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Written by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GP_Landry on Twitter

Tonight brings us a challenging 14-game slate that has tons of bats everywhere but a lack of value pitching to help us afford them. There are eight teams with an implied total of over five runs tonight and a few others just below that line. That alone speaks to just how poor the pitching is in the mid and bottom tiers. We also have Max Scherzer on the hill today but I think there's real merit to fading him tonight with his very high price tag. If you can find a way to make him fit with a lineup around him that you're happy with, you should absolutely go for it. But just know he's facing an Atlanta team that doesn't strikeout very often against right-handed pitching and Scherzer will need a monster night to reach value. The floor is still there for cash games but being able to exceed value in tournaments is questionable. The weather looks calm. I'm seeing only a couple of small threats of rain but nothing to worry about at this point. It could certainly change, so keep an eye on it.

High Priced Pitching

Carlos Carrasco, CLE (vs. MIN) (DK: $11.5K, FD: $10.6K)

If I were writing a DFS glossary of industry words and phrases, I would put a picture of Carrasco next to “Boom or Bust.” I’m not sure there is a better example in the league. Rostering him is exciting because you know how high the ceiling is, but also terrifying because you know the floor is made of glass and could shatter underneath you at any second. His history against the Twins this season further illustrates this point. He’s faced them four times so far this season. He was solid in the first game on April 18th, going seven innings allowing three hits, zero runs, and seven strikeouts. Then he got shelled the next two. On June 1st, he went only 3.2 innings, allowing seven hits, six runs, and just two strikeouts. He followed that up with a June 16th performance that saw him go just 1.1 innings allowing four hits and four earned runs with only two strikeouts. Finally, less than a week ago on August 1st, he went 7.1 innings allowing four hits, zero earned runs and getting 10 strikeouts. You can’t make this stuff up. Because of his volatility, you can never play him in cash games, but he’s an elite tournament play every time he takes the mound. When he’s on, he’s about as good as it gets, with a 3.22 xFIP, 27.8% strikeout rate, 14.1% swinging stikres and only 5.2% walks. He has a 16% swinging strike rate against lefties while allowing only a .158 xISO and 295 xwOBA. He has a 14.7% swinging strike rate against righties allowing a .179 xISO and .303 xwOBA. When he’s off, however, it would be easier to just light your money on fire if he’s on your teams. Alright, so we’ve established the ceiling and floor. Why do we want to play him today other than the upside? Two reasons. First, this will be his second game against the Twins post trade deadline where they sent away two key players in Dozier and Escobar and replaced them with struggling veterans with high strikeout rates. Carrasco shined the last time and there’s no reason he can’t do it again. Second, he’s priced in a kind of “no man’s land” with some solid options below him and then Max Scherzer above him. It’s possible people look to either pay up for Max (which I'm on board with if you can make it work) or pay down and save today, which could leave Carrasco at lower ownership. It’s hard to know for sure where people will land but it’s worth keeping an eye on it. He’s the largest favorite on the board today at -231 and the Twins have a very low 3.3 implied run. Close your eyes, click the plus sign next to his name, and pray.

Zack Greinke, ARI (vs. PHI) (DK: $10.1K, FD: $10.2K)

Greinke feels a little undervalued today on DraftKings where he is actually $100 less than he is on FanDuel. He has a really good matchup against a Phillies team that will take a big park downgrade going from Citizens Bank Park, which is third in home runs allowed, to Chase Field, which has fallen to 18th in home runs allowed this season. Philadelphia has the second highest strikeout rate in baseball against right-handed pitching at 25.8% and the lowest hard-hit rate at only 30.1%. This matchup already happened once this season, where Greinke went six innings allowing nine hits, five earned runs, and had nine strikeouts. It’s important to note that game was in Philadelphia, so while we’d obviously hope for better run prevention tonight, the park shift should automatically help with that. He certainly flashed the potential for double-digit strikeouts as well. Overall, Greinke is solid to both sides of the plate. He has a 3.21 xFIP with 24% strikeouts, and only 4.1% walks against lefties. The WHIP is very low at 1.03 and the LOB% is very high at 83.1%. He’s held them to just a .144 xISO and .315 xwOBA this season. Against right-handed hitters, he has a 3.23 xFIP with slightly higher 27.4% strikeouts and a nearly identical 4.7% walk rate. The WHIP is still outstanding at 1.06 and the LOB% remains nearly the same at 83.1%. The only unfortunate part of his resume is the .221 xISO and 39.3% hard contact allowed. But outside of Hoskins, and maybe Franco, there’s not anyone here that I’m worried can exploit that weakness. Greinke is a comfortable -162 favorite and the Phillies have an implied total of only 3.5 runs.

Value Pitching

CC Sabathia, NYY (@CWS) (DK: $7.4K, FD: $7.3K)

This is a solid spot, in my opinion, to roll out some Sabathia tonight in tournaments. Overall, he has a mix of good and bad parts of his resume. His strikeout rate is low at 18.5% but his swinging strike rate is encouraging at 10%, suggesting an increase in strike outs is coming (tonight’s matchup is a perfect place to start). He also gets 44% groundballs and only allows 28.9% hard contact. He lacks the upside he once had but he does a good job pitching to contact, limiting damage, and keeping his team in the game, which works well more often than not considering the offense he has behind him. Opposing lefties have only a .099 xISO, .274 xwOBA, and only 18.5% hard-hits against him. Opposing righties have a higher but still average .171 xISO, .321 xwOBA, and 30.9% hard-hits. The days that Sabathia typically appeals to me most are when he’s facing a team with a high strikeout rate, as that provides a nice lift to his relatively low ceiling. That’s exactly what we have today, taking on the White Sox, who have the highest strikeout rate in baseball against left-handed pitching at 25.8%. In fact, their numbers against lefties are low across the board including just a .150 ISO, .301 wOBA, and 89 wRC+. In the past month, he’s allowed 27 batted balls, of which 59.3% have been groundballs and only 14.8% hard contact. That has resulted in an average distance of just 180.8 feet. The Yankees are currently the third largest favorite on the board today at -190 (it opened at -185) and Chicago has an implied total that has dropped from 4 runs at opening to 3.8 runs as of now. My assumption is that with a lack of value options today, Chase Anderson will get a lot of attention because of his matchup with the Padres at a similar price point. I think Sabathia can outscore Anderson tonight at less ownership and at a slight discount.

Pablo Lopez, MIA (@STL) (DK: $5.8K, FD: $6.1K)

I’m not really in love with any particular value pitcher on this slate. I think a case can be made for “punting” SP2 (within reason) on a player who should be relatively low owned. For me, that player today is Pablo Lopez. There’s several reasons to be encouraged about Lopez today. First, in his short time so far in the big leagues, he has a solid 3.95 SIERA with 10.3% swinging strikes, so there’s some upside here. He also has an excellent 53.9% groundball rate including 58.3% to righties and 50% to lefties. He’s been fairly consistent, lasting at least five innings in each of his six starts so far. That’s not a huge innings floor but it’s enough for someone priced as low as he is. He also gets a nice matchup today against a struggling Cardinals offense. They are ranked 21st against right-handed pitching with a low .150 ISO, .311 wOBA, and 94 wRC+. They have a 22% strikeout rate, which should give a boost to Lopez’s ceiling today. He also has the added benefit of pitching in Marlins Park, which is the worst park in baseball for home run power and 28th in runs scored. In the past month, Lopez has allowed 63 batted balls, of which only 17.5% have been hard contact and 25.4% have been soft contact. As a result, he has an average exit velocity of just 86.1 mph. He’s an underdog but that’s to be expected for a pitcher that is this inexpensive. The St. Louis implied total is on the lower end of the spectrum today relative to most teams at just 4.5 runs. He’s not safe, so this is a tournament only call, but there’s enough here to work with in this matchup and his salary allows you to pay up for some of the bats you’re going to want exposure to today.

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

If you’re new to the article, this is the section where I pick an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher to hit a long ball today. Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential. Note: I'm excluding the obvious players at Coors Field today.

Jesus Aguilar, MIL: 1B (DK: $5K, FD: $3.4K)

Clayton Richard has given up a home run in three straight starts and Aguilar will look to stretch that to four tonight. He has a .269 ISO and 39% hard-hit rate against left-handed pitching this season. Richard allows a .206 xISO including 43% hard contact. He has a high groundball rate (52.1%) but allows 15.6% HR/FB to right-handed hitters. He throws a two-seam fastball 51% of the time and a slider 27% of the time. Aguilar smashes both of these pitch types including a ridiculous .850 xISO against two-seam fastballs and a .245 xISO against sliders this season.

Rougned Odor, TEX: 2B (DK: $5.4K, FD: $4.1K)

Felix Hernandez continues to struggle with left-handed hitters and gets a huge park downgrade today going from Safeco Field to Globe Life Park. He’s allowing 40% fly balls, 14.1% HR/FB, and 38.7% hard contact. Opposing left-handed bats have a .267 xISO and 84.8 mph average exit velocity. Ten of Odor’s thirteen home runs this season have come against righties. He has a .212 ISO and 44.3% hard-hit rate against them.

Nelson Cruz, SEA: OF (DK: $5.5K, FD: $4.1K)

I’m calling a Cruz home run for the second night in a row. Unfortunately, it didn’t work out last night but I have no reason to not go straight back to the well on this one. Cruz’s power dips against righties compared to lefties but it’s still incredibly high with a .260 ISO and 39% hard-hits. Colon has given up the third most home runs in baseball with 24, and 19 of those have been to right-handed bats. He’s allowing a .264 xISO and 43.7% hard contact. He throws a two-seam fastball almost 70% of the time to righties and then a slider and fastball the remaining 20%. Cruz has a .514 xISO against two-seamers, a .245 xISO against fastballs, and a .200 xISO against sliders this season. Let’s also not forget the massive park upgrade and the ideal hitting conditions he’ll get tonight.

Value Bats

Similar to the home run watch list, in this section, I’ll provide an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher who are priced in the value tier. If I can find someone under priced on both sites, I’ll highlight them. But in some cases it could be site specific.

Ryon Healy, SEA: 1B (DK: $3.9K, FD: $2.3K)

Massive price difference here of $1600 between the two sites. Healy is batting in the middle part of the order on the team currently sitting on the highest implied run total of the night (no Coors line yet). Yet somehow he’s only $2.3K on FanDuel. Colon is terrible against right-handed bats with a 4.38 xFIP, only 14.4% strikeouts while allowing a massive .264 xISO and .369 xwOBA. Healy has a very respectable .213 ISO with 36.5% hard-hits. There's a ton of upside for his price on both sites but especially on FanDuel where he's near the minimum salary.

James McCann, DET: C (DK: $2.7K, FD: $2K)

Yes, he’s definitely having a down season this year even against lefties. But his career .221 ISO and 38.1% hard-hits against left-handed pitching paint a different story. I’m willing to overlook the recent results and focus on the bigger picture for a player priced as cheaply as McCann is today. The Detroit bats are a good source of value all around tonight on both sites. But with McCann’s career numbers against lefties and his .451 xISO, .419 xwOBA, and only 3% swinging strikes against sinkers, which Heaney throws 60% of the time, I have no reason to believe he can’t exceed your extremely low investment in him.

Matt Kemp, LAD: OF (DK: $3.4K, FD: $2.7K)

This one really feels like a mistake on DraftKings’ part. I can’t figure out why he’s listed so cheap, especially when facing a lefty. I suppose it’s possible people over look him because Sean Manaea carries some name value but he’s nothing we need to be worried about. He allows a .235 xISO and .349 wxwOBA to right-handed hitters. Meanwhile, Kemp has a massive .297 ISO and 50% hard-hit rate against left-handed pitching this season. Further adding to this is the fact that Manaea only strikes out 17.3% of the left-handed bats he faces. Assuming Kemp plays, he’s currently listed as day to day, he should have no problem returning value in this matchup.

Stacks on Stacks

In this section I'll highlight three of my favorite stacks. Generally speaking, I'll exclude the most obvious "chalk" stacks (such as when a game is at Coors Field) because you don't need me to tell you those teams are in play. Be sure to keep an eye on the Vegas lines throughout the day as line movement can always shift interest in stacks.

Boston Red Sox (vs. Marcus Stroman)

From a DFS perspective, this is a dream spot for the Boston Red Sox. There are seven teams on this slate with an implied run total of five runs or more. The Red Sox are not one of them. They are just below that mark at 4.9 runs. With so many good places for offenses tonight, there’s a real possibility of us being able to roster the Boston players at very low ownership. We know, regardless of matchup, this team has arguably the highest ceiling of any team in baseball. Stroman is nothing we need to shy away from. Are his numbers pretty good? Sure, he’s got a 3.98 SIERA and a 60.5% groundball rate. But he also has a very low 18.8% strikeout rate and a high 1.49 WHIP. What’s really standing out to me about this spot, however, is how well Boston profiles against Stroman’s pitch types. His two most used pitches to both sides of the plate are a two-seam fastball and a slider. Here are some notable Red Sox players against sliders: Benintendi .358 xISO, .410 xwOBA, Martinez .232 xISO, .343 xwOBA, Bogaerts .244 xISO, .356 xwOBA, Betts .220 xISO, .334 xwOBA, Moreland .288 xISO, .376 xwOBA, and Bradley Jr .237 xISO. Need more convincing? Here are Boston batters against two-seam fastballs: Benintendi .370 xwOBA, Martinez .465 xISO, .508 xwOBA, Bogaerts .405 xISO, .477 xwOBA, Betts .337 xISO, .485 xwOBA, Moreland .345 xISO, .503 xwOBA, and Bradley Jr .524 xISO, .567 xwOBA. Need I say more? Wait! Yes, I do. How about the red hot Steve Pearce? He has a .305 xISO, .427 xwOBA against sliders and a .336 xISO and .453 xwOBA against fastballs. If Jackie Bradley bats ninth in the order, with the numbers I just listed, I love the idea of a wrap-around stack. Please, please let this team be lowed owned tonight.

Seattle Mariners (vs. Bartolo Colon)

I know, I know. I say at the start of this article that I’m going to avoid talking about the obvious stacks and here I am recommending the Mariners against Bartolo Colon. In Texas! This one literally made me laugh out loud when I first saw the matchup. There are a lot of teams with high implied totals tonight, including the game at Coors Field, so it’s possible this isn’t as high owned as it should be. I doubt we’ll be that lucky, but regardless, I can’t pass this one up. The Mariners have a ton of right-handed power in their lineup that hit right-handed pitching very well. Cruz has a .260 ISO and .371 wOBA, Haniger has a .214 ISO and .353 wOBA, Healy has a .213 ISO with 36.5% hard-hits, and Segura has a .330 wOBA. Those are the primary power guys. Colon has no chance when he gives up a .264 xISO and .369 xwOBA to right-handed hitters. After them, we have a solid group of left-handed bats to include as part of the stack. Seager has a .204 ISO, Span has a .180 ISO and .352 wOBA, and Gamel has a .346 wOBA. Colon allows a .197 xISO and .363 xwOBA against lefties. Finally, Zunino has a .218 ISO but the red flag with him is always the high strikeout rate. It shouldn't make a difference tonight, however, considering Colon’s ridiculously low 5.7% swinging strikes against right-handed hitters. The Mariners have an implied run total currently at 5.6 runs, which is best on the slate (the Coors line has not come out yet).

Detroit Tigers (vs. Andrew Heaney)

This is a complete wildcard stack that stood out to me enough that I wanted to bring it up. There are a lot of teams with huge implied totals today which should spread ownership around enough that you don’t need to weigh that as much as you normally would. But if you really want to go off of the board, in a large field GPP, there’s some sneaky upside from Detroit today. Andrew Heaney has massive splits between right and left-handed batters and the Tigers can basically go completely right-handed in their lineup. Heaney has a 4.33 xFIP, 40.9% fly balls, a 13.9% HR/FB, and 42.5% hard contact. Opposing right-handed hitters have a .214 xISO and .344 xwOBA against him this season. Plus, Heaney throws his sinker at least 60% of the time to both sides of the plate. Here’s a look at the Tigers’ lineup against sinkers: Castellanos .347 xISO, .428 xwOBA, Candelario .256 xISO, .430 xwOBA, Jones .201 xISO, Goodrum .447 xISO, .611 xwOBA, Hicks .329 xwOBA, McCann .451 xISO, .419 xwOBA, and Iglesias .437 xwOBA. They also have a lot of success against the changeup, which is what Heaney throws basically the remaining 40% of the time. I’ll admit, Heaney has been pretty consistent. In his last fifteen starts, he has failed to reach at least six innings only three times. But one of those times was against this Detroit team where he went five innings, allowing eight hits, five earned runs, and getting only three strikeouts. Aside from how the numbers match up, I like this stack for two reasons. First, I could see Heaney being popular today as people will view Detroit as a struggling team overall without factoring in splits (they are terrible against right-handed pitching but above average against left-handed pitching). It could be a nice leverage stack on the field. Second, they are very affordable, which would allow you to pair them with some more expensive pitching or bats. I'll have some shares of this team tonight.

The Bullpen Report

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @glandry if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@GP_Landry). Don't forget to sign up for today's freeroll!

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