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Written by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GP_Landry on Twitter

Hey everyone, I hope your week is going well and you’re getting ready for the holiday weekend. Before we get started, I see a lot of people in chat starting to get excited for NFL (as am I) and talking about slowing down or stopping their MLB play soon. I just wanted to take a minute and thank all of you for a great season. I’ve really enjoyed your feedback on the daily articles and all the participation in chat. I’m really glad to be part of what I think is the best DFS community out there. If you’re sticking around to finish out baseball, I’ll be continuing the daily articles right until the end. We’ve still got a lot of exciting things happening with playoff spots up for grabs and rosters expanding on Saturday. I’m excited to see what moves are made and which prospects are going to get the call up that we can potentially use in our lineups for the last month of the season. Today, we have an eight game slate that has a lot of potential. There’s plenty of pitching options for both cash games and tournaments. My favorite pitcher on the season is also on this slate, in a great matchup, who's basically been a license to print money most of this season. There are two pretty obvious, and likely chalky stacks, and then a big mix of other teams that arguments can be made for. I’ll highlight some of my favorites below but there is a lot to like today in general. The weather outlook is solid with no threats of rain. It’s cooler around the league today than it has been this week. San Diego, Oakland, LA, and Chicago are all going to be under 80 degrees (under 70 degrees in Oakland and Chicago) at first pitch today.

High Priced Pitching

Justin Verlander, HOU (vs. LAA) (DK: $12K, FD: $11.2K)

The words "complete domination" come to mind when looking at Verlander against the Angels this season. He’s 4-0 with a 1.77 ERA and a 3.27 xFIP in four starts. During that span, he’s given up a total of five earned runs, averaged 8.25 strikeouts per game, and averaged seven innings per start. For most of the season, the Angels have had the reputation of being a very low strikeout team, which can often limit the upside of the opposing pitcher. Times are changing, however, with the Angels being out of the playoff hunt and starting to give some playing time to their younger guys. Francisco Arcia has a 24.5% strikeout rate, Eric Young has a 25% strikeout rate, and Taylor Ward has a 42.9% strikeout rate in twenty-five at bats since being called up. This is not the same team it was earlier in the season. As far as Verlander himself goes, he has the highest strikeout rate (33.1%) and swinging strike rate (13.7%) on this slate by a pretty wide margin. He’s the only pitcher today with a WHIP under one (0.94) and a SIERA under three (2.81). His LOB% is insane at 86.5% as well. I know it can be tough to pay up for the most expensive pitcher on the slate but this is a great price for him as well. It’s a $900 drop from his last start which was against this same team. He’s been this price just a handful of times this season and he hasn’t been under $12K since way back on May 1st. The Angels opened with the lowest implied total on the board at 3.2 runs and it’s actually dropped to 2.9 runs currently. Houston opened as a -220 favorite and that has climbed to -238. Verlander is the top pitcher on the board, raw points wise.

Rick Porcello, BOS (@CWS) (DK: $9.8K, FD: $9.4K)

Don’t want to pay up for Verlander? Let me provide an alternative option. Porcello’s price has fluctuated quite a bit recently being as low as $8.7K on August 3rd and as high as $11.2K in his last start against the Rays. He’s at a comfortable $9.8K today. The numbers are really good. He’s 15-7 with a 3.68 SIERA and 23.8% strikeout rate. He has just a 5.7% walk rate and a low 1.15 WHIP. Typically, I have two concerns when rostering Porcello. The first is I never feel like I’m going to get enough strikeouts to justify the price. I like his 23.8% strikeouts but I’m concerned about his 8.4% swinging strike rate. A swinging strike rate that low generally means strikeout regression over time. The second is he does struggle with lefties, allowing a .228 xISO and .346 xwOBA so far this season. The good news is I’m less worried today about both of those issues. This sets up as an ideal matchup. Chicago has a miserable 26.7% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season which will offset his low swinging strike rate. The White Sox also have very few (any?) left-handed hitters that I’m worried about. They have a little power upside with their .172 ISO but also a low .310 wOBA, 96 wRC+, and 31.6% hard-hit rate. Daniel Palka can be dangerous at times but he’s not consistent and he has a 34.1% strikeout rate. Moncada has been cold, particularly in August, where he’s just 18 for 101 with a .286 wOBA and a 38.6% strikeout rate. Nick Delmonico? Omar Narvaez? These guys just don’t make me nervous. I’m not confident they can exploit Porcello’s weakness enough to make him not worth his price tag today. The Red Sox are comfortable -191 favorites and Chicago opened with an implied total of four that has since dropped to 3.8 runs. Porcello makes a lot of sense today in both cash and tournaments.

Value Pitching

German Marquez, COL (@SDP) (DK: $8.5K, FD: $9K)

Earlier this season, it was always Marquez on the road. Lately, it’s been Marquez all the time. He’s been one of the most promising pitchers in baseball this season, especially recently. He’s made five starts in the month of August, going 2-1 with a 2.12 ERA and a 3.00 xFIP. He has 40 strikeouts to just eight walks in 34 innings pitched. He’s given up a total of eight earned runs during that span. He’s gone seven innings in four of his last five starts and even had a double-digit strikeout game against the Pirates on August 8th, who are one of the harder teams in baseball to get strikeouts against. Let’s take a quick look at his fantasy points per game on both sites this month. We’ll start with FanDuel where he’s had 46, 43, 49, 40, and 52 fantasy points. On DraftKings he’s had 30, 27, 20, 28, 22, and 31 fantasy points. As a bonus, we get a really nice price on him today. He’s been as high as $9.3K on DraftKings this month but today’s he’s at $8.5K. On FanDuel he’s $9K, which is the highest price he’s been in August, but I still don’t think it’s high enough considering the recent production. I expected him to be more. As if we needed more reasons to be excited about him, let’s not bury the lead here. He’s not in Coors tonight! He’s 7-3 away from Coors Field with a 3.03 ERA and a 3.47 xFIP. I haven’t even mentioned that he’s facing the Padres today, who are one of the worst teams in baseball against right-handed pitching. They strikeout 24.6% of the time with only a .137 ISO and .302 wOBA. In all likelihood, I will not be paying up for Verlander tonight in cash games because I’m going to wind up here instead. In fact, if you pair Marquez and Porcello together, which gives you an excellent floor/ceiling combination, you still have $3.9K per position to work with on DraftKings, which is more than enough to build a great lineup on this slate. If you start your bats off with Souza Jr. and Marte, two of my favorite value bats, you’re already up to $4.1K remaining per position. Marquez is my favorite pitcher on the board today and honestly it’s not close.

Joe Musgrove, PIT (@STL) (DK: $7K, FD: $8.3K)

This lines up as a really nice matchup for Musgrove, which may only get better if Carpenter misses the game today. He left last night’s game early with an illness that they are calling a “24-hour virus,” so it’s unclear if he’ll be feeling up to playing tonight or not. He’s listed as day-to-day for the moment. I prefer Musgrove against right-handed batters which is why I like him today against a Cardinals team that should only have three lefties in the lineup. If Carpenter were to miss, that’s not only another lefty but also their best bat gone. It would be a big boost to Musgrove’s potential today. His overall numbers aren’t overly exciting. A 4.14 SIERA is okay but not great. The 19% strikeouts are less than ideal but the 10.3% swinging strikes are encouraging. Lefties are what drag him down with his 4.43 xFIP and only 15.2% strikeouts and a 1.41 WHIP. But he’s solid against righties with a 3.99 xFIP and 22.2% strikeouts. The WHIP falls to 1.03 and the LOB% is excellent at 81.7%. He actually had one of his better starts of the season against the Cardinals back in May where he went seven innings allowing five hits but zero earned runs and getting seven strikeouts. At the moment, he’s not the favorite but things are quickly moving in his direction. The Cardinals opened as -132 favorites which has fallen to -108. They also had an implied run total of 4.3 runs which has decreased to 4.1 runs. It wouldn’t shock me if Musgrove was a favorite by the end of the day. As long as the Cardinals have no more than three left-handed bats, I have a lot of interest here. If Carpenter misses, I like him a lot more.

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

If you’re new to the article, this is the section where I pick an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher to hit a long ball today. If there's a game at Coors Field, I always exclude them from this list because it's too obvious. So just keep that in mind. Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential.

Giancarlo Stanton, NYY: OF (DK: $5.3K, FD: $4.5K)

I have to do this. I know he’s burned a ton of people recently and he’s incredibly frustrating to predict, but that also means he’s likely going to be low owned. I’ve been in chat for a while this morning and I’ve seen people saying they just can’t play him right now. I completely understand and I’m not going to try to change your mind, but I also can’t avoid a low owned Stanton against a terrible left-handed pitcher. The ceiling is still there as Stanton has a .336 ISO and 59.3% hard-hit rate. Liriano has a 5.38 xFIP with only 16.8% strikeouts. Opposing right-handed batters have a .238 xISO against him this season. Stanton absolutely obliterates Liriano’s pitch types including a .294 xISO against sliders, a .216 xISO against changeups, and a ridiculous 1.308 xISO against two-seam fastballs.

Xander Bogaerts, BOS: SS (DK: $4.9K, FD: $3.8K)

Giolito is actually worse against left-handed hitters but he can certainly still get into trouble against righties where he’s allowing a .189 xISO and 86.1 mph average exit velocity this season. Bogaerts has a .266 ISO and a 37.9% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. As an added bonus, he only strikes out 16.3% of the time. Giolito throws a fastball 44.2% of the time as well as a slider and a two-seam fastball. X-Man has a .358 xISO against fastballs, a .220 xISO against sliders, and a .356 xISO against two-seam fastballs.

Tyler White, HOU: 1B (DK: $4.6K, FD: $3.1K)

Looks like the Astros have found yet another weapon in this already dangerous offense. White is mashing the baseball in the month of August going 23 for 78 with a .361 ISO and .437 wOBA. Six of his 23 hits have gone for home runs. He’s particularly strong against left-handed pitching where he has a .349 ISO and 38.7% hard-hit rate. Heaney gets shelled by righties, allowing a .210 xISO and 41.5% hard contact. White should finish off a very strong month of August on a high note. He’s also underpriced on FanDuel today.

Value Bats

Similar to the home run watch list, in this section I’ll provide an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher who are priced in the value tier. If I can find someone under priced on both sites, I’ll highlight them. But in some cases, it could be site specific.

Ketel Marte, ARI: 2B/SS (DK: $3.3K, FD: $2.9K)

Marte is always one of my favorite middle infield values when he faces a left-handed pitcher. He bats further down the order than I’d like, but he has an impressive .607 wOBA+ISO and a 2.05 FP/PA in his last 150 games against lefties. His 44.9% hard-hit rate shows the potential upside and his very low 11.4% strikeout rate and very high 10.3% walk rate show off his patience and discipline at the plate, which is perfect for a cheap bat that we need to reach value. Hill is a talented pitcher but there is definitely margin for error here, as he’s allowing a .211 xISO, .329 xwOBA, and 48.7% hard contact to right-handed hitters this season.

Steven Souza Jr, ARI: OF (DK: $3.4K, FD: $2.7K)

Sorry to choose a player on the same team as Marte but it’s hard to pass up the value these guys represent today. Souza is another player with solid numbers against left-handed pitching. He has a .544 wOBA+ISO and a 2.06 FP/PA over this last 150 plate appearances against left-handed pitching. This season, he has a .220 ISO, .359 wOBA, and a downright insane 68.3% hard-hit rate. He will be a core play in my cash games tonight.

Ryon Healy, SEA: 1B (DK: $3.7K, FD: $2.5K)

Healy always makes for an inexpensive, intriguing upside type of player. He’s not safe but he has the power to greatly exceed value on most slates if he does hit. He has 23 home runs this season and 17 of those have been against right-handed pitching, which he’s facing tonight. He has a .217 ISO and .324 wOBA with 35.8% hard-hits.

Stacks on Stacks

Not quite as many crazy high implied totals as we’ve had most of this week. The two most obvious teams in my eyes tonight are the Yankees (5.9 implied runs) and the Red Sox (5.3 implied runs). Both of those teams are always in play and I have no problem with either of them tonight. Since I expect them to be the most popular, however, I’ll exclude them today and focus on a few other teams instead.

Houston Astros (vs. Andrew Heaney)

There’s a lot working in the Astros favor heading into tonight’s game against the Angels. First, as we’ve talked about earlier this week, they are finally getting healthy again with Springer, Altuve, and Correa all back in the lineup. Second, they are heating up, scoring eight runs or more in five of their last ten games and going 7-3 during that span. Third, they face a lefty tonight and they crush lefties with a .192 ISO, .349 wOBA, and 125 wRC+ this season. They have an incredibly low 17.7% strikeout rate while maintaining a solid 35.3% hard-hit rate. I do believe Andrew Heaney is a talented pitcher but this is simply a bad spot for him. He allows a .210 xISO and .341 xwOBA to right-handed batters and he’s likely going to see seven or eight of them tonight. I like just about everyone in this lineup but Alex Bregman continues to stand out with his .267 ISO and .372 wOBA as well as Tyler White, who’s on my home run watch list today. Springer, Correa, and Altuve unsurprisingly make excellent options as well. Evan Gattis has a ton to like here with a .293 ISO and .350 wOBA. Two players that may surprise you a little are Gurriel with his .360 wOBA and Reddick who is excellent against lefties with a .267 ISO and .372 wOBA despite being a lefty himself. The Astros opened with a 4.9 implied run total and should carry less ownership than New York and Boston tonight.

Colorado Rockies (vs. Eric Lauer)

Speaking of teams that smash left-handed pitching, the only team that might be better than Houston is the Colorado Rockies. They are obviously less exciting on the road than they are at home but I’m hoping that will benefit us by keeping ownership down. As a team, they have a .200 ISO, .354 wOBA, and 37.7% hard-hit rate against left-handed pitching. Park downgrade or not, I have interest in a lot of these guys today. Eric Lauer has a very low 18.8% strikeout rate with an ugly 1.71 WHIP while allowing 39.4% hard contact. You could make a legitimate argument for Nolan Arenado as the top overall play on the slate. He has a ridiculous .951 wOBA+ISO and 3.83 FP/PA against lefties over his last 150 games. Trevor Story is up there as well, with a much less exciting but still impressive .664 wOBA+ISO and an outstanding 2.95 FP/PA. Ian Desmond rounds out my favorite Colorado players with his .607 wOBA+ISO and .311 FP/PA. I also have interest in DJ LeMahieu with his low 10.5% strikeout rate and high .183 ISO, .377 wOBA. If Ryan McMahon gets the start, he has an excellent .259 ISO and .418 wOBA, albeit in limited plate appearances. Blackmon and Gonzalez are both fine if you’re rolling out a full stack. They lose the power upside facing a lefty but still have a solid .343 wOBA and .327 wOBA, respectively. I wouldn’t prioritize them, but if rolling out multiple teams, you could include them in your player pool. There is currently no line on this game because today was supposed to be Clayton Richard’s start before he landed on the disabled list. I expect Colorado’s implied total to be in the high four range when it’s released.

Arizona Diamondbacks (vs. Rich Hill)

I haven’t done a wildcard stack in a while so this feels like a good time to roll one out. I always have interest in the Diamondbacks when they face a lefty. A lot of their guys are drastically underpriced despite their success against left-handed pitching, and it creates a lot of value. I mentioned Steven Souza Jr. in the value bats section, who is a cash lock for me today. He’ll probably be popular in tournaments but it’s really hard to avoid a player as cheap as he is when he has a .220 ISO, .359 wOBA, and that ridiculous 68.3% hard-hit rate. Ketel Marte was also a value bat today at his price tag and a .250 ISO, .397 wOBA, and 44.9% hard-hit rate against lefties. Nick Ahmed is another great value option who I haven’t mentioned yet with his .248 ISO, .352 wOBA, and 43.1% hard-hit rate. All of those guys are under $4K on DraftKings and under $3K on FanDuel. Pretty good way to start a stack. Then, you can increase your ceiling with Paul Goldschmidt’s .284 ISO, .427 wOBA, and 49.1% hard-hit rate as well as AJ Pollock’s .267 ISO, .331 wOBA, and 45.8% hard-hit rate. Let’s also not forget John Ryan Murphy, who should get the start at catcher, and has a .202 ISO and 46.9% hard-hit rate. He’s more of a boom or bust play. Even Eduardo Escobar is on the radar with his .332 wOBA though he’s not as big a priority for me as the others on this team. Rich Hill is certainly a talented pitcher and not someone I’d go out of my way to attack but the upside combined with the price tags you get on many of these guys tonight is simply too good to pass up. The Arizona implied total opened at just 3.6 runs so I can’t imagine many people will go here. This is a really sneaky option for your large field GPPs tonight.

The Bullpen Report

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @glandry if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@GP_Landry). Don't forget to sign up for today's freeroll and be sure to use the LineStar avatar to win 2x the prize!