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Written by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GP_Landry on Twitter

After a wonderful week in the great state of New Hampshire, I’m excited to get back to the grind! I hope you all had a good week as well and are enjoying the end of your summer. Before we get into today, I just wanted to thank the man, the myth, the wizard, but definitely not the legend, @ZeroInDenver for taking the time to cover for me. I did my best to unplug last week but I did take the time to read his articles. It was great to get insight into how he approaches a slate. I am a stat nerd, I look at all the numbers, breakdown all the matchups, and narrow my player pool down to who I believe are the best plays of the day to create one lineup. It’s a style best suited for cash and single entry contests. @ZeroInDenver focuses less on the numbers and instead looks at a slate and tries to figure out what the rest of the field is going to do and where does it make the most sense to bet against them. It’s more of a risk but it can also be more exciting, and when it hits, it can hit big, as opposed to my more boring but steadily profitable approach. Neither style is wrong, it just depends on what you are most comfortable with. It was fun to read from someone who plays differently than I do.

Alright, let’s get back to today. Fortunately, the Fantasy Gods are smiling down on me and easing me back in with a solid, yet small, seven game slate. We’ve got reasonable pitching options and good spots for offense as well. The big news weather wise will be at Wrigley Field today where it will be 87 degrees and the winds are expected to be blowing out at 17 miles per hour. I’ll be avoiding pitchers in that game today and looking for offense.

High Priced Pitching

Gerrit Cole, HOU (vs. OAK) (DK: $12K, FD: $10.8K)

Cole continues to be one of the most reliable pitchers in baseball. He’s gone at least five innings in all 26 of his starts this season. He’s had at least seven strikeouts in eight of his last ten starts and double digit strikeouts twice during that span. We are getting a price discount on him today as well, he was $13.3K his last time out on DraftKings where he was solid (5 innings, seven hits, two earned runs, and seven strikeouts) if not spectacular, so I’m having a hard time justifying why his price would drop so much. On FanDuel, he’s somehow not the most expensive pitcher on the slate. He’s had a lot of success against Oakland this season. In his most recent start, he went six innings, allowing three hits, zero earned runs, and picking up eleven strikeouts. His first start against them, he went six innings allowing four hits, just one earned run, while picking up nine strikeouts. In the middle of those starts, he did have a less exciting outing against them where he went six innings again, allowing six hits and four earned runs, that time with only six strikeouts. I’m viewing that game as the floor while the zero earned runs and double-digit strikeouts is the ceiling. This gives him arguably the best floor/ceiling combination of any pitcher on this slate and this is the cheapest he’s been on DraftKings since July 24th when he was pitching in Coors, which really doesn’t count since everyone gets a discount in that situation. If we don’t count that game, than it’s actually the cheapest he’s been since June 1st against the Red Sox when he was $11.6 on DK. Oakland has the lowest implied total on the board today at just 3.4 runs and the Astros are comfortable -183 favorites, which has actually increased after opening at -170. If you’re paying up for pitcher in cash, Cole is the guy you want and he certainly has more than enough ceiling to be viable in tournaments as well.

Patrick Corbin, ARI (@SFG) (DK: $11.5K, FD: $11.1K)

The highest swinging strike rate on this slate belongs to none other than Patrick Corbin, who gets a favorable matchup against a struggling Giants team. Entering this season, the Giants had high hopes with some of the additions they made, but with just over a month left of baseball, and being eight games back in a tough division, it would appear they’ve given up on this season. Buster Posey was placed on the disabled list and will miss the remainder of the year and the team is passing players through waivers looking to make any potential deals that might help them build for the future. The rumors are that Andrew McCutchen could be gone at any point. All of this is good news for Corbin who’s been very consistent as the season rolls along. He’s won four of his last six starts, going at least six innings in each, and having no less than seven strikeouts in any of them. Similar to Cole against the Athletics, Corbin has faced the Giants three times this season and also had good results. His most recent outing was earlier this month when he went six innings, scattering seven hits that only turned into three earned runs, and getting eight strikeouts. He also had a complete game one hitter with nine strikeouts against them way back in April (yes, that was a long time ago but it was also a healthy team at the start of the season so still impressive.) It’s difficult to argue with the numbers he’s produced this year. He has a 2.90 SIERA with 30.8% strikeouts and an outstanding 15.1% swinging strike rate (as I mentioned the highest on the slate). His WHIP is impressive at just 1.03 while forcing 48.4% groundballs. The only downside is the 42.3% hard contact he’s allowing but I’m not weighing that as heavily considering the matchup and the very pitcher friendly environment he’ll be in today. His floor is lower than Cole's, so I’m going to find the extra money on DraftKings to pay up for Cole in cash games. On FanDuel, being $300 more expensive, again I think you have to go Cole in cash. But all of this should reduce ownership on Corbin and I believe he has a similar ceiling in this spot, which makes him an elite tournament option. The Giants have a low implied total of just 3.5 runs and the Diamond backs are -170 favorites. Corbin makes for an excellent option today.

Value Pitching

Jon Gray, COL (@LAA) (DK: $8.7K, FD: $8.9K)

Speaking of struggling teams, the Angels finally got Mike Trout back and responded by getting swept by the Astros. They’ve lost six in a row, eight of their last ten, and are well out of the playoff hunt at this point in the season. Today they’ll take on a Colorado team going in the opposite direction, having won seven of their last ten and currently just one game back of first in a very close NL West race. Gray continues to make steady progress since his return to the big club after being sent down to Triple-A for a few weeks. He’s 2-0 in seven starts and has allowed more than three earned runs just once in that span. He’s also gone seven innings or more in five of those seven starts. On the season, the Angels are one of the better teams in baseball against right-handed pitching with a low 20.6% strikeout rate, a .184 ISO, .329 wOBA, and 111 wRC+. But, things are trending down as they have a 21.2% strikeout rate to go along with a .164 ISO and only a .303 wOBA over their last 30 days. Granted, this was all without Trout but he’s still only one bat in this lineup. You’re also going to make the argument that it’s a bad matchup because he’s in an American League Park and has to face the DH. My response to that would be do you prefer him to be pitching at home, in Coors Field, and get to face the pitcher? I’ll take a Colorado pitcher in an American League Park all day. The season long numbers have suggested positive regression all season and that process seems to have started more recently. His 3.34 SIERA is over a run lower than his 4.67 ERA and his .330 BABIP suggests he’s been better than what we are actually seeing on paper. He has a high 27.1% strikeout rate that is supported by his 13.6% swinging strike rate. His splits to both sides of the plate are very good with a 3.05 xFIP and 29.2% strikeouts to lefties and a 3.18 xFIP and 24.9% strikeout rate to righties. I believe he goes overlooked for tournaments today with people looking to either pay up or pay down while he’s priced in the middle tier. I also don’t mind him for cash games if you’re looking to pay down a little at pitcher in order to squeeze in some more bats (though I still prefer paying up for Cole). The Angels have an implied run total under four, which is typically what I’m looking for in a cash game pitcher, and the Rockies are a -145 favorite.

Sam Gaviglio, TOR (@BAL) (DK: $7K, FD: $7.3K)

I’m not in love with this option, and this is more than I’d like to spend on Gaviglio, but if I’m paying down at pitcher today, this is the lowest I’m willing to go. The downside here is this will be the third time he’s faced the Orioles in just over a month span, including his most recent start last week. But given the inexperience in this Baltimore lineup, I’m willing to overlook that especially considering the success Gaviglio has had. He’s gone seven innings or more in both games and had eight strikeouts the first time and seven strikeouts in this most recent start. He gave up four earned runs the first time and only two earned runs in the last start. I do think Baltimore has been better with some of the younger prospects being included but they still have a long way to go. Over the past 30 days, they are striking out 23.9% of the time to right-handed pitching with only a .153 ISO and .318 wOBA. His numbers do give us a little to work with. The 4.00 SIERA is respectable, especially when you consider how much lower it is than his 4.94 ERA. The 21.5% strikeouts are fine, though I do expect that number to decrease considering the 9.3% swinging strike rate. He forces 47.3% groundballs, which is a plus, and the BABIP is above average at .313, which suggests he’s been a little unlucky. He’s worse against lefties, with a 4.94 xFIP and only 15.3% strikeouts but there aren’t any lefties in this lineup that make me nervous. Sure, Chris Davis could connect with the one ball per week that he hits but we aren’t avoiding a team because of him. Gaviglio is excellent against righties, which is why this matchup is so appealing. He has a 3.23 xFIP and 26.4% strikeouts. Normally, I wouldn’t trust him in cash, but with a lack of cheap SP2 options, I think you have to consider it on DraftKings. He’s a better option for tournaments with the upside he’s flashed against the team.

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

If you’re new to the article, this is the section where I pick an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher to hit a long ball today. If there's a game at Coors Field, I always exclude them from this list because it's too obvious. So just keep that in mind. Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential. I’m going to exclude Wrigley Field today. 87 degrees and winds blowing out at nearly 20 miles per hour in that small park is just way too obvious. Everyone playing in that game is on the home run watch list today. Here are some other options.

Kendrys Morales, TOR: 1B (DK: $5K, FD: $4.1K)

For the most part, while I was away, I unplugged from DFS. I built a couple of teams here and there but I really tried to give myself a mental break. I kept up with the box scores throughout the week to make sure I was up to speed on recent events for when I came back. Something that stood out to me when I was away was the ridiculous hot streak that Morales is on. He hit a home run every game that I was on vacation except for the very first day. He also had one day with two home runs. That’s six games in a row with a home run and seven home runs in that same span. The home runs haven’t been the only hits either. He’s 12 for 24 with a .775 wOBA and only 12.5% strikeouts over the past week. There are a lot of theories out there about whether or not hot streaks are real. I, personally, am a believer (especially in baseball). Even if you’re not, you should be in this case. There’s no reason the streak won’t continue against David Hess who has given up five home runs in his last four appearances and 16 home runs in his 13 starts this season.

Bryce Harper, WAS: OF (DK: $5.1K, FD: $4.6K)

For the record, I’m only not picking McKinney because I didn’t want to pick two players from the same team. I try to mix it up as much as I can. I LOVE Toronto today and all those guys are on the home run list as far as I’m concerned. Just know they are going to be mega-chalk. As far has Harper goes, Eflin hasn’t had success against the Nationals this season, including his last start when he got tagged for ten runs and four earned runs, with only two strikeouts in only 3.1 innings pitched. Granted, the Nationals lost a couple of big left-handed pieces over the past week but that doesn’t change the fact that Eflin still struggles with lefties and the Nationals still have a few left that can do serious damage, especially Harper. Eflin is allowing 43% fly balls and 14.5% HR/FB, which has resulted in 1.74 HR/9 to left-handed hitters this season. Harper has a .278 ISO and 42.5% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. He also profiles well against Eflin’s pitch types, including a .255 xISO against fastballs, a .271 xISO against changeups, and a .431 xISO against two-seam fastballs.

Gleyber Torres, NYY: 2B (DK: $4.2K, FD: $4K)

This will be the first meeting between Rodon and the rookie sensation Gleyber Torres. While Rodon isn’t giving up a high expected ISO to right-handed hitters, there’s a lot in his numbers that suggest regression is coming (we’ll talk more about that in the stack section). Torres is crushing left-handed pitching with a .256 ISO and a massive 48.4% hard-hit rate this season. He hits Rodon’s pitch types very well. Most notably a slider, which he throws about 30% of the time, and Torres has a ridiculous .800 xISO and .568 xwOBA against this season.

Value Bats

Similar to the home run watch list, in this section I’ll provide an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher who are priced in the value tier. If I can find someone under priced on both sites, I’ll highlight them. But in some cases, it could be site specific.

Luke Voit, NYY: 1B (DK: $3.4K, FD: $2K)

Obviously, at this point, we understand the upside this guy brings to the table. He had two huge games last week, including going three for five with two home runs and four runs batted in on August 24th and then backing that up two days later going three for three with another home run and two runs batted in on August 26th. Yet, for some reason, he’s a few hundred dollars cheaper today on DraftKings (he’s still minimum salary on FanDuel) than he was last week? Doesn’t make much sense to me. The downside is the spot he’ll get in the lineup order but don’t let that prevent you from using him if happen to land here. The potential with him far outweighs the lost opportunity from one less at bat.

Russell Martin, TOR: C (DK: $3.4K, FD: $2.5K)

He’s having a bad season but he’s still far too cheap for a matchup with David Hess who is the perfect medicine for someone to shake off a slump and get some momentum going. His career .327 wOBA against right-handed pitching is certainly a plus and he has an above average .501 wOBA+ISO against righties over his last 150 games. Hess is allowing a .227 xISO and .339 xwOBA to right-handed hitters this season. Martin is an excellent way to fill a difficult catcher position and also get some cheap exposure to what could be the highest scoring team on the slate tonight.

Odubel Herrera, PHI: OF (DK: $4.1K, FD: $2.5K)

His price has plummeted over the past week on FanDuel and he’s simply too talented to be this cheap. It’s a difficult matchup, absolutely, but Strasburg isn’t untouchable, especially this season. Herrera is a guy that we were forcing into our lineups at over $4K on FanDuel (over $5K on DraftKings) earlier this season. Talent doesn’t just disappear. The upside is still here. He has a very respectable .189 ISO and .331 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Strasburg is allowing a .177 xISO and .322 wOBA against left-handed hitters, which are not numbers I’ll shy away from. Herrera is certainly not high in my priority list, but if I happened to land here and it made the rest of my lineup work on DraftKings (on FanDuel he’s too expensive for this matchup) I’d be fine with it.

Stacks on Stacks

I’m going to exclude both the Mets and the Cubs as well as the Blue Jays as I believe they will be the most popular stacks today. The Mets and Cubs are playing in Wrigley, which has ideal hitting conditions today at 87 degrees and the winds blowing out. The Blue Jays are facing David Hess and everyone knows stacking against David Hess typically leads to good things. I love each of these teams but just know they will be the most popular in my opinion. Here are three others to consider if you’re looking to be more off the radar.

New York Yankees (vs. Carlos Rodon)

With Toronto, Chicago, and the other New York team expected to be chalk, that means the Yankees, against a lefty, could actually fly under the radar a little tonight. They opened with a 4.8 implied run total that has already climbed to 5.5 runs, which is a huge jump. Yet, because the Jays are playing David Hess and the hitting conditions we are expecting in Chicago, those teams will still get more attention (rightfully so). This makes the Yankees stack an elite tournament option at what should be lower ownership. Rodon has been pretty solid this season but this is a bad matchup against a Yankees team that smashes lefties. Plus, Rodon’s numbers are screaming regression. His 2.71 ERA is nearly two runs lower than his 4.74 SIERA. He has a 1.50 ERA against lefties but a 4.05 xFIP and a 3.03 ERA against righties with a 5.10 xFIP. The WHIP is very high at 1.52 and he’s allowing an awful 40.6% hard contact rate. As a team, the Yankees have a ridiculous .212 ISO, .344 wOBA, 117 wRC+, and 38.1% hard-hit rate against left-handed pitching. Giancarlo Stanton against a lefty is obviously my favorite option here and no analysis is needed to explain why. He kills lefties. That simple. Play him tonight. Obviously I like Gleyber Torres as well since he’s part of the home run watch list and Luke Voit who I mentioned as one of my value bats tonight. You can basically make a case for any bat in this lineup today.

Houston Astros (vs. Brett Anderson)

If the Yankees are going to be less owned than the Blue Jays, Mets, and Cubs, then the Astros could go completely overlooked even on this small slate. For starters, this has one of the lower totals on the slate at just eight runs. Second, Brett Anderson has been holding his own recently, allowing just a total of two earned runs in the month of August. But despite the recent performance, it’s still a small sample size and Houston is the best team in baseball against left-handed pitching with a very low 19.6% strikeout rate and a very high .192 ISO, .349 wOBA, and 124 wRC+. It’s true Anderson hasn’t allowed many runs recently, but his very low 13.1% strikeout rate and 7.2% swinging strike rate are going to make it very difficult for him to get out of trouble against a team that doesn’t strikeout. He’s also allowing a .193 xISO and .368 xwOBA to lefties and a .205 xISO and .338 xwOBA to righties. On top of all that, the Astros are also getting healthy again with Correa finally showing a little life, Jose Altuve returning from the disabled list last week, and George Springer expected to be back today. That’s a major boost to this offense. Alex Bregman is my favorite option from this team, but assuming Springer is activated and healthy, then he’s a close second. Basically the whole lineup is available for stacking. They may very well end up being my favorite option of the day if they are going to be as low owned as I think they will be.

Colorado Rockies (vs. Odrisamer Despaigne)

I’m not a huge fan of the Rockies outside of Coors Field but then it occurred to me that neither is anyone else. On a small, seven game slate, there’s a lot more to like about this idea than meets the eye. For starters, it’s a very positive matchup against Despaigne, who hasn’t gone past four innings in either of his starts with the Angels. This likely means extra at-bats against the bullpen who have a very low 19.5% strikeout rate to go along with an ugly 4.35 xFIP over the past month. The lefties are the priority for me with David Dahl leading the way. He has a .238 ISO and .388 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. I also like Carlos Gonzalez (.205 ISO, .358 wOBA), and Charlie Blackmon (.225 ISO and .355 wOBA). I much prefer Story and Arenado against lefties but they can certainly make some noise against righties. Story has a .228 ISO and .358 wOBA and Arenado has a .200 ISO and .350 wOBA against righties. If you’re looking to go off the board, in a large field tournament, on a small slate like this one, you could do a lot worse than this option. Colorado currently has a 4.8 implied run total which actually puts them ahead of the Mets and the Astros. I’m guessing these guys will be under 10% owned across the board.

The Bullpen Report

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @glandry if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@GP_Landry). Don't forget to sign up for today's freeroll and be sure to use the LineStar avatar to win 2x the prize!