Don't forget, we are still hosting a daily (weekday) freeroll on DraftKings!

• 1st Place: $10 via PayPal

• 2nd & 3rd Places: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium, a t-shirt, or a coffee mug

Here's the link for today's contest!

Written by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GP_Landry on Twitter

Happy Monday! What a "sweep" weekend it was for those of us who are Red Sox fans (sorry I couldn't resist). Today brings us a solid ten-game slate to discuss. The top-tier has several good pitching options and, honestly, I have interest in all of them but price and matchup are making two standout more to me than others. It doesn't mean I won't have exposure to all of them, but I can't write about everyone, so I have to narrow it down to my favorites. This is a Coors Field slate but there are also plenty of other spots for bats. Five teams currently have an implied total over five runs and a few others are just below that line as well. The Mariners currently have the highest implied total at 5.8 runs, which is up from their opening 5.5 runs. Colorado had the highest implied total at 6.1 runs but it has fallen to 5.7 runs. Line movement will be something to watch today. We have rain threatening in Chicago, so be sure to keep an eye on that. We also have very hot weather in New York (90 degrees), Cleveland (87), Texas (98), Kansas City (95), and Los Angeles (87). Give a bump to the bats in all those parks.

High Priced Pitching

Noah Syndergaard, NYM (vs. CIN) (DK: $9.6K, FD: $9.4K)

I can’t ignore his price today. I completely admit he’s not having the same caliber season we are used to but we know what he’s capable of. He gets a Cincinnati Reds team missing a couple of key pieces (Schebler and Winkler) due to injury and also just traded away Adam Duvall at the deadline for some younger, less experienced talent to build for the future. This is also a huge park downgrade for the Reds bats going from Great American Ballpark which ranks 13th in runs scored and 2nd in home runs allowed, to Citi Field which ranks dead last in runs scored and 25th in home runs allowed. Syndergaard’s recent performances have been less than exciting with no more than four strikeouts in each of his last three starts, but he also didn’t give up any more than three runs in that same span and he had tough opponents including the Nationals twice and the Yankees in the Bronx. I feel very confident about his chances to increase those strikeouts in this matchup today. On the season, he has a 3.28 SIERA with 25.4% strikeouts and 13.9% swinging strikes. He’s only walking 4.7% of batters he faces and is giving up just 22.6% hard contact. Yet the BABIP against him is well above average at .341, suggesting he’s been unlucky despite the excellent numbers. His splits are equally strong, with a 2.97 xFIP, 26.1% strikeouts and only 5% walks to lefties and a 3.20 xFIP, 24.7% strikeouts, and a 4.3% walk rate to righties. Opposing left-handed hitters have just a .095 xISO and .263 wOBA against him while opposing right-handed hitters have only a .123 xISO and .291 xwOBA. The floor/ceiling combo that we are getting here for this price is simply unmatched. Even better is that Syndergaard may actually get some run support tonight from his terrible supporting cast. They get to face Homer Bailey and the Mets are comfortable -170 favorites. The Reds are tied for the lowest implied total on the board today at 3.3 runs (with the Twins facing Trevor Bauer). Syndergaard is my top cash pitcher of the day and he’s certainly in the conversation for tournaments, though I believe his price tag will make him popular and there are other places to pivot today with similar ceilings.

Cole Hamels, CHC (vs. KC) (DK: $9K, FD: $8.5K)

Last time Hamels took the hill, I wrote about his biggest downfall being the fact that he was pitching in Globe Life Park and that being traded to a National League team would breathe new life into him. He’s 5-2 in eleven starts away from Globe Life this season. He gets another opportunity today, in a favorable pitcher’s park, against the Royals who are even worse against left-handed pitching than they are against right-handed pitching. They have a super low .128 ISO, .297 wOBA, and 84 wRC+. Even better, their strikeout rate raises dramatically against lefties up to 23.6%. The ceiling has never been the issue for Hamels as he has an excellent 23.6% strikeout rate and 12.4% swinging strikes. The concern has always been with his floor due to his 4.01 SIERA (not bad but we’d like it to be lower) and the scary 44.3% hard contact he allows. But I’m comfortable projecting his floor to be higher than normal today considering the matchup. The other point I raised that I thought would help out Hamels in his last start was his reverse splits and I think those will help him again today. He’s actually worse against lefties with a 4.65 xFIP, 18.2% strikeout rate, and 13% walks. The two left-handed bats that concern us in this lineup though are both awful against left-handed pitching. Duda has a .086 ISO, .240 wOBA, and 32.1% strikeout rate. Alex Gordon (is it sad that he’s the other halfway decent lefty in this lineup?) has a .022 ISO and .215 wOBA with 26.5% strikeouts. The threat from right-handed bats, such as Perez, should be eliminated with Hamels having a 3.97 xFIP and 24.4% strikeout rate. The Cubs are the second highest favorite on the board today at -190 (Cleveland is -204) and the Royals have a low implied total of just 3.8 runs. I’ll be honest, I’m not feeling great about any of the value pitching options for cash games today and I’m warming up to the idea of playing Syndergaard and Hamels together. That still leaves a little over $3.9K per bat on DraftKings, which should be pretty easy to do considering the size of this slate.

Value Pitching

Dereck Rodriguez, SFG (vs. HOU) (DK: $8.9K, FD: $9K)

There are a lot of things to like about Rodriguez tonight (other than his price, which has sky rocketed in recent weeks). First, he gets a Houston team that is very banged up at the moment and missing key players including Altuve and Correa. Second, where he really shines is against right-handed hitters and Houston happens to be very right-handed heavy. Third, the few lefties that Houston does have are not very good against right-handed pitching this season. Marwin Gonzalez has only a .152 ISO, .304 wOBA and 26.1% strikeout rate. Josh Reddick has a .118 ISO and .299 wOBA against righties as well. Plus, even if those guys were hitting well, this park is basically death to left-handed power, so it really wouldn’t matter much. It all really lines up perfectly for Rodriguez tonight. In his ten starts so far this season, he’s only failed to go six innings twice. Against right-handed hitters, which is mainly what we should be focused on, he has a 3.80 xFIP, with 21.8% strikeouts and an excellent 1.12 WHIP. He gets 44.4% groundballs and only allows 6.9% HR/FB on a low 29.3% fly balls. Opposing right-handed bats have only a .118 xISO and .281 xwOBA. He struggles more with lefties, including a 4.60 xFIP and only 17.5% strikeouts but he has a low 5.6% walk rate and still maintains a low 1.12 WHIP. His fly ball rate increases to 38.5% but the HR/FB rate decreases to just 5.7%. Opposing lefties have a .164 xISO and .333 xwOBA against him this season. I’d prefer more strikeouts, but I’m less concerned about the run prevention when he’s pitching at home in AT&T Park. He is, unfortunately, an underdog in this matchup with Charlie Morton pitching for the Astros on the other side. But Houston’s implied run total is low at just 4.1 runs and the total in this game is tied for the lowest on the slate at 7.5 runs. He’ll be incredibly sneaky tonight, which makes him very intriguing in tournaments. People will balk at his price, which is the highest it’s been this season. Ownership of pitchers facing the Astros is automatically lower (but remember no Altuve or Correa), and Hamels has almost the exact same price facing the Royals tonight, which is where everyone will go if they are spending in this price range.

Matt Boyd, DET (@LAA) (DK: $7.6K, FD: $7.6K)

One of the bigger mysteries of this season, in my opinion, is why the powerful, and very right-handed heavy Los Angeles Angels lineup has been so bad against left-handed pitching this season. They currently rank 28th in the majors, with just a .143 ISO, .286 wOBA, and 82 wRC+. Their strikeout rate is even on the rise up to 21.3%. Further sweetening the pot for Boyd is that the Angels are likely to be without Trout for the fifth straight game. He said yesterday he was still dealing with soreness in his wrist when he swings and throws and an MRI revealed inflammation. With the Angels three games below .500 and 16 games back of first place, there’s really not much motivation to rush back their prized player. Boyd, meanwhile, is trending up, having gone at least six innings and getting at least seven strikeouts in four of his last six starts. He’s also faced the Angels once already this season where he went just five innings but only allowed two hits and zero earned runs. He had three walks in that game which I would assume is what caused the early hook, but still managed to pick up the win. As far as the season long numbers are concerned, he’s outstanding against lefties, with a 3.80 xFIP, 24.6% strikeouts and only 3.5% walks. He has a 1.06 WHIP while allowing only a .143 xISO and .269 xwOBA to left-handed batters. Against righties, his ERA is really good (3.44) but the xFIP suggests regression (4.86). He still has solid 21.2% strikeouts and a 1.19 WHIP. I don’t love the 46% fly ball rate but that’s only resulting in a 7% HR/FB, which is very low and the park upgrade tonight should help with that as well. Right-handed hitters have only a .151 xISO and .297 xwOBA against him. The downside here is Boyd is an underdog (+135) and the Angels have a healthy 4.4 implied run total. Due to those numbers, I can’t recommend Boyd in cash, but the way the Angels are hitting against lefties, I really like him as a tournament option today.

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

If you’re new to the article, this is the section where I pick an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher to hit a long ball today. Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential. Note: I'm excluding the obvious players at Coors Field today.

Anthony Rizzo, CHC: 1B (DK: $4.8K, FD: $3.9K)

I’m going to go into more detail shortly about just how bad Jakob Junis is, but for now, all you need to know for the home run watch list is that he’s allowed the second most home runs in baseball at 26. He’s giving up 41.8% fly balls, with a 14.9% HR/FB and 40.5% hard contact to left-handed hitters. Opposing left-handed hitters have a .224 xISO and 85.1 mph average exit velocity against him this season. That brings us to Rizzo, who has a .224 ISO and 35.8% hard hits against righties this season. Not that he needs any extra help, but he happens to hit Junis’s pitch types well also. He has a .196 xISO against fastballs, a .536 xISO against sinkers, and a .172 xISO against sliders.

Gleyber Torres, NYY: 2B (DK: $4.2K, FD: $3.6K)

Covey actually has a very high 61.2% groundball rate and is only allowing 0.83 HR/9 to right-handed hitters this season. But when he does allow a fly ball, they are leaving the park at an above average 12.5% rate. Torres has a .240 ISO and 39.4% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. What’s really standing out to me about this matchup, however, is that Covey throws his two-seam fastball over 60% of the time to both sides of the plate. I’ll bet you can’t guess what Torres’s favorite pitch is? That’s right, a two-seam fastball. He has a .572 xISO and .591 xwOBA with an 88.3 mph average exit velocity against that pitch this season.

Nelson Cruz, SEA: OF (DK: $5.2K, FD: $3.9K)

It's not exactly a secret, but Cruz against a lefty is pretty much an automatic play. He has a ridiculous .378 ISO and 47.9% hard-hit rate against lefties this season. Today, he’ll face Martin Perez who is allowing a .219 xISO and 87.3 mph aEV against right-handed hitters. He only has 13.4% strike outs and a very low 5.6% swinging strike rate, which should make it very easy for Cruz to make contact tonight. When righties do make contact against Perez, he’s giving up 47% hard contact and 2.27 HR/9. Not that we need any more convincing about Cruz, but he also happens to profile well against Perez’s pitch types, including a .355 xISO versus fastballs, a .196 xISO against two-seam fastballs, and an .808 xISO against changeups.

Value Bats

Similar to the home run watch list, in this section, I’ll provide an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher who are priced in the value tier. If I can find someone under priced on both sites, I’ll highlight them. But in some cases it could be site specific.

David Bote, CHC: 2B/3B (DK: $3.5K, FD: $2.5K)

I’m assuming Bote will make the lineup with Kris Bryant on the disabled list for the time being. If that’s the case, he’s drastically underpriced in a matchup with Jakob Junis. Bote has a .384 wOBA and 34.8% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. I admit it’s a small sample size, but my complete lack of faith in Junis outweighs my concern about Bote’s inexperience. Junis allows a .245 xISO and .354 xwOBA to right-handed hitters. He makes plenty of sense today as a one-off value play or as part of a Cubs stack.

Austin Romine, NYY: C (DK: $3.2K, FD: $2.4K)

Like Bote, Romine will have to make the lineup first, but that’s typically the risk we take when hunting for super cheap value. These guys are not always every day players and that’s partly why their prices stay down. He has an excellent .193 ISO, .323 wOBA, and 37.8% hard-hit rate. Covey doesn’t give up a ton of power to right-handed hitters, but he has an incredibly low 11.3% strikeout rate along with 8% walks and a 1.50 WHIP. At this price point, against a pitcher who allows a lot of contact, and playing for a team with a very high total today, it shouldn’t take much for Romine to return value.

Derek Dietrich, MIA: OF (DK: $4K, FD: $2.5K)

Dietrich is way too cheap on FanDuel for a player who will be leading off in what I would consider to be a favorable matchup. If it weren’t for the ballpark they are playing in today, Miami would be on my list of potential teams to stack against Weaver. He allows a .206 ISO and .362 wOBA to left-handed hitters. Dietrich, meanwhile, has a .353 wOBA and 36.8% hard-hit rate against righties. He’s $1,500 more on DraftKings today than he is on FanDuel and he’s pretty close to a lock in your cash games over there, provided he leads off.

Stacks on Stacks

In this section I'll highlight three of my favorite stacks. Generally speaking, I'll exclude the most obvious "chalk" stacks (such as when a game is at Coors Field) because you don't need me to tell you those teams are in play. Be sure to keep an eye on the Vegas lines throughout the day as line movement can always shift interest in stacks.

New York Yankees (vs. Dylan Covey)

It was not a good weekend for the Yankees taking a four game sweep at the hands of division rival Boston and falling a ridiculous 9.5 games back despite still having an excellent 68-42 record. The Yankees are clearly missing Aaron Judge who is still dealing with some pain according to the most recent reports. But, there’s a lot of power in this lineup even without him and this is the perfect bounce back spot to shake off the rough weekend. They’ll face Dylan Covey whose had the wheels come completely off the tracks after a few promising showings earlier in the season. The Yankees have a high 22.9% strikeouts against right-handed pitching but it won’t matter given Covey’s very low 15.4% strikeout rate. To make matters worse, he walks 10% of batters, has a 1.57 WHIP, and a very low 58.2% LOB%. This is worst case scenario for him considering all those numbers and having to face an angry Yankees team. Without Judge, Torres (.240 ISO, .351 wOBA) leads the way followed by Gregorius (.236 ISO, .349 wOBA), Hicks (.186 ISO, .347 wOBA), and Andujar (.185 ISO, .353 wOBA). The secondary options include Bird (.211 ISO), Romine (.193 ISO, .323 wOBA), Stanton (.193 ISO, .326 wOBA), and Gardner (.323 wOBA). Yes, I consider Stanton a secondary option. He's an automatic against lefties but he's not a given against righties. Covey has only made it past five innings in three of his last ten starts which means we should get several at-bats against a struggling White Sox bullpen that has a 4.30 xFIP, 10.3% walk rate, and a very poor 1.48 WHIP. New York, and rightfully so, has the third highest implied total on the board today at 5.5 runs.

Chicago Cubs (vs. Jakob Junis)

It’s a park downgrade for the Cubs after playing with heavy winds blowing out at Wrigley yesterday afternoon. It really won’t matter, however, as they get to face Jakob Junis who has been one of my favorite pitchers to stack against this season. Junis has allowed 2.02 HR/9 which has resulted in the second most home runs given up in the league with 26, just one behind Dylan Bundy. Opposing left-handed hitters have a .224 xISO and .345 xwOBA while opposing right-handed hitters have a .232 xISO and .354 xwOBA against him this season. There’s a lot to like in this Cubs lineup from top to bottom. It all starts with Baez, who went deep yesterday, and has a .286 ISO and .379 wOBA against right-handed pitching. Schwarber (.282 ISO, .374 wOBA), Rizzo (.224 ISO, .373 wOBA), and Happ (.201 ISO, .363 wOBA) round out my priority players from this lineup (Happ should be moved up in the order since they are facing a righty). There are plenty of secondary options here as well. The always reliable Ben Zobrist has a .384 wOBA. Contreras fills the always challenging catcher spot with his .351 wOBA. David Bote is an inexpensive piece that has a .384 wOBA. Even better about this matchup today is that Junis has only gone six innings just once in his last ten starts. This means we are likely to get increased opportunities against the Royals bullpen that is the worst in baseball. They have a 4.67 xFIP, only 17.8% strikeouts, 10.4% walks, 1.55 WHIP and are allowing 41.2% hard contact. The Cubs implied total is currently 5.3 runs for good reason.

Texas Rangers (vs. Wade LeBlanc)

Suprisingly, the Rangers are better against left-handed pitching than Seattle is despite the Mariners having a lot of right-handed power and Texas being more left-handed heavy. In fact, Texas is currently ranked 7th in the league against lefties with a .176 ISO, .329 wOBA, and 103 wRC+. For whatever reason, the dreaded lefty versus lefty matchup doesn’t phase a lot of of these guys. Joey Gallo leads the team with a massive .337 ISO and a .336 wOBA but just be aware he strikes out over 40% of the time. Nomar Mazara has a .207 ISO and .325 wOBA, Ronald Guzman (.190 ISO), and Rougned Odor (.176 ISO, .374 wOBA) are all very strong against lefties as well. The only left-handed hitter on this roster whose performance drastically decreases is Choo with only a .121 ISO but even he sports a comfortable .329 wOBA if you wanted to include him in stacks. What makes this even better is that LeBlanc actually struggles with left-handed hitters allowing a .222 xISO and .356 xwOBA. In addition to the lefties, the Rangers also have some right-handed bats that can do some damage in this spot too. Chirinos has a .267 ISO and .378 wOBA, Profar has a .206 ISO, .357 wOBA, and Kiner-Falefa has a .177 ISO and .363 wOBA. Adrian Beltre is the most shocking player here as he only has a .066 ISO and .337 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. But, I’d tend to trust his career .215 ISO, .380 wOBA, and 35.6% hard-hit rate so don’t be afraid to include him in stacks today. LeBlanc is allowing a .230 xISO and .349 xwOBA against right-handed hitters this season. With several teams having implied run totals well over five runs, plus a Coors Field game tonight, I could seriously see a scenario where the Rangers are completely overlooked because people don’t like all the left-handed batters facing a left-handed pitcher. But, this is Coors Field of the American League, it’s going to be another hot July night, and their opening 5.1 implied total has already climbed to 5.3 runs overnight.

The Bullpen Report

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @glandry if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@GP_Landry). Don't forget to sign up for today's freeroll!

Interested in sponsoring this email?

Please contact [email protected] for more information and sponsorship opportunities.

Have a hot take or play? Feel free to tell us about it: [email protected] we love to hear from you all!