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No freerolls on the weekend!

Written by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GP_Landry on Twitter

Labor Day weekend is here! Hope you are all having a great day so far. The true opening day of college football is kicking off as we speak and the NFL is right around the corner. Holy Kahlil Mack trade by the way. How are you feeling about Jon Gruden these days Oakland fans? Tonight, we have a 13 game main slate. It’s an important day in baseball as this is the first day of roster expansion. That means a Major League team’s roster expands from the 25-man active roster to the entire 40-man roster. From here on out any player on the expanded roster as of August 31st can play for the team. If you want to get up to date on the latest moves that have been happening I suggest following @MLBRosterMoves on Twitter. They will send out real time updates on roster changes and a lot has happened over the past few days. There’s quite a bit of pitching on tonight’s slate so while I’ll highlight my favorite four below they aren’t the only players I have interest in. Stacks are interesting we’ve had what feels like a week of multiple teams with massive implied totals but today there are only two teams who are both just barely over five runs. Could make for an interesting tournament slate if ownership will be spread out. The game in Chicago between the Red Sox and White Sox is the only weather concern I’m seeing for the moment but that could definitely change so as always leave yourself time to check the forecast before rosters lock tonight and always have a backup plan. Let’s get to it!

High Priced Pitching

Clayton Kershaw, LAD (vs. ARI) (DK: $12.1K, FD: $11.6K)

The crucial series between these two clubs continues into the weekend. Arizona holds a small lead after they split the first two games but a couple of wins for the Dodgers on Saturday and Sunday would change all that. Their ace, who looks like himself again for the first time in a long time, will take the hill tonight in a pivotal game three. There are a lot of big name pitchers on this slate such as Strasburg, Paxton, Snell, and Corbin and they are all priced below Kershaw who is in a difficult matchup. This Diamondbacks team hits left-handed pitching really well including a .181 ISO and .334 wOBA. So, why pay up? I’m always looking for a combination of floor and ceiling whenever I get it and despite being more expensive than these other guys Kershaw, in my opinion, has by far the best situation in the high tier today. Strasburg and Paxton, while cheap for their talent, both have serious question marks around their health right now and are very hard to trust. Snell is in a more difficult matchup against the Indians and Corbin is also in a difficult matchup against the Dodgers and has some red flags that lower his floor today despite his obvious upside. This, in my eyes, makes Kershaw worth his cost as he really brings the best of both worlds. Safety and upside. His recent form has been fantastic going seven or more innings in each of his last three starts while giving up one, one, and two earned runs and striking out nine, seven, and nine again. He’s only walked one batter total in the three games. His season long numbers are fantastic as always. Perhaps not “Vintage Kershaw” but they are pretty damn close. He has a 3.23 SIERA with 25.2% strikeouts and 11.5% swinging strikes. He’s allowing 4.1% walks and a WHIP of exactly one. The LOB% is excellent at 80.5% and the groundball rate is high at 48.7%. His splits to both sides of the plate are solid with a 3.08 xFIP, 25.2% strikeout rate, and 2.8% walk rate to lefties and a 2.92 xFIP, 25.1% strikeout rate, and 4.4% walks to righties. The Diamondbacks have the lowest implied total on the main slate today at 3.1 runs and the Dodgers are -168 favorites. Don’t overthink it. He’s the best pitcher on this slate.

Jon Gray, COL (@SD) (DK: $8.8K, FD: $9.2K)

Like I said, I really don’t trust these guys priced below Kershaw until we get to Gray who gets a great matchup today against the Padres. He’s coming off a rough start against the Angels but I’m not about to discount him for one bad performance. Prior to that he’d been very consistent since returning to the major league level. He’s benefitting from positive regression which we’ve been expecting from him all season with an ERA (4.76) that’s significantly higher than his SIERA (3.42). Since he was recalled, he’s had 27, 24, 23, 28, 6, 24, 21, and 3 fantasy points on DraftKings. On FanDuel, he’s had 47, 40, 41, 49, 17, 43, 38, and 8. Obviously some bumps along the way but overall the fantasy production has been really solid. His opponent today, San Diego, further boosts my confidence in his ability to get the job done. They are near the bottom of the league against right-handed pitching with a 24.8% strikeout rate, a .138 ISO, and a .301 wOBA. Multiple members of this team have over a 25% strikeout rate including Renfroe (29.4%), Wil Myers (30.4%), Spangenberg (30.4%), Hedges (28.2%), Reyes (31.8%), and Galvis (25.3%). The Padres have a low implied total of 3.5 runs and the Rockies are comfortable -140 favorites today. I like him as a pivot off of Strasburg and Paxton who I just can’t get on board with today until I’ve seen them get back to their more consistent performances.

Value Pitching

Eduardo Rodriguez, BOS (@CWS) (DK: $8.2K, FD: $8.6K)

I’m never a big fan of using a pitcher who is making their first start off the disabled list but I’m going to make an exception here for a few reasons. First, this was an ankle injury so he’s been able to play catch and keep the arm warm even while on the shelf. Second, he’s made multiple rehab starts and been outstanding in each. In his first one he went four innings allowing only one hit, zero earned runs, and striking out eight. In the second one, he went another four scoreless innings with six strikeouts. Granted, both of these starts were in Double-A but that’s enough to convince me he’s feeling pretty good. The third reason I like him is because you can essentially count his matchup today as another minor league rehab start, although this time we’ll say it’s at the Triple-A level. Sorry for those of you who are Chicago fans I don’t mean any disrespect but a 26.6% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching with a .309 wOBA is pretty gross. There’s some power no question especially from Matt Davidson but he’s just as likely to strikeout as he is to hit a home run so I’m not going to fade based off one player. Another bonus today is the price tag. In his last start before going on the disabled list, Rodriguez was $10.7K on DraftKings and today he’s just $8.2K. Assuming he picks up where he left off it won’t be long before that price is back up into the $9K to $10K range. The White Sox have a low implied total of just 3.8 runs and the Red Sox are solid -164 favorites (after opening at -148). I’m still debating if I’ll go here in cash as my SP2 as the first start back from injury does make him a little riskier than normal but it’s hard to argue with the spot he’s in. He’s a great tournament option.

Shane Bieber, CLE (vs. TB) (DK: $8K, FD: $8.3K)

Nothing against Bieber but I’m really angry that he’s my second recommendation today. I originally had Josh James in this space, who is making his major league debut against the Angels today. I was really excited about him as he’s the Astros 6th prospect according to MLB Pipeline. Then, this morning, I come to find out he’s not in the player pool on either site! I can’t believe it. With some of the other players who make their debuts and are available to us I’m shocked James is not on that list. There’s nothing we can do about it but I’m very frustrated to say the least. Rant over. The price on Bieber today is jumping off the page at me in this matchup against a weak Rays team, especially on DraftKings where he dropped $600 despite picking up the win in his last start and getting seven strikeouts in the process. He continues to impress in his rookie campaign with an 8-2 record in 14 starts with a 3.44 xFIP and 83 strikeouts in 79.2 innings. In the month of August he’s 3-0 in five starts with a 3.12 xFIP and 32 strikeouts to only five walks in 28.1 innings of work. The concern is mainly against left-handed hitters so make sure you take a look at the Tampa Bay lineup before officially putting him in your lineups. Bieber has a 4.00 xFIP, 1.60 WHIP, and a putrid 50.4% hard contact rate against lefties. They have a .268 xISO and .376 xwOBA against him this season. The good news is these numbers also come with a .398 BABIP indicating he’s getting unlucky and the upside is still there with a 26% strikeout rate. He’s fantastic against right-handed hitters with a 2.87 xFIP, 22.8% strikeout rate, and an absurd 1.3% walk rate. The Rays have a 22.9% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching to go along with their low .144 ISO and .313 wOBA. The Rays implied total opened at four runs but has dropped to 3.8 so far today. Cleveland is a -120 favorite after opening as just a -107. That would be a much bigger number if it weren’t for Snell pitching on the other side of this matchup. Bieber should be able to get it done today.

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

If you’re new to the article, this is the section where I pick an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher to hit a long ball today. If there's a game at Coors Field, I always exclude them from this list because it's too obvious. So just keep that in mind. Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential.

Matt Carpenter, STL: 1B/3B (DK: $5.5K, FD: $4.3K)

He came through last night and I’m going right back to him again today. Castillo has actually pitched well against the Cardinals this season and if they have their typical right-handed heavy lineup then I think he’s in play. But, he’s allowing 38.9% fly balls, 19.5% HR/FB, and 43.8% hard contact to lefties. This has resulted in him giving up 2.12 HR/9. They have a .255 xISO against him this season. Castillo throws a fastball, changeup, and two-seam fastball to left-handed batters. Carpenter has a .435 xISO against fastballs, a .250 xISO against changeups, and a .417 xISO against two-seam fastballs. For the record, his price also dropped $300 on FanDuel today despite putting up 25 fantasy points last night.

Cedric Mullins, BAL: OF (DK: $4.3K, FD: $3K)

A cash game core play for me yesterday that paid off in a big way I’m likely going back to him again today in a matchup with Heath Fillmyer. Mullins appears to be everything Baltimore is hoping for and more. In his short time in the majors he’s 20 for 72 (.317 AVG) with a .238 ISO, .401 wOBA, and only a 15.3% strikeout rate. As far as today’s matchup goes, he has a .313 ISO and .454 wOBA against right-handed pitching. Fillmyer has a rough 4.67 xFIP against right-handed batters and a very low 14.9% strikeout rate. He’s allowing a .243 xISO and 87.3 mph average exit velocity. Mullins has a good chance to make it two home runs in as many days.

Daniel Murphy, CHC: 2B (DK: $4.2K, FD: $3.9K)

Anyone else besides me still not used to see a Cubs logo next to Murphy’s name? Similar to his teammate last night, Eflin is yet another Phillies’ pitcher who is very strong against right-handed hitters but very weak against left-handed hitters. From a home run perspective, he has a 42.1% fly ball rate with a 15.3% HR/FB which has led to 1.83 HR/9 allowed this season. Opposing lefties have a .223 xISO against him. Murphy, meanwhile, has a very strong .610 wOBA+ISO over his last 150 games and an average exit velocity of 90.8 miles per hour over the past two weeks against right-handed pitching. Eflin throws his fastball 50% of the time to lefties while mixing in a changeup and two-seam fastball to a lesser extent. Murphy has a .240 xISO against fastballs, a .347 xISO against changeups, and a .184 xISO against two-seam fastballs.

Value Bats

Similar to the home run watch list, in this section I’ll provide an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher who are priced in the value tier. If I can find someone under priced on both sites, I’ll highlight them. But in some cases, it could be site specific.

Ryan O’Hearn, KC: 1B (DK: $3.7K, FD: $2.6K)

Hits a home run last night, ends up going three for five with a run scored and four runs batted in, and today will face Dylan Bundy who leads the league in home runs allowed with 34. Yet, his price dropped $200 on DraftKings? It increased on FanDuel but by a measly $100 bucks. Technically, he’s outside of the value threshold that I’m typically aiming for ($3.5K or less on DraftKings, $2.5K or less on FanDuel) but he’s close enough and such a great value today that I had to include him here. He has a ridiculous .926 wOBA+ISO and 3.04 FP/PA against right-handed pitching this season. In the past two weeks he’s had an average exit velocity of 97.5 miles per hour against righties. Bundy has given up at least one home run in nine straight starts and in four of those games he gave up multiple home runs. O’Hearn is a steal today yet again.

Jake Cave, MIN: OF (DK: $3.7K, FD: $2.6K)

Originally I was planning to write up Eddie Rosario as a home run candidate for tonight then I noticed he has a “game-time decision” tag (thank you LineStar) and when I looked it up it appears he’ll miss about a week. That led me to Cave, who may move up in the order tonight as a result and is in a fantastic spot. He has a .194 ISO this season and a .534 wOBA+ISO over his last 150 games against right-handed pitching. Gallardo is allowing a .185 xISO and .351 xwOBA to left-handed hitters. His most common pitch types are a fastball, two-seam fastball, and slider. Cave has a .344 xISO, .395 xwOBA against fastballs, a .181 xISO, .334 xwOBA against two-seam fastballs, and a .286 xISO (only a .308 xwOBA) against sliders. Let’s not forget he’s also playing in Globe Life Park which is one of the best environments in all of baseball for offense. Like O’Hearn, he’s just above that value price point I usually look for but this is simply too good of a spot to ignore.

Devon Travis, TOR: 2B (DK: $3.4K, FD: $2.6K)

It would be even better if he gets moved up in the order which is always a possibility against a lefty but either way I like him today. He dominates left-handed pitching but is always underpriced. He has a .593 wOBA+ISO and 2.18 FP/PA against lefties over his last 150 games. On the season he has a .214 ISO and .334 wOBA against left-handed pitching. That’s a lot of upside at a typically weak second base position. It’s a great matchup as well with Chen having an awful 5.57 xFIP, only 15.7% strikeouts, and a very high 10.2% walk rate against right-handed hitters. Travis should have no issues returning value today.

Stacks on Stacks

For tonight’s slate I’m going to assume Houston and Minnesota are the most obvious stacks. Houston gets a nice matchup against Felix Pena who has a lot of upside but is still struggling in his young career. The Twins will get a lot of attention against a bad right-handed pitcher, in that ballpark, in 92 degree heat. Both of these teams are tied for the highest implied totals of the day at 5.2 runs. I like both teams but I’ll exclude them from this list since they should carry the most ownership. Let’s see what else we can find today:

Baltimore Orioles (vs. Heath Fillmyer)

These young guns on the Orioles still have a long way to go but this team has the ability to do some damage from time to time. This is shaping up as a great spot against Heath Fillmyer. He has a 5.38 SIERA which is over a run higher than his 4.21 ERA and a .255 BABIP which suggests he’s been lucky up to this point. If regression is going to hit him I want to have exposure to the teams he’s pitching against when it happens. Fillmyer also has a super low 13.8% strikeout rate which will really limit his ability to get out of trouble when he needs to. Cedric Mullins, who I already highlighted earlier, is one of my favorite players on this slate. He is smashing right-handed pitching with a .313 ISO, .454 wOBA and a ridiculous 7.4% strikeout rate. With Fillmyer only striking out 15.4% of batters Mullins is pretty much guaranteed to put the ball in play every time he digs in tonight. Renato Nunez is another up and coming asset who has a .174 ISO and .357 wOBA against righties. Trey Mancini is white hot right now. He didn’t produce last night but still has four multi-hit games in his last six including eight runs scored and nine runs batted. Joey Rickard was recently recalled and he has some power upside with a .191 ISO against righties. Don’t be afraid to include the faithful veterans Jones and Villar as well. Baltimore opened with a 4.6 implied run total that is already up to 4.9 runs.

Kansas City Royals (vs. Dylan Bundy)

You think Bundy has been having nightmares about this game? Let’s take a quick trip down memory lane to the last time the Royals faced him. It was May 8th. Bundy allowed five hits, four home runs, seven earned runs, and two walks WITHOUT RECORDING AN OUT. That’s right, he was yanked before he could record a single out and gave up four home runs. Obviously, that doesn’t mean that’s what will happen today but it certainly doesn’t hurt our confidence about this spot either. The Royals came through in a big way last night and I don’t expect that to change today. Bundy has allowed seven, seven, seven, and four earned runs in his last four starts. He’s allowed 16 home runs in his last nine starts! The more I write about this matchup the more I’m afraid the Royals will be chalk today. I’m really hoping the low talent level of Kansas City will prevent them from being crazy high owned. This is also a huge slate so I’m weighting ownership less than normal. Regardless, Kansas City got Brian Goodwin back yesterday and I wouldn’t be surprised of Jorge Soler was activated today. He’s currently on a rehab assignment and with rosters expanding it makes all the sense in the world for him to be activated. It could be a new look Kansas City lineup tonight. The Royals opened with an implied run total of five runs but it has fallen to its current implied total of 4.7. Perhaps that scares some people off. I won’t be one of them.

Texas Rangers (vs. Jose Berrios)

Berrios is only 24 years old and the future is very bright but it’s been all downhill for him since the All-Star break. I’m guessing it could be arm fatigue will the full workload he’s had this season but that’s just speculation on my part. Prior to the break, he was one of the better pitchers in baseball, with a 3.72 xFIP and 127 strikeouts to only 29 walks in 127.1 innings. After the break, he’s had a 4.31 xFIP allowing sixteen earned runs and seventeen walks in 36.1 innings. The most concerning stat is the walks. He walked 15 batters in his first 14 starts this season but has walked 31 batters in 13 starts since. The Rangers are a dangerous team, especially at home, so I don’t have much faith this will be the spot for Berrios to find his early season form. Texas has a .177 ISO and .331 wOBA including a 39.5% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season. The highlights include Choo (.230 ISO, .397 wOBA), Odor (.230 ISO, .355 wOBA), Gallo (.269 ISO, .341 wOBA), Profar (.192 ISO, .337 wOBA), Mazara (.343 wOBA), and Chirinos (.207 ISO, .333 wOBA). As a team, they do strikeout a lot so that does provide a boost to Berrios, but they also walk a lot which is very dangerous. They have a solid implied run total of 4.9 runs. I’ll be curious to see if the public tries to chase his early results or if they side with the Rangers bats today.

The Bullpen Report

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @glandry if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@GP_Landry).