Top MLB Plays 8/23 | HAPPY BIG GAME JAMES DAY

August 23, 2018

Thanks to @ZeroInDenver for filling in this week! We will resume freeroll contests when @GP_Landry is back from his well deserved vacation.

All joking aside, I want to thank LineStar for letting me fill in while @glandry is on vacation. It's been a blast to do. I also appreciate all the kind words and support. Thanks for taking the time to read the newsletter and I hope it's helped - even if it's been to play the opposite of who I liked. 😂

Pitching: Spending Up

EARLY: Jacob deGrom NYM (vs SF) (DK: $11.9K, FD: $12K)

Keep in mind, I'm writing this the night before, but I'm leaning deGrom because Scherzer is cheaper on DraftKings. My hope is that most will take the salary savings on Max, lowering deGrom's ownership. (I'm betting most don't spend up for either on FanDuel).

MAIN: Cole Hamels, CHC (vs CIN) (DK: $10.4K, FD: $9.2K)

Reasons I like Cole Hamels:

  • Pitch speed is up

  • Statcast numbers are trending down

  • Pitching at home

From a game theory perspective though, I would probably pivot off of Hamels on FanDuel for Duffy, especially in larger field tournaments.

Pitching: Value

EARLY: James Shields, CWS (@ DET) (DK: $5K, FD: $7.5K)

BIG GAME JAMES. That's right.

All fan boy love aside, I really like him . His Statcast numbers are trending down, and he's hit salary-expected value over 75% of the time over the past month. Also, at $5K on DraftKings, he's virtually a steal, but expect higher ownership with that price tag.

MAIN: Danny Duffy, KC (@ TB) (DK: $6.4K, FD: $8.3K)

I like the Duffman a lot more on DK where he's underpriced at $6.4K. I think a lot of people will go that direction. Tropicana isn't a great ballpark if you like offense (24th in homeruns and 25th in runs in MLB this season). Plus Tampa has been miserable against LHP over the past 2 weeks (0.237 wOBA and 0.084 ISO).

Pitching: Punt

Consider it a bit of a dare. With a 4-game early and a 4-game main slate, do you dare take the cheapest pitchers on each slate? If you're playing large-field tournaments (especially with multiple lineups, it makes sense from a game theory perspective.

Early: Adam Plutko, CLE (@BOS) (DK: $4.1K, FD: $5.9K)

Main: Elieser Hernandez, MIA (vs ATL) (DK $4.1K, FD $5.5K)

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

If you’re new to the article, this is (@glandry's) section where he picks an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher to hit a long ball today. Happy to play along on this. Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential. That will give you a good idea of batters with good history or splits. I take it a little further and look for players that meet all (or almost all) of the following criteria:

  • wOBA + ISO of .600 or higher

  • Hard Contact rate above 40%

  • Exit velocity over 94 MPH

  • Average distance of 250 ft or greater

Early Slate:

J.D. Martinez, BOS: OF (DK: $5.7K, FD: $4.8K)

Francisco Lindor, CLE: SS (DK: $5.1K, FD: $4.2K)

Matt Davidson, CWS: 1B/3B (DK: $4.2K, FD: $2.9K)

Main Slate:

Khris Davis, OAK: OF (DK: $5.7K, FD: $4.3K)

Ben Zobrist, CHC: 2B/OF (DK: $4.4K, FD: $3.3K)

Jose Peraza, CIN: SS (DK: $4.3K, FD: $2.8K)

Value Bats

Similar to the home run watch list, in this section, I’ll provide an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher who are priced in the value tier. If I can find someone under priced on both sites, I’ll highlight them. But in some cases, it could be site specific.

Early Slate:

Mikie Mahtook, DET: OF (DK: $3.2K, FD: $2.1K)

Wilmer Flores, NYM: 1B (DK: $4.1K, FD: $3.1K)

I like him his price more for FanDuel, but hope that people will try to move up to someone like Mitch Moreland

I like him his price more for FanDuel, but would expect lower ownership when Mitch Moreland is $400 more on Draftkings

Wilmer Difo, WAS C (DK: $2.8K, FD: $2.2K)

Keep an eye out for the Washington lineup. I like him more if he bats near the top of the order, but he has a decent hard hit rate and has some stolen base potentional. Remember, there's a reason he's min-priced, but he's a decent punt.

Keep an eye out for the Washington lineup. I like him more if he bats near the top of the order, but he has a decent hard hit rate and

Main Slate:

Keep an eye on the MLB Dashboard to make sure these guys are confirmed starters

Ryan O'Hearn, KC: 1B (DK: $3.5K, FD: $2.4K)

I know he was in the newsletter yesterday, but his price actually went DOWN. Get him while he's cheap and raking.

Mitch Garver, MIN: C (DK: $3.5K, FD: $2.4K)

Ender Inciarte, ATL: OF (DK: $3.9K, FD: $2.6K)

I don't like the park, but I do like that he gets a good matchup and is a stolen base threat.

Stacks on Stacks

On short slates like this, I like to max out stacks (4 hitters on FD, 5 hitters on DK) in tournaments. As always, the more you stack, the more risk you incur, but it can pay off if a team really goes off.

EARLY:

  • Popular stacks: Red Sox, White Sox

  • Biscuit stacks: Indians, Giants

  • Game stack: White Sox-Tigers

MAIN:

  • Popular stacks: A's Cubs

  • Biscuit stacks: Braves, Twins

  • Game stack: A's-Twins

The Bullpen Report

Bullpen numbers over the past 2 weeks are listed below. Green is good, red is not good. So for example, Philly is facing a no bueno bullpen from Washington today.

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @ZeroInDenver if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@ZeroInDenver).

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