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Written by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GP_Landry on Twitter

Big shout out to LineStar user @Lion22 for taking down three GPPs on FanDuel last night for over $30K in winnings! This is why we play. Do the work, stay patient, manage your bankroll, and good things will come. Congratulations my friend. Hard work pays off. Well deserved!

Who’s next? We’ve got a nine game main slate to talk about tonight. Similar to yesterday, we have some solid top-tier pitchers to work with but value pitching is a bit sketchy (but workable). What’s interesting about this main slate is that both the game at Coors Field and the game at Globe Life Park are not part of it, so all the ownership concentrated on each of those games the last couple of nights will be going elsewhere. We’ll need to keep that in mind when making decisions in tournaments. There are still plenty of good spots for bats, but without those two games that really stand out and this being a smaller slate in general, we are looking at one or two teams likely becoming chalky. As far as weather is concerned, looks like small threats of rain in both Washington and Cleveland but neither are overly concerning at this point (still very early). We have high temperature games in Washington (90 degrees), and Kansas City (94 degrees) so you can give a bump to the bats there. Four of the nine games on this slate are indoors. I'm not seeing an impact from the wind in any game. Let's win some more money!  

High Priced Pitching

Clayton Kershaw, LAD (@OAK) (DK: $12.8, FD: $11K)

After what felt like forever, Kershaw finally appears to be getting some of that consistency back that we’ve relied on for so long. He’s won four of his last six starts and he’s gone at least six innings in each of them. He has seven or more strikeouts in three of his last four after having gone six straight starts without reaching that number. Over his last 66 batted balls allowed, he has a 57.6% groundball rate with only 22.7% hard contact allowed and a very low average distance of 179.7 feet. On the season, despite dealing with injuries and some inconsistencies, he’s still managed to give up more than three earned runs only twice in sixteen starts and never more than four earned runs. He has a 3.27 SIERA, 25.5% strikeout rate, and 11.5% swinging strikes. He only walks 4.9% of batters faced, with a 1.07 WHIP and an 82.2% LOB%. He also gets 48.6% groundballs. One concern, surprisingly, is the trouble he’s having against left-handed batters this season. He still has a very good 2.97 xFIP and 25.6% strikeouts but also allowing a .191 xISO, .341 xwOBA, and 44.3% hard contact, which has resulted in 2.18 HR/9. But there’s only one lefty we really need to be worried about in this lineup, Matt Olson, and he only has a .119 ISO and .309 wOBA against left-handed pitching. Kershaw is outstanding against right-handed hitters, including a 2.99 xFIP and 25.4% strikeout rate. The WHIP is at 1.00 and the groundball rate increases to 52%. Opposing right-handed hitters have only a .117 xISO and .280 xwOBA against him. The money line opened at -159 last night and has grown to -168 already this morning. Oakland has a low implied total of just 3.3 runs. Kershaw is a fine option for both cash games and tournaments tonight.   

Luis Severino, NYY (@CWS) (DK: $11.9K, FD: $9.4K)

While Kershaw seems to be getting his consistency back, Severino is literally going the opposite direction. He’s gone seven innings or more just twice in his last ten starts and five innings or less in half of those starts. He’s had seven or more strikeouts only three times in that same span and he’s given up four earned runs or more four times. In his last three starts, he’s been hit hard for four, six, and six earned runs in only 5.2, 4.1, and 5 innings of work, respectively. Two of those games were against the Rays and the Royals! So the question is, what the hell is going on with Severino? The truth is, I’m not sure. It could be a cold streak, he could be hurt, or maybe he’s been a bit unlucky (his 3.77 xFIP compared to a 4.40 ERA and the .340 BABIP in the last ten starts support the unlucky theory). What I do know is that, as DFS players, we could potentially turn this negative into a positive. This is a good matchup for Severino, against a weak White Sox lineup who ranks 22nd in the league against right-handed pitching. They have a very high 25.5% strikeout rate (fourth most in baseball) and a low .308 wOBA and 30.7% hard-hit rate. On a normal night, before this streak of bad starts, Severino would be a cash game lock and your chalk pitcher of the evening. Today, I think people will put more weight than they should on recent results and stay away from him. This makes him an elite option for the rest of us willing to stomach the risk in tournaments. Recent results or not, this is still a player with a 3.34 SIERA, 27.6% strikeout rate, and 12% swinging strikes.  He’s currently the largest favorite on the board today at -270 and the White Sox have the lowest implied total of the day at 3.2 runs. I won’t do this in cash games, I need to see something from him before I can consider him a safe option again, but I’m banking on this being the night he turns things around, when everyone else has jumped ship, and he wins somebody this slate.  

Value Pitching

Trevor Richards, MIA (vs. STL) (DK: $7.8K, FD: $7.7K)

There’s a couple of things that stood out to me as I looked into Richards as a possible option on tonight’s slate. First, he’s in a bit of a rhythm at the moment. He’s gone at least six innings in three of his last four starts (5.2 innings in the other game). He’s had at least six strikeouts in his last three starts (6, 8, 7), and he hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in five consecutive starts (two of those he allowed zero earned runs). In addition to the recent form, he prefers to pitch at home (like he is tonight) in the pitcher friendly environment of Marlins Park. He’s 2-2 in seven starts at home (compared to 1-4 in nine starts on the road) with a solid 3.99 xFIP and 1.17 WHIP (compared to a much worse 4.83 xFIP and 1.60 WHIP on the road). But let’s be honest, who wouldn’t prefer to pitch in Marlins Park? It currently ranks 28th in runs scored and dead last in home runs allowed, which always provides some additional safety to the pitchers. Today, he’ll matchup with a struggling Cardinals team that is just 21st against right-handed pitching this season. They have a 21.8% strikeout rate with a low .149 ISO and .311 wOBA. The Cardinals, as we know, are right-handed heavy, where Richards has a less than ideal 4.47 xFIP. But the BABIP against him is incredibly high at .383, suggesting he’s really pitching better than what’s actually occurring on the field. He still manages to get slightly above average strikeouts at 20.1% and he has a really strong strikeout rate against lefties at 25.2%. He’s far from safe, so this is a tournament only recommendation, but early activity in Vegas suggests the sharp money agrees. The Cardinals implied total has dropped overnight from 4.4 runs at opening to 4.2 runs currently and the Marlins went from a +127 underdog to currently +108. At this pace, they will be favored before lock. With Chacin (who I do like today) getting most of the attention in this price range against the Padres, I think Richards makes for an interesting pivot option in tournaments with considerably less ownership.  

Jhoulys Chacin, MIL (vs. SDP) (DK: $7.5K, FD: $8K)

Chacin gets a nice matchup today against the Padres, who are the worst team in baseball against right-handed pitching. They have a 25.9% strikeout rate, which is the highest in the league, and a very low .121 ISO, .283 wOBA, and 78 wRC+. We’ll start with the bad news. Chacin struggles quite a bit with left-handed hitters. He has a 5.42 xFIP, 14% strikeout rate, and 11.2% walks. Opposing lefties have a .178 xISO and .365 xwOBA against him. But the good news is there aren’t any left-handed hitters in this lineup for us to be worried about (hence why they are the worst team in the league against righties). Hosmer is having a miserable season and has just a .147 ISO and .328 wOBA against right-handed pitching. Spangenberg has a .143 ISO and .295 wOBA, Jankowski has a .074 ISO, and .307 wOBA, and Galvis has a .085 ISO and .268 wOBA. Any concerns about Chacin against lefties are basically washed away when you consider the opponent. Against right-handed hitters, we get a completely different story. He has a 3.81 xFIP, 24.4% strikeouts, and a 0.93 WHIP. Right-handed hitters have just a .146 xISO and .300 xwOBA against him this season. He’s far from perfect but this is a favorable spot for him. His floor gets a boost since his biggest weakness against lefties is diminished by the fact that the Padres lefties are struggling. His ceiling also gets a boost with the amount of strikeouts available in this lineup. Milwaukee is currently a -177 favorite and the Padres have an implied total of just 3.9 runs. He’s in play for cash games as your SP2 on DraftKings and you can consider him for tournaments if, by some miracle, he’s not popular (I doubt that very much). But otherwise, I would pivot elsewhere.  

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

If you’re new to the article, this is the section where I pick an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher to hit a long ball today. Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential.

Mitch Moreland, BOS: 1B (DK: $4.1K, FD: $3.2K)

After being almost non-existent for several weeks, Moreland has homered now in two of his last three games and has six runs batted in (four last night alone) during that span. His price is still on the low side on both sites, so this is feeling like a good time to jump back on before he starts to completely rake again and the cost skyrockets as a result. I don’t know much about this opposing pitcher Hauschild tonight, as the sample sizes are too small. His minor league numbers were fine but certainly nothing to shy away from. The one thing standing out to me is that he throws a sinker, slider, and fastball. Moreland crushes all three of these pitch types including a .332 xISO against fastballs, a .288 xISO against sliders, and a .420 xISO against sinkers. Let’s make it three home runs in four games tonight.

Francisco Lindor, CLE: SS (DK: $5.8K, FD: $4.7K)

A terrible matchup for Odorizzi which we’ll talk about in more detail shortly. He’s an extreme fly ball pitcher, allowing 48.6%, which is one of the highest rates in the league. He gives up 50% fly balls to lefties with a 13.3% HR/FB and 1.84 HR/9. Lindor has 27 home runs on the season but hasn’t hit one in ten games. He has more power as a left-handed hitter facing right-handed pitching with a .282 ISO and 42.4% hard-hits. He also profiles well against Odorizzi, who throws a fastball nearly 60% of the time and a split-fingered fastball another 22% of the time. Lindor has a .253 xISO against fastballs and a .196 xISO against split-fingered fastballs.  

Joc Pederson, LAD: OF (DK: $4.4K, FD: $2.8K)

Pederson is a borderline value play on FanDuel today. We have a $1600 difference between the two sites, that should automatically be a red flag that something is off. Pederson has a massive .308 ISO and 42.9% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season. Fiers allows a .251 xISO including 46% fly balls, 14% HR/FB, and 38.6% hard contact. Of the twenty home runs he’s allowed this season, which, by the way, is tied for 12th worst in the league, 12 of them have been to left-handed hitters. This isn’t the best park for home runs but Pederson is underpriced, especially on FanDuel, and has more than enough power to hit it out of any park.  

Value Bats

Similar to the home run watch list, in this section, I’ll provide an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher who are priced in the value tier. If I can find someone under priced on both sites, I’ll highlight them. But in some cases it could be site specific.

Matt Kemp, LAD: OF (DK: $3.3K, FD: $2.7K)

Kemp’s price continues to fall, particularly on DraftKings, which makes him a player I can’t overlook. I’m going to talk about the Dodgers in more detail soon, but for now, just know that Mike Fiers allows a .226 xISO and .328 xwOBA to right-handed hitters. I prefer Kemp against lefties where there is more power upside (only a .152 ISO against righties) but the wOBA is still solid at .332 with 41.1% hard-hits. In this matchup, with these numbers, and for this price, he’s a steal on both sites today.

Tyler Flowers, ATL: C (DK: $3.5K, FD: $2.5K)

As usual, because he splits time with Suzuki behind the plate, Flowers is incredibly undervalued and set to face a left-handed pitcher tonight. Milone, admittedly, has been good since being recalled. But it’s still a small sample size and he’s inexperienced. Flowers also has a small sample size against left-handed pitching this season with a .250 ISO and .524 wOBA in just 40 at-bats. I’m going to side with Flowers on this one. He’s simply too cheap for this spot and has plenty of upside to exceed the return you’ll need on his incredibly low price.

Devon Travis, TOR: 2B (DK: $3.7K, FD: $2.4K)

With Brandon Drury and Lourdes Gurriel both out of the lineup for a while, we should get an everyday role from Devon Travis (and possibly a higher lineup spot!) He’ll matchup today with the left-handed Brian Johnson, who is allowing a .191 xISO and .345 xwOBA to right-handed hitters this season. Travis has fantastic numbers against lefties this season including a .238 ISO, .361 wOBA, and 32.7% hard-hits. He’s especially cheap on FanDuel at just $2.4K, but he’s honestly a good value on DraftKings as well, despite being slightly above what I consider to be the value-tier.  

Stacks on Stacks

In this section I'll highlight three of my favorite stacks. Generally speaking, I'll exclude the most obvious "chalk" stacks (such as when a game is at Coors Field) because you don't need me to tell you those teams are in play. Be sure to keep an eye on the Vegas lines throughout the day as line movement can always shift interest in stacks.

Cleveland Indians (vs. Jake Odorizzi)

Occasionally, Odorizzi pops up as an interesting value option on a thin pitching slate because of the upside he brings with his 23.7% strikeout rate and 11% swinging strikes. Today is not a good day to use him as the strikeouts will take a huge hit against a very disciplined Indians team that only strikes out 19.4% of the time against right-handed pitching. This will actually be the fourth time he’s pitched against Cleveland this season and he’s been hit hard in the previous three starts. The first game, on 4/17, he went five innings, allowing six hits, four earned runs, three home runs, and getting six strikeouts. On 5/31, he went 3.2 innings, allowing seven hits, eight runs (seven earned runs), 2 home runs, and getting three strikeouts. Finally, on 6/17, he went five innings again, giving up six hits, four earned runs, and four walks with five strikeouts. As a team, Cleveland is 4th in the league against right-handed pitching with a very high .194 ISO, .332 wOBA, 108 wRC+ and 40.4% hard-hits. Odorizzi has a 1.41 WHIP, 48.6% fly ball rate, 11.4% HR/FB, and 36.1% hard contact rate. He’s allowing a .244 xISO and .362 xwOBA to lefties and a .203 xISO and .339 xwOBA to righties. The Indians have a very healthy implied total of 5.4 runs but could go under the radar on this slate that is once again filled with teams that have massive implied totals. 

New York Yankees (vs. Lucas Giolito)

I’m having trouble seeing a scenario where this doesn’t end very poorly for Giolito tonight. His numbers are flat out gross. He has a SIERA at 5.79 (highest on the slate) with a very low 14.3% strikeout rate and a very high 12.6% walk rate. Against left-handed hitters, he actually has more walks (14.3%) than strikeouts (10.7%) to go along with a 6.85 xFIP and a 1.71 WHIP. Against righties the strikeouts go up to a whopping 18.1% (yes, I’m being sarcastic) and the walks decreases to a more comfortable 10.9% (again, sarcasm). Lefties have a .251 xISO and .420 xwOBA against him while righties have a .190 xISO and .337 xwOBA against him. It’s beyond me how this guy is still pitching in the majors but here we are. Today, he’ll face the Yankees, who have strong hitters on both sides of the plate that should have a field day against all these weaknesses. Judge or no Judge, there’s still incredible upside in this lineup including Torres (.250 ISO, .356 wOBA), Gregorius (.236 ISO, .351 wOBA), Bird (.203 ISO), Romine (.190 ISO), Stanton (.190 ISO, .325 wOBA), Andujar (.182 ISO, .348 wOBA), Hicks (.181 ISO, .347 wOBA), and Gardner (.322 wOBA). As I mentioned earlier when talking about Severino, the Yankees are the largest favorites on the board at -276 and they are battling with the Cubs and Indians for the highest implied total on the main slate at 5.4 runs.   

Los Angeles Dodgers (vs. Mike Fiers)

Mike Fiers will make his Athletics debut today after being acquired by Oakland on Monday afternoon. Unfortunately, at least for Oakland, I don’t think his career in green and yellow is going to get off to a very good start. He struggles with both sides of the plate and this is a really bad team to have that problem against. They have bats on both sides of the plate that smash right-handed pitching and are ranked 2nd in the majors against righties with a .199 ISO, .335 wOBA, and 112 wRC+. Fiers has a 4.53 SIERA, nearly a run higher than his 3.48 ERA and he gives up 44.5% fly balls and 36.7% hard contact. Left-handed hitters have a .251 xISO and .361 xwOBA against him while right-handed hitters have a .226 xISO and .328 xwOBA against him. Fiers' most often thrown pitch is a fastball, which he uses 40% of the time to both sides of the plate. Here is the Dodgers lineup against fastballs: Taylor .221 xISO, .355 xwOBA, Bellinger .282 xISO, .355 xwOBA, Grandal .374 xISO, .449 xwOBA, Pederson .256 xISO, .377 xwOBA, Kemp .301 xISO, .408 xwOBA, Muncy .305 xISO, .429 xwOBA, Puig .310 xISO, .417 xwOBA, Hernandez .414 xISO, .444 xwOBA, and finally Turner .289 xISO, .454 xwOBA Oh wait! Machado .300 xISO, .433 xwOBA. Okay that’s…..nope, wait a minute. Dozier .272 xISO, .364 xwOBA. Get the picture here? The Dodgers, with this incredible lineup, will be in the stacking conversation virtually every night from here on out. They should be sneaky tonight, with only a 4.2 implied run total, but the ceiling is massive and they are affordable as well.  

The Bullpen Report

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @glandry if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@GP_Landry). Don't forget to sign up for today's freeroll! 

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