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Written by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GP_Landry on Twitter

Happy Wednesday everyone! We have an UGLY cash game slate tonight but what should be a fun tournament slate. There is zero safety at pitching but there are definitely some intriguing options with upside that we can look at. Plenty of bats today with all the poor pitching, so that would be an issue. As far as roster construction goes, focus on the ceiling and don’t worry about the floor today. I also wouldn’t worry much about ownership as I expect things to be pretty spread out with no clear cut option at pitcher and so many good spots for bats. It’s very hot and humid around the country again, which will further boost bats. We have rain threats in Cleveland and Cincinnati, so be sure to keep an eye out on those games. Let’s get to work!

High Priced Pitching

Sean Newcomb, ATL (vs. TB) (DK: $9.2K, FD: $8.3K)

Newcomb has not been kind to me this season. I feel like every time I pick him it doesn’t go well (great way to start off a recommendation huh?) He’s extremely volatile going from two strikeouts to eight and then back to two again. It’s just hard to know exactly what you’re going to get. But that’s really looking to be the case with basically any pitcher available to us today, so we need to plant our flag somewhere. Newcomb is standing out due to the matchup. The Rays are awful against left-handed pitching with a 25% strikeout rate and a .129 ISO and .302 wOBA. The Rays are likely to roll out a right-handed heavy lineup which should actually help Newcomb who is only allowing a .127 xISO and .302 xwOBA to right-handed batters compared to a .212 xISO and .327 xwOBA to left-handed batters. He has the strikeout upside to get the job done. In fact, if you can believe it, his 22.2% strikeout rate is third highest on this slate behind Freddy Peralta and Zack Godley. With Tampa Bay striking out 25% of the time to lefties, this really gives him a nice boost. If he can limit the walks, which is always an issue, it will go a long way toward helping him navigate through this game. The Rays have an implied total of four, which I’m okay with though, I wish it was lower, and the Braves are currently -135 favorites. Since I’m only focused on ceiling today, given the slate, Newcomb is definitely at the top of my priority list as he has a real shot at being the highest scoring pitcher today.

CC Sabathia, NYY (vs. CWS) (DK: $8.9K, FD: $8.2K)

Which team is worse against lefties than the Rays? The Chicago White Sox of course. They have a slightly higher .141 ISO but a lower .298 wOBA and they strikeout 26.3% of the time against left-handed pitching. This is fantastic news for Sabathia, who actually faced this team earlier in the month and went 5.2 innings allowing four hits and one earned run while striking out 12! It’s a shame the walks got him into trouble. He had a 19.06 K/9 rate going if he was able to pitch deeper into the game. He likely wouldn’t have got there but 15+ strikeouts was within the range of outcomes. He’ll get a second shot at them today, this time at home, where he’s pitched much better this season. Five of his seven wins have come in New York. He has a 4.13 xFIP with a 1.19 WHIP, 21.9% strikeouts and only 6% walks at home compared to a 4.50 xFIP with a 1.37 WHIP, 20.1% strikeouts and 10% walks when on the road. Overall, his 4.25 SIERA is much higher than his 3.30 ERA, which isn’t ideal, but I do like the 21% strikeouts and the 10.7% swinging strike rate which is third on the slate behind, you guessed it, Zack Godley and Freddy Peralta. The strikeout upside is definitely promising when you factor in the matchup today. His 45.2% groundball rate is also encouraging and he’s only allowing 28.5% hard contact. These things should help him limit any significant damage. In fact, Sabathia hasn’t given up more than two earned runs in a start since July 14th. His teammates should (key word “should” I know they were a huge let down last night) provide him plenty of run support, which will put him in a great spot to pick up the win as well. He’s a massive -260 favorite today. As of now, he’s my favorite pitcher on this slate. And if I were going to play cash games today, this is where I’d land as my SP1.

Value Pitching

Zack Godley, ARI (@SFG) (DK: $8.6K, FD: $9K)

I’m well aware he’s been shelled the last two times he faced the Giants. He also had one of his best starts all season against the Giants way back in April when he went seven innings, allowing four hits, zero earned runs and striking out nine. The recent results are scary but I’m not willing to let them cloud my judgement. Targeting the Giants with pitching has been a profitable strategy for much of this season. I’m not going to stop now based on a poor two-game sample size. Godley has a respectable 4.04 SIERA, which is lower than his 4.59 ERA and he also has an above average .330 BABIP, all of which suggest he’s pitching better than what we are seeing on paper. He has the second highest strikeout rate on the slate at 24% and the highest swinging strike rate at 11.9%. If he can limit the walks, he has a high 10% walk rate, he should be able to stay out of trouble in this one. The Giants should help him out with their low 7.9% walk rate and their high 24.1% strikeout rate. Both of those numbers will work in Godley’s favor. They also have a poor .146 ISO and .303 wOBA against right-handed pitching. I’m encouraged by the Giants low 3.7 implied run total and the Diamondbacks are slight favorites today.

Alex Cobb, BAL (@TOR) (DK: $6.4K, FD: $7.2K)

Cobb seems to be in a groove right now, and while I don’t want to trust all my money based on a small streak of success, it’s standing out on this slate that really lacks value pitching. In the month of August, Cobb has made five starts, going 2-1 with a 1.80 ERA (3.93 xFIP), 25 strikeouts in 35 innings, and a 49% groundball rate. He hasn’t given up more than two earned runs in any start this month and he’s gone at least six innings in all of them including a complete game on August 18th. Now, on the surface it doesn’t seem like a big deal. He’s strung together a few good games, but so what, his numbers are still terrible. Consider his opponents in August. The Yankees twice, the Indians (where he threw the complete game), the Red Sox (where he gave up just one earned run and had seven strikeouts), and then the Rays. Now it’s a bigger deal right? We are talking about three of the best teams in baseball and he completely dominated them. Is it luck? Could be. He’s had only a .232 BABIP and his xFIP is nearly two runs higher than his ERA. Has he figured out something mechanically or is he just gaining confidence? It’s hard to say. But with absolutely no value pitching that I’m even remotely comfortable with today, this recent track record against top quality opponents really caught my attention. Further supporting his recent success are his outstanding statcast numbers over the past month. He’s allowed 92 batted balls with a 51.1% groundball rate, only 20.7% hard contact and a 27.2% soft contact rate with an average exit velocity of 86.2 mph and a low average distance of 181.3 feet. These are elite level numbers. Is it sustainable? I doubt it considering the larger sample size this season. But for now, with value pitching being rough today, if I were paying down at pitcher, this is where I’m going.

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

If you’re new to the article, this is the section where I pick an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher to hit a long ball today. If there's a game at Coors Field, I always exclude them from this list because it's too obvious. So just keep that in mind. Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential.

Eddie Rosario, MIN: OF (DK: $5.1K, FD: $3.4K)

Unfortunately, we’ll need to watch the weather here, but this game has an implied total of 10 runs so there’s a lot of offense to be had if it plays. Rosario is standing out with a .221 ISO and 38.7% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. Plutko has a miserable 6.99 xFIP with only 10.4% strikeouts to lefties. He’s giving up 49.4% fly balls with a 20% HR/FB rate and 40.2% hard contact. This has resulted in a 3.32 HR/9. Opposing left-handed hitters have a .278 xISO against him this season. Plutko throws his fastball 63% of the time to left-handed hitters and Rosario has a .210 xISO against that pitch type.

Johan Camargo, ATL: 3B/SS (DK: $4K, FD: $3.2K)

Reports are that Jalen Beeks will be the “follow” player after the Rays opener gets the hook. Camargo has a .241 ISO and 40% hard-hit rate against left-handed pitching. Beeks really struggles with right-handed batters. He has a 4.69 xFIP and a low 16.4% strikeout rate. Beeks throws a fastball, changeup, and cutter to right-handed hitters. Camargo has a .368 xISO against fastballs, a .272 xISO against changeups, and a .441 xISO against cutters.

Justin Turner, LAD: 3B (DK: $5.3K, FD: $4.1K)

This is an amazing spot for Turner today who has a .247 ISO and a massive 50% hard hit rate against left-handed pitching. He strikes out only 14.4% of the time, which should benefit him greatly. Minor has a less than ideal 4.58 xFIP with 46.5% fly balls and 10.5% HR/FB. He allows an abysmal .265 xISO to right-handed hitters. Minor throws a fastball, changeup, and slider. Turner crushes each pitch type including a .288 xISO against fastballs, a .446 xISO against changeups, and a .277 xISO against sliders.

Value Bats

Similar to the home run watch list, in this section I’ll provide an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher who are priced in the value tier. If I can find someone under priced on both sites, I’ll highlight them. But in some cases, it could be site specific.

Tim Beckam, BAL: 3B/SS (DK: $3.3K, FD: $2.3K)

Beckham should get a spot at the top of the order against the lefty Borucki, who really struggles with right-handed bats. He has a 5.22 xFIP, a very low 14.4% strikeout rate while allowing a .191 xISO and .355 xwOBA. Beckham’s numbers aren’t spectacular but he does have a little power with a .179 ISO this season and a .549 wOBA + ISO over this last 150 at-bats against left-handed pitching. That’s the highest wOBA + ISO for anyone priced under 3500 on DraftKings today. He’s not an exciting pick, but there’s enough here for him to reach value. In fact, the entire Baltimore team should be a good source of value today if you need some salary relief.

Tyler Flowers, ATL: C (DK: $3.2K, FD: $2.4K)

The issue here is I’m not sure if he’ll play or not. Because the Rays will roll out Castillo as the opener, who is right-handed, it’s possible the Braves will start Suzuki instead. It would make more sense, in my opinion, to play Flowers since the bulk of their at-bats today should be against the left-handed Beeks once he comes in. But predicting how teams will attack this innovative Tampa Bay pitching strategy is difficult. The Braves were off last night so both players are seemingly fresh. If Flowers gets the start he’s a fantastic play. He’s likely to be overlooked since his numbers against right-handed pitching aren’t as exciting, but knowing that he’ll get a couple of shots at Beeks makes him a great value. He has a .271 ISO and .574 wOBA against lefties this season. If Suzuki gets the start, he’s also a fine option, but he’s also $1,000 more expensive on DraftKings. They are the same bottom of the barrel price ($2.4K) on FanDuel, so feel free to use whichever player gets the start over there.

Dilson Herrera, CIN: 2B/OF (DK: $3.9K, FD: $2.2K)

Unfortunately, Herrera is more of a value on FanDuel where he’s still near the minimum salary but he’s also not outfield eligible on that site. To be honest, outfield value today, particularly on DraftKings, is extremely rough. This is a position I’ll be looking to spend a little more, as opposed to the middle infield positions where I’m seeing some players I’d be okay using in order to save salary if I need it. We are working with a small sample size but he’s shown some power upside with a .212 ISO against right-handed pitching.

Stacks on Stacks

Chalk stacks today are looking like the Yankees (implied total of six runs), Cleveland (5.5 runs), and the Dodgers (5.5 runs). I will exclude them from this section and focus on a few of the more under the radar options that I like today.

Atlanta Braves (vs. Jalen Beeks)

Diego Castillo is expected to be the opener for this game, with Jalen Beeks coming in as the follower. I’m excited about a Braves matchup against the lefty, Beeks. They are smashing left-handed pitching this season with a .188 ISO, .346 wOBA, and 116 wRC+. On top of that, they strikeout at a very low 19.7% rate against left-handed pitching. Beeks has a 4.24 xFIP with a very high 1.53 WHIP and a really low 57.4% LOB%. He’s only striking out 18.8% of batters faced and he’s walking 11.4%. This is going to be a challenge for him. I already mentioned Johan Camargo, who I really like today, as a potential home run candidate. We also have Tyler Flowers, who is relatively inexpensive, and carries a .271 ISO and .537 wOBA against left-handed pitching (if he plays). Acuna has a .279 ISO and .387 wOBA. Albies is the other priority with a .208 ISO and .384 wOBA. In addition to them, you can also consider both Freddy Freeman and Nick Markakis, despite the lefty against lefty matchup. Freeman has a .251 ISO and .409 wOBA against lefties while Markakis has a .359 wOBA.

Texas Rangers (vs. Alex Wood)

This is purely a game theory perspective, but I’m assuming that Alex Wood will get some ownership with the lack of available pitching on this slate. He has arguably the best numbers with his 3.60 ERA and 3.89 SIERA. He also has a reasonable price tag, as I expected him at first glance to be one of the more expensive, if not the most expensive, pitcher on the slate and he’s actually in the middle of the pack. Still, if he turns into chalk, I’d prefer to bet against him in tournaments as I don’t have enough faith in him if he’s going to be popular. This is a terrible ballpark shift for him going from Dodger Stadium to Globe Life Park and it’s in the American League, which means he’ll have to face a DH instead of the pitcher. Despite the Rangers being a fairly left-handed heavy squad, they still have some upside against lefty pitching. They strikeout a ton, so there’s a lot of risk involved, but the ceiling is very high. Gallo has a .333 ISO and .357 wOBA but a 41% strikeout rate. Profar has a .200 ISO and .338 wOBA and Chirinos has a .200 ISO and .331 wOBA. Kiner-Falefa and Odor don’t have the same power but they still have a solid .355 wOBA and .346 wOBA, respectively. The game has a total of ten and it’s going to be 97 degrees at first pitch. The Texas implied run total opened at 4.7 runs. Definitely not a game I want to use pitching from.

Philadelphia Phillies (vs. Gio Gonzalez)

Gonzalez is having a rough season with a 4.76 SIERA, less than 20% strikeouts, and a 10.8% walk rate. The WHIP is very high at 1.52, which is one of my key stats when looking for pitchers to stack against. He’s lost three straight decisions and six of his last ten. He’s -14 in the month of August with a 6.84 ERA and a 5.06 xFIP. He has just 17 strikeouts in 26.1 innings (5.81 K/9) and he’s allowed 20 earned runs. He’ll be taking these poor results into a very hitter friendly environment today, in Citizens Bank Park, where it will be 91 degrees at first pitch. My core from this team is Wilson Ramos (.263 ISO, .404 wOBA), Rhys Hoskins (.355 wOBA), and Carlos Santana (.200 ISO, .328 wOBA). I’d also have interest in the newly acquired Jose Bautista if he’s in the lineup. He has a .185 ISO and .323 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. Hernandez (.327 wOBA) and Herrera (.325 wOBA) are also both on the radar. The Phillies opened with an implied total of 4.7 runs which is already up to 5 now.

The Bullpen Report

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @glandry if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@GP_Landry). Don't forget to sign up for today's freeroll and be sure to use the LineStar avatar to win 2x the prize!