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Written by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GP_Landry on Twitter

Today brings us a ten game slate on DraftKings and a nine game slate on FanDuel (they've left off the game between the Orioles and Rangers). Pitching is very interesting on this slate. There's a big mix of arms in the second tier that all have positives and negatives. A couple of guys stood out to me which I'll be highlighting below but I'd anticipate ownership being fairly spread out. We have one very clear-cut SP1 if you're playing cash games but there's certainly an argument to fade in tournaments if ownership is going to get very high. Just a few teams have an implied run total over five so we should see lower scores on both sites compared to the past few days. The weather looks quiet from a rain perspective but it is very hot around the league today so there should be a bump to the bats in a lot of places. Every outdoor game being played on the main slate is 87 degrees or warmer. We also appear to have winds blowing out at Wrigley between 12-14 mph so keep an eye on that. We have no line yet on that game but if it comes out with the Cubs having a massive implied total I'll definitely have interest in them as a stack (the Padres could be in that conversation too.)

High Priced Pitching

Aaron Nola, PHI (vs. MIA) (DK: $12.4K, FD: $10K)

As uncomfortable as it may feel to use a pitcher against Miami this Phillies starting rotation has come through during this current series. If you’re paying up today this is where you’ll want to be. Nola has gone at least seven innings in four of his last six starts (the other two starts were six and five innings so still not bad). He’s faced Miami twice this season with a 1-1 record. The first game, he went six innings, allowing four hits, two earned runs, and five strikeouts which is still a solid showing despite taking the loss. In the second game, he went 7.1 innings, allowing four hits, zero earned runs, and getting seven strikeouts. Nola uses his curveball heavily to both sides of the plate and most members of this lineup have well below averge expected ISO and wOBA against that pitch type. Only the usual concerning players in this lineup (Anderson, Bour, and Realmuto) have had any success. Overall, Nola has a 3.51 SIERA with 25.7% strikeouts and 11.7% swinging strikes. He has an outstanding 0.97 WHIP and forces 50.7% groundballs while only allowing 24.9% hard contact. Opposing lefties have just a .127 xISO and .284 xwOBA while opposing righties have just a .097 xISO and .243 xwOBA against him. He’s a massive -245 favorite and the Marlins have the lowest total on the board today by far at just 2.8 runs. He’s your SP1 in cash games on this slate and he’s certainly in the conversation for tournaments though I expect he’ll be popular.  

Jon Gray, COL (@MIL) (DK: $8.8K, FD: $9.4K)

I’m really intrigued by Jon Gray today. Whatever happened to him during his short stint down in Triple-A seems to have made a difference. He’s looked like a totally different pitcher since returning. He’s been a candidate for major regression all season with 3.30 SIERA being significantly lower than his 4.99 ERA and the BABIP against him being unusually high at .345. I’m not sure if this is the regression finally kicking in or they found a mechanical issue and worked it out but he’s gone at least seven innings in each of his three starts since returning with a 3.43 xFIP. That’s the good news. The bad news is, in his seventeen starts prior to being sent down he had an 11.64 K/9. In his three starts since being recalled that’s dropped to 7.06 K/9. Obviously, three games is a very small sample size but I find myself wondering if this is the new Jon Gray? Less upside via strikeouts and more command and improved run prevention? Over his last 52 batted balls, he's had a 59.6% groundball rate, only 26.9% hard contact, and 23.1% soft contact. None of these balls have been considered barelled and the average distance has only been 177.8 feet. It remains to be seen if this is how things will continue for him but on a slate that’s lacking in high end pitching I have interest today as a tournament option.  He’s a slight -110 favorite which I’d expect to grow as we get closer to lock considering Wade Miley is pitching against him. The Brewers implied total is pretty low at only 4.1 runs.  

Value Pitching

Danny Duffy, KC (@MIN) (DK: $8K, FD: $8.8K)

I’m surprised by the implied run totals and line in this game with the Twins, despite being awful against left-handed pitching, having a solid 4.6 implied total and being comfortable -147 favorites. Duffy has gone at least six innings in eight of his last ten starts. He’s had at least 20 DraftKings points (40 FanDuel points) in seven of those ten starts (including two games over 30 DraftKings and 60 FanDuel points). He’s also had at least seven strikeouts in six of those ten starts. He’s faced this same Twins team twice during this span. In the first game, he went six innings allowing six hits, zero earned runs, and nine strikeouts in a no decision. During the second game, he went seven innings allowing five hits and one earned run with four strikeouts in a win. As I mentioned earlier, the Twins are pathetic against left-handed pitching. Currently ranked 27th in baseball, they have a .115 ISO, .296 wOBA, and 83 wRC+ while striking out 23.9% of the time and getting just 32.2% hard-hits. Opposing lefties have only a .137 xISO and .328 xwOBA against him. Here’s where the red flag comes in. Opposing righties have a .219 xISO and a .362 xwOBA against him. But, the Twins replaced arguably their best right-handed bat, Brian Dozier, with a struggling Logan Forsythe (.071 ISO, .221 wOBA against left-handed pitching). They also shipped off Eduardo Escobar and replaced him with Miguel Sano who only has a .105 ISO, .233 wOBA, and strikes out 38.6% of the time to left-handed pitching.  The point here is I think this is another great spot for Duffy and although his price has finally caught up to the recent productivity he’s worth a look in both cash games and tournaments on this slate today.  

Ervin Santana, MIN (vs. KC) (DK: $6.5K, FD: $6.6K)

I’m not thrilled about this recommendation but there’s enough here to work with, particularly in this matchup, to give me interest in Santana at his price tag. Since Santana hasn’t been back this season for long enough to give us the full story I pulled last year’s numbers to provide us a better look. The 4.64 SIERA and only 19% strikeout rate isn’t ideal, but the 1.15 WHIP is serviceable along with only allowing 28.5% hard contact. His splits against lefties are not great including a 5.04 xFIP and only 15.1% strikeouts. But, he only walks 5.7% of left-handed hitters which keeps his WHIP to an excellent 1.02 while also limiting the hard contact to 29%. Plus, which lefty outside of maybe Lucas Duda do we care about in this lineup? Things are a little better against righties. The xFIP drops to 4.68 and the strikeouts increase to 22.3 (solid 13.4% swinging strikes.) The walks and WHIP also increase, slightly, to 8.2% and 1.27 and he still limits hard contact to 28%. The most encouraging part of Santana’s resume is the .305 xwOBA he allows to lefties and the .311 xwOBA he allows to righties. If he were any more expensive I’d look elsewhere but a sub $7K pitcher on both sites against the Royals is always worth a look in tournaments regardless of skill set. Vegas clearly agrees, as the Twins are -147 favorites and the Royals implied total is currently at 3.8 runs. There’s nothing safe about this but he’s a cheap pitcher in a fantastic matchup.  

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

If you’re new to the article, this is the section where I pick an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher to hit a long ball today. Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential.

CJ Cron, TB: 1B (DK: $4.2K, FD: $3.1K)

Shields is tied for 12th in the league with 20 home runs allowed. He’s given up five home runs in just his last two starts. He’s allowing a .218 xISO and 44.5% fly ball rate to right-handed batters. Cron has a .237 ISO and 38.7% hard-hits against right-handed pitching. Shields throws a fastball, cutter, and knuckle curve. Cron has a .363 xISO against fastballs, .511 xISO against cutters, and a .329 xISO against knuckle curves.

Javier Baez, CHC: 2B (DK: $5.9K, FD: $4K)

Joey Lucchesi has allowed 13 home runs in 16 starts this season and they’ve all been to right-handed hitters. He’s giving up a .227 xISO including 38.3% fly balls, 20.3% HR/FB, and 1.91 HR/9. Baez has a .258 ISO and 38.8% hard-hits against lefties. Lucchesi throws his sinker 54% and his curveball 32% to right-handed hitters. Baez has a .749 xISO against sinkers this season (small sample size but also a .297 xISO last season) and a .182 xISO against curveballs. As an added bonus it looks like we are going to have winds blowing out at Wrigley today as well.

Bryce Harper, WAS: OF (DK: $5.5K, FD: $4.6K)

Luis Castillo continues to get rocked by left-handed batters despite tossing a couple of gems recently. He’s allowing a .257 xISO, 39.6% fly balls, 17.5% HR/FB, and 1.9 HR/9. He also gives up 44.4% hard contact. Harper has a .280 ISO and 42.4% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. Castillo throws a fastball, changeup, and two-seam fastball to lefties. Harper has a .303 xISO against fastballs, .318 xISO against changeups, and a .437 xISO against two-seam fastballs. 

Value Bats

Similar to the home run watch list, in this section, I’ll provide an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher who are priced in the value tier. If I can find someone under priced on both sites, I’ll highlight them. But in some cases it could be site specific.

Mason Williams, PHI: OF (DK: $3K, FD: $2.1K)

Williams is a solid 6 for 22 with four runs scored and three runs batted in since joining the regular Reds lineup following Jesse Winkler hitting the disabled list for the remainder of the season. Most importantly, considering today’s matchup, he has an excellent .357 wOBA and a super impressive 53.3% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. He continues to bat fifth in the order which is really good considering how cheap his price is.   

Francisco Arcia, LAA: C (DK: $3.3K, FD: $2.4K)

He’s been quiet more recently after jumping out to a white hot start going 5 for 9 with 2 home runs and a ridiculous 10 runs batted in during his first two games in the majors. Obviously, those numbers wouldn’t last forever. But still, he’s crazy cheap for a player with some obvious upside. His .615 ISO, .644 wOBA, and 70% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching will certainly regress to the mean over time. He does get a nice matchup today with Shane Bieber who’s been lit up by left-handed batters since he was called up to the big leagues. He’s allowing a .260 xISO and 85.9 mph average exit velocity. Don’t go out of your way to roster him but if you ended up here as a punt catcher in tournaments it makes sense.   

Todd Frazier, NYM: 3B (DK: $3.7K, FD: $2.4K)

Despite the obvious down season that Frazier is having this is too cheap for an All-Star player who is batting in the middle of the order (no matter how terrible that order may be). For all the strikeout upside Teheran brings to the table, he has more than his fair share of flaws against right-handed hitters including a 41.2% fly ball rate, 19.1% HR/FB, and 37.4% hard contact. Teheran throws a fastball, slider and two-seam fastball to right-handed hitters which Frazier happens to profile well against. He has a .244 xISO, .416 xwOBA against fastballs, a .260 xISO, .379 xwOBA against two-seam fastballs, and a .198 xISO against sliders. 

Stacks on Stacks 🥞

In this section I'll highlight three of my favorite stacks. Generally speaking, I'll exclude the most obvious "chalk" stacks (such as when a game is at Coors Field) because you don't need me to tell you those teams are in play. Be sure to keep an eye on the Vegas lines throughout the day as line movement can always shift interest in stacks.

Washington Nationals (vs. Luis Castillo)

I’ve been calling for the Nationals bats a lot recently and it’s been working out well. This is another good spot for them today. For as much upside as Luis Castillo has he has an equal amount of red flags, especially against left-handed hitters. He’s allowing nearly 40% fly balls, a 17.5% HR/FB, and 44.4% hard contact. What does Washington happen to have an abundance of? Power left-handed batters of course. I already highlighted Harper in the home run watch list so obviously he’s a great place to start. Matt Adams hit a bomb last night and has a .283 ISO, .393 wOBA, and 37.6% hard-hits. The 19 year old superstar Juan Soto has a .229 ISO, .390 wOBA, and 34.6% hard-hits. Daniel Murphy is heating up and has a .346 wOBA this season. Finally, Adam Eaton rounds out the lefties with his .380 wOBA and 41.3% hard-hits.  Castillo is significantly better against righties but I still don’t mind playing Trea Turner or Anthony Rendon if you needed them to make a full stack work. Washington is a solid -161 favorite today and their implied total is just over five runs.

Cleveland Indians (vs. Angels Bullpen)

Deck McGuire is the official starter for this game but he’s never gone over three innings in any of his spot starts which means we are getting a bullpen game today. The Angels bullpen has a 4.26 xFIP and 1.38 WHIP while allowing 14.6% HR/FB and 38.4% hard contact. The Cleveland implied run total is on the rise since the original starter, Tyler Skaggs, was placed on the disabled list and replaced with McGuire. It’s hard to look at splits considering we don’t know who will come in after him but it really shouldn’t matter in this spot. The Indians have one of the top lineups in baseball from top to bottom. If we look at the full season numbers, Ramirez leads the way with a .328 ISO and .428 wOBA. Lindor is next with a .268 ISO and .392 wOBA. Encarnacion (.237 ISO, .341 wOBA), Alonso (.201 ISO, .335 wOBA), and Brantley (.171 ISO, .345 wOBA). They are the priority. There’s also plenty of secondary pieces to work with including Brandon Guyer (.184 ISO), Gomes (.182 ISO), and Kipnis (not great numbers but very good value on both sites). Leonys Martin has a home run in back to back games as the newest member on this lineup.   

Baltimore Orioles (vs. Martin Perez)

I apologize for those of you who play only on FanDuel as this game isn’t included on their main slate. The one thing the Orioles have had going for them recently is with Machado and Schoop out of the lineup it’s given more opportunities to some other guys looking to prove themselves. As a result, Baltimore has flashed some upside (don’t get me wrong they are still terrible). This is another good spot for them against Martin Perez who’s allowing a .200 xISO and .383 xwOBA to right-handed hitters. He’s also only getting a very low 13.4% strikeout rate and giving up 11.2% walks which has led to a dismal 2.16 WHIP against right-handed bats. Baltimore just so happens to be an extremely right-handed heavy team so despite the lack of talent this really shapes up as a good spot for them. I really like the top of this order with newly acquired Jonathan Villar leading off. He’s followed by Tim Beckham, getting regular playing time now, and flashing a .188 ISO and .358 wOBA. Danny Valencia is a core play for me as he’s always had strong numbers against left-handed hitters and this season is no different. He has a .214 ISO and .382 wOBA. Trumbo’s numbers are down this season, but he’s has a career .224 ISO and .332 wOBA against left-handed pitching. The Orioles have the second highest implied run total on this slate at 5.2 runs, ahead of both Washington and Cleveland but behind their opponent, Texas, who has a 5.6 implied run total. There should be plenty of runs scored, per usual, down in that Texas heat today.    

The Bullpen Report

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @glandry if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@GP_Landry).  

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