Written by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GP_Landry on Twitter

Welcome back everybody. The big story on today’s slate is Chris Sale. I know a lot of you don’t want me to announce this but I’m going to at least let my LineStar family know. Boston will be implementing the “opener” and “follower” strategy, better known as the Tampa Bay strategy, for the remainder of Sale’s starts as part of his rehab process. Today, he’s only supposed to go two innings. His next start, he’ll go three and the last start of the season, he’ll go four innings. Just trying to strengthen his shoulder before the playoffs. “Nasty” Nate Eovaldi, who’s been anything but nasty recently, will be his follow guy and get the bulk of the innings in this game.

I get it that you are all hoping people won’t know about Sale and roster him, but I can’t imagine this won’t be a well-known story by the time lock rolls around. Then again, it’s September, and it feels like people still don’t understand what the Rays are doing, so I could be wrong. FanDuel is attempting to bait us into using Sale by setting his price all the way down at $7K but don’t fall for the trap. He’s not 100% and he won’t have a long enough leash to pay it off. Outside of that situation, this is a big slate, and there’s also a game at Coors, so we have quite a bit to talk about. The top two pitchers are pretty clear cut and we’ll talk about them. Value pitching, as usual, is a bit more tricky, but there’s some potential for us tonight. As far as the weather goes, there are rain threats all up and down the east coast as Hurricane Florence approaches. For those of you in the path of the storm, please stay safe. None of the threats, for the moment, seem to be presenting a huge PPD risk but it will definitely be something to keep an eye on. Make sure to leave yourself enough time to make an adjustment if it’s needed.

High Priced Pitching

Jacob deGrom, NYM (vs. MIA) (DK: $13.5K, FD: $11.8K)

Third time is a charm right? After being scratched on Sunday, and the game being postponed yesterday, we’ll give it another shot with deGrom on the hill today. I’m still shocked at the price difference between the two sites, but at least today he is actually the most expensive pitcher on FanDuel. They were smart today and priced Sale way down, knowing that he’s only pitching the “opener” role. DraftKings still has him way up at $13.6. I really shouldn’t have to tell you much here for you to know that deGrom is an option today. He had his start pushed back from Sunday but it was weather related. The Mets didn’t want to risk him possibly getting hurt pitching under less than ideal conditions. I was thinking the same thing could happen yesterday but the game ended up getting called early. Today, the weather is still iffy and the ground is still very wet. The grounds crew for the Phillies were using flamethrowers apparently in an attempt to dry the field but it didn’t work. We’ll see how things turn out today.

He’s been about as good as you can get in the second half of the season, with a 1.67 ERA and 2.62 xFIP in nine starts. He has 81 strikeouts to just 12 walks during the span while allowing a total of 12 earned runs in 64.2 innings of work. That’s 11.27 K/9 and 1.67 BB/9. Not too shabby. His full season numbers are just as ridiculous. He has a 2.90 SIERA with 31.3% strikeouts and 15.1% swinging strikes alongside a 0.96 WHIP. As if that wasn’t enough, he gets a great matchup today against a weak Miami team. The Marlins continue to hang around the bottom of the league against right-handed pitching. They have a 22.5% strikeout rate with a .122 ISO and .293 wOBA this season. There is nothing to overthink here, with Sale not pitching a full game, deGrom is your best pitcher on the board. He’s my cash game arm tonight and he’s obviously in play for tournaments as well.

Mike Foltynewicz, ATL (@SFG) (DK: $11.2K, FD: $10.2K)

Newcomb was outstanding last night, going six innings, allowing three hits and an earned run while racking up eight strikeouts. At this point, I’m going to be all in on basically any pitcher who faces the Giants the rest of the way. We talked yesterday about how volatile Newcomb has been but we still had enough confidence in him due to the matchup to use him for our rosters. For the most part, Folynewicz has been very steady and someone we should have a lot more confidence in today. Since the beginning of August, he has given up more than two earned runs just once in seven starts. He’s gone six innings or more in six of those seven starts. He’s 3-2 with a 3.76 xFIP and 46 strikeouts in 44.2 innings of work. His full season numbers support his recent success as well. He has a 3.73 SIERA with 27.8% strikeouts and a comfortable 1.12 WHIP. He’s always had some trouble with lefties throughout his career, though it’s been much better this season, with a 4.03 xFIP and 27.4% strikeouts. He’s lights out against righties, with a 3.33 xFIP and 28.1% strikeouts.

In case you missed my speech on why we need to attack the Giants with pitching yesterday, I’ll summarize it for you again. On the season, they have a 22.6% strikeout rate, with a .132 ISO and .292 wOBA. In the past 30 days, the strikeout rate is up to 27.1% with a .106 ISO and .253 wOBA. In the past two weeks, a 31.5% strikeout rate with a .135 ISO and a .250 wOBA. They are checked out. They have already started thinking about next year and just hoping the next few weeks go by as quickly as possible. If you wanted to go here in cash, I definitely wouldn’t talk you out of it. I still feel better about deGrom, for obvious reasons, but if there were ever a matchup that puts Foltynewicz at least in the conversation with somebody like deGrom, this would be it. He’s an outstanding tournament option tonight.

Value Pitching

Shane Bieber, CLE (@TB) (DK: $8.4K, FD: $8.9K)

For the mid-tier today, Bieber is standing out. The rookie continues to impress and he’s been a steady value pitcher for us all season. He’s rarely let me down and I’m not going to stop using him now. He’s in the middle of a string of below average starts, allowing three, three, four, four, and three earned runs in his last five outings. But what’s encouraging is the xFIP is much lower than the ERA and the BABIP is above average in every one of those starts. Since the All-Star break, he’s 4-2 in nine starts with a 3.23 xFIP and fifty one strikeouts with just eight walks in forty eight innings of work. His 9.56 K/9 and 1.50 BB/9 are very impressive. During that span he has six starts with thirty or more FanDuel points (Fifteen or more DraftKings points).

His season long numbers are equally impressive. He has a 3.49 SIERA with 24% strikeouts, 11.4% swinging strikes, and only 4.1% walks. The red flag is against lefties, where he has a 5.32 ERA and 51.5% hard contact but the xFIP is nearly two runs lower at 3.43 and he still has a 24.9% strikeout rate. If you’re a right-handed batter, good luck. He has a 2.79 xFIP, 23% strikeouts, 1.1% walks, and 1.09 WHIP. I remember when Bieber first got called up and I did a write-up about him prior to his Major League debut. The one thing about him that jumped off the page was his ridiculous strikeout to walk ratio but I didn’t think there was any way he could sustain that at the next level. I was wrong. On top of all this, it’s a solid matchup. The Rays have some upside, no question, and their .325 wOBA and 107 wRC+ are both notable, but the 22.5% strikeout rate and .151 ISO make this a plus matchup for Bieber tonight. It doesn’t hurt that the game is in Tampa Bay, which only helps the outlook of the pitchers. The statcast numbers aren’t pretty, I fully admit that, but everything about his advanced stats suggest positive regression and a bit of bad lucky recently. Even in the poor starts, he’s still managed to salvage his fantasy day with strikeouts. If I’m going for anyone in the mid-tier today, this is where I’m landing.

Mike Fiers, OAK (@BAL) (DK: $9.4K, FD: $7.6K)

Before we talk about Fiers, I will say that I originally had Keller in this spot as my value pitcher. He’s not typically the type of pitcher that I roster, as he has a really poor ceiling and very little strikeout upside. But the floor is strong, he’s good at limiting damage, and if there were ever a spot for him to pick up a few extra strikeouts, today would be that day against a strikeout happy White Sox team. I ended up taking him out, however, when I noticed the major price discrepancy between the two sites on Fiers that needs to be highlighted.

I’m not sure how I originally overlooked this, but Fiers is $1800 less today on FanDuel than he is on DraftKings. This puts him firmly in play on FanDuel only in a plus matchup where he should be able to exceed salary expectations. Perhaps a change of scenery and being a member of a playoff team was all that Fiers needed to ignite a fire. He’s been fantastic since being acquired by Oakland, going 4-0 in six starts with a 2.94 ERA and 3.18 xFIP. He has thirty five strikeouts and just six walks in 33.2 innings pitched. He’s faced some really difficult competition during that stretch as well, including the Yankees, Seattle twice, the Dodgers, and the Rangers. All teams that are more than capable of putting up big numbers. Tonight, he gets the opposite of these teams.

Over the last thirty days, Baltimore has a very high 24.2% strikeout rate with a very low .123 ISO, .303 wOBA, and only a 79 wRC+. Cedric Mullins is certainly an exciting player and some of these younger guys are at least giving Baltimore fans something to cheer for, but they have a long way to go and I’m certainly not shying away from using pitchers against them. The Orioles have one of the lower totals on the board today at just 3.8 runs and Oakland is a big favorite at -183. Again, for me, this is FanDuel only as the price on DraftKings is getting a bit crazy. But he’s been really good and NOBODY will pay that price for him on DraftKings. So if you wanted to throw a dart in a large field tourney, you could. It’s not my type of play but I get it. I’ll take the value that FanDuel is giving us instead.

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

If you’re new to the article, this is the section where I pick an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher to hit a long ball today. If there's a game at Coors Field, I always exclude them from this list because it's too obvious. So just keep that in mind. Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential.

Shohei Ohtani, LAA: OF (DK: $5.7K, FD: $4.5K)

Is there a hotter hitter in baseball right now? In the month of September, Ohtani is 11 for 27 with a .683 wOBA and a .696 ISO. He has four home runs with nine runs scored and eleven runs batted in. During that span, he has a 77.8% hard-hit rate and an average exit velocity of 98 miles per hour. Insane. As the icing on the cake, he also has three stolen bases. He’ll face off against the right-handed Sampson today, who is making his first start since being recalled. Ohtani has a ridiculous .801 wOBA+ISO against right-handed pitching.

Matt Chapman, OAK: 3B (DK: $4.9K, FD: $4K)

This very dangerous Oakland Athletics lineup gets a major park upgrade today going from Oakland Coliseum (29th in home runs) to Camden Yards (5th in home runs). That spells serious trouble for Alex Cobb who is allowing a .221 xISO and .371 xwOBA to right-handed hitters. Chapman has a huge .274 ISO, .387 wOBA and 44.3% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. Cobb throws his fastball 63% of the time and Chapman has a .329 xISO against that pitch type.

Robinson Cano, SEA: 2B (DK: $4.6K, FD: $3.5K)

Bryan Mitchell is brutal against lefties outside of his high groundball rate. He has a 5.99 xFIP with only 11.8% strikeouts and 17.2% walks. The positive part about targeting groundball pitchers is that when they do allow a fly ball, a high percentage (in this case 10.5%) go for home runs. Opposing left-handed hitters have a .180 xISO against him this year. Cano will step in today with a .576 wOBA+ISO against right-handed pitching over his last 150 games. He also has an outstanding 45.7% hard-hit rate and an average exit velocity of 95.7 mph in the month of September.

Value Bats

Similar to the home run watch list, in this section I’ll provide an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher who are priced in the value tier. If I can find someone under priced on both sites, I’ll highlight them. But in some cases, it could be site specific.

Hernan Perez, MIL: OF (DK: $3.5K, FD: $2.5K)

Perez is one of those value bats that you can always rely on in a pinch when you’re trying to put lineups together, if he’s facing a left-handed pitcher. He constantly goes overlooked despite having a .216 ISO, .329 wOBA, and 40.5% hard-hit rate against lefties. He gets a great matchup today against Jose Quintana, who has a 4.72 xFIP with below average 19.8% strikeouts and well above average 11% walks against righties. They have a 35.5% hard-hit rate along with a .202 xISO and .358 xwOBA against him this season. There is a really good combination of floor and upside here for this price tag.

Freddy Galvis, SDP: SS (DK: $3.1K, FD: $2.8K)

Galvis is basically a free square every time the Padres face a lefty. He typically leads off, which is crazy for someone priced this low, and he has a solid .171 ISO and .333 wOBA with 38.6% hard-hits. Marco Gonzales will be on the hill for Seattle and, while overall I’m a huge fan of his, I’ll need to see something before I can trust him. He was flat out awful prior to being shut down for a while with a neck issue, allowing 23 runs over his last 20 innings (10.35 ERA). He did not go on a rehab assignment, but instead did a throwing program and a bullpen session prior to today. We’ll talk more about this matchup in the stack section, but for now, Galvis is too cheap.

Rowdy Tellez, TOR: 1B (DK: $3.5K, FD: $2.6K)

Tellez has certainly made his presence known since being recalled a week ago. He’s gone 8 for his first 19 with a .583 wOBA and .500 ISO. He has a home run, three runs scored, and four runs batted in. There’s a good write-up about him on Minor League Ball if you want to learn more. Basically, he has good plate discipline with above average power and profiles to be a solid contributor as a first basemen or designated hitter. So far, so good. Today, if you can stomach two innings against Sale, he’ll face off with Eovaldi who, in addition to being really bad recently (hence why he’s now in the bullpen) has struggled with lefties all season including a 4.45 xFIP and only 17.6% strikeouts. We’ll talk about the Blue Jays as a whole in a couple of minutes.

Stacks on Stacks

There are a lot of stacks that I like today. Obviously, the game at Coors, Seattle against Bryan Mitchell, the Yankees against a Twins bullpen game, the Rangers against an Angels bullpen game, the Red Sox have a massive total against a struggling Borucki, and the list goes on and on. I don’t think any one stack will be high enough owned to make you want to fade purely based on game theory. If I had to choose two teams to exclude, they would be the Rockies and Diamondbacks just because they are at Coors. Two of my three favorites today are likely to be very unpopular opinions, so I’ll be curious to hear what you guys think.

Toronto Blue Jays (vs. Chris Sale and Nathan Eovaldi)

Let me repeat myself one more time... Sale is only pitching two innings. DraftKings completely missed this memo, apparently, because he is still the most expensive pitcher on the slate today and all the Jays bats are dirt cheap as if they were facing him for a full game. This is a major inefficiency in the market for us to exploit. The only bat on Toronto today over $4K is Justin Smoak. Grichuk checks in next at $3.8K and after that, everyone else is $3.5K or below. Weirdly, on FanDuel, they are aware of Sale’s “opener” role because he’s only $7K today but the Toronto bats are still dirt cheap as well. Morales is the most expensive bat at $3.5K and it’s all downhill from there.

I know the LineStar community is high on Eovaldi, thanks to my colleague @ZeroInDenver and, to be honest, I considered him as a pitching option since he should be sneaky as the follower today. But the bottom line is he’s been bad lately. I can’t bring myself to pull the trigger on him until he shows some improvement. Since the start of August, he’s 1-3 in seven starts with a 5.04 ERA and a 4.70 xFIP. He has just twenty strikeouts, with seventeen earned runs in 30.1 innings of work. The Blue Jays are an excellent team against right-handed pitching, with a .191 ISO, .329 wOBA, and 108 wRC+ this season. There is simply too much opportunity for these Toronto bats to greatly exceed value today with their prices in this matchup.

San Diego Padres (vs. Marco Gonzales)

I’m not going to trust Gonzales until he shows me something. I talked about it earlier but he was brutal before getting shutdown. In his last four starts, he’s 0-4 with a 10.35 ERA (4.30 xFIP) and twenty three earned runs and only seventeen strikeouts in 20 innings. The xFIP being so much lower than the ERA certainly suggests positive regression but it’s still over four. Those of you who have read the Daily Ledger throughout the season know I’m a big fan of San Diego bats against lefties. With Gonzales likely shaping up to be a popular option on DraftKings today, at his price tag, I’m hoping the Padres will provide us some good leverage on the field. They have some ridiculous numbers against left-handed pitching this season including Reyes (.820 wOBA+ISO), Renfroe (.653 wOBA+ISO), Myers (.607 wOBA+ISO), and Galvis, who we already talked about (.506 wOBA+ISO). On top of those guys, we also have Luis Urias, who is obviously dealing with a much smaller sample size, but has a massive .989 wOBA+ISO. These guys are also all very cheap, which is an added bonus. Vegas, as usual, doesn’t agree with me on this take as the Padres have a very low total of only 3.3 runs. But Vegas never agrees with me when I like San Diego. There’s a lot of upside here, they just need to put it together.

Oakland Athletics (vs. Alex Cobb)

Alright, with the two more "off the board" options out of the way, I’ll end with one that I think others will be on as well, but I really like anyway. Oakland is mashing the baseball right now, with a .212 ISO, .349 wOBA, and 124 wRC+ in the last 30 days. They get a massive park upgrade today, playing in one of the most hitter friendly environments in all of baseball. Cobb has flashed some occasionally solid performances but he’s far from someone we’d want to avoid. He’s allowing a .190 xISO, .336 xwOBA to lefties and a .221 xISO, .371 xwOBA to righties this season. This entire Oakland lineup is in play. Khris Davis is the top priority with his .667 wOBA+ISO this season and a 91.4 mph average exit velocity in the past two weeks. We talked about Matt Chapman already, so no need to repeat myself there. Matt Olson smashes right-handed pitching with a 49.6% hard-hit rate. Jed Lowrie (.527 wOBA+ISO) and Stephen Piscotty (.527 wOBA+ISO) are both very much on the radar. We also have Ramon Laureano, who is batting at the top of the order now, with a huge .766 wOBA+ISO, though it’s a much smaller sample size. Oakland has a 5.3 implied run total today and they should feast in this spot.

The Bullpen Report

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