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Written by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GP_Landry on Twitter

Welcome to another Saturday edition of the LineStar Daily Ledger. We’ve got a twelve-game main slate to talk about today. There is a good mix of pitching options of which I’ll highlight a few of my favorites below. We have a difficult decision between Paxton, Berrios, and Kluber who are all in good spots and heavy favorites. It’s also another slate that looks to be full of stacks, with five teams having an implied run total of five runs or more and a couple other team sitting just below that mark. Once again, on FanDuel, the team with the highest implied total (Texas) is drastically under priced (only three players at $3K or more in the projected starting lineup) creating another mega-chalk situation on that site. I got burned by the weather last night. I had Washington stacks and there didn’t appear to be a big enough threat when I finished finalizing my lineups so I set everything and went on with the rest of my night. I missed the alert that the game had been PPD about fifteen minutes before lock which would have left me enough time to pivot. I should have known better and kept a closer eye on it. Washington is pretty infamous for making one or two poor weather based decisions every season. I suppose they were due. As far as today’s weather outlook is concerned there is a little rain in the forecast out in Minnesota but it doesn’t look like anything very serious. We have some very hot weather games in Los Angeles (86), Texas (95), New York (88), Philadelphia (88), and Washington (88).

High Priced Pitching

James Paxton, SEA (vs. TOR) (DK: $12.9K, FD: $9.5K)

The last time James Paxton faced the Toronto Blue Jays was back on May 8th where he threw a complete game, allowing zero runs, zero hits, and getting seven strikeouts. That’s right, the last time Paxton pitched against Toronto he threw a no-hitter! Obviously, the chances of that happening are very slim but the point is this clearly displays his ceiling which is essentially untouchable and that’s why I love him for tournaments tonight. I say it all the time, but I love to use Toronto hitters when they face a rightly and I love to use left-handed pitchers against them. They are simply not constructed well to hit right-handed pitchers with Smoak and Morales both hitting better from the left-side of the plate, Grichuk, having reverse splits, and Granderson not even making the lineup against a lefty. The glue that used to hold the heart of this order together against lefties was Josh Donaldson who is beginning simulated game action but still far away from an actual return. In the meantime, this is great news for Paxton who has a 2.96 SIERA, 32.3% strikeout rate, and 13.8% swinging strikes. Against lefties, he has a 2.10 xFIP with a massive 35% strikeout rate and only 7% walks while allowing only a .111 xISO and .275 xwOBA. Against righties, he has a 3.25 xFIP with a slightly lower but still fantastic 31.6% strikeout rate and 6.40% walks while allowing a .191 xISO and a .300 xwOBA. If you throw out the one when he got hurt and was pulled early, he’s gone at least seven innings in six of his last eight starts. Currently, Toronto has the lowest implied total on the slate at just three runs and the Mariners are very comfortable -220 favorites. I’m fine with him in cash games, especially on FanDuel where his price is way too cheap. I really like his ceiling for tournaments and I’m hoping he carries less ownership on DraftKings today because he’s more expensive than a couple of other pitchers who are also in good spots.

Jose Berrios, MIN (vs. KC) (DK: $11K, FD: $10.7K)

The 2018 season has proven that Berrios is among the league’s elite pitchers. He’s 10-8 with a 3.61 SIERA, 25.5% strikeout rate and 11.2% swinging strikes. He’s gone at least seven innings in four of his last six starts including a game against this Kansas City team on July 9th. He went seven innings in that one, scattering six hits, allowing just one earned run and striking out eight. Against left-handed hitters, he has a 3.92 xFIP with 25.9% strikeouts and a 1.01 WHIP. Against right-handed batters, he has a 3.56 xFIP with 24.4% strikeouts and a 1.10 WHIP. Opposing lefties have a .171 xISO and .307 xwOBA while opposing righties have a .162 xISO and .302 xwOBA against him. As a team, the Royals continue to fall and are currently 28th in the league against right-handed pitching. Their strikeout rate is low, at 19.9%, but it’s increasing with many of the recent lineup changes the Royals have made including trading away Mike Moustakas. In the past 30 days, the strikeout rate has increased to 24.7%. Unsurprisingly, Berrios and the Twins are the largest favorites on the board today at -233 and the Royals have only a 3.4 implied run total. Berrios is fairly well known for pitching better at home, where he is today, and he’s averaging 50.3% more fantasy points than when he’s on the road. Given the price discount compared to Paxton, and the matchup, he’s likely to be the most popular pitcher on this slate with good reason. I prefer him in cash as a result. He’s got more than enough ceiling for a tournament roster as well but the ownership definitely concerns me.

Value Pitching

Tyler Anderson, COL (@MIL) (DK: $7.4K, FD: $8.4K)

It’s far from a pitcher’s park but Miller Park is certainly not Coors Field and should be a solid upgrade for Anderson tonight. Like most Colorado pitchers, he has better numbers when on the road including a 4.04 xFIP 1.08 WHIP compared to a 4.35 xFIP and 1.26 WHIP when at home. He’s been a model of consistency lately, going at least six innings in seven straight starts. He’s 2-1 with 3.69 xFIP and 48 strikeouts in 47.1 innings while allowing just twelve earned runs during that span. Against left-handed hitters, Anderson has a 4.20 xFIP with 22.8% strikeouts while allowing below average 29.9% hard contact. Opposing lefties have only a .121 xISO and .288 wOBA against him this season. Against right-handed pitching, the numbers are pretty similar including an almost identical 4.21 xFIP and 22.5% strikeouts with slightly above average 30.9% hard contact. Opposing righties have a .147 xISO and .291 xwOBA against him. The well below average expected ISO and wOBA he allows to both sides of the plate really give him a strong floor in my opinion and his strikeout rate is just high enough to give him that floor/ceiling combination we are always looking for (he has multiple games over 30 DraftKings points and over 50 FanDuel points). His matchup today is against Milwaukee who despite all the power in their lineup are not setup well for left-handed pitching. They have only a .153 ISO, .301 wOBA, and 84 wRC+ along with a 21.1% strikeout rate. To be honest, I don’t agree with Vegas on this game at all. As of this writing, Peralta is a -137 favorite and the Brewers have an implied total of 4.6 while Anderson is +126 and the Rockies have only an implied total of four. After a hot start, Peralta has been bad as of late while Anderson has been very strong. I especially like his price on DraftKings today, where I think you can consider him as your SP2 in cash and tournaments. On FanDuel, he’s tournament only as your definitely paying up for a cash game pitcher with all the value available on that site today.

Ivan Nova, PIT (vs. STL) (DK: $5.6K, FD: $7.2K)

I feel like the theme of this week has been “If there were ever a time to play Player “X” this would be it.” First, we had James Shields who I swore I would never play but then along came a really good matchup against Kansas City and I gave in (thankfully, it worked out). Then, the next day, it was Sal Romano in nearly the perfect matchup for his skillset that made it a now or never type of opportunity (this one didn’t work). Today, we have a third player this week that’s falling under this theme. The first thing that’s appealing to me about Nova is his price tag of only $5.6K on DraftKings (he’s too expensive on FanDuel). The second thing that’s appealing to me about Nova is the matchup. He’s awful against left-handed hitters but he’ll face the St. Louis Cardinals who will likely only have one left-handed hitter in their lineup after Dexter Fowler fractured his foot in last night’s game. Now, I won’t sugar coat it. There are very real concerns about Matt Carpenter in this spot. But, I don’t care if he gives up two home runs to Carpenter tonight as long as they are both solo shots. What we really care about here is his performance against right-handed hitters which is surprisingly solid. He has a 3.38 xFIP with 22.1% strikeouts, only 4.6% walks, and a 1.18 WHIP. He does allow some hard contact at just over 35%, but he also gets nearly 50% groundballs (48.8%). Opposing right-handed hitters have a .183 xISO and a .322 xwOBA against him. There’s nothing safe about this suggestion which makes him a tournament only play but he’s cheap enough for you to pair with a high end pitcher and still fit in plenty of bats.

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

If you’re new to the article, this is the section where I pick an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher to hit a long ball today. Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential.

Matt Adams, WAS: 1B (DK: $4.2K, FD: $2.9K)

Harvey has been pitching a bit better as of late and was the subject of numerous trade talks before the deadline but ultimately the Reds failed to turn him into any value for their club and he’ll finish out the remainder of the season in Cincinnati. He continues to get hit hard by lefties allowing a .249 xISO and 85.1 mph average exit velocity. He gives up 43.3% fly balls and 14.7% HR/FB with 42.5% hard contact. Adams has a .283 ISO and 37.6% hard-hit rate against righties. He also matches up very well with fastballs (.346 xISO), two-seam fastballs (.542 xISO), and sliders (.342 xISO) which are Harvey’s top three pitches used.

Charlie Blackmon, COL: OF (DK: $5.2, FD: $4.2K)

When Peralta was called up this season things started off so well but it’s really gone downhill more recently. In his first four starts he had 13, 5, 7, and 10 strikeouts. In his four most recent starts he’s had just 6, 4, 7, and 6 again. He also struggles with lefties, allowing a .224 xISO, 45.5% fly ball rate, and 16% HR/FB. Blackmon has a .255 ISO and 35% hard-hits against right-handed pitching this season. He profiles extremely well against Peralta who throws a fastball and curveball. Blackmon has a .318 xISO against fastballs and a .374 xISO against curveballs. As an added bonus, 14 of Blackmon's 21 home runs this season have come on the road.

Asdrubal Cabrera, PHI: 2B (DK: $4.1K, FD: $3.2K)

Urena has been somewhat of a bright spot for the Marlins rotation but I don’t trust him with this massive park downgrade going to Philadelphia today. He’s allowing a .193 xISO, 44.1% hard contact, and 84 mph average exit velocity against left-handed hitters. Cabrera is much better as a left-handed hitter facing right-handed pitching where he has a .238 ISO, .358 wOBA, and 44% hard-hit rate. Urena’s two most often thrown pitches to lefties are a two-seam fastball and a changeup. Cabrera has a very high .417 xISO against two-seam fastballs and a .261 xISO against changeups.

Value Bats

Similar to the home run watch list, in this section, I’ll provide an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher who are priced in the value tier. If I can find someone under priced on both sites, I’ll highlight them. But in some cases it could be site specific.

John Ryan Murphy, ARI: C (DK: $3K, FD: $2K)

Since he doesn’t play every day his salary rarely increases but minimum salary on both sites against a left-handed pitcher is way too low for Murphy. Suarez has solid run prevention numbers, but he still has a 42.5% hard contact rate and allows a .230 xISO and .360 xwOBA against right-handed hitters. Murphy has a massive .224 ISO and 50% hard-hit rate against left-handed pitching. Unfortunately, he’s very boom or bust, which doesn’t make him the ideal value player, but his price and the power upside here are simply too good to ignore.

Jake Cave, MIN: OF (DK: $3.2, FD: $2.3K)

The Twins are one of my favorite teams on the board today and Cave provides excellent value, in a great matchup, on both sites. Burch Smith allows a .220 xISO and .345 xwOBA to left-handed hitters. He’s also giving up 1.9 HR/9 and 40% hard contact. Cave has a solid .182 ISO, .332 wOBA, and 32.4% hard-hits against right-handed pitching. His spot in the order, which is typically in the bottom third, could also help keep his ownership low despite the excellent price.

Jonathan Villar, BAL: 2B (DK: $3.9K, FD: $2.4K)

The switch hitting Villar has been leading off for the Orioles and should get another chance today against a struggling Mike Minor. Villar is significantly better as a righty against left-handed pitching. Minor is allowing a .294 xISO and .379 xwOBA against right-handed hitters this season. Villar, surprisingly, has a .240 ISO, .380 wOBA, and 45.7% hard-hit rate. He’s a better value on FanDuel at $2.4K but I still have interest in him on DraftKings at only $3.9K.

Stacks on Stacks 🥞

In this section I'll highlight three of my favorite stacks. Generally speaking, I'll exclude the most obvious "chalk" stacks (such as when a game is at Coors Field) because you don't need me to tell you those teams are in play.

Minnesota Twins (vs. Burch Smith)

Smith has only made it to six innings once in his five starts since he joined the rotation back in early July. This really good news for the Twins bats today as they’ll likely get a couple of shots at Smith and then a couple of shots at the awful Royals bullpen. In fact, this exact scenario just happened a couple of weeks ago. Smith went only 3.1 innings, allowing seven hits and four earned runs. The Twins went on to win that game 8-5. Both sides of the plate are in play, as he allows a .220 xISO and .345 xwOBA to lefties and a .236 xISO and .371 xwOBA to righties. Even with the loss of Escobar and Dozier at the trade deadline, there is still a lot of power available in this lineup. The core guys to stack are Rosario, who has a .232 ISO and .380 wOBA against right-handed pitching, Sano (.220 ISO, 46.5% hard-hits), Morrison (.211 ISO, 42.4% hard-hits), and Polanco (.434 wOBA). You can also use Cave with his .182 ISO, .332 wOBA and Garver (.173 ISO, .362 wOBA) as secondary pieces. Despite a 5.2 implied run total, it’s possible the Twins go overlooked with the Nationals, Rangers, and Indians all having similar projections.

Cleveland Indians (vs. Felix Pena)

Speaking of the Indians, they are also in a great spot against the young and still developing Felix Pena. I like Cleveland today because of how much Pena struggles with left-handed batters including a .224 xISO and .367 wOBA allowed. The Indians have a death row of lefties that includes Lindor (.298 ISO, .375 wOBA), Brantley (.192 ISO, .367 wOBA), Ramirez (.372 ISO, .454 wOBA), and Alonso (.211 ISO, .352 wOBA) with of course the right-handed and still very dangerous Edwin Encarnacion (.264 ISO, .349 wOBA) in the middle. Outside of that group, we still have to consider Kipnis, who doesn’t have great numbers this season but does happen to smash two-seam fastballs and sliders which Pena throws collectively over 70% of the time. The newly acquired Leonys Martin and his .340 wOBA against righties is another player to consider. He hit his first home run as an Indian last night and you could use him as part of a wrap-around or bottom of the order stack. Pena has only gone six innings once in his seven starts this season so they should, just like Minnesota, get an early look at the Angels bullpen and their less than exciting 4.26 xFIP. The top of the order is expensive but some of these middle and bottom of the order players can help you make it work. They are easily one of the top stacks on the day.

Seattle Mariners (vs. Marco Estrada)

This will hopefully be a sneakier option as the Mariners are not part of the group of teams that have an implied run total over five today and this isn’t the best ballpark for offense. But still, they will square off with Marco Estrada who has been downright horrible as of late. In his first game off of the disabled list he managed to last just four innings, allowing five hits, four earned runs and not striking anyone out. He also had three walks and gave up a home run. On the season, Estrada has a 5.12 SIERA with a very low 17.6% strikeout rate. What really intrigued me about him was his poor performance against right-handed bats. The Mariners have a ton of power that can exploit this. He’s allowing a .282 xISO and .371 xwOBA to righties and for the record don’t be afraid to include the lefties as part of stacks either where Estrada is allowing a .187 xISO and .323 wOBA. While I prefer him against lefties, Cruz still leads the way here with a .256 ISO, .367 wOBA, and 38.1% hard-hit rate. Haniger is next with his .218 ISO and .357 wOBA. I also like Healy (.215 ISO), and Segura (.333 wOBA). You can play Zunino if you are looking for a punt catcher. He has an outstanding .224 ISO but he also strikes out 36.5% of the time. As far as the left-handed hitters are concerned, Span (.193 ISO, .365 wOBA), Seager (.189 xISO), and Gordon (mainly for the stolen base upside) are all on the radar as well. Seattle’s implied run total should keep the ownership away making them a very high upside, sneaky tournament option.

The Bullpen Report

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @glandry if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@GP_Landry).

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