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Written by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GP_Landry on Twitter

Before we jump into today, I'll be heading out on vacation next week so I'll be taking a break from writing the newsletters for about ten days. Don't worry, I'm leaving you in the very capable hands of @ZeroInDenver who will be covering while I'm gone. This is a much better slate (Friday slates usually are) we have a ton of pitching and hitting options. As you can tell from the title of the newsletter today, I'm a big fan of the Indians, but I do believe they will be chalk with their implied run total being over six runs. There are some weather concerns we'll need to keep an eye on. There's potential rain in Pittsburgh, Washington, and Cincinnati. It's also really hot in Minnesota, Texas, and Washington, so give an extra boost to the bats in those parks. We've got a lot to talk about today so let's get right to it!

High Priced Pitching

Max Scherzer, WAS (vs. MIA) (DK: $12.6K, FD: $12.2K)

Scherzer has double digit strikeouts in three of his last four starts including a game against this Miami lineup where he went eight innings, allowing three hits, zero earned runs, and had eleven strikeouts. He hasn’t lost a game since July 7th against the Red Sox. The floor is ridiculous. He’s only pitched less than six innings once in all 25 of his starts this year. He’s only had less than seven strikeouts four times during that same span. He’s also only allowed more than three earned runs twice all season. It’s incredible. The ceiling is equally impressive. He has thirteen (thirteen!) double-digit strikeout games in 25 starts this season. Over 50% of his starts have ended in double-digit strikeouts. Absurd. The irony here is that both of those games where he had four earned runs came against the Marlins! You have to love baseball. If you took a random sample of baseball fans and asked them which two teams put up four runs against Scherzer this season, you would get answers like the Red Sox, Yankees, Astros, etc. Nope, the freaking Miami Marlins are the only team this season to achieve that and they did it twice. They are also responsible for two of the four games he’s had less than seven strikeouts. You always have to expect the unexpected in baseball. Regardless, there’s no way I’m not playing Scherzer today. I just thought those were fun facts to be shared. He’s still, without question, the number one arm on the board. Plus, Miami’s lineup has changed throughout the season including the loss of Justin Bour who was arguably their most dangerous hitter. The active Marlins roster is 27th against right-handed pitching including a .121 ISO, .299 wOBA, and 87 wRC+. They strikeout a little less than I’d like, at 21.2%, but that doesn’t matter against Scherzer. Believe it or not, he’s not the largest favorite on the board today. That honor belongs to Carlos Carrasco who is a -372. Scherzer is still a massive -355 and the Marlins have the lowest implied total on the board today at just 2.6 runs. Don’t try to get cute with this one. Play him in cash and tournaments today.  

Jack Flaherty, STL (vs. MIL) (DK: $9.8K, FD: $9.1K)

I’m really excited about Flaherty tonight. He’s priced in the middle of the upper tier of pitchers where there are excellent options both above and below him. I think he ends up on an island tonight as a result with people looking to pay up for Scherzer, Carrasco, and Morton or pay below him for Hamels. He’s had 9, 8, 7, 7, and 9 strikeouts in his last five starts. Today, he’ll face a Brewers team that he’s absolutely dominated this season. In his first meeting, he took a no decision, but only allowed six hits, with one earned run, and struck out nine in five innings. In the second game, once again he took a no decision, but this time he went seven innings, allowing just one hit and one earned run with 13 strikeouts. The bullpen blew that second game for him. It’s notable that both of those games were in Miller Park, which is 16th in runs scored and 6th in home runs allowed, whereas today the Brewers will take a park downgrade at Busch Stadium which is 22nd in runs scored and home runs allowed. His season stats are on par with, or in many cases better than, both Carrasco and Morton, who are priced above him. His 3.36 SIERA is lower than Morton. His 30.2% strikeout rate is tied with Morton and better than Carrasco’s 28.1%. His 12.9% swinging strike rate is better than Morton’s 12.7%. His 1.08 WHIP is better than Morton’s 1.15 and Carrasco’s 1.12. Yet, he’s over $1K less on DraftKings and $1.9K less on FanDuel than Carrasco, and a few hundred less on DraftKings and $700 less on FanDuel than Morton.  It doesn’t make sense to me that a pitcher would be so much cheaper despite having the same (or a higher ceiling) than anyone priced above him not named Scherzer. But he is and I’m going to take advantage of it hopefully at low ownership. He's my favorite tournament arm on this slate.

Value Pitching

Cole Hamels, CHC (@PIT) (DK: $8.7K, FD: $8.9K)

Hamels is undervalued in my opinion the way he’s been pitching since becoming a Cub. I realize this will only be his fourth start, and the sample size is still small, but ever since he stopped having to pitch the majority of his games in Globe Life Park, he’s looked like a new man. He’s 2-0 in those three starts with a 2.76 xFIP and 20 strikeouts (only four walks) in 18 innings of work. He’s given up just two earned runs total. Today, Hamels gets a huge park upgrade with the Cubs on the road in pitcher friendly PNC Park. He’s already faced the Pirates once, just a couple of weeks ago, in his first game as a Cub. He went five innings, allowing just three hits and one earned run while striking out nine. As far as the season is concerned, he has a 3.96 xFIP with 23.5% strikeouts and 12.3% swinging strikes. Left-handed bats are his biggest issue where he has a 4.35 xFIP, only 19.1% strikeouts, and a very high 12.4% walks and 1.58 WHIP. He does, however, force 55.9% groundballs and allows just a .084 xISO and .324 xwOBA. Against righties, he has a much more comfortable 3.92 xFIP with 24.2% strikeouts and only 7.3% walks. Right-handed hitters have a much higher .217 xISO and .352 xwOBA against him. In the past month, he’s allowed 59 batted balls of which 22% have been soft contact. His average exit velocity is very low at just 86.9 mph and he hasn’t allowed a single barreled ball during that span. He’s a -138 favorite and the Pirates have an implied run total that opened at four but has already fallen to 3.7, which is just increasing my confidence in Hamels today. He’s in play for both cash games and tournaments on this slate.  

Brian Johnson, BOS (vs. TBR) (DK: $6.8K, FD: $6.4K)

Finally, it seems like Brian Johnson is starting to pitch deeper into games. It started off where he would never go past four innings, then it crept up to five innings for a few starts, and now in his last start he went seven innings. He’s 3-3 in eight starts on the season. He has 4.04 SIERA with 22.2% strikeout rate, which is solid given his price point today. He’s had at least five strikeouts in five of his eight starts and he even flashed some upside recently when he struck out eleven Yankees in just five innings of work back on August 2nd. This is an ideal matchup for him as the Rays are likely to only have three righties in their lineup. Assuming that holds true, it would put Johnson in a great position to succeed today. He’s outstanding against lefties, with a 3.98 xFIP, 25.6% strikeouts, and only allowing a .126 xISO and .266 xwOBA. Right-handed hitters are a bit scarier with his 4.32 xFIP, 21.1% strikeouts, and allowing a .202 xISO and .347 xwOBA. Not ideal, but outside of CJ Cron, there isn’t much for right-handed hitters in this Tampa Bay lineup that I’m afraid of. As a team, the Rays have a very high 25.3% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season and a very low .125 ISO and .310 wOBA. The Red Sox are a very comfortable -174 favorite today and Tampa Bay has an implied total of just 4.1 runs. Johnson makes for a terrific salary saver, particularly as an SP2 on DraftKings in tournaments.   

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

If you’re new to the article, this is the section where I pick an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher to hit a long ball today. If there's a game at Coors Field, I always exclude them from this list because it's too obvious. So just keep that in mind. Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential.

Brandon Belt, SFG: 1B (DK: 4.2K, FD: $2.7K)

This is literally the best upgrade possible for a left-handed power bat. AT&T Park is the worst stadium in baseball for left-handed power and Great American Ballpark is the best. With two games back under his belt (see what I did there?) after returning from the disabled list, I like him to take advantage of this opportunity. He’s got a .245 ISO and 47.1% hard-hit rate against righties. DeSclafani is one of the worst pitchers in baseball against lefties where he allows a 23.5% HR/FB on 46.5% fly balls and 42.6% hard contact. This has led to a ridiculous 3 HR/9 allowed to lefties this season. He throws a fastball, slider, and two-seam fastball. Belt has a .222 xISO against fastballs, a .237 xISO against sliders, and a .584 xISO against two-seam fastballs. As an added bonus, he’s a steal on FanDuel.  

Michael Brantley, CLE: OF (DK: $5.5K, FD: $4.3K)

Hess has just a 15.2% strikeout rate while allowing a .250 xISO to left-handed hitters this season. He gives up 16.7% HR/FB on 48.5% fly balls, which had led to a 2.43 HR/9. Brantley has a .188 ISO and a 44.3% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. Hess throws a fastball 63% of the time to left-handed hitters and Brantley has a .342 xISO against fastballs. Even if you don’t agree with Brantley, that’s fine, but get yourself some exposure to Cleveland today. They have a Coors Field-like implied total of 6.1 runs.

Ozzie Albies, ATL: 2B (DK: $4.3K, FD: $3.9K)

Freeland allows a .170 xISO against right-handed hitters. He throws a fastball 39.8% of the time and allows a .185 xISO. He throws a slider 21.3% of the time and allows a .188 xISO. Albies, a switch hitter, has a .221 ISO and 38.8% hard-hit rate against lefties. He also has a very low 13.5% strikeout rate to lefties, so the chances of him making contact are pretty good. He profiles well against Freeland’s pitch types with a .244 xISO against both sliders and fastballs this season.

Value Bats

Similar to the home run watch list, in this section, I’ll provide an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher who are priced in the value tier. If I can find someone under priced on both sites, I’ll highlight them. But in some cases, it could be site specific.

Kurt Suzuki OR Tyler Flowers ATL: C

Typically Flowers makes the lineup to face a lefty, but I’ve seen Suzuki play as well from time to time. Whoever makes the lineup is a great option as they both hit left-handed pitching well. Flowers has a .302 ISO and .562 wOBA while Suzuki has a .203 ISO and .342 wOBA. Freeland allows an average expected ISO (.170) and wOBA (.323) to lefties and his strikeouts decrease to just 17.3% against right-handed batters. Either Braves catcher should be able to return value on their cheap price tag today.

Tyler White, HOU: 1B ($3.5K, FD: $2.3K)

The price here feels like a mistake on DraftKings' part (he was already cheap on FanDuel to begin with.) In this last game, on August 15th, White was $4.2K and went 2 for 4 with two home runs and four runs batted in. He was part of the perfect lineup that night. After a performance like that, his price drops $700 to just $3.5K on DraftKings? Doesn’t make any sense to me but we’ll certainly take it. He gets a plus matchup today against Edwin Jackson who’s allowing a .192 xISO and .321 xwOBA to right-handed hitters.  

Brett Phillips, KC: OF (DK: $3.9K, FD: $2.4K)

Looking for some power upside for a cheap cost to round out that tournament lineup? Look no further than Brett Phillips. Let me be clear, this is boom or bust, there’s no floor here. He has solid power with a .200 ISO and 39.3% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching but he also strikes out 40.7% of the time. He’s basically a poor man’s Joey Gallo. You can’t play him in cash. On the plus side, he’s matched up with James Shields today, who has a low 17.6% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters, which should hopefully help Phillips make some contact.

Stacks on Stacks

For today, we’ll take off the top five teams in terms of implied total and look for stacks elsewhere. This means I’m excluding the Yankees, Red Sox, Indians, Rangers, and Angels. There is no line out yet on the Angels and Rangers as it looks like Texas has switched from their original starter to Drew Hutchinson. I’m anticipating that game, especially since it’s in Texas, will be the highest total of the day once the information comes out. For the record, the Indians should destroy David Hess and they are the top stack on the board.

Washington Nationals (vs. Dan Straily)

I love to target Marlins pitchers on the road. They play in such a massive ball park (28th in runs scored and 29th in home runs allowed) that they are able to get away with some mistakes that would be huge problems anywhere else. Today, Straily will be in trouble pitching in Washington, which is 7th this season in runs scored and 4th in home runs allowed. He’s giving up a .187 xISO and .371 xwOBA to lefties and a .270 xISO and .370 xwOBA to righties. Basically, this entire lineup is in play today. Soto (.226 ISO, .394 wOBA), Harper (.294 ISO, .384 wOBA), and Adams (.279 ISO, .379 wOBA) are the priorities as they bring a lot of power upside to the table. Murphy (.364 wOBA), Eaton (.353 wOBA), and Turner (.322 wOBA) are all fine options as well. I prefer Rendon against lefties, but he still has a .194 ISO and .351 wOBA against right-handed pitchers and, as you can see by the numbers, Straily is actually a little worse against righties than lefties. In addition to the expected ISO and wOBA, Straily also has a lower strikeout rate (19.4%) against right-handed hitters. This makes Rendon one of my favorite bats from this team. Washington is an insane -355 favorite, mainly because Mad Max is on the hill today, but they also have an implied run total of 5.1. There’s a good chance they go over looked with the Red Sox, Yankees, Indians, Angels and Rangers all having higher implied totals. 

San Francisco Giants (vs. Anthony DeSclafani)

I haven’t stacked the Giants all season. In fact, I don’t think I’ve had much exposure to Giants players at all. This is a great spot for them, however, with the big-time park shift and facing a terrible pitcher. I’m particularly interested in the left-handed batters. DeSclafani allows a .289 xISO, .372 xwOBA, and 42.6% hard contact. He has just a 4.82 xFIP with below average strikeouts and has given up 3 HR/9 to left-handed batters. This puts Belt in a prime spot, hence why I made him one of my home run calls today. He has a .245 ISO, .395 wOBA, and 47.1% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. Alen Hanson is next with a .231 ISO and .362 wOBA. Brandon Crawford is better against lefties than righties but still has a .325 wOBA and 37.3% hard-hit rate. Joe Panik has a slightly below average .318 wOBA but also 33% hard-hits and a very low 7.7% strikeout rate. DeSclafani is better against righties but that doesn’t mean we need to shy away from him. He’s still giving up 12.9% HR/FB on 33.3% fly balls with 44.8% hard contact. I have interest in McCutchen (.329 wOBA), Hernandez (.320 wOBA), Posey (34.1% hard-hits), and Slater 38.9% hard-hits. Bottom line, this Giants lineup is ugly, but there are some usable pieces here and this is about as good a spot as you will get for them all season. My assumption is that most people will stay away when they start to look at the players and the numbers and dismiss the matchup and the park shift. The Giants opened with a 4.3 implied total and that’s already on the rise and is currently at 4.7 runs. They should be a great under the radar stack today.

Cincinnati Reds (vs. Casey Kelly)

Fun Fact: Casey Kelly is the son of Reds bench coach Pat Kelly. This has absolutely no impact on us as DFS players but a little father/son rivalry is always a good time. Unfortunately, for the son, this is not a great spot for him to make his first start since May of 2016. I pulled his career numbers to give us a big enough sample size to draw conclusions and the result of that is he’s not very good. He has a 4.69 xFIP, 12.3% strikeouts, and a 1.72 WHIP to lefties. Against righties, he has a 4.84 xFIP, with 14.5% strikeouts, and a 1.62 WHIP. He gets a descent amount of groundballs (51.8% to lefties and 49.2% to righties) and allows slightly above average contact. In Triple-A this season, he’s 10-9 with an ugly 4.78 ERA, 18.4% strikeouts, and a 1.42 WHIP. His xFIP is only slightly better than his ERA at 4.71, which is really bad when you consider he’s facing minor league competition. The Reds, even with all their injuries, should have a big game today. Eugenio Suarez is my favorite option on this team with his .237 ISO and .358 wOBA against right-handed pitching. Scooter Gennett has a .180 ISO and .371 wOBA. Joey Votto has a .396 wOBA and 39% hard-hit rate. Those three are the priorities. I also have interest in Preston Tucker who has a .192 ISO and .343 wOBA. If Dilson Herrera plays, he could be sneaky. Small sample size (22 at-bats) but he has a .273 ISO and .331 wOBA. He has a .160 ISO and .370 wOBA in Triple-A this season. Jose Peraza has hit safely in eight of his last nine games including three multi-hit games. Similar to their opponent tonight, the Reds implied total has dramatically increased since it opened at 4.3 runs. It’s currently sitting at 4.9 runs. That’s the largest increase of any team so far.  

The Bullpen Report

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @glandry if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@GP_Landry). Don't forget to sign up for today's freeroll! 

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