four. It was his first big day after a long stint on the disabled list and an encouraging sign that he’s back to full strength. Let’s see if we can catch him at the start of a hot streak today. Odorizzi, who allows a ton of fly balls, also allows a .220 xISO to left-handed hitters. Gregorius has a .228 ISO and 37.2% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. He’ll look to build on the momentum from last night.

Value Bats

Similar to the home run watch list, in this section I’ll provide an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher who are priced in the value tier. If I can find someone under priced on both sites, I’ll highlight them. But in some cases, it could be site specific.

Devon Travis, TOR: 2B (DK: $3.6K, FD: $2.5K)

Travis should slide back up into the two spot in the Blue Jays order facing a lefty today. Price has pitched well recently but he’s still allowing a .189 xISO and .324 xwOBA to right-handed hitters this season. Travis has a solid .607 wOBA+ISO and 2.85 FP/PA against left-handed pitching over his last 150 games. One of Price’s most often used pitchers is a cutter which Travis is crushing this season with a .459 xISO and .488 xwOBA. For those of you who like to look at BvP, he’s 7 for 16 against Price, which is very solid.

Welington Castillo, CWS: C (DK: $3.5K, FD: $2.3K)

Castillo has done very little since returning from his 80-game suspension but this is a good spot for him to start to turn things around. He has destroyed left-handed pitching throughout his career, including a .200 ISO, .363 wOBA, and 39.7% hard-hit rate. Skoglund will make his return to the rotation after spending some time on the disabled list. He pitched out of the bullpen recently and now will make a spot start. He’s allowing a .238 xISO and .394 xwOBA to right-handed hitters. Castillo should be able to return value here.

Jackie Bradley Jr, BOS: OF (DK: $4.1K, FD: $2.4K)

The Red Sox clinched a playoff spot last night and today will look to be the first team (only team?) in baseball this season to reach 100 wins. Hopefully they didn’t party too hard because I like this spot for them. Sanchez is brutal against left-handed hitters with a 6.08 xFIP and more walks (15.6%) than strikeouts (15.1%). JBJ has a comfortable .180 ISO and .320 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. He’s 5 for 15 with a home run and five runs batted in against Sanchez in his career. He’s a bit expensive on DraftKings but he’s a great value on FanDuel if you need him.

Stacks on Stacks

Smaller slate so I don’t want to exclude too much here. The Red Sox have a massive total today against Aaron Sanchez, so I’ll consider them to be chalk. Obviously, both teams at Coors Field are in play today. It’s interesting, as Corbin has been good this season and Gray has been good recently. I’m siding with the Rockies more just because they hit left-handed pitching so well. Let’s talk about a few other teams that are standing out.

Chicago White Sox (vs. Eric Skoglund)

The White Sox, as we know, are a boom or bust team. They have an incredibly high strikeout rate but also a lot of power. It’s impossible to tell what you’re going to get from them each day. They did get some help back recently with Jose Abreu being activated, and while Welington Castillo has done nothing since returning from his suspension, he is a career power monster against lefties and could provide an additional boost to this lineup today. Eric Skoglund, the Royals starting pitcher, is just returning from some time on the disabled list. Prior to getting hurt, he had a 4.52 SIERA with only 17.8% strikeouts and 8.1% swinging strikes. He was allowing 37% fly balls and a well above average 16.7% HR/FB with 44.2% hard contact. Despite nearly 30% strikeouts, you have to love Matt Davidson here with his .235 ISO and .391 wOBA. I mentioned Abreu, who is the other top option in this lineup. Castillo is obviously in play, though risky, but his price helps with that risk. Ryan LaMarre has a .356 wOBA, Avisail Garcia has a .227 ISO, .338 wOBA, and Tim Anderson has a .186 ISO and .329 wOBA. The player to fade here is Moncada, who will likely slide down to the bottom of the order as he struggles with left-handed pitching. Chicago opened with a 4.7 implied run total that is now up to 4.9.

Los Angeles Angels (vs. Yovani Gallardo)

The Angels are not my favorite lineup to stack from a roster construction standpoint. The best four options on this team are Trout, Upton, Calhoun, and Ohtani, who are all in the outfield. On FanDuel, with the utility spot, you could make that stack work, but on DraftKings somebody has to get left out. Regardless, we have to like this matchup today, though against a really bad Yovani Gallardo who has a 5.60 SIERA and only 13.6% strikeouts (5.6% swinging strikes). He also has 11.5% walks and a 1.60 WHIP. Perfect stacking material. I mentioned your best options already. Trout (.313 ISO, .451 wOBA), Ohtani (.353 ISO, .445 wOBA), Upton (.223 ISO, .370 wOBA), and Calhoun (.199 ISO). We also have Simmons, who lacks power but has a solid .322 wOBA.

Some of the younger guys on this squad including Fletcher, Arcia, Young, Ward, and Briceno don’t have the best numbers (a few of them hit lefties really well and we could always get one out of the bullpen) but all of them have flashed plenty of upside in the past, even with a low floor. Plus, they are inexpensive, which will make it easier to fit them in with Trout or Ohtani if you wanted to go with a full Angels stack. Angels Stadium is a sneaky hitter friendly park. I typically think of all those west coast stadiums as being very pitcher friendly but this one is middle of the pack in runs scored and top ten in home runs allowed. The Angels, at the moment, have the second highest implied run total on the board at 5.2. Behind the Red Sox (5.6 runs) but ahead of both teams at Coors.

Oakland Athletics (vs. Andrew Cashner)

I’m going to talk about Oakland this entire series. The Baltimore rotation is very poor and this is a fantastic hitting environment for these powerful Oakland bats. Andrew Cashner has a 5.30 SIERA, above his already bad 4.89 ERA, with 14.7% strikeouts and a 1.54 WHIP. He’s allowed three earned runs or more in five of his last seven starts dating back to the beginning of August and has never had more than four strikeouts during that span. This lineup let me down last night but we talked yesterday about how well they’ve been hitting recently, with a .212 ISO, .349 wOBA, and 124 wRC+ in the last 30 days.

Once again, we have Khris Davis leading the charge with his .309 ISO and .376 wOBA. I mentioned Matt Olson earlier in the article with his .244 ISO and .343 wOBA. Matt Chapman (.274 ISO, .387 wOBA), Jed Lowrie (.223 ISO, .374 wOBA) and Stephen Piscotty (.219 ISO, .349 wOBA) round out my priority list for this club. I’d expect Ramon Laureano to lead off again. I’m not completely ready to buy into him yet with the small sample size but it’s hard to ignore the success he’s had so far (.311 ISO, .396 wOBA) and I’d have no problem including him. At the moment, there is no line for this game as there are still some question marks surrounding the Oakland pitching situation. Once things are set, I would anticipate the Athletics being one of the highest implied totals of the day somewhere between the Red Sox and the teams at Coors Field today.

Bullpen Report

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