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Written by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GP_Landry on Twitter

Happy Hall of Fame Game Day! Can you believe it? Live NFL action on our TV tonight. In the meantime, the baseball season keeps rolling as we’ve got a nine-game slate to discuss on this Thursday night. The top-tier of pitching is pretty loaded and makes for some interesting decisions. I like each of Scherzer, Kershaw, Greinke, and Foltynewicz for different reasons but I'll highlight the two who are standing out to me more. Value pitching is pretty ugly but there’s one person in particular, even though most of you won’t like it, that’s standing out to me. I go on a couple of rants in this article so I apologize in advance. FanDuel’s pricing tonight is obnoxious. There is value everywhere. The team with the highest implied total on the board only has two players in the projected starting lineup priced over $3K. There’s nothing we can do it about it. We have to play the slate that’s given to us and that’s exactly what we are going to do. There are some weather impacts today including rain in the forecast in Washington and Philadelphia, extreme heat in Texas, and possibly heavy winds blowing out in New York and Boston. Keep an eye on that and have backup plans in place, particularly with the rain games. Good luck today!

High Priced Pitchers

Max Scherzer, WAS (vs. CIN) (DK: $13K, FD: $11.8K)

There are several good top-tier options today but to nobody’s surprise, Scherzer stands out above them all. He had a couple of strange back to back starts where he had only three and five strikeouts, but then he bounced back after the All-Star break with seven strikeouts against Atlanta and eleven strikeouts against Miami in his last outing. Before we get to the numbers, which are absurd, something that draws me to Scherzer is his ability to consistently pitch deep into games. He has one game this season, in 22 starts, that he pitched fewer than six innings. He’s gone at least seven innings in more than half of those starts (12) and at least eight innings in four of those starts. In an era of baseball where it seems like pitchers get pulled earlier in games every season and teams rely way more on their bullpens, Scherzer’s consistency gives him a floor that simply can’t be matched in cash games. The same can also be said for his ceiling, given his 2.73 SIERA, 34.4% strikeout rate, and 16.6% swinging strike rate. He has an elite 0.90 WHIP while allowing just a .145 xISO and .250 xwOBA to lefties and a .181 xISO and .284 xwOBA to righties. Today, he’ll face a Cincinnati Reds team that was a seller at the deadline and is well out of the playoff hunt. Plus, they’ve been bitten by the injury bug with Scott Schebler and Jesse Winkler both on the shelf and having to turn to younger prospects like Phillip Ervin and, the newly acquired, Preston Tucker to pick up the slack. The bottom line? Outside of Votto, Gennett and Suarez, there just isn’t much here. Tucker is a good prospect but he’s still developing and certainly not somebody we need to worry about against Scherzer. He’s a -277 favorite and the Reds have the lowest implied total on the board today at just 2.68. He’s the cash game play today and he’s certainly in the conversation for tournaments as well, though with all the other options in this tier, I don’t think fading him is out of the question if it appears he’ll be chalk.

Zack Greinke, ARI (vs. SF) (DK: $11.2K, FD: $11K)

I really like Greinke for tournaments today and I think he has a chance to be the lowest owned guy out of the top four today (no, I’m not counting Bumgarner as a top tier option today). Scherzer is obviously in a good spot and carries name recognition. Kershaw also carries name recognition, has seemed more like himself recently, and is facing a Brewers team that struggles against left-handed pitching, and Foltynewicz is taking on a really weak Mets lineup. I think all those guys get the bulk of the ownership and leave Grienke to fly a bit under the radar. He’s won seven of his last eight starts and has pitched at least six innings in all but one of them. He's had at least 26 DraftKings points (46 FanDuel points) in his last three starts including a 44 fantasy point performance (70 FanDuel) against the Rockies on July 22nd. His season numbers back up the recent success. He has a 3.31 SIERA, 26.1% strikeouts, and 11.3% strikeout rate. The WHIP is outstanding at 1.05 along with the LOB% at 83.1%. His splits against both sides of the plate are excellent and pretty much identical. Versus lefties, he has a 3.22 xFIP, 24.3% strikeouts and only 4.2% walks. Versus righties, he has a 3.23 xFIP with a slightly higher 27.5 strikeout rate, and a 4.5% walk rate. The one blemish on his resume is a .221 xISO and 44.3% hard contact rate against right-handed hitters. But that doesn’t concern me in this matchup. I continue to talk about targeting the Giants with pitching and it’s been working out great. Their performance, particularly against righties with Brandon Belt still on the disabled list, continues to get worse. The strikeout rate is almost at 24% (23.8%) with a very low .143 ISO, .308 wOBA, and 94 wRC+. McCutchen, Longoria, Crawford, and Posey all have average or below average numbers against right-handed pitching this season. Greinke is a very healthy -162 favorite today and the Giants have a super low 3.3 implied run total. I still like Scherzer more for cash games, but in tournaments, Greinke should absolutely be on your radar.

Value Pitching

Nick Pivetta, PHI (vs. MIA) (DK: $8.5K, FD: $8.3K)

I’m so sick and tired of having this internal struggle with myself about playing pitchers against the Marlins. On paper it should be so obvious. They are not a good team. They have a miserable .126 ISO, .300 wOBA, and 88 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season. They also strikeout at an above average 22.9% rate. But like all of you, I’ve been burned by this play more than once this season. Still, this is baseball and we have to keep playing what the numbers tell us to do and not let recent results cloud our judgement. Pivetta is, without question, the best value pitcher on the board today. Just for one second, forget about the Marlins and act like they aren’t the opponent today. If I told you we had a pitcher with a 3.27 SIERA, 29% strikeouts, and 12.1% swinging strikes for $8.5K on DraftKings and $8.3K on FanDuel would you be interested? That’s a higher strikeout rate and swinging strike rate than Kershaw, Greinke, and Foltynewicz, yet he’s priced thousands of dollars less than they are. What if I also told you this pitcher has a 2.79 xFIP and 31.5% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters and a 3.84 xFIP and 26.2% strikeout rate against left-handed hitters? That’s a no brainer right? I refuse to let the annoying Miami Marlins scare me off a pitcher, with these kind of numbers, at this price. He’s arguably the best play on the board today. If you’ve already sworn off of playing pitchers against Miami and you refuse to follow me on this one, I won’t talk you out of it. I get it. I’m simply making a recommendation based on what I’m seeing in the numbers today. I love Pivetta in this spot and at this price. I hope other people refuse to play him. He's your SP2 in cash on DraftKings and he makes for a great value option in tournaments today on both sites.

CC Sabathia, NYY (@BOS) (DK: $5.9K, FD: $7.5K)

Value pitching is rough on this slate but if you wanted to take a shot on Sabathia in tournaments I wouldn't talk you out of it. He's faced Boston twice this season with mixed results. The first time was back on May 10th where he only managed four innings allowing nine hits and four earned runs with five strikeouts. More recently, on June 29th, he went seven innings with six hits and only one earned run while striking out five. That second performance was good enough for 23 DraftKings points (at $6.5K) and a spot in the perfect lineup. With his price being even lower today ($5.9K) I think you have to at least consider him, as uncomfortable as that may be. The Red Sox continue to struggle with left-handed pitching. As a team they have just a .153 ISO, .318 wOBA, and only 32.6% hard-hits. They also strikeout nearly 24% of the time to lefties, which gives a boost to Sabathia's below average strikeout rate. Plus, it's possible he gets a watered down lineup tonight after Xander Bogaerts took a pitch off the hand in Tuesday night's game. The X-Rays came back negative but it wouldn't shock me to see him get an extra night off to nurse that injury. Boston has the best record in baseball and a 5.5 game lead on New York, so they need to be thinking about long term. At this stage in Sabathia's career, he's far from a sure thing. His 4.38 SIERA and 18.8% strikeout rate do very little to get you excited. But behind those surface numbers, there is reason for optimism. First, despite the low strikeouts, he does have a 10.3% swinging strike rate. He also does an excellent job limiting hard contact giving up a very impressive 17.7% to lefties and 31.4% to righties. Opposing left-handed hitters have just a .101 xISO and .273 xwOBA while right-handed hitters have a .167 xISO and .316 xwOBA. In the past month, Sabathia has a 55.9% groundball rate while allowing just 20.6% hard contact (23.5% soft contact). During that span, the average exit velocity is very low at 86.8 mph and the average distance is only 189.7 feet. I'll point out that Vegas does not agree with me as Boston has one of the highest implied run totals on the board today. But it seems as though Boston's total is always over five runs, regardless of the opponent, and they've had plenty of games this season where they fell well short of that when facing left-handed pitching. Sabathia is not safe but I like him in tournaments as an SP2 at his price on DraftKings. For the record, he's a little pricey on FanDuel and I think you can do better over there considering you only need one pitcher anyway.

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

If you’re new to the article, this is the section where I pick an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher to hit a long ball today. Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential.

Ozzie Albies, ATL: 2B (DK: $5K, FD: $4.2K)

I love Atlanta today, particularly Albies, who has a .220 ISO and 40.7% hard-hit rate against left-handed pitching this season. Vargas has a 41.2% fly ball rate, with 21.4% HR/FB and 37.7% hard contact against righties. He’s allowing 2.64 HR/9 and they have a .223 xISO against him. Plus, Vargas throws a two-seam fastball, a fastball, and a changeup. Albies has a .437 xISO against two-seam fastballs, a .223 xISO against fastballs, and a .268 xISO against change ups. He’s my favorite option for a home run from a middle infield position today.

Matt Adams, WAS: 1B (DK: $4.4K, FD: $2.9K)

Should somebody call the Reds front office and let them know that Mahle throwing 70% fastballs isn’t working? Then again, I guess it wouldn’t matter because while he’s allowing a horrible .194 xISO against his fastball, he’s allowing a worse .259 xISO on his changeup and a .445 xISO on his slider. Either way, it’s great news for Matt Adams who has a very high .295 ISO and 39.2% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. As for the fastball? Adams has a .346 xISO against it. As an added bonus, Adams is way too cheap on FanDuel at just $2.9K.

Shin-Soo Choo, TEX: OF (DK: $4.9K, FD: $2.9K)

The Coors Field of the American League is back in our lives after a short break. The Orioles will travel to Texas to take on the Rangers and Andrew Cashner will take the hill for Baltimore. He’s allowing a .229 xISO including a 14.9% HR/FB on 38.7% fly balls with 33.7% hard contact. Choo has a .247 ISO and a massive 48.3% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. He also profiles well against Cashner’s pitch types which are a two-seam fastball, fastball, and changeup. Choo smashes each of these including a .241 xISO against two-seam fastballs, a .491 xISO against fastballs, and a .300 xISO against changeups. Just like Adams, Choo’s price on FanDuel is a joke. He’s only $2.9K. Exactly $2K less than his price on DraftKings tonight. If you can fit him on DraftKings, play him. He’s a cash game lock on FanDuel.

Value Bats

Similar to the home run watch list, in this section I’ll provide an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher who are priced in the value tier. If I can find someone under priced on both sites, I’ll highlight them. But in some cases it could be site specific.

Robinson Chirinos, TEX: C (DK: $4.2K, FD: $2.4K)

I have no clue what’s going on with FanDuel’s pricing today on the Texas Rangers. It actually feels like it might be a mistake. Only two members of the projected starting lineup are priced over $3K. Four members of that lineup are under $2.5K. They are priced like they are facing Max Scherzer. Just one problem. They are facing Andrew Cashner! The Rangers have the highest implied total on the board today and everyone on the team is basically free. A Texas stack is firmly in play in cash games on FanDuel and I can’t imagine they won’t be mega-chalk in tournaments, so play them at your own risk. Okay, pricing rant over. The real reason we are here is because Chirinos is an absolute steal on FanDuel tonight. He has a .210 ISO, .325 wOBA, and 46% hard-hit rate. He fills a difficult catcher position and because of the utility spot, you can pair him with Guzman if you wanted. Chirinos is also in play on DraftKings, but obviously he’ll be exponentially more difficult to fit in.

Wilmer Flores, NYM: 1B/3B (DK: $3.2K, FD: $2.8K)

For some reason, Flores decided this year that he wanted to crush right-handed pitching instead of left-handed pitching. In his career, he has a .221 ISO and .338 wOBA against lefties and a .148 ISO, .304 wOBA against righties. This season, however, he has a .221 ISO and .353 wOBA against righties and only a .105 ISO and .279 wOBA against lefties. I have no idea what to make of this, but it helps us out tonight as he’s facing a right-handed pitcher. Foltynewicz is not somebody I want to go out of my way to attack, but if you were desperate for value to make your lineup work, there’s enough upside here to take a shot.

Nick Williams, PHI: OF (DK: $4.1K, FD: $2.5K)

Another egregious pricing difference between the two sites. The conclusion of this section today is that value is very difficult to find on DraftKings and there’s so much value on FanDuel that I can build a crazy good team with thousands of dollars in salary cap still left over. The Phillies return home, which is a great park for left-handed power, and will take on Trevor Richards who allows 42.1% hard contact to left-handed hitters. Williams has a .213 ISO and .339 wOBA against right-handed pitching.

Stacks on Stacks

There are a LOT of teams worthy of a stack today. In fact, six teams have an implied run total of five or more as of right now and several others are just below that mark. I encourage you to dig a little deeper on the numbers, find a spot you like, and go for it. I wouldn't worry about ownership too much today (besides the Rangers on FanDuel) with so many directions you can go.

Washington Nationals (vs. Tyler Mahle)

Remember that whole thing I mentioned earlier about Tyler Mahle throwing his fastball 70% of the time to left-handed batters? I forgot to mention he also throws it 65% of the time to right-handed batters. Yeah, that’s not going to work against the Nationals. Let’s take a quick look at some of Washington’s players against fastballs this season: Trea Turner (.330 xISO, .440 xwOBA), Bryce Harper (.308 xISO, .408 xwOBA), Anthony Rendon (.264 xISO, .439 xwOBA), Matt Adams (.346 xISO, .437 xwOBA), Juan Soto (.437 xISO, .493 xwOBA), Adam Eaton (.403 xwOBA), Ryan Zimmerman (.333 xISO, .402 xwOBA), and Daniel Murphy (.273 xISO, .437 xwOBA), and Mark Reynolds, who probably won’t play but we can mention him anyway for fun (.454 xISO, .468 xwOBA). If Mahle makes it past the second inning in this game, I’ll be shocked. Once he gets the hook, we are looking at a Reds bullpen that has a 4.23 xFIP, 12.9% HR/FB, and 37.4% hard contact allowed. Right now, Washington opened below the five run mark for implied team totals but it's climbed up to 5.1 runs as of this writing. It won't be another 25 run night like we saw a few days ago but this is another spot for them to break this slate.

Atlanta Braves (vs. Jason Vargas)

Vargas is allowing the second most HR/9 to left-handed batters on this slate (that honor of course belongs to Tyler Mahle) and the most HR/9 to right-handed batters. Opposing lefties have a .214 xISO and .398 xwOBA against him, while opposing righties have a .223 xISO and .366 xwOBA. He has a 4.87 SIERA with a very high 1.79 WHIP and a very low 17.6% strikeout rate. He’s an outstanding candidate to stack against on tonight’s slate. The Braves are a top five team in baseball this season against left-handed pitching. They have only a 19.9% strikeout rate to go along with a .185 ISO, .337 wOBA, a 110 wRC+, and 36% hard-hit rate. Believe it or not, it’s Johan Camargo who leads the way for Atlanta. He has a .294 ISO and .388 wOBA against lefties this season. Freddie Freeman would be next with his .268 ISO and .426 wOBA. Tyler Flowers has incredible numbers including a .263 ISO, .543 wOBA, and 53.6% hard-hit rate, and then Ozzie Albies who we already covered in detail in the home run watch list. Those players are the priorities. You can also take a look at Dansby Swanson and his .178 ISO and 43.1% hard-hit rate as well as Nick Markakis and his .176 ISO and .373 wOBA. Ronald Acuna has a .172 ISO and 36.4% hard-hits but with 27.8% strikeouts. He’s a boom or bust option at best. The Braves implied run total currently sits just below five runs, which could make them a sneaky, high upside option in tournaments.

Arizona Diamondbacks (vs. Madison Bumgarner)

As I mentioned already, there are a lot of good teams to stack today, so you don’t need to go here, but I like it enough that I wanted to make a case for the Diamondbacks. This is your large field GPP stack at very low ownership kind of play today. The name Madison Bumgarner alone will automatically drop ownership on these bats, when in reality, he’s not nearly the pitcher he was a couple of seasons ago. He has a 4.56 SIERA which is exactly 1.5 runs higher than his 3.06 ERA. The BABIP against him is super low at .253, which means he’s been more lucky than good up to this point. He has only 19.7% strikeouts with 9.3% swinging strikes. Everything suggests he’s a candidate for regression. For the purposes of using Arizona bats against him, we care mostly about his performance versus right-handed hitters as that is basically all he will see. Similar to his full splits view, his 4.55 xFIP is much higher than his 3.71 ERA and the BABIP is only at .257. He’s allowing a .179 xISO, .329 xwOBA, and 36.9% hard contact. There is nothing here that is telling me to stay away from right-handed Arizona bats. In fact, this should be an incredibly sneaky (less than 5% owned) yet high upside stack today. They have two of the best in the business against lefties with AJ Pollock’s .342 ISO, .393 wOBA, and 46.9% hard-hits as well as Paul Goldschmidt’s .308 ISO, .431 wOBA, and 51.2% hard-hits. They are the core. After that, you can plug in basically any of the remaining lineup. I mentioned this the other day, but one of the things I love about stacking Arizona against a lefty is they have a player in almost every position, which makes it easy to pair them up with another team. Martie, Ahmed, and Murphy all have an ISO over .220 and play positions that are often lacking in power. Steven Souza Jr.’s power numbers are not great but his insane 62.5% hard-hit rate suggests things will definitely improve. Arizona’s implied run total opened at a respectable 4.2 and is currently up to 4.3. Good enough to make me think Vegas agrees they are worth a look but not so good that anyone else will look this way. I’ll absolutely have some shares of this team in larger field tournaments on this slate tonight.

What stack do you like today? Head over to Twitter to vote on your favorite stack. Got another suggestion? Let us know in the comments.

The Bullpen Report

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