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Written by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GP_Landry on Twitter

The last day of August. A beautiful thing. College Football is kicking off this weekend, the NFL season kicks off next week, and the baseball excitement is about to ramp up as teams fight for their playoff lives over the next 30 days. As much as I don't want to close up my pool in the next couple of weeks, I'm pretty excited for what falls brings to the sports world. We have a full 15-game slate tonight. As a cash game player, I'm honestly only playing on FanDuel. Value pitching is rough and safety is hard to come by. Unless I can figure out a way to pair a couple of high end pitchers together and still make my lineup work (it might be possible I haven't tried yet) I'm going to stick to a one pitcher site where I don't need to go digging too much. It's a great tournament slate for DraftKings as SP2 is a bit of a challenge but there are some guys with the upside to get it done if they show up tonight (looking at you Nasty Nate). I'm running a little late with the article today so let's not waste anytime and get right to this!

High Priced Pitching

Zack Wheeler, NYM (@SFG) (DK: $10.6K, FD: $10K)

Has there been a better pitcher in the second-half of the season than Zack Wheeler? Probably just his teammate Jacob deGrom. How the hell are the Mets bad, exactly? Wheeler is 6-0 in seven starts with a 1.17 ERA and 3.36 xFIP since the break. He’s given up a total of six earned runs during that span and he’s gone seven innings in five of the seven starts. He’s had 44 strikeouts in 46 innings with an 89.2% LOB%. Insane. On DraftKings, he’s had 19, 28, 35, 29, 15, 30, and 22 fantasy points while on FanDuel he’s had 34, 49, 58, 49, 27, 52, and 43. His season long numbers back up the recent success, which is telling us this is sustainable. He’s got a 3.96 SIERA with 23.6% strikeouts and 11.2% swinging strikes. Opposing hitters are being limited to just 26.2% hard contact. Lefties are a little concerning where he has a 4.02 xFIP, 10.1% walks, and 1.40 WHIP but he also has a 25.2% strikeout rate while allowing only a .107 ISO and .312 wOBA. He’s very strong against righties with a 3.69 xFIP, 22.1% strikeouts, and a 1.06 WHIP. He’s forcing 50.2% groundballs and allowing only 20.8% hard contact, which is really impressive. Opposing right-handed hitters have a .080 ISO and .258 wOBA against him. Today he’ll face the Giants, who you guys all know I love using pitchers against. They continue to slide further down the list of teams against right-handed pitching with their high 22.8% strikeout rate and low .137 ISO and .303 wOBA. Wheeler had arguably his best start of the season when he faced them only ten days ago. He went seven innings, allowing one earned run, and striking out ten. As I’m writing this (it’s 11:30pm EST) my phone is currently blowing up that Andrew McCutchen is on his way to the Yankees. Assuming that’s true (update: it is!) give an additional boost now to Wheeler as a result. The Giants have one of the lowest implied totals on the board today at just 3.7 runs. The only risk here is whether or not he gets the run support to also pick up the win, as I’m seeing some heavy movement on the money line moving in the direction of the Giants. That’s not a reason to fade but will be interesting to watch.  

Corey Kluber, CLE (vs TB) (DK: $10.3K, FD: $11.5K)

This is a great spot for Kluber today and I have a lot of interest in him on DraftKings where he’s only the fourth most expensive pitcher behind Severino, Greinke, and Wheeler. I find myself hesitating for a moment whenever I see his name now, after that stretch around the All-Star break where something seemed very wrong with him. But he seems to have recovered more recently with a solid month of August. He’s 3-1 in five starts with a 3.38 ERA and a 3.15 xFIP. He’s gone seven innings or more in three of those five starts including a complete game shutout against the Angels on August 4th. The strikeouts are down, as he’s had 33 strikeouts in his last 34.2 innings, which equals 8.57 K/9. Ideally, I’d like a little more than that from him. His 24.6% strikeout rate this season but only 10.9% swinging strikes suggest the recent drop is real and something we should expect. It’s not enough to take me off of him but it does potentially hinder his ceiling a bit. As a result, I prefer him more in cash than in tournaments. It doesn’t make him a bad tournament play, but I would expect him to be super popular at this price point and I think people may overlook this slight drop in strikeouts. I’d rather pay a little more for Wheeler or Severino and lock that higher ceiling in place. The floor, however, is rock solid. Especially in a matchup against Tampa Bay who have a 22.9% strikeout rate, a low .144 ISO and a .313 wOBA. Cleveland is a heavy -208 favorite and the Rays have the second lowest implied total on the board today at 3.2 runs (Detroit vs. Severino is the lowest which opened at 3 runs and is down to 2.7.)    

Value Pitching

Nathan Eovaldi, BOS (@CWS) (DK: $8.8K, FD: $7.4K)

As far as I’m concerned, he doesn’t deserve the title of “Nasty Nate” right now. In fact, he’s been flat out awful after a hot start to his Boston career. He’s given up four earned runs or more in three of his last four starts and he hasn’t gone past 5.1 innings in any game during that span. He got shelled by the Orioles, going just 2.2 innings allowing ten hits, eight runs (only four earned) and not striking out anyone. He bounced back a little more against the Phillies in his next start, only to get crushed again by Cleveland and then the Rays in his next two. Despite this, we still have reasons to be optimistic about the long term outlook of Eovaldi. First, if we look at one of his rough starts against the Rays, he only lasted four innings giving up six hits and five earned runs. His ERA in that game was 11.25 but the xFIP was 2.31 and the BABIP was .500, which all suggest he was extremely unlucky. That’s the first good sign. His season long numbers, which give us a much larger sample size, are also still encouraging and what I would tend to trust more in this situation. He has a 3.82 SIERA with 20.3% strikeouts and 10.5% swinging strikes. He’s only allowing 3.3% walks with a 1.15 WHIP. This is all painting the picture of a pitcher who is just going through a rough patch but will ultimately work his way through it. My last reason to be optimistic is regarding some news that came out this week. Apparently, Red Sox special assistant to the general manager Pedro Martinez, identified a flaw in Eovaldi’s delivery and spent time with him this week working on it. Does that mean things will be magically fixed? No, of course not. But it’s encouraging none the less. On top of all of this information, it’s also a great matchup to get back on track, which is the other part of the reason why I’m willing to risk rostering him today in tournaments. The White Sox have a 26.7% strikeout rate and only a .310 wOBA and 95 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season. I think people are going to see his recent box scores and immediately cross him off their list. I like for him to rebound today and I love the fact that he’ll be low owned when he does it.  

Framber Valdez, HOU (vs. LAA) (DK: $6.9K, FD: $6.2K)

I’m digging deep for value pitching today. There is absolutely no safety down in this price range, so it’s all about the potential ceiling. At this price point and in this matchup, I think a case can be made for Valdez today. His major league sample size is discouraging but it’s also very small. His minor league numbers are more promising, so that’s what I’m going to focus on here. In 13 starts in Double-A, he has a 2.52 xFIP, a ridiculous 30.5% strikeout rate, and a very impressive 57.4% groundball rate. The WHIP is average at 1.28 but the BABIP is very high at .363, suggesting he was pitching better than what we are seeing. He was then promoted to Triple-A where he went 2-0 in two starts with a 3.96 xFIP, 25% strikeouts, and a 47.8% groundball rate. Similar to Double-A, he had an average 1.27 WHIP and a very high .348 BABIP. Now at the major league level, things are not as strong with the one exception of his groundball rate, which is at 66.7%. I would expect that to drop but I think he’s proven he can keep it up around 50% if we look at his results across each level. The two big risks here are that he was promoted to the majors after only two Triple-A starts, which makes his range of outcomes very wide not having a great idea about how his skills will translate at this level. Second, he only threw 77 pitches in his last start, and with the Astros having a strong bullpen, I’m assuming they are pulling him early on purpose, allowing him to do just enough to eat up some innings so they don’t completely exhaust their bullpen but handing it over to the more trusted veteran arms as soon as possible. I’m guessing he lands somewhere in the 80-90 pitch range if he’s doing well enough. If he doesn’t do well, I don’t think they hesitate to give him the hook. This means there is literally zero floor here. On the plus side, it’s a great matchup against an Angels team that has struggled with left-handed pitching all season. They have a .150 ISO and just a .302 wOBA so far this season. Vegas also appears to be high on Valdez, as the Angels have only a 3.6 implied run total and Houston is a massive -184 favorite. In tournaments, as high upside, inexpensive SP2, I really like the potential for Valdez today.

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

If you’re new to the article, this is the section where I pick an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher to hit a long ball today. If there's a game at Coors Field, I always exclude them from this list because it's too obvious. So just keep that in mind. Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential.

Trevor Story, COL: SS (DK: $4.5K, FD: $3.8K)

Brett Kennedy has made four major league starts and has allowed six home runs. He allowed three home runs in just four innings during his major league debut. At this point, I’m pretty surprised he hasn’t been sent back down, but I guess it doesn’t matter with San Diego so far out of the race. We are obviously working with a limited sample size but he appears to be worse against right-handed hitters than left-handed hitters. He’s giving up a 30% HR/FB rate with 47.4% hard-hits and a .306 xISO. This has resulted in 3.24 HR/9. Disaster. Obviously I prefer Story against lefties, but he should have no problem taking care of business in this spot. He has a .222 ISO, and 43.1% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching this season. Surprisingly, with his incredible numbers against lefties, 17 of Story’s 26 home runs this season have been against righties. 

Kyle Schwarber, CHC: OF (DK: $4.4K, FD: $3.3K)

Schwarber gets a nice matchup today with Nick Pivetta who has historically always struggled with lefties, but more recently, he struggles with everyone. He’s given up six home runs in his last six starts and 20 home runs on the season. He’s allowing 40% fly balls with a 16.9% HR/FB and 37.1% hard contact to left-handed hitting this season. Schwarber has a .264 ISO and 42% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season. In the past two weeks, he has a 40.9% hard-hit rate with a 94.3 mph average exit velocity. This is a great ballpark for left-handed power. He should smoke one today.

Matt Carpenter, STL: 1B/3B (DK: $5.4K, FD: $4.6K)

After an early exit on Wednesday due to an illness, Carpenter was back in the lineup yesterday, so we should have no concerns about his health for this game. He’ll dig in against Homer Bailey who has given up 2.3 HR/9 to left-handed hitters this season. Of Carpenter’s 34 home runs this season, 25 of them have been against right-handed pitching. He has a .302 ISO and 49.2% hard-hit rate. He also crushes fastballs, which Bailey throws 43% of the time to lefties, with a .435 xISO.  

Value Bats

Similar to the home run watch list, in this section I’ll provide an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher who are priced in the value tier. If I can find someone under priced on both sites, I’ll highlight them. But in some cases, it could be site specific.

Curt Casali, CIN: C (DK: $3.5K, FD: $3K)

Casali has had a very solid month of August going 17 for 56 (.333 AVG) with a .377 wOBA and .176 ISO. He has an impressive .592 wOBA+ISO and 1.95 FP/PA against lefties over his last 150 games. Austin Gomber is allowing a .233 xISO and .379 xwOBA to right-handed hitters. He has a 2.64 ERA but a 5.18 xFIP and a terrible 14.2% walk rate. Casali should be able to return value today.

Amed Rosario, NYM: SS (DK: $3.5K, FD: $2.9K)

A cheap right-handed lead-off hitter against a pitcher who struggles with righties is essentially music to the ears of a cash game player. Rosario will matchup with Andrew Suarez today, who’s allowing a .245 xISO, .375 xwOBA, and 44.7% hard contact to right-handed hitters. Rosario has been hot over the past two weeks going 21 for 66 (.328 AVG) with a .352 wOBA, 14 runs scored, and 10 runs batted in. He has also swiped three bags in that span, which increases his upside.  

Ryan O’Hearn, KC: 1B (DK: $3.9K, FD: $2.5K)

O’Hearn has put his power on full display since joining the Royals at the end of July. In particular, he’s been hitting right-handed pitching really well with a .409 ISO and 54.6% hard-hit rate. As an added bonus, he moved up to third in the order for the Royals last game after batting in the six or seven hole most of the time. He’ll go up against Andrew Cashner today who’s allowing a .220 xISO to left-handed hitters including a 38.4% fly ball rate and 15.1% HR/FB. As an added bonus, he’s basically free on FanDuel today at just $2.5K. 

Stacks on Stacks

At first glance the most obvious stacks of the day are the Rangers at home against a bad rookie pitcher. They opened with an implied total of 5.9 runs, which is already on the rise. The Yankees, also at home, against Jordan Zimmermann. New York opened with a 5.6 implied total that is on the rise. Lastly, the Cardinals against Homer Bailey because, well, Homer Bailey. I’ll exclude those three teams from the stack list today. It doesn’t mean I don’t like them it just means I think they’ll be the highest owned.

Boston Red Sox (vs. Michael Kopech)

Does this technically count as a revenge game even though Kopech never actually put on a Red Sox uniform? I’m curious to see how the DFS community is going to react to this game. On the one hand, we have a very hyped up prospect in Kopech, who came to Chicago in the deal for Chris Sale. Kopech is no doubt deserving of the hype and he has electric stuff. On the other hand though, we have the best team in baseball right now who are crushing right-handed pitching with a .213 ISO, .359 wOBA, and 125 wRC+ this season. Kopech was good, not great, in his last outing against the Tigers. He went six innings, allowing seven hits, and one earned run while striking out four. He was on his way to a gem in his debut against the Twins with four strikeouts in his first two innings before a rain delay cut his night short. Would I be surprised if he went out there tonight and shut down the Red Sox? No, and that’s why I have interest in the Boston bats tonight, because I think others may also shy away, opening up an opportunity for us to stack Boston at lower than usual ownership. I would also not be surprised if the Red Sox went out there and knocked him around. By now, you know the drill. This entire Boston lineup is in play for stacking. The Red Sox opened with a 5.1 implied run today, so Vegas is clearly siding with them in this one. I can’t wait to watch this game tonight. Wouldn’t it be awesome if it was Sale vs. Kopech? Maybe next year.

Kansas City Royals (vs. Andrew Cashner)

The Royals still exist? Maybe it’s just because I went on vacation for a week, but I feel like I haven’t heard of or mentioned this team in forever. For a while, they were my favorite team to pick on with pitching, but recently, they’ve just quietly gone about their business drifting further and further back in the AL Central and allowing this season to be forgotten. Tonight, I think they make some noise against Andrew Cashner. He’s had a brutal month of August going 1-3 in five starts with a 6.59 ERA and 5.81 xFIP. He has twelve strikeouts and twelve walks in 28.2 innings pitched while allowing 21 earned runs. Ryan O’Hearn jumped off my stat sheets today and while it’s hard to get too excited given the small sample size, I’m not worried about him in this matchup and he represents a lot of value. Obviously you can’t have a Royals stack without Salvador Perez (.206 ISO) or Whit Merrifield (.330 wOBA). Be on the lookout for news today about Bubba Goodwin and Jorge Soler (remember him?) as well. They are both currently on rehab assignments and could be activated at any point, although it likely makes sense for them to wait until this weekend when rosters expand so they don’t have to make any additional moves. Bottom line? There’s not a ton to love in this lineup outside of O’Hearn, Merrifield, and Perez but this is a fantastic matchup today and a Royals stack will always fly under the radar. They opened in Vegas with a very healthy 4.8 implied run total. 

Chicago Cubs (vs. Nick Pivetta)

The Cubs are starting to create some separation in the NL Central with a 4.5 game lead after going 8-2 in their last ten games. The Brewers and Cardinals, however, are both playing good baseball, both going 7-3 during that span, so Chicago can’t afford to take their foot off the gas. Today, the Cubs get a matchup with Nick Pivetta who is coming off a couple of rough starts. He was shelled by the Mets going 3.2 innings allowing eight hits, six earned runs, and just five strikeouts. Then he came back and got beat up by Toronto, going 6.2 innings allowing seven hits, five earned runs (two home runs) and four strikeouts. What do both of those teams have in common? They have a lot of lefties, which is where Pivetta can really get into trouble. He has a 1.47 WHIP while allowing a .237 xISO and .353 xwOBA against left-handed hitting this season. Assuming the Cubs roll out a left-handed heavy lineup, which they are very capable of doing with Rizzo, Murphy, Zobrist, Schwarber, and Happ, then this is a great spot for them today. Each of those guys I just mentioned are my favorites from this team, plus the Cubs are expecting to get Kris Bryant back today which provides them with an additional boost. It looks as though Vegas does not agree with me on this one, the Cubs opened with a solid 4.7 implied total that has dropped significantly to 4.2 runs for some reason. This just means it will be incredibly low owned. Watch the lineup. If for some reason Joe Maddon rolls out a right-handed heavy lineup, I will absolutely stay away. There need to be 4-5 lefties for me to have interest.  

The Bullpen Report

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @glandry if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@GP_Landry). Don't forget to sign up for today's freeroll and be sure to use the LineStar avatar to win 2x the prize!