Top MLB Plays 8/20 | Slumpbusters

Thanks to @ZeroInDenver for filling in this week! We will resume freeroll contests when @GP_Landry is back from his well deserved vacation.

Yesterday...

For anyone who took the weekend off, I'm covering for @glandry while he's on a much needed and deserved vacation.

You'll quickly find that our styles are very different. He digs much deeper into numbers than I do. I approach most slates more from a game theory perspective and look more at who people like (or don't like) and make choices based off of that. Some of it will make sense, some of it probably won't. So if you have any questions, please hit me up in chat and I'd be happy to elaborate.

So with that, let's jump into this 10-game slate.

Pitching: Spending Up

Gerrit Cole, HOU (@SEA) (DK: $13.3K, FD: $10.6K)

As far as I'm concerned, there are two pitchers in the top tier that I would consider tonight. (No way am I paying up for Porcello - even with your money.) Either is fine, but again, I'd rather pay up for the pitcher that doesn't have to face the Red Sox.

Pitching: Value

Zack Wheeler, NYM (vs SF) (DK: $9.3K, FD: $9.1K)

Again, I'm trying not to overthink this one. In terms of pitchers in this middle-tier, I like Wheeler, Archer and Wood in that order. Wheeler will probably be popular tonight and I wouldn't hesitate to put him in cash lineups (if I played cash games of course lol)

Pitching: Punt

Andrew Cashner, BAL (@CLE) (DK: $5.7K, FD: $6.3K)

For those that missed the weekend newsletters, here are a few things I think of when picking a punt pitcher:

  • Who can get me the most innings?

  • Who can get me some strikeouts?

  • Who are other people likely to play?

I've had some mild success in rostering Cashner over the past couple of starts. Don't expect a whole lot from him. He doesn't strike out a lot of people and he seems to get knocked around after his second time through the order, but he's my favorite in the bottom of the barrel. In fact, I'd be thrilled to get 10 points on DraftKings or 20 points from him on FanDuel.

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

If you’re new to the article, this is (@glandry's) section where he picks an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher to hit a long ball today. Happy to play along on this. Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential.

Matt Chapman, OAK: 3B (DK: $4.3K, FD: $3K)

Chalky McChalkerson. But I'm listing him because he's criminally underpriced on FanDuel today. He should be popular, and I hate the term "lock" but I feel he's pretty close to a must-have in cash games today.

Mallex Smith, TB: OF (DK: $4.6K, FD: $2.8K)

His numbers aren't great, but he's a threat to steal bases anytime he gets on base. His pricing is a little high for me on DraftKings, but he's a much better bargain on FanDuel.

Rougned Odor, TEX: 2B (DK: $4.3K, FD: $3.9K)

SPOILER: I like Texas bats today. One of my favorite is Rougie, who has a decent matchup and has been hitting the ball well lately.

Value Bats

Similar to the home run watch list, in this section, I’ll provide an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher who are priced in the value tier. If I can find someone under priced on both sites, I’ll highlight them. But in some cases, it could be site specific.

Yandy Diaz CLE: OF (DK: $3.5K, FD: $2.8K)

When looking for value, I always like looking for batters in teams facing pitchers I have no interest in starting. Porcello is at the top of the list. So looking at Cleveland bats, I've had success in the past looking at the 7-9 spots (Yandy currently projected 9th on LineStar) as they stand a good chance at picking up some extra points by knocking in one of their studs at the top of the order or getting knocked in by one.

Alex Gordon, KC: OF ($3.2K, FD: $2.7K)

As a whole, Tampa relief pitching has a 40% hard hit rate over the last 2 weeks. Gordon doesn't have great numbers, but I like his Statcast numbers over the past 2 weeks along with a high expected spot in the batting order that I'm willing to take a chance on him.

Marwin Gonzalez, HOU: OF/SS, 2B (DK: $3.5K, FD: $3.1K)

Besides Marwin's 50% hard contact rate, he's got a 25%+ line drive ratio over the past two weeks. I like Houston today and hope he gets lost in the shuffle as he's expected to bat 6th today.

Stacks on Stacks

If you're playing GPPs, you're going to want to stack. If a team you stacked has a good night, you stand a good chance of your lineups placing high. There are a lot of teams that make for good stacks tonight and I expect Oakland and Minnesota to be popular, so there's no need for me to mention them here. Instead, here's a few stacks that I'll have decent shares of tonight.

Houston Astros (vs. SEA )

When it comes to the Astros, I'm a "fade at home, stack on the road" kind of guy. Now Felix Hernandez has been better at home, but he's also got no bueno FIP of 4.88 and an aye dios mio WHIP of 1.47.

Milwaukee Brewers (vs. CIN )

The big question is who's pitching for Cincinnati today? Cy Bailey or Homerun Bailey? If Cy Bailey shows up, there's going to be some sad people in chat. However, if the Homer Bailey we all know and stack against shows up, it good be a good night for Brewers stacks.

Texas Rangers (vs. OAK ) *Biscuit Stack*

I was looking at Mike Fiers's Statcast deltas for distance, hard hit, and exit velocity and they're not good. Also, Rangers ranked pretty high on my personal model as well, so I'm going to be taking a swing with the Rangers today.

The Bullpen Report

Last 2 weeks as of 8/20

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @ZeroInDenver if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@ZeroInDenver).

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