Congratulations to the winners of yesterday's freeroll!

• 1st Place: BossEarl: 187.80

• 2nd Place: melmarco: 150.55

• 3rd Place: jonboy1122: 149.90

Don't forget, we are still hosting a daily (weekday) freeroll on DraftKings!

• 1st Place: $10 via PayPal

• 2nd & 3rd Places: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium, a t-shirt, or a coffee mug

• BONUS - If you win the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you'd like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

Here's the link for today's contest!

Written by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GP_Landry on Twitter

Full 15-game slate tonight so I'm going to keep the introduction short and sweet. We have three teams with HUGE implied totals of over six runs that stand out way above everyone else. The big question tonight is, are you buying the implied totals or are you fading in tournaments for some of the other good options? It's a loaded slate in terms of pitching with several studs available but all of them are in the high-priced tier, while value pitching is less inviting. You're going to have some difficult decisions to make tonight. It's a picture perfect day around the country with no threats or rain and very hot weather (outside of the two games on the west coast). This should be a really fun slate so let's get right to it.

High Priced Pitching

Max Scherzer, WAS (@PHI) (DK: $12.6K, FD: $12K)

The rematch of potential Cy Young winners is on and it should be another incredible pitcher’s duel. Mad Max got the best of Nola in the first meeting, going seven innings and allowing just two hits and two earned runs with 10 strikeouts. Scherzer has allowed just five earned runs in his last six starts and has four double-digit strikeout performances during that same span. Oh, and you thought this most recent performance against the Phillies was good? On May 6th, he had 15 strikeouts in just 6.1 innings while only giving up one earned run. That was his highest single game strikeout total this season. It makes sense, however, given that the current Phillies roster has the sixth highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching at 23.5%. Despite Philadelphia having some solid numbers (.180 ISO, .326 wOBA) I have zero confidence they can do anything against Scherzer’s 2.74 SIERA, 34.6% strikeout rate, and 16.2% swinging strike rate. He has the lowest WHIP on the slate (and this slate is full of stud pitching) at 0.89 to go along with an 84.8% LOB%. The active Phillies roster is a dismal 53 for 286 (.185 average) with only four home runs and 86 strikeouts. They have a very low .280 slugging percentage and a .535 OPS. Some players with notable sample sizes including Carlos Santana (4 for 48), Cesar Hernandez (8 for 37), Maikel Franco (3 for 24), Justin Bour (5 for 35), Asdrubal Cabrera (15 for 67), and Odubel Herrera, who actually is the only person with some success (13 for 39). I typically don’t take BvP into account very often when doing research but some of these sample sizes are large enough where I would weight them more than usual. The only risk here is the potential to not get the win bonus with his teammates also in a very difficult matchup against Aaron Nola. Scherzer is currently only a -114 favorite (opened at -110 so it’s increasing a little). But that’s a small risk to take considering the upside you know you’ll get in this spot. Don’t over think it, he’s the top pitcher on the slate. As an added bonus, he’s not currently priced through the roof, which only increases the value. Anytime he’s under $13K on DraftKings, he becomes almost an automatic play in cash games.  

Clay Buchholz, ARI (@SFG) (DK: $10K, FD: $9.1K)

Yup, you’re reading this correctly. Clay Buchholz is $10K on DraftKings and $9.1 on FanDuel and I have a lot of interest. Why, at this price point, would I want to roster him with several other options at similar (or better) price points? It’s simple. Nobody else will do this. With Morton, Flaherty, Carrasco, Nola, Scherzer, deGrom, and Hamels on this slate, nobody will want to pay this price tag for Buchholz. The bottom line, however, is he’s been outstanding. He’s 7-2 in 13 starts this season with a 3.94 SIERA, 21.3% strikeout rate, and a 1.03 WHIP. In the month of August, he’s 3-1 while allowing a total of just five earned runs in four starts. He’s gone at least seven innings in three of those four starts including a complete game back on August 16th. In his first start of the month, he faced this same Giants team, where he went six innings, allowing seven hits but only two earned runs and striking out eight. He’s had over 30 DraftKings points and 50 FanDuel points in each of his last two starts. We talked yesterday prior to the matchup with Patrick Corbin about how the Giants are banged up, well out of playoff contention, and doing what they can to sell off assets and look toward next season. They are striking out 24.1% of the time against right-handed pitching with only a .147 ISO and .304 wOBA. While Buchholz may not have the same upside as some of the other pitchers around him, the matchup today gives him enough of a lift to keep him in the conversation. If there were ever a night where his ceiling could compete with some of the other big names on this slate, this would be it. It seems like he may finally be healthy again for the first time in years, and while he may never flash that former All-Star team starter form that he had in Boston, he still has the stuff to be an excellent back of the rotation player. In the end, because it’s still Buchholz, I don’t trust him completely, so this is tournament only. But I really like him tonight at what will likely be under 10% ownership.  

Value Pitching

Julio Teheran, ATL (vs. TB) (DK: $8.2K, FD: $8.3K)

After a few rough starts where he failed to go past 5 innings, Teheran has managed to put together three consecutive quality starts against the Brewers (six innings, two hits, one earned run, six strikeouts), Rockies (seven innings, three hits, two earned runs, seven strikeouts), and Pirates (seven innings, two hits, one earned run, and five strikeouts). That’s right, three straight starts with no more than three hits or two earned runs. Each of these starts resulted in at least 20 or more DraftKings points and 37 or more FanDuel points. As an added bonus, given the recent trend, I was expecting him to be a bit more expensive today. Instead, his price has remained relatively flat and this will be his best matchup against a young, and sometimes exciting but still not intimidating, Tampa Bay Rays club. They strikeout 23.1% of the time to right-handed pitching with a low .145 ISO and .313 wOBA. Teheran already faced them this season, back on May 9th, where he went six innings allowing four hits, without giving up any runs and picking up seven strikeouts. Even with all this recent success, we still need to understand the risk involved. Recent results bias can sometimes be difficult to navigate, so while it’s encouraging to see his last three starts, there are still some red flags. His 4.63 SIERA is higher than his 4.09 ERA and his .216 BABIP suggests he’s been very lucky. I do like his 22.2% strikeouts and 11% swinging strikes but I’m very afraid of his 11.4% walk rate. The 1.18 WHIP is encouraging but the 41% fly ball rate, 15% HR/FB rate, and 37.7% hard contact rate are all concerning. See what I mean? For every good thing about him, there’s an argument to be made against him too. Still, even with these red flags, I don’t have any one single value pitcher who is standing out to me as a safe option tonight. Teheran, despite his flaws, still has arguably the best ceiling of anyone in this price range today. Just know that the floor is virtually non-existent. He’s strictly a tournament option, but with the momentum he currently has going in his favor and the market still not adjusting to that recent success, I think today, especially in this matchup, it’s a good spot to jump on board and hope he keeps it going for one more start. 

Felix Hernandez, SEA (@SDP) (DK: $5.5K, FD: $6K)

This world can be really, really cruel at times. The man who threw the most recent perfect game in the majors (back on August 15th, 2012), is a previous Cy Young Award winner, and the all-time franchise leader in strikeouts and wins for a Seattle franchise that includes names like Randy Johnson and Jamie Moyer, is a bottom of the barrel, punt pitcher, against one of the worst teams in baseball. It’s incredible in sports how someone can go from king to the bullpen in just a few short years. But that’s exactly what we have today, as Hernandez will make his second consecutive start after a brief stint in the pen. If there were ever a time for him to go out there and surprise everyone, however, this would be it. The Padres strikeout an embarrassing 24.7% of the time against right-handed pitching with an awful .135 ISO and .300 wOBA. Make no mistake, this is very risky. His numbers this season are ugly and that’s being nice. He has a 4.66 SIERA with just 17.8% strikeouts and only 8.2% swinging strikes. His WHIP is high at 1.42 and he’s allowing 38.7% hard contact. Over the past month, there’s a few encouraging numbers we can lean on, including a low 86.4 mile per hour average exit velocity and an average distance allowed of just 192.3 feet. He averages less fantasy points away from Safeco Field but it’s not a park downgrade today going to Petco Park, so he’ll stay in a pitcher friendly environment. Plus, being in a National League park, he’ll get the face the pitcher instead of the DH which will give him another boost. If there were ever a time to take a shot on him this would be it. Seattle is currently a -118 favorite and the Padres have a low implied total today of just 4.1 runs.  

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

If you’re new to the article, this is the section where I pick an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher to hit a long ball today. If there's a game at Coors Field, I always exclude them from this list because it's too obvious. So just keep that in mind. Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential.

Travis Shaw, MIL: 3B (DK: $4.6K, FD: $3.9K)

Pick any lefty and I’ll agree with you they are a home run candidate in this spot today. It’s a great park upgrade for Milwaukee going to Great American Ballpark, which is second best in the majors for home runs. DeSclafani is brutal against lefties allowing a .253 xISO and 85.2 mph average exit velocity. He allows 42.2% fly balls, a terrible 22.2% HR/FB, and 38.9% hard contact, which has resulted in 2.59 HR/9. Shaw has the highest numbers against right-handed pitching of any member of the Brewers. His .287 ISO and .373 wOBA are both excellent and he only strikeouts 16.7% of the time. He’ll crush it today.

Yasmani Grandal, LAD: C (DK: $4.6K, FD: $3.2K)

It’s going to be a VERY long day (or maybe short day depending on how you look at it) for Ariel Jurado and honestly, you can pick basically any member of the Dodgers for a possible home run. Grandal is standing out to me with his .253 ISO and 38.6% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. Jurado is allowing a .215 xISO and 88.3 mph average exit velocity. He also throws a two seam fastball 64% of the time against left-handed hitters and Grandal has a .298 xISO against that pitch type. Did I mention the massive park upgrade playing in Globe Life Park tonight?

JD Martinez, BOS: OF (DK: $5.9K, FD: $5K)

Urena should get into all kinds of trouble tonight with this park downgrade. Plus, Martinez hasn’t hit a home run in over a week and he’s no longer leading the league in home runs (Khris Davis – 39) so he’s due right? I’m kidding, being “due” should not be a strategy for choosing players. This lines up as a great spot for him regardless of when the last time he hit one was. He has a .352 ISO and 46.6% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. 33 of his 38 home runs this season have come against righties and 22 of his 38 home runs have come at Fenway Park. Bombs away.  

Value Bats

Similar to the home run watch list, in this section I’ll provide an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher who are priced in the value tier. If I can find someone under priced on both sites, I’ll highlight them. But in some cases, it could be site specific.

Ketel Marte, ARI: 2B/SS (DK: $3.3K, FD: $3K)

Marte is a huge value on DraftKings today where he’s only $300 more than he is on FanDuel. He’s jumping off the page with some of the advanced metrics. He’s tied for the highest wOBA+ISO at .598, has the third highest FP/PA at 2.03, and has the second highest FP/PA Delta at 0.38 of anyone priced under $3.5K. His splits are impressive including a .248 ISO and .392 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. Bumgarner has a uninspiring 4.59 xFIP with a low 18.6% strikeout rate to right-handed hitters. They have a .190 xISO and .329 xwOBA against him.

Brandon Belt, SFG: 1B (DK: $3.5K, FD: $3K)

I know I recommended Buchholz as a pitching option but that doesn’t mean Belt isn’t standing out as a value. Buchholz certainly isn’t an untouchable pitcher even if I like him in this spot today. Belt is standing out with a .578 wOBA+ISO and a 1.81 FP/PA over his last 150 at-bats against right-handed pitching. He also has a solid .215 ISO and .370 wOBA this season against righties. All of these numbers are too good for a player priced in this tier.  

Jackie Bradley Jr, BOS: OF (DK: $3.8K, FD: $2.5K)

As I mentioned earlier, this is a big park downgrade for Jose Urena, who can normally get away with his .205 xISO against lefties when pitching in Marlins Park but will now have to pitch in Fenway tonight. He’s got drastic splits between right-handed and left-handed batters, where he is far worse against the latter. He has a 4.41 xFIP and a very low 16.4% strikeout rate while allowing 42.5% hard contact. Bradley has had an excellent month of August including a .349 wOBA and .236 ISO in 78 plate appearances. He’s a tremendous value, particularly on FanDuel, and will give you cheap exposure to a team with a shot at being the top scoring offense of the night. I love the idea of using him in a less-expensive wrap-around stack that allows you to fit in some of the top of the Boston order.   

Stacks on Stacks

The Dodgers against Jurado at Globe Life Park are far and away my favorite stack of the night. The Yankees, at home against Big Game James (sorry @ZeroInDenver) and the Red Sox at home against Jose Urena round out the top three implied totals tonight. They are all over six runs, well above the next closest team, so they will be the ones I exclude for today.

Milwaukee Brewers (vs. Anthony DeSclafani)

It’s really difficult not to have interest in the teams facing off in Great American Ballpark. Today is no different. Admittedly, DeSclafani was someone that piqued my interest for a bit when he put together three consecutive quality starts going at least seven innings in each and allowing a total of just two earned runs. He even had nine strikeouts against the Diamondbacks on August 10th. But then he started to come back down to earth again in his last outing where he went six innings, allowing five runs (four earned) including two home runs. The Brewers are still in the playoff race despite the mediocre baseball they are playing right now (5-5 in their last ten games). They are just 4.5 back of the Cubs in the division and hold a one game lead over Colorado for the second wildcard spot. Every game counts for them right now. There is still a ton of power in this lineup and they should have no problem taking advantage of DeSclafani’s 19.3% HR/FB and 41.3% hard contact rate. Shaw, for obvious reasons, is clearly my favorite. I mentioned him already in the home run watch list today. I also like Aguilar (.280 ISO, .381 wOBA), Yelich (.227 ISO, .380 wOBA), Moustakas (.241 ISO, .344 wOBA), and Thames (.283 ISO, .342 wOBA) as the priorities. You can even include Cain (.336 wOBA), and Schoop (.222 ISO) as secondary options. The Brewers opened with a solid 4.8 implied total that is now at 5 and they should fly under the radar considering some of the massive implied totals that are on this slate. 

Cleveland Indians (vs. Kyle Gibson)

Cleveland is a part of that tier of teams this season where if you find yourself on a slate where they are looking like they’ll be low owned then you pretty much have to take a shot. Similar to the Red Sox or the Yankees, this offense is just way too good to be left alone. Today is setting up as one of those slates with the Indians having over a full run lower implied total than the Yankees, Dodgers, and Red Sox, which should lead to significantly lower ownership as well. Gibson has had mixed results against them this season with a couple of starts earlier in the year where he gave up two earned runs or less and then a couple of more recent starts where he gave up three earned runs or more. Regardless of the pitcher, this is simply not a lineup to be messed with. Ramirez has a .357 ISO and .439 wOBA against right-handed pitching. Lindor is a close second with a .256 ISO and .361 wOBA. Encarnacion has been solid since returning from the disabled list with three home runs and six runs batted in in his last five games. Brantley has a .185 ISO and .377 wOBA and Alonso has a .215 ISO and .338 wOBA. Those players are the priorities. Depending on how the lineup shakes out there are some other pieces here you could also include such as Kipnis or Cabrera. The Indians have an implied total of just over five runs which on a normal slate would be one of if not the highest but on a stacked slate like this it’s fourth highest and well below the top three. They should be low owned with some serious upside.

Houston Astros (vs. Edwin Jackson)

The Astros came through big-time last night and I’m going right back to this well again. Similar to yesterday, this should be another situation where this team goes completely overlooked. It’s the perfect time for Houston to start catching fire. They are facing the team that is battling them for the division lead and they finally have all their studs back from injury. I think they start turning on the jets here and begin to run away with the AL West. I want to jump on that train before others catch on. Last night was the first step, so I’ll continue to have exposure to these guys in the right matchup. Edwin Jackson’s numbers indicate a lot of regression. His 2.97 ERA is great but his 4.90 SIERA is terrifying. Anytime I see a pitcher with a SIERA that is two runs higher than his ERA I want to attack that guy as much as possible. The well below average .230 BABIP also suggests he’s been way more lucky than good. Further supporting this point is his much higher expected ISO and wOBA than his current ISO and wOBA to both sides of the plate. Against lefties, he’s allowing a .185 ISO and .296 wOBA but a .231 xISO and .357 xwOBA. Against righties, he’s allowing a .153 ISO and .289 wOBA but a .217 xISO and .353 xwOBA. Bregman will continue to be my favorite player from this team until everyone else gets back to full strength. He has a .231 ISO and .384 wOBA against right-handed pitching. George Springer returned last night and went one for five with a double, two runs scored and an RBI. Altuve has picked up right where he left off with four multi-hit games in the six he’s played since returning from the disabled list. Correa has eight hits in his last eight games with six runs scored and five runs batted in. This team is getting hot right when it counts. Don’t miss out. Similar to the Indians, they have an implied run total of five tonight, which would typically be one of if not the highest run total on most slates.  

The Bullpen Report

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @glandry if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@GP_Landry). Don't forget to sign up for today's freeroll and be sure to use the LineStar avatar to win 2x the prize!