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Written by LineStar Fantasy Wizard @ZeroInDenver on Twitter

In case you hadn't heard, I'm filling in for @glandry over the next week while he takes a much deserved vacation.

The biggest thing you can expect from me over the next week is to elaborate a little more on my process - both in approach and building lineups. Some of it's based on stats, some of it is just based on chatter regarding who people like and going the other direction. If you have questions, let me know in chat.

So with that said, let's jump into the slate. We have an 11-game slate on tap tonight. In terms of weather, it looks like we'll have some issues possibly with Miami@Washington, Colorado@Atlanta, and Angels@Texas. I've mentioned this in chat, but we're in the point of the season where MLB is going to do whatever they can to get games in. PPDs aren't out of the question, but I think they're at a smaller risk than they are earlier in the season. Keep an eye on chat for any weather updates.

Pitching: Spending Up

David Price, BOS (vs. TB) (DK: $9.8K, FD: $10.1K)

The first thing I like to ask myself when looking at pitching is "can they hit value?" But how can we judge value in MLB? Basically, I'd say for cash games, we want 3 points per $1000 spent on salary on DK and 5 points per $1000 on salary on FD.

Keeping that in mind, I think the best two choices for that are Madison Bumgarner and David Price. I'll be honest, I don't love either, but I'm going to lean Price for two reasons. For starters, he's pitching at home against a week Tampa Bay team who has one of the worst ISO numbers by handedness. Second, I have more confidence in Boston's offense putting up runs to give you those precious win bonus points.

Pitching: Value

Joe Musgrove, PIT (vs CHC) (DK: $7.8K, FD: $8.0K)

In terms of pitching, I like to live in the middle or "value" tier for most of my lineups. I find this gives me the best balance of getting a pitcher with some kind of floor with a little upside and being able to fit decent bats or stacks into my lineup.

Mikolas, Heaney, and Musgrove are my top 3. You could make a case for either one (and I'll certainly have shares of each), but I'll pick Musgrove as my favorite. His Statcast numbers are decent. He has strikeout upside. He's gone 6 or more innings his last 4 starts, and I just think he flies a little under the radar with the other three I mentioned and Godley on the slate. I plan on having a healthy number of shares of him in GPP lineups tonight.

Pitching: Punt

Matt Harvey, CIN (vs SF) (DK: $6.5K, FD: $6.5K)

Ok, so you've built a lineup with all the top bats you like for the night and you're now making a walk of shame through the pitching bargain bin aisle. Lots of bad choices to be made here, so here's a few things I think of when picking a punt pitcher:

• Who can get me the most innings?

• Who can get me some strikeouts?

• Who are other people likely to play?

Keep in mind, there's no good choices here. But I'm going to lean Matt Harvey. Hear me out. He's been terrible at times, but his Statcast deltas are pretty good when you compare the past two weeks over the current season. He also gets the benefit of pitching at home against a NL team (no DH). And let's be real, I don't really want to stack San Francisco tonight.

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

If you’re new to the article, this is (@glandry's) section where he picks an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher to hit a long ball today. Happy to play along on this. Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential.

Ryan Zimmerman, WAS: 1B (DK: 4.7K, FD: $3.2K)

Washington is one of my favorite stacks for today and Zimmerman is my favorite play at 1B as well.

When picking these kinds of plays, I'm generally looking for players with a wOBA+ISO number above .600, a hard contact rate above 40%, exit velocity over 94mph, and average distance over 250. Zimmerman has all going for him.

J.D. Martinez, BOS: OF (DK: $5.8K, FD: $4.9K)

I was trying to explain DFS to my wife, and I remember telling her "you can't just pick the best players", but here we are with J.D. Martinez. Again, he checks all the boxes (aside from distance) and has a great matchup. Only concern with him is the weather in Boston tonight. Keep an eye on it as we move closer to lock.

Manny Machado, LA: SS (DK: $4.7K, FD: $4.2K)

Sometimes when picking players, I work backwards. In other words, what pitchers do I NOT want to pick. Erasmo Ramirez was high on the list. Plus Manny has been hot lately. I've been watching him and even when he doesn't get a hit, he's hitting the ball hard (54% hard contact over the past 2 weeks).

Value Bats

Similar to the home run watch list, in this section, I’ll provide an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher who are priced in the value tier. If I can find someone under priced on both sites, I’ll highlight them. But in some cases, it could be site specific.

Nicky Delmonico CWS: OF

When looking for value, I always like to start with teams that have a high-implied run total or are facing garbage pitching. The White Sox represent both and I think Delmonico is in a good spot tonight.

Joe Mauer, MIN: 1B ($3.6K, FD: $2.5K)

I like Mauer's pricing better on FanDuel. Minnesota is one of my favorite stacks tonight and Mauer gets a great matchup tonight at the top of the order. Also, with a lot of top-tier first basemen on the slate, dropping down to a value play could be a great way to differentiate.

Rene Rivera, LAA: OF (DK: $3K, FD: $2.4K)

Catcher is usually my favorite spot to punt since you can often find a min-priced player that can get you some decent fantasy points. We're still waiting for a confirmed lineup from the Angels, but I'm hoping that Rivera is in the lineup tonight. He's got a great matchup in a great ballpark and has great Statcast numbers over the past 2 weeks.

Stacks on Stacks

For anyone that's read my NHL newsletters, you'll remember that I don't like pointing out the obvious. Stack Braves, Twins and Red Sox to your heart's desire tonight. You shouldn't need me to tell you why. Let's look at a few other options

Washington Nationals (vs. MIA )

I let LineStar do a lot of my work these days. Go to the Daily Matchups page, filter by pitcher, and scroll to the bottom. Who do you see? That's right, Chen. Feel free to load up Washington stacks.

St. Louis (vs. MIL )

Some of you know that I've built my own personal model that's based on a variety of team (and opposing team pitching) numbers over the past two weeks as well as the deltas between those numbers and season numbers. St. Louis was the top-ranked stack in that model and I have no issue with a right-heavy St. Louis lineup going up against Wade Miley.

San Diego (vs. ARI )

Godley is the top-loved pitcher on the main slate today. By principle alone, I'm going to stack against him. Especially if THE GREAT HUNTER RENFROE lands a spot in the lineup.

The Bullpen Report

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @ZeroInDenver if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@ZeroInDenver).

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