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Written by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GP_Landry on Twitter

Welcome to a very ugly Thursday slate. We have only six games tonight. One of them is at Coors Field, which always makes things interesting, and the two top pitchers on the board are actually facing each other. I’ll tell you up front, this is a good night to either take the day off or reduce how much you put in play. I’m likely building a team to take a shot in a single entry tournament and calling it a night. The theme of today’s article (outside of the top end pitching) is going to be avoid the chalk. We have three teams (Yankees, Red Sox, and Dodgers) with big implied totals that are well over five runs. They are going to get the majority of the ownership. I like all three of those teams, but from a game theory standpoint, I want to bet against them in tournaments and find other spots that I think can put me in a position to win should they not hit. Those are the teams and players I’m going to focus on today. On a small slate like today, you can forget about floor. The only thing you care about in tournaments tonight is ceiling. We are going to look at some ways to build a team with a high ceiling and significantly lower ownership. If you’re playing cash games, fire away with the Red Sox, Yankees, and Dodgers as they are all in fantastic spots tonight. I just won’t be talking about them at all in this article. No real impact from the weather today. Half of the games on the main-slate are indoors. It’s hot in New York so give a boost to the bats there. It’s also hot in Colorado but those bats really can’t be boosted anymore than they already will be. Good luck today!

High Priced Pitching

Justin Verlander, HOU (vs. SEA) (DK: $12.4K, FD: $11.8K)

For high end pitching today, there are really only two options. The numbers between Verlander and Paxton are so close that it’s borderline infuriating to choose between them. Verlander has a 2.73 SIERA with 33.7% strikeouts and a 13.8% swinging strike rate which is identical to Paxton. His walk rate is outstanding at 4.6% and the WHIP is an elite 0.88. He’s strong against both sides of the plate. To lefties, he has a 3.02 xFIP, 37% strikeout rate, and a 0.90 WHIP. To righties, he has a 3.37 xFIP with 30.9% strikeouts and a 0.85 WHIP. The reason for such a higher price compared to Paxton is because Verlander is on absolute fire right now. Here are his number of strikeouts per game in the last ten starts: 7, 10, 6, 8, 10, 6, 12, 11, 7, and 14. That’s five double-digit strikeout games in ten starts and three in his last four starts. With all that said, there is one potentially concerning point worth bringing up that I noticed in my research. It actually started earlier in the week when I made the decision to fade Charlie Morton against the Giants because I noticed he hasn’t been pitching very deep into games. It turns out, for the most part, that Houston pitchers seem to be getting the hook very early these days. Morton and Cole have both only gone seven innings just once in their last ten starts. Keuchel has gone seven innings four times and McCullers has gone seven innings three times during that same span. Verlander has only reached seven innings three times in his last ten starts as well. I’m not sure if this is just a coincidence, or perhaps a strategic move to rest their rotation a little more down the stretch, or just Houston realizing how strong their bullpen is and not being afraid to lean on them more. Either way, I’d prefer a stronger innings floor for someone that I need to invest over five figures in to roster, especially when Verlander is $1800 more expensive on both sites. Does that mean he’ll go less than seven innings tonight? No, absolutely not. But there was enough consistency across each pitcher on this staff that I wanted to point it out. For comparison sake, Paxton has gone seven innings or more in seven of his last ten starts. Because of this, among other factors that we’ll talk about more in a minute, I’m taking Paxton in cash today. In tournaments, the easy answer is I’m taking whoever is lower owned. According to Vegas, Paxton should also be lowed owned, considering he’s a +147 underdog but I’m going to venture a guess that, because of the difference in price, people will be less apt to play Verlander today than they should be. In a vacuum, assuming ownership and price didn’t matter, I would go Verlander because of all that strikeout upside he has and how well he’s pitching right now. He’s my top tournament option of the night.   

James Paxton, SEA (@HOU) (DK: $10.6K, FD: $10K)

We’ve already touched on Paxton a little but let’s dive a little deeper to further illustrate a few points. If you throw out the game he got hurt, he’s gone seven or more innings in five straight starts and seven of his last ten. He’s had at least seven strikeouts in seven of ten starts including three double-digit strikeout games. Not quite as good as Verlander, especially recently, but still well above average. Paxton has already faced Houston twice this season and is 2-0 in those games. On 4/16, he went six innings, allowing three hits, one earned run, and getting seven strikeouts. On 6/5, he went 7.2 innings, allowing nine hits, but only one earned run, with six strikeouts. What might be most appealing about Paxton today is the matchup. While the Astros are expected to activate Carlos Correa for this game, they are still without George Springer and Jose Altuve, so this lineup is far from full strength. I think this adds to Paxton’s floor and ceiling. On the season, he has a 2.94 SIERA with 32% strikeouts and 13.8% swinging strikes and the WHIP is outstanding at 1.07. As I mentioned earlier, he’s strong against both sides of the plate. Has a 2.07 xFIP, 35% strikeouts, and 7% walks to lefties and a 3.17 xFIP, 31.3% strikeouts, and 6.3% walks to righties (which is what he’ll mostly see tonight). The negative part about Paxton is the fact that he’s a +140 dog today due to Verlander being the opposing starter. But Houston still has a low implied total of 3.8 runs. Taking into account the analysis on both pitchers, I’m sticking with Paxton in cash today. I believe his floor is higher right now given that he’s been pitching much deeper into games and I like his matchup better against a watered down Houston lineup. His ceiling is slightly lower than Verlander, so if my assumption is correct that more people will take the savings with Paxton, even in tournaments, I will gladly find a way to pay all the way up to Verlander at lower ownership. It will be interesting to see if the money line or implied totals on this game shift at all throughout the day and figuring out what direction the rest of the field will go. I’m fine with either player. I’m simply looking for the path of least resistance to the top of the leaderboard.  

Value Pitching

Tyler Anderson, COL, (@LAD) (DK: $5.9K, FD: $6.8K)

I’m going to start this one out very simply. I’m not confident in this pick. This is purely a decision that is based on game theory. Nobody ever feels good about rostering a pitcher at Coors Field. But value pitching today is basically non-existent and, although I do like Andrew Suarez, I’m not confident enough in him as a chalk value pitcher. In a tournament, at very low ownership on a small slate, I’m going to take the massive discount we are getting on Anderson today and hope it works out. There are some positives worth highlighting. For starters, the Dodgers go from second in the league against right-handed pitching to 23rd in the league against left-handed pitching. They have a .156 ISO, .302 wOBA, and 91 wRC+. They also strikeout 22.2% of the time Now, granted, we haven’t had a lot of time to gather data with both Machado and Dozier in the lineup, so I admit the Dodgers are likely to improve against lefties down the stretch. Tyler Anderson is a talented pitcher whose price has plummeted simply because of where he is pitching today. Yet, he’s gone at least six innings in eight of ten starts and has had at least eight strikeouts in four games during that same span. Not bad for a guy only priced $5.9K on DraftKings and $6.9K on FanDuel. The bad news is he’s faced the Dodgers already in Coors this season and it didn’t go very well. He went five innings, allowing seven hits, five earned runs and only four strikeouts in a no decision. This game was in Coors. Obviously not the result we want today. But the good news is when he faced them in Los Angeles, he went eight innings, allowing four hits, zero earned runs, and getting eight strikeouts. Even if he can land somewhere in the middle of both of his previous starts, that would be more than enough to pay off his cheap price tag today. Anderson has a 4.24 xFIP with 22.5% strikeouts, and 11.7% swinging strikes (third highest swinging strike rate on the board behind Verlander and Paxton who are tied for the highest). Lefties have a below average .140 xISO and .301 xwOBA while righties have a .175 xISO and .295 xwOBA against him. Bottom line? Anderson is super risky but he does have the upside. This is all about how this ugly slate sets up today. People will automatically cross the pitchers at Coors off of their list today because, well, it’s Coors Field. It’s not pretty, but my strategy tonight is looking like I’ll be pairing Anderson with either Paxton or Verlander and then stacking the Rockies (who may go low owned on this slate despite being at home). This will still give me a team with a very high ceiling (albeit with a much lower floor but I don’t care about floor on a six game slate) and have completely different roster construction from everyone else. It’s purely a game theory strategy and there is zero guarantee that it works.

Andrew Suarez, SFG (vs. PIT) (DK: $5.1K, FD: $7.3K)

Suarez has been fairly consistent recently. He’s gone ten straight starts with at least five innings pitched. That’s a pretty solid innings floor for someone priced as inexpensive as he is today. Outside of this last game, where he was tagged for eight earned runs, he’s done a good job with run prevention. In seven of his last ten starts, he’s allowed three earned runs or fewer. He had a streak of six straight starts in June and early July where he didn’t give up more than two earned runs in any start (four in a row were just one earned run each). Today, he gets a matchup with the Pirates, who are fine, but not scary against left-handed pitching. They rank 17th in the league with a .165 ISO, .314 wOBA, and a 96 wRC+. They have a 21.9% strikeout rate to lefties which will give a little boost to Suarez. On the season, he has a 3.82 SIERA with 20.9% strikeouts and a 50.2% groundball rate. The big red flag with him is the 39.6% hard contact rate but the BABIP against him is high at .324, indicating a little bad luck may be involved. He’s outstanding against lefties, with a 2.59 xFIP, 22.4% strikeouts, only 2.8% walks and a 0.84 WHIP. He forces 63.6% groundballs and only allows 26.3% hard contact. The right-handed bats are when things get sketchy BUT his numbers suggest he’s pitching better than advertised and he should see some regression. He has a high 5.03 ERA but a comfortable 3.90 xFIP. There’s still some strikeout upside at 20.4% and he keeps the walks down at 6.9%. His 1.51 WHIP and 44% hard contact rate are not ideal but the BABIP is at .348. Between the xFIP being a run below the ERA and the BABIP being well above average, we can assume he’s pitching better to right-handed hitters than what’s actually happening on the field. Does that suddenly mean things will turn around today? No, but it means I’m willing to buy low on him because the advanced numbers are telling me he’s worth more than his current price. He’s in play as an SP2 in cash games and you can consider him as a cheap punt pitcher for tournaments. I do believe he’ll be popular with a lack of value pitching available to us on this small slate. The Giants opened as -125 favorites and that has climbed to -134 overnight. The Pirates have one of the lowest implied totals on the board today at 3.8 runs. This should draw most of the SP2 ownership to Suarez since nobody will want to play Tyler Anderson in Coors Field today.  

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

If you’re new to the article, this is the section where I pick an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher to hit a long ball today. Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential.

CJ Cron, TB: 1B (DK: $4.2K, DK: $3K)

This is not the best park for home runs but David Hess has really been that bad. He allows 48.3% fly balls, a 16.3% HR/FB, and 2.36 HR/9 to left-handed hitters. They have a .238 xISO against him this season. Cron has a .233 ISO and 38.1% hard-hits against right-handed pitching. He profiles well against Hess’s pitch types, which are a fastball and slider. Cron has a .363 xISO against fastballs and a .217 xISO against sliders.

Jurickson Profar, TEX: SS (DK: $4.6K, $3.8K)

Happ has struggled since joining the Yankees and this will be his first start after landing on the disabled list with hand, foot, and mouth disease of all things. He’s giving up 43.6% fly balls, 14.2% HR/FB, and 1.50 HR/9 to righties. Profar has a .200 ISO against left-handed pitchers and only strikes out 10.5% of the time. Happ throws a fastball nearly 60% of the time to right-handed batters and Profar has a .288 xISO against fastballs.    

David Dahl, COL: OF (DK: $5.3K, FD: $3.2K)

Traditionally, I exclude players from Coors Field on the home run watch list because they are so obvious. But the way this slate is shaping up, I’m not convinced the Rockies are going to be a chalk team tonight like they typically are when playing at home. We’ll talk about this more soon. In the meantime, David Dahl is a steal on FanDuel today at only $3.2K. His price has sky rocketed on DraftKings since he returned to the major league roster, but I still think he’s worth it even over there. He has a .270 ISO and 37.9% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season. Stripling has given up eleven home runs in his last ten starts. I’m going to be attacking him a lot today and Dahl, especially on FanDuel, is a great place to start. 

Value Bats

Similar to the home run watch list, in this section, I’ll provide an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher who are priced in the value tier. If I can find someone under priced on both sites, I’ll highlight them. But in some cases it could be site specific.

Kendrys Morales, TOR: 1B (DK: $3.4K, FD: $2.9K)

I originally had Morales on the home run watch list during my initial research. Then I factored in his price and realized how inexpensive he was today. He’s much better when he bats from the left-hand side against right-handed pitching. He has a .203 ISO, .345 wOBA, and 45.4% hard-hit rate. Porcello allows a .227 xISO, .342 xwOBA, and 40.9% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. Morales also matches up extremely well against two-seam fastballs (.225 xISO) and sliders (.335 xISO) which are Porcello’s most often used pitches.  

Tim Beckham, BAL: 3B/SS (DK: $3.3K, $3.3K)

Despite being difficult to predict matchups against the Rays because you never know who they are going to roll out at pitcher and when they don’t really have anyone we need to be afraid of (outside of Blake Snell) so I’m pretty comfortable recommending a Baltimore bat in this situation. Beckham presents nice value today at his very low price tag and hitting near the top of the order. In his last 20 games, he is 22 of 87 with a .385 wOBA and a .216 ISO. He has seven multi-hit games during that span.

Brandon Lowe, TB: 2B/OF (DK: $2.9K, FD: $2.3K)

We are really going bargain hunting on this slate today. Value bats are hard to come by, but if you really need a cheap option, you could take a shot on Rays prospect Brandon Lowe. He’s hitless since being called up but it’s only been two games. He was crushing in Triple-A this season. In 46 games, he had a .309 ISO, a .432 wOBA, and a .994 OPS. Since he crushes minor league level pitching, I figured today was the perfect day to recommend him since he’ll get to take on a minor league level pitcher in David Hess, who is pitching in the majors because of how awful the Orioles are. Hess has a 5.62 xFIP with only 16% strikeouts and allows a .238 xISO and .355 xwOBA to left-handed hitters. Look for Lowe to pick up that first hit today with the upside for more, especially at this dirt-cheap price.  

Stacks on Stacks

In this section I'll highlight three of my favorite stacks. Generally speaking, I'll exclude the most obvious "chalk" stacks (such as when a game is at Coors Field) because you don't need me to tell you those teams are in play. Be sure to keep an eye on the Vegas lines throughout the day as line movement can always shift interest in stacks.

Colorado Rockies (vs. Ross Stripling)

Normally, I exclude both teams at Coors because they are mega-chalk and you guys know they are in play. But this crazy slate tonight calls for a different approach. The Rockies, despite being at home, have just the fourth highest implied total on a six game slate. With an unusually low total, at home against an All-Star pitcher, it’s very possible they will go lower owned than they should. But Stripling is making his first start off of a short stint on the disabled list. Rumors were swirling about a possible injury or even arm fatigue just before he landed on the DL. He hasn’t gone over six innings in seven straight starts. In his last two starts before hitting the disabled list, he went just 4.2 innings, allowing seven hits, five earned runs (three home runs) and only six strikeouts against the Phillies. And then in his very next start, he went four innings, allowing seven hits, four earned runs, and only five strikeouts against the Braves. I need to see something from Stripling before I can use him and that means I’m happy to roster the Rockies against him, especially when the game is at Coors. The usual suspects are in play for Colorado. Against right-handed pitching, it starts with Blackmon, who has a .243 ISO and .364 wOBA. David Dahl is back, and in a small sample size this season he has a .239 ISO and .405 wOBA, Story has a .237 ISO and .362 wOBA, Gonzalez has a .219 ISO, .355 wOBA, Arenado: .201 ISO, .336 wOBA. It's definitely possible I'm wrong, and Colorado still gets the majority of the ownership because they are at home. But looking at the Vegas lines, I think they stay just below that threshold and they'll be my favorite stack on the board. 

Toronto Blue Jays (vs Rick Porcello)

On a slate this small, you have to find lineups with plenty of upside but are also different from the field. With the Dodgers, Red Sox, and the Yankees getting so much attention, and Porcello being the third most expensive pitcher on this slate, Toronto should be incredibly sneaky tonight. Don’t get me wrong, I think Porcello is a good pitcher, but he’s far from perfect. Most notably, he allows a .190 xISO, .342 xwOBA, and 40.9% hard-hits against left-handed batters. This plays perfectly into Toronto’s strengths. I’ve said this about a billion times in these articles, I love using Toronto against right-handed pitching because of how their lineup sets up. They add Granderson to the order. Morales and Smoak both get to hit from the left side, which is their stronger side, and Grichuk has reverse splits and smashes right-handed pitching. That’s a lot of power at the top of the order. Toronto also profiles very well against Porcello’s pitch types. He throws a slider, a fastball, and a two seam fastball most often. Some of the highlights against those pitches include: Granderson: .192 xISO, .344 xwOBA versus fastballs and a .197 xISO against sliders. Smoak: .394 xISO, .435 xwOBA versus fastballs, a .329 xISO, .416 xwOBA against two-seam fastballs, and a .207 xISO, .355 xwOBA against sliders. Hernandez: .360 xISO, .391 xwOBA versus fastballs, .253 xISO, .350 xwOBA versus two-seam fastballs, and .253 xISO versus sliders. Morales: .450 xISO, .506 xwOBA versus fastballs, .225 xISO, .462 xwOBA versus two-seam fastballs, .335 xISO, .401 xwOBA versus sliders. I think you get the point. There’s a lot to like about the Blue Jays today and I think they fly under the radar relative to several other teams on this small slate. There has been some slight line movement on this game already (very slight) as Toronto’s implied run total has gone from 4.2 to 4.3 runs.     

Tampa Bay Rays (vs. David Hess)

I don’t normally like to stack teams in this ballpark, but on small slates like today, we have to ignore some of those “unwritten rules” that we follow in order to give ourselves enough options to work with. This is a great spot for this Tampa Bay lineup against David Hess, who has a miserable 5.48 SIERA, 14.1% strikeout rate, and a 1.54 WHIP. Hess hasn’t made it to six innings in any of his last seven starts. He’s allowed five earned runs or more in seven of his ten major league starts this season. The downside here, of course, is that both of his major league wins did in fact come against this same Tampa Bay team, but I’m willing to overlook that to focus on the larger sample size which tells us that Hess isn’t any good. The priorities on this team are CJ Cron, who we already discussed on the home run watch list, and his .232 ISO and 38.1% hard-hit rate and Jake Bauers with his .248 ISO and 45.2% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. Since the start of July, Mallex Smith is 32 of 95 (.395 AVG) with a .456 wOBA and a .210 ISO. He also has ten stolen bases during that span to add to his upside. Matt Duffy and Joey Wendle don’t hit for any power but they do have a solid .320 wOBA and .330 wOBA, respectively. I already talked about Brandon Lowe as well in the value bats section. He is only two games into his major league career but had huge numbers at the Double-A and Triple-A level this season and is basically facing a Triple-A level pitcher today. Tampa Bay is a big -184 favorite and has a 4.7 implied run total, which is the largest implied total over a team’s season average on the board today. He should be well off of everyone’s radar, even on this small slate, and it’s a great spot for them to put up some big numbers.  

The Bullpen Report

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @glandry if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@GP_Landry). Don't forget to sign up for today's freeroll! 

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