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Written by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GP_Landry on Twitter

It’s the weekend once again! You guys watch that Hall of Fame game? Really exciting! I don’t think anything happened in baseball last night. Looking at the box scores it looks like it was a pretty boring night. Yes, I’m being sarcastic. Wild night yesterday to say the least. As we discussed in yesterday’s newsletter, there were stacks EVERYWHERE, so hopefully you guys picked out a few good ones and made a little cash. We have a similar situation with today’s slate as there are currently six teams with an implied total over five runs and a couple others on the rise. There’s a lot of good pitching today as well and I’m going to make a case for someone that isn’t considered an elite pitcher, but when you factor in matchup and price tonight, I really think he can be considered over the usual studs. Quickly looking at the weather, Washington and Philadelphia are both potential trouble spots with rain in the forecast. Obviously too early to tell. We have some games in above average heat as well, including in Texas, 95 degrees, and Minnesota, 87 degrees. As always, be sure to check the weather prior to lock tonight. Alright, let’s start this weekend off right and see what we have in store on this slate.

High Priced Pitching

Patrick Corbin, ARI (vs. SFG) (DK: $10.4K, FD: $9.8K)

I like Corbin as my high end cash game arm today. He’s not on the same talent level as Verlander and deGrom but his matchup gives him a solid floor/ceiling combination that can match either of them on this slate. Verlander has a difficult matchup against a loaded Dodgers lineup that is the second best team in baseball against right-handed pitching with their .195 ISO, .334 wOBA, and 111 wRC+. He’s an elite tournament option today but I don’t like his floor in cash games. I prefer deGrom’s floor, which is fine in a matchup against the Braves who are worse against right-handed pitching than left-handed pitching, but I question his ceiling given Atlanta’s very low strikeout rate. Corbin, however, combines the best of both worlds today and he comes at a significant discount. From a floor perspective, his 2.98 SIERA is actually lower than deGrom’s 3.01 and only slightly higher than Verlander’s 2.83. He also benefits from an excellent matchup against a struggling Giants offense that only has a .140 ISO, .302 wOBA, and 91 wRC+. Corbin’s best pitch is his slider, which he throws 50% of the time to lefties and 35% of the time against righties. Looking at the Giants bats, only Hundley and Longoria have success against that pitch type. As far as ceiling goes, his 30.6% strikeout rate is better than deGrom’s 30.1% and his 14.8% swinging strike rate is better than Verlander’s 13.6%. I realize I’m splitting hairs with how close those strikeout numbers are, but when you factor in Corbin’s price compared to deGrom and Verlander, it makes a pretty big difference. This will be Corbin’s fifth start against this team this season. He’s never given up more than three earned runs in any of those starts, he’s yet to allow a home run to this team, he hasn’t walked more than two batters in any of their meetings and he’s had at least five strikeouts in each game including a complete game one hitter back on April 17th where he allowed zero runs and had eight strikeouts. His history in this matchup, his strikeout upside, and the Giants struggling offense all make me confident that he can keep pace with both Verlander and deGrom on this slate today, but he’ll save you a bunch of money in the process. I love him for both cash games and tournaments tonight.

Luis Severino, NYY (@BOS) (DK: $9.2K, FD: $10.2)

Are we feeling risky tonight? I like this spot, in tournaments only, for Severino. In situations like this, where we have an elite pitcher facing an elite offense, it’s the perfect time to take a shot on either side knowing that the average DFS player is just going to avoid this situation entirely. It’s true, the floor for Severino is virtually gone in this spot. The Red Sox are the best offense in baseball against right-handed pitching with their .198 ISO, .346 wOBA, and 115 wRC+. But, the ceiling is still very much in-tact AND we are getting a significant discount on him tonight because of this matchup and his recent performance. This leaves us a lot of room for Severino to exceed value without breaking the bank on him. As far as the individual numbers go, he’s right there in the conversation with Verlander, deGrom, and Corbin. He has a 3.21 SIERA, 28.6% strikeout rate, and 12.4% swinging strikes. His splits are excellent with a 3.00 xFIP, 29.5% strikeout rate against lefties and a 3.19 xFIP and 27.8% strikeout rate against righties. Opposing left-handed hitters have a .160 xISO and .308 xwOBA and opposing right-handed hitters have a .178 xISO and .302 xwOBA against him. This will be the fourth time he’s faced Boston this season and, as you might expect, there have been mixed results. His worst game was way back on April 10th when he went five innings, allowing five earned runs, and getting six strikeouts while taking the loss. But more recently, he’s had two straight games with 28 DraftKings points. He had an outstanding performance, on May 8th, where he went six innings, allowing four hits, two earned runs, and getting eleven strikeouts in a no decision. On July 1st, he went 6.2 innings, allowing only two hits, zero earned runs and getting six strikeouts while picking up the win. This is the cheapest that Severino has been all season and yet he’s shown us twice, that he can still push for 30 DraftKings points regardless of the matchup. He’s not safe, and it doesn’t give you confidence, but he’s an outstanding tournament option at very low ownership on this slate tonight.

Value Pitching

Anibal Sanchez, ATL (@NYM) (DK: $8K, FD: $8.5K)

I’m seeing Vince Velasquez get some love, which is fine. I don’t mind him, but I’m leaning Sanchez, who I think it’s a bit safer and seems to be going overlooked. I know I argued yesterday that you shouldn’t avoid the Marlins bats with pitching but I was a lot more confident in Pivetta than I am in Velasquez. Sanchez, arguably, has a better matchup anyway against a struggling Mets team. The thing that stinks about this recommendation is Sanchez is a heavy underdog with deGrom pitching on the other side, so your chances of picking up the win bonus are decreased. Then again, deGrom is laughably 5-6 this season despite his 2.83 xFIP and 164 strikeouts in only 138.1 innings because of how bad his team is. The Braves have an implied run total of 3.25 but the Mets implied run total isn’t much better at just 3.75. So, it’s definitely not out of the question that Atlanta sneaks out a win tonight. Sanchez has been very good this season. He has a 3.98 SIERA with 23.4% strikeouts and a 1.09 WHIP. Against lefties, his xFIP is at 4.02 with 25% strikeouts and a 79.5% LOB%. They have a slightly above average .184 xISO and a low .311 xwOBA. Against right-handed hitters, he has a 4.12 xFIP with 21.9% strikeouts and an 80% LOB%. They have a .166 xISO and .280 xwOBA against him this season. Over his last 54 batted balls, he’s forced 25.9% soft contact and allowed just an 86.5 mph average exit velocity. He’s the exact same price as Velasquez on DraftKings (and they are similar prices on FanDuel) with a slightly lower ceiling because of the strikeout upside but a much stronger floor. Sanchez has at least 20 DraftKings points in three of his last four starts, including one game over 30. Velasquez has one game with over 30 DraftKings points in that same span, but also two games below 10. I’m ignoring the fact that he’s an underdog tonight. I like him as an SP2 in cash and assuming he continues to be overlooked I’ll have shares of him in tournaments as well.

Jake Odorizzi, MIN (vs. KCR) (DK: $7.8K, FD: $7K)

I’m always surprised when I see Odorizzi’s strikeout rate and swinging strike rate despite having seen and even written about it already several times this season. He’s just not a name I associate with being a high upside pitcher, but then out of nowhere, as you're researching a slate, he pops up with 24% strikeouts and 11.3% swinging strikes and he grabs your attention. Because of that, and his matchup with the Royals today, I like him in tournaments. It’s no secret at this point that Kansas City is a great team to target with pitching. They have a very ugly .138 ISO, .296 wOBA, and 83 wRC+. Outside of the strikeouts, Odorizzi’s numbers don’t leave you with a great taste in your mouth. His 4.34 SIERA and 1.42 WHIP are less than ideal. He also allows a very risky 48.6% fly ball rate and 35.9% hard contact. But given the matchup, he should be able to hide those red flags enough to get the job done. He faced this team just a couple of weeks ago and went six innings allowing two hits and one earned run with eight strikeouts and only one walk. What’s really standing out to me is how he profiles with this Royals lineup. Odorizzi uses his slider against right-handed bats and his split-fingered fastball against left-handed bats. Alex Gordon, who has a .429 xwOBA against the split-fingered fastball, is the only player with any success against either of those pitch types. Odorizzi is the ultimate boom or bust pitcher with four of his last six starts going over 20 DraftKings points but the other two having less than five. He’s a high volatility pitcher, but given the matchup, I think there’s more reward than risk here. The current Kansas City lineup is batting just .190 against him in 53 at-bats. He makes for a great tournament option on today’s slate.

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

If you’re new to the article, this is the section where I pick an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher to hit a long ball today. Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential.

Juan Soto, WAS: OF (DK: $5K, FD: $3.8K)

Honestly, pick any lefty on this Nationals team for a home run tonight and I’ll agree. I don’t know what it is about Reds pitchers and left-handed hitting, but it’s awful. I made fun of Tyler Mahle in the newsletter yesterday and sure enough he didn’t get past two innings like I said he wouldn’t. Well, DeSclafani is worse. He allows a .340 xISO to left-handed hitters including a 31.4% HR/FB rate on 44.3% fly balls and a massive 48.2% hard contact rate. Soto, meanwhile, has a .232 ISO and 35.2% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. DeSclafani throws his fastball (which he allows a .486 xISO off of) 44.3% of the time to lefties and Soto crushes fastballs with a .473 xISO and 89.3 mph average exit velocity. This kid is 19 years old and the future is very, very bright.

Rougned Odor, TEX: 2B (DK: $5.1K, FD: $3.5K)

For my middle infielder spot, Odor is standing out with his .202 ISO and 44.4% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. He’ll take on the struggling David Hess on another extremely hot day down in Texas. Hess allows a .226 xISO to lefties to go along with 47.6% fly balls and 15.4% HR/FB which has resulted in 2.19 HR/9. He throws a fastball 63% of the time against left-handed hitters and Odor has a .314 xISO against that pitch type. Just like yesterday, all the Rangers are crazy under priced on FanDuel today.

Eugenio Suarez, CIN: 3B (DK: $5K, FD: $3.8K)

Suarez will need to provide as much run support as possible for his team to have any chance in this game today. He has a very impressive .337 ISO and 56.3% hard-hit rate against left-handed pitching this season. He’ll matchup with Gio Gonzalez who throws a mix of two-seam fastballs, changeups, fastballs, and curveballs against right-handed hitters. Suarez destroys each of these pitch types including a .199 xISO against fastballs, a .403 xISO against two-seam fastballs, and .747 xISO against changeups, and a .587 xISO against curveballs.

Value Bats

Similar to the home run watch list, in this section, I’ll provide an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher who are priced in the value tier. If I can find someone under priced on both sites, I’ll highlight them. But in some cases it could be site specific.

DJ LeMahieu, COL: 2B (DK: $3.5K, FD: $3K)

We aren’t at Coors and we aren’t facing a left-handed pitcher, but still LeMahieu is far too cheap for his talent level, particularly on DraftKings at just $3.5K. He returned to action after some time on the disabled list with an oblique injury. I don’t expect his price to stay this low for very long, so we should take advantage while we can. He gets a nice matchup with Junior Guerra who has a 4.32 xFIP and allows 44.8% hard contact against right-handed hitters. They have a .206 xISO and .336 xwOBA against him this season. Although LeMahieu’s numbers against righties aren’t great this season, it won’t take much for him to reach value at this price.

John Hicks, DET: C/1B (DK: $3.4K, FD: $2.2K)

Hicks is a steal on both sites at this price when facing a left-handed hitter. It feels like highway robbery to be honest. He has a .171 ISO and .368 wOBA against southpaws this season. Anderson has been getting crushed by right-handed bats, allowing a .251 xISO, .373 xwOBA, and 36.8% hard contact. There is zero reason on either site that Hicks can’t exceed value in this matchup. If you want to be really different in tournaments, you could pair Hicks and McCann together on FanDuel using the utility spot. Hicks plays a lot of first base and they are typically in the lineup together against left-handed pitching. He's a lock in your cash games.

Adam Frazier, PIT: OF (DK: $3.8K, FD: $2.2K)

Frazier should be in the lineup today against the right-handed John Gant. If this happens, then he is way under priced on FanDuel assuming he hits lead off for a team that currently has a 4.5 implied run total. Gant has an xFIP at nearly 5 (4.93) with low 17.3% strikeouts and high 10.1% walks. He allows a .217 xISO, .380 xwOBA, and an absurd 59.4% hard-hit rate against left-handed batters. Frazier’s numbers certainly don’t jump out at you, but his .326 wOBA is solid and he only strikes out 12.3% of the time. With Gant’s low strikeouts and high walks against Frazier’s very low strikeouts, I like Frazier to win this battle today.

Stacks on Stacks 🥞

Just like yesterday, there are TONS of places to stack today, so don't be afraid to find a good spot and stick to it. The Rangers are still drastically under priced on FanDuel (I won't rant today I promise) so they'll be mega chalk once again after their performance last night. Ownership in general though, especially on DraftKings, should be pretty spread out with so many teams in good spots.

Washington Nationals (vs. Anthony DeSclafani)

The Nationals are on fire right now with at least five runs in seven of their last ten games, at least seven runs in five of their last ten, at least ten runs in three of their last ten, and one game with a whopping 25 runs. They came through for us last night putting up another ten runs against the Reds. Today, we have a pitcher who is worse than Mahle against lefties with a depleted bullpen supporting him after putting in 6.1 innings of work last night. I mentioned when I highlighted Soto as a home run candidate that DeSclafani likes to throw his fastball (which he allows a .486 xISO off of) 44.3% of the time to lefties. He also throws it 30% of the time against righties. Here’s a quick reminder of how Washington performs against fastballs: Trea Turner (.330 xISO, .440 xwOBA), Bryce Harper (.308 xISO, .408 xwOBA), Anthony Rendon (.264 xISO, .439 xwOBA), Matt Adams (.346 xISO, .437 xwOBA), Juan Soto (.437 xISO, .493 xwOBA), Adam Eaton (.403 xwOBA), Ryan Zimmerman (.333 xISO, .402 xwOBA), and Daniel Murphy (.273 xISO, .437 xwOBA). Need I say more? I’m going to keep riding this hot streak with the Nationals until it burns out. They have one of the highest implied run totals on the board right now at 5.1 and they’ll likely be popular, so just be sure to keep that in mind.  

New York Yankees (vs. Rick Porcello)

This game is going to get completely overlooked. While Porcello is a very talented pitcher, he’s certainly not on the level of Severino, so I don’t have interest in rostering him. But he’s good enough that I think people will avoid the Yankees bats despite their ceiling still being so high. Anytime I can get the Yankees at low ownership, whether it be because of a poor matchup, weather concerns, etc., I’m going to take some shots and see what happens. The Yankees also have one of their lower implied run totals of the season at just 4.5 (sounds ridiculous that that is a low implied total for them) which will likely keep the masses from rostering them with several other teams having much higher totals. This will be Porcello’s third time pitching against New York. Similar to Severino, he’s also had mixed results. In their first meeting, back on April 12th, Porcello threw seven strong innings allowing just two hits, zero runs, and picking up seven strikeouts along with the win. The next time, on May 9th, Porcello only managed 5.1 innings, allowing eight hits, five earned runs, and got just three strikeouts. We just don’t know what’s going to happen here exactly but we do know that a big game from this offense is within the range of outcomes, which is all that matters to us when evaluating stacks to use in tournaments. Just like Boston, the majority of the players on this team have an above average ISO, wOBA, and hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. I'm planning to have a lot of exposure to this game tonight with Severino as a pitcher, hedging my Severino lineups with some Boston stacks, and then of course the Yankees stacks.

Minnesota Twins (vs. Heath Fillmyer)

In his short time in the majors, Fillmyer has been solid at run prevention, but he has zero strikeout abilities and all signs point to a lot of regression coming his way. He has a 4.89 xFIP which is well above his 3.29 ERA and the BABIP is very low at just .244. He only has 15 strikeouts in 27.1 innings of work this season. It seems like Vegas is seeing this as well as the Twins implied total opened at at 5.2 runs (which is already really good) and has skyrocketed to 5.7 runs as I'm writing this now. The Twins, despite losing some pieces, still have some power in this lineup and can roll out several left-handed hitters against the right-handed Fillmyer. Eddie Rosario is my favorite of this group with his .232 ISO and .380 wOBA. Sano is back after his time in the minors and he brings a .220 ISO, although it comes with a 40.6% strikeout rate. Logan Morrison has a .211 ISO and 42.4% hard-hits. Jorge Polanco lacks the power but he has a fantastic .434 wOBA against righties this season. These guys make a solid 1-4 stack tonight and I would make them the priority. As far as secondary pieces go, Jake Cave has a .182 ISO and .332 wOBA and Mitch Garver has a .173 ISO and .362 wOBA. I have no issues including either of them. As an added bonus, we have a rare hot weather game up in Minnesota, as it's expected to be almost 90 degrees at first pitch. Target Field is a very hitter friendly park. My original hope was this might be sneaky as people might be hesitant to use the Twins without Escober and Dozier, but with the rapid rise in their implied run total, I doubt that's the case anymore. Still, I can't argue with what I'm seeing on paper and, like I said earlier, I'm less worried about ownership today given all the good places for offense. If you like the Twins then go for it. They have as much upside as anyone in this spot.

What stack do you like today? Head over to Twitter to vote on your favorite stack. Got another suggestion? Let us know in the comments.

The Bullpen Report

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @glandry if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@GP_Landry). Don't forget to sign up for the freeroll!

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