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Written by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GP_Landry on Twitter

Honestly, you have two strategies you can follow when approaching this slate tonight. First, focus on your bats and then whatever you have leftover for salary just plug in a pitcher you can afford in that range. There’s not a single pitcher on this slate with any safety, so there is no need to build around anyone in particular. Option two, the one I recommend, TAKE THE NIGHT OFF. At the very least, seriously reduce the bankroll you put in play tonight. This is, in my opinion, the worst slate we’ve had all season. Clay Buchholz is your most expensive pitcher and there are a couple of guys on here who I’d never even heard of before today. I get the need to want to play every night (degenerates unite!) so if you go that route, just be smart about it. There’s a couple of spots with rain threats including in Kansas City and Pittsburgh. It’s also over 90 degrees in St. Louis, Texas, and Kansas City, so give a boost to the bats in those games. This will be a relatively quick article. There's just not a lot to talk about here but I'll do my best to sort through the numbers and provide some insight.

High Priced Pitching

Clay Buchholz, ARI (@SD) (DK: $9.5K, FD: $8.5K)

We’ll start at the top of the price list today. I cannot believe that Clay Buchholz is the most expensive pitcher on this slate. What a time to be alive. Surprisingly, he’s holding his own this season. His 2.67 ERA is very impressive although it won’t last judging by his 4.12 SIERA. Still, a SIERA of just over four on this slate is nothing to scoff at. He has 20.9% strikeouts including 10.1% swinging strikes. The WHIP is fine at 1.14 with an 82.6% LOB%. He’s shown some consistency this season as well. He’s gone at least five innings in every start except one this year. He’s also flashed some upside occasionally with four games of seven strikeouts or more in his eleven starts. He’s only allowed over three earned runs once all season (that also happened to be the only game he went less than five innings). It’s really easy to forget that this guy once started the All-Star game for the American League and threw a no-hitter in his prime. He’s nothing close to that now, but there’s enough in his game log this season to show he can still bring the heat once in a while. On a normal slate, this would be a long shot GPP flyer type of play. On this slate, relative to all the other players we have available, my confidence is high enough that we can consider him in cash games (if you’re playing them tonight.) I’m assuming he’ll be popular as the matchup is the most appealing part about him. San Diego is the second worst team in baseball against right-handed pitching. They have a 25.7% strikeout rate (by far the highest on this slate) with only a .127 ISO, .289 wOBA, and 82 wRC+. Arizona opened as -127 favorites and that has grown to -143 and the Padres implied total is the lowest on the main slate at 3.7 runs.

Jon Gray, COL (@ATL) (DK: $8.7K, FD: $9.1K)

Since returning from his time at Triple-A, Gray has been extremely good. He’s 2-0 in five starts with a 3.72 xFIP. He’s gone seven innings or more in four of those five starts. The downside is the strikeout rate has started to decrease. He has 29 strikeouts in 35.1 innings since he returned to the rotation. That’s a lot different from the 27.1% strikeout rate and 13.6% swinging strike rate he has on the season. Whether or not that will continue is hard to say, but I wouldn’t count on the really high ceiling that we’ve been used to with him in the past. His recent results suggest this is more of a floor play. The strikeout rate will decrease even more considering the matchup as the Braves only strikeout 20.4% of the time. The Braves are, however, much better against left-handed pitchers than they are against right-handed pitchers, so that should help Gray out. Atlanta has a .158 ISO, .318 wOBA, and 98 wRC+ against righties compared to a .193 ISO, .341 wOBA, and 113 wRC+ against lefties. Plus, after the incident last night, I expect Acuna to miss tonight’s game (he’s currently listed as day-to-day). Acuna is arguably their best hitter against righties with a .293 ISO and .405 wOBA so missing him will create a large hole that will further help Gray navigate this lineup. In the past month, Gray has allowed 68 batted balls, of which 52.9% have been groundballs though he has allowed an above average 32.4% hard contact rate. The Rockies are currently -117 favorites and it seems to be growing with the news of Acuna potentially missing. Gray definitely looks to have the advantage today.

Value Pitching

Sam Gaviglio, TOR (@KC) (DK: $6.8K, FD: $7.2K)

Gaviglio is a roller coaster ride. We never know which guy is going to show up. But on a slate like this, everyone else is basically in the same boat, so I’m really not looking for floor plays. His last two starts were a bit more encouraging and he showed a solid ceiling as well. He went 5.2 innings against Seattle, allowing just three earned runs and getting seven strikeouts. Then he followed that up going 5.1 innings, allowing just one earned run and getting another seven strikeouts. He has multiple games with seven or more innings and seven or more strikeouts on the season. He also has multiple games with four or less innings or two or less strikeouts. I realize most of this information is based on very small sample sizes but I’m trying to find potential upside through the sea of less than ideal options today. On the season, he has a respectable 4.02 SIERA with 22% strikeouts. He’s solid against righties, allowing only a .167 xISO and .327 xwOBA but he struggles with lefties giving up a .234 xISO and .359 xwOBA. That actually works out well today since the few threats in the Royals lineup are more right-handed than left-handed. It’s a great matchup against the Royals who have an abysmal .135 ISO, .295 wOBA, and 83 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Gaviglio and the Blue Jays are solid -129 favorites. The Royals implied total is 4.5 runs, which is much higher than I’d typically want to see when rostering a pitcher, but that’s just how this slate breaks out. Don’t be surprised if he gives up some runs, but he should be able to back it up with enough innings, strikeouts, and the win to give you a good enough fantasy outing.

Francisco Liriano, DET (@MIN) (DK: $5.8K, FD: $5.8K)

I’m officially sick to my stomach that this is a recommendation of mine today. Liriano is awful. A 5.24 SIERA and a 1.45 WHIP support that theory. He only has 18.5% strikeouts (though he does have 10.5% swinging strikes) plus a 13.4% walk rate. So why do I have interest you ask? It’s because the Twins suck against left-handed pitching. They are one of the more left-handed heavy teams in baseball and that is one place where Liriano can stand his ground. He has a 3.97 xFIP with 23.1% strikeouts and just an 0.84 WHIP against lefties. The Twins, on the other hand, have a .131 ISO, .285 wOBA, and a 76 wRC+ against lefties. They also strikeout 23.7% of the time. To put this in perspective, that’s the second highest strikeout rate, the third worst ISO, the worst wOBA, and the worst wRC+ on this slate today. They are legitimately the only team in baseball that I would consider rostering Liriano against (okay, maybe the Mets too). Left-handed hitters have a slightly above average .186 xISO but a low .308 xwOBA against him. He just faced the Twins in his last start and went five innings while allowing just three earned runs. But he had more walks (four) than strikeouts (three). Hopefully he can get those numbers turned around today. In the last month, he’s allowed 51 batted balls, of which 52.9% have been groundballs, only 15.7% have been hard contact, and 27.5% have been soft contact. That’s a really impressive hard to soft contact ratio. This has resulted in a low average exit velocity of 84.9 mph and an average distance of just 180.7 feet. Vegas does not agree with me on this take. The Tigers are underdogs and the Twins have one of the higher implied totals on the board. However, if there were ever a slate to take a stand against Vegas, this would be it. I think Santana and the Twins may be popular today, so this is likely where I’m going to plant my flag in order to be contrarian, and hope it works out.

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

If you’re new to the article, this is the section where I pick an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher to hit a long ball today. If there's a game at Coors Field, I always exclude them from this list because it's too obvious. So just keep that in mind. Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential.

Kole Calhoun, LAA: OF

Huge park upgrade for the Angels going from Angel Stadium to Globe Life Park in the middle of the summer. Jurado allows a .218 xISO and 88.7 mph average exit velocity to left-handed hitters. He throws his two-seam fastball 65% of the time to lefties. Calhoun has a .209 ISO and 41.9% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. He also crushes two-seam fastballs with a .349 xISO.

Anthony Rizzo, CHC: 1B

Rizzo has a .207 ISO and 35.6% hard-hit rate against righties and Nova struggles a ton with left-handed bats. He has just an 11.4% strikeout rate while allowing 33.5% hard contact and 1.65 HR/9. Lefties have a .269 xISO against him this season. He throws a two-seam fastball, fastball, and a changeup. Rizzo has a .220 xISO against fastballs, a .240 xISO against two-seam fastballs, and a .294 xISO against changeups.

Daniel Murphy, WAS: 2B

Home run calls from a middle infield position are not pretty today but Murphy appears to be our best bet. Weaver allows a .198 xISO against lefties including 14.9% HR/FB on 34% fly balls with 34% hard contact. Murphy’s power is starting to align more toward his career average. He has a .156 ISO this season and a .171 ISO in his career against right-handed pitching. He also hit a home run last night. Weaver throws his fastball 56% of the time against left-handed hitters and Murphy has a .228 xISO against fastballs.

Value Bats

Similar to the home run watch list, in this section, I’ll provide an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher who are priced in the value tier. If I can find someone under priced on both sites, I’ll highlight them. But in some cases, it could be site specific.

Kendrys Morales, TOR: 1B

We’ll get into this more shortly, but Sparkman is a bullpen arm who hasn’t pitched more than four innings in any game this season. Last time I checked, a bullpen game when you have the worst bullpen in baseball is not the brightest idea. Morales has a .192 ISO, .340 wOBA, and 46% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. Sparkman throws a fastball 65% of the time and a slider another 13% of the time. Morales smashes fastballs with a .434 xISO and he hits sliders very well with a .325 xISO.

Freddy Galvis, SDP: SS

Prior to a 0 for 4 night last night, Galvis had been on a streak of three consecutive games with a home run. In the month of August, he has a .374 wOBA and .347 ISO with five home runs, nine runs scored, eleven runs batted in, and even a couple of stolen bases. The floor here is non-existent, and I prefer him against lefties instead of righties, but he definitely has some momentum at the moment. Chances are, you won’t need to dip this low today considering how cheap pitching is, but you could definitely do worse for a punt option at the middle infield positions.

Franmil Reyes, SDP: OF

For like the 100th time this week Reyes is still a bargain on DraftKings. He’s gone a little cold over this last five games and he’s slid from the cleanup spot to the bottom of the order, but no guarantee that it stays that way. Despite the recent results, there’s some power to work with. I prefer him against lefties, which he crushes, but he still has a .216 ISO and 37.9% hard-hit rate against righties. I like Buchholz as a pitching option tonight but he’s far from a sure thing, so I wouldn’t hesitate to roster bats against him if you need them.

Stacks on Stacks

Looks like the Rangers may be the chalk stack of the evening with their 5.7 implied total. There's a lot of bad pitchers on the hill tonight so I'm not sure any single team gets crazy ownership.

Toronto Blue Jays (vs. Glenn Sparkman)

Yup, never heard of this guy. He’s 7-3 with a 3.96 ERA in 16 starts between Double-A and Triple-A this year. While the win/loss record may be good, the rest of his numbers are not. He has a 4.91 xFIP (against Triple-A lineups) with only 14.9% strikeouts and a 1.40 WHIP. He’s been used in the majors as a bullpen arm and hasn’t pitched more than four innings in a game since the beginning of July. I can’t imagine he goes more than 4-5 innings, so this is really going to be a bullpen game from the league’s worst bullpen. Grichuk (.256 ISO, .330 wOBA), Smoak (.256 ISO, .382 wOBA), and Hernandez (.221 ISO, .332 wOBA) would be the priorities. After them, you can mix in Granderson (.193 ISO, .336 wOBA), Diaz (.193 ISO, .323 wOBA), and Morales (.192 ISO, .340 wOBA). If Kevin Pillar is in the lineup, he’s been solid since returning from the disabled list at the beginning of August. He has a .328 wOBA, and .200 ISO including two home runs, seven runs scored, and nine runs batted in in only twelve games. Russell Martin is quietly having a good August as well. He’s 10 for 38 with two home runs, six runs scored, and five runs batted in. He has a .467 wOBA and .241 ISO with a low 18.4% strikeout rate and a high 15.8% walk rate. Don’t forget Danny Jansen if he makes the lineup tonight. He had the night off yesterday but he’s off to a good start in his MLB career. He’s gone 3 for 7 with a home run in his first two major league games. With so many bad pitchers on the hill, it’s hard to know for sure who (if anyone) will be chalk tonight. With their 5.1 implied run total, it’s entirely possible that this is the highest owned offense, so just keep that in mind for tournament strategy.

Los Angeles Angels (vs. Ariel Jurado)

This Angels lineup is pretty horrible at this point in the season. Trout is out for the time being and there’s no need to rush him back with the Angels out of the playoff hunt. It can be hard to know when Shohei Ohtani is playing or not playing. Albert Pujols isn’t getting any younger. The list goes on and on. Still, there’s a chance that because everyone else sees this ugly lineup, they will choose not to play the Angels as well, and that’s what has me intrigued. They get a big park upgrade today, going from Angels Stadium, which is 14th this season in runs allowed to Globe Life Park, which is first. They will face off with Ariel Jurdado who is somehow on a Major League roster right now. He has a 5.49 SIERA with just 9.2% strikeouts and a 4.7% swinging strike rate. I’ve never seen a swinging strike rate that low before. He also has 9.2% walks, equal to his strikeout rate, and a 1.40 WHIP. He allows a .218 xISO and .403 xwOBA to lefties and a .269 xISO and .396 xwOBA to righties. All of this with a BABIP of only .242, which indicates he’s actually been lucky up to this point. Imagine having a 5.49 SIERA and being lucky. I’d have interest in the Angels tonight if they were rolling out their entire Triple-A affiliate. Kole Calhoun is one of my favorite bats on this slate. I put him on the home run watch list tonight and he profiles very well with Jurado’s pitch types. If Ohtani plays, he would also be a favorite bat of mine with his .318 ISO and .419 wOBA. Francisco Arcia continues to rake at the major league level. He’s now 11 for 35 with a .416 wOBA and .324 ISO with three home runs, seven runs scored, and 13 runs batted in. If Arcia doesn’t crack the lineup then it will be Rene Rivera who returned from the disabled list yesterday to go 2 for 4 with a home run in his first game since May 16th. Justin Upton is smashing right-handed pitching this season with a .243 ISO and .380 wOBA against right-handed pitching. Eric Young Jr. has flashed his upside. It’s only a 25 at-bat sample size, but he has a .240 ISO and .352 wOBA. Simmons and Pujols are both interesting fade candidates from this stack. Simmons has a fine .327 wOBA but no power and Pujols has only a .164 ISO and .313 wOBA this season. I think I’d rather take my chances with some of these younger guys at this point.

Colorado Rockies (vs. Julio Teheran)

I know I’ve been preaching for the last couple of days about how the Rockies are much worse on the road than they are at home, but I still like this spot for them today. They aren’t facing Verlander or Cole, this is Julio Teheran. I think it’s very possible, on a slate like this, that he becomes chalk or at least gets close to it. I want nothing to do with Teheran chalk night. In fact, I want to bet against it. He does have some strikeout upside, so I understand why people are interested. But he hasn’t had a double digit strikeout game since July 4th. He actually hasn’t had more than six strikeouts in any start since July 4th. Left-handed hitters have a .217 xISO and .371 xwOBA against him while right-handed hitters have a .204 xISO and .324 xwOBA. He’s allowing 41.5% fly balls, with an ugly 15.6% HR/FB rate and 38.8% hard contact. I’ll prioritize the lefties based on these numbers. David Dahl has a .241 ISO and .390 wOBA in 83 at-bats against righties this season. Blackmon has a .226 ISO and .354 wOBA, Gonzalez has a .213 ISO and .358 wOBA. They are the core of a stack here. I prefer Story and Arenado against lefties but that doesn’t mean we can’t use them here. Story has a .236 ISO and .358 wOBA while Arenado has a .204 ISO and .344 wOBA. You also have a couple of fringe pieces you can consider as well such as Desmond (.174 ISO), Iannetta (.194 ISO), and Parra (.347 wOBA) but I’m not going out of my way to fit any of those guys in. Colorado should be very sneaky tonight but their implied run total is on the rise. It opened at 4.2 runs and it’s up to 4.4 runs this morning.

The Bullpen Report

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