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Written by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GP_Landry on Twitter

What’s going on everyone? I hope the week is treating you well so far. If you’ve invested any kind of money in the Cleveland Indians the past couple of days then, chances are, the week has been very good to you. Today, we get a ten-game slate. Pitching is a bit complicated but we’ll try to sort through it. Initially, I was having a hard time justifying Zack Wheeler’s price tag but he’s growing on me the more I look at other options in that general price range. Value-pitching is pretty ugly but I think there’s one option we can consider if we are looking to pay way down. We’ve got four teams with implied totals over five runs and several other teams on the rise. Finding offense won’t be an issue on this slate with all the poor pitching. The forecast looks clear. No rain threats, as of now, no winds, and some hot weather in Baltimore, Philadelphia, and New York.  

High Priced Pitching

Gerrit Cole, HOU (vs. COL) (DK: $12.2K, FD: $10.4K)

Well, if he can get it done in Coors Field, we have to believe he can get it done at home right? Cole recently faced Colorado on July 24th in Denver and went 6.1 innings, allowing five hits, just two earned runs, and collecting nine strikeouts. We talked in detail yesterday about Colorado’s home/away splits and how targeting them with pitching when they are on the road can generally lead to good results. That theory held true last night, as Verlander pitched a gem, going six innings, allowing just two earned runs, and striking out eleven. Unfortunately, his bullpen blew it for him in the end. In case you missed yesterday’s article, I’ll do a quick recap. First of all, what the hell? Don’t you live to read my newsletters? Just kidding. If you did, I’d be worried about you. When on the road, the Rockies' numbers drop to a .161 ISO, .299 wOBA, and 84 wRC+. They also strikeout 24.1% of the time compared to 23.2% when at home. This gives Cole an additional boost that he really doesn’t need to begin with. In 24 starts this season, Cole has never gone less than five innings, he’s never had less than five strikeouts, and he’s never given up more than four earned runs (and that’s only happened four times). The floor is rock solid here. As far as ceiling goes, he has a 39.8% strikeout rate, 16.7% swinging strikes, and a 0.98 WHIP against lefties. He has a 28.9% strikeout rate, 13.1% swinging strikes, and a 1.00 WHIP against righties. He’s a -194 favorite and the Rockies implied total is only 3.1 runs. He makes for a great option in both cash games and tournaments tonight.

Zack Wheeler, NYM (@BAL) ($10.8K, FD: $10K)

I never thought I’d be willing to pay this kind of money for Zack Wheeler. I remember struggling to make a case for him as a sleeper when he was in the $7K range. Even tonight, I’ve tried to talk myself out of him. I looked at the other options and I keep coming back to Wheeler being worth the money tonight. Eovaldi is tempting. He’s coming off a rough start his last time out, which slowed down his skyrocketing price and will probably drive some ownership away. But he struggles against left-handed hitters with his 4.31 xFIP and a low 18.7% strikeout rate. He gives up a .210 xISO and .339 xwOBA. He’ll see a lot of left-handed bats in that Philadelphia lineup today in a very bad park for pitchers. I’m staying away. I also considered Gausman, who is up near that price range as well, but I’m having a hard time spending $8.7K for a guy that was $6.8K in his last start. Don’t get me wrong, he was outstanding in that start but a $1900 price hike for someone who had lost three of his last four previous starts and hadn’t had more than five strikeouts in over a month just isn’t convincing enough to me. So I keep coming back to Wheeler. It’s really hard to argue with the results. He’s gone seven innings in six of his last ten starts and had at least seven strikeouts in eight of those ten starts. He hasn’t lost a start since June 22nd and he’s currently on a streak of five wins in a row. Before he got on this hot streak, he faced Baltimore back on June 6th and went seven innings, allowing just three hits, zero earned runs, and picking up five strikeouts. Today, he’ll face Baltimore again, though this time a very watered down version. Taking all this information into account, paying his salary today suddenly doesn’t seem too crazy after all. One potential negative I’ll point out is the reverse line movement currently happening. Wheeler opened as a -133 favorite and he’s down to -106 at the moment. Because of this, I can only suggest Wheeler in tournaments. I don’t completely agree with the movement in Vegas (unless they know something that we don’t, which is entirely possible) but it’s enough to make me concerned about the safety here. The upside, however, is still there.

Value Pitching

Shane Bieber, CLE (@CIN) (DK: $8.3K, FD: $7.9K)

Bieber’s very impressive rookie campaign continues with a date against the Reds today. He’s 6-2 in eleven starts with 66 strikeouts to only 13 walks in 63.2 innings of work. He’s had six strikeouts or more in eight of his eleven starts. The big concern with Bieber is always the left-handed hitters, and that concern is increased today considering the ballpark he has to pitch in. But the Reds are only a shell of what they were earlier this season. They’ve got no Winkler, no Schebler, and Votto is basically on one good leg these days with his recurring knee soreness. They’ve filled in the lineup with younger, more strikeout prone prospects looking to get some experience and maybe a shot at regular playing time next season. Bieber is also pitching a lot better against lefties than what the surface numbers indicate and positive regression will continue to come his way. His 4.03 xFIP is over a run lower than his ERA and the BABIP is incredibly high at .396. The run prevention will continue to improve and his ugly 46.3% hard contact rate should fall. In the meantime, he still has a ton of upside with his 26.5% strikeout rate and 11% swinging strike rate. As far as right-handed bats go, Bieber is deadly. He has a 2.94 xFIP with 21.6% strikeouts and 14.5% swinging strikes. He’s got a ridiculous 1.6% walk rate while forcing 56.3% groundballs. I hate using pitchers in this park….like really hate it. But I don’t have a lot of confidence in any particular pitcher in the lower tiers today. Bieber has the highest ceiling of anyone priced below $9K and he’s a comfortable -174 favorite. With the Reds having an implied total of just four, I love him for tournaments as an SP2 or on FanDuel.

Robbie Erlin, SD (vs. LAA) (DK: $4.9K, FD: $6.3K)

If I’m paying down today, this is where I’m going. It’s a bit sketchy but there are also a lot of positives, especially at this price point. Since he mainly pitches out of the bullpen, we don’t have much of an innings sample for him. I ended up pulling the last three seasons worth to give us enough to work with. Honestly, the numbers are solid and I am surprised. He has a 3.31 SIERA, 21.5% strikeout rate, and a 0.98 WHIP. He gets nearly 50% groundballs and allows an average 30.7% hard contact rate. The splits are really good as well. He’s got a 2.89 xFIP, 24.3% strikeouts, and only 4.9% walks against lefties. The WHIP is fantastic at 1.10 and he forces 62% groundballs. Against righties, the xFIP increases but it’s still a comfortable 3.53 xFIP with 20.3% strikeouts and only 2.7% walks. The WHIP to righties is even better at just 0.93, and while the groundball rate decreases to 43.8%, the hard contact allowed also decreases to an impressive 25.7%. I have to admit, the super low walk rate, the low WHIP, and only allowing 25.7% hard contact to righties; there’s a lot to like here, especially when he’ll be facing a right-handed heavy Angels team that’s missing Mike Trout. Opposing right-handed bats have an average .170 xISO and a below average .282 xwOBA against him this season. Lefties have a slightly higher .187 xISO but a below average .304 xwOBA. The downside here is he doesn’t pitch deep into games. He’s never gone more than five innings in any of his starts this season. It’s possible, now that he’s in the rotation and his last two appearances have been starts, they’ll let him go a bit longer (as opposed to a pitcher who switches back and forth between starter and bullpen) but that’s just pure speculation on my part. For now, we can’t count on any more than five innings from him. I think you can still justify using him given how inexpensive he is, but just know it increases the risk. He’s a slight -111 favorite and the Angels have only a 4.1 implied run total. You are rostering him for the floor, in cash or tournaments, and hoping that the salary you save will help you increase your team’s upside elsewhere.

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

If you’re new to the article, this is the section where I pick an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher to hit a long ball today. If there's a game at Coors Field, I always exclude them from this list because it's too obvious. So just keep that in mind. Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential.

Anthony Rendon, WAS: 3B (DK: $4.5K, FD: $3.9K)

Gomber really struggles with righties including a low 18.8% strikeout rate, a high 15% walk rate, and a very high 40.4% hard contact rate. Opposing right-handed hitters have a .259 xISO against him. Rendon, meanwhile, has a .267 ISO and 45.1% hard-hit rate against left-handed pitching. He also has a .253 xISO against fastballs, which Gomber throws over 50% of the time.  

Brandon Nimmo, NYM: OF (DK: $5.4K, FD: $3.5K)

Nimmo gets to face our favorite punching bag for home runs tonight. Bundy has given up a league worst 29 home runs and is allowing a .283 xISO to left-handed batters. Nimmo and the Mets get a big park upgrade tonight going from Citi Field, which is 26th in home runs, to Camden Yards, which is 5th in home runs. He has an impressive .256 ISO and 43.6% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. He also has a .235 xISO against fastballs, which Bundy throws 50% of the time to lefties. 

Manny Machado, LAD: SS (DK: $4.2K, FD: $3.8K)

I like the Dodgers quite a bit as a whole in this spot tonight, but Machado in particular is standing out. Holland is allowing a .241 xISO and 46% hard contact against right-handed batters. Machado has a .208 ISO and 37.4% hard-hit rate against lefties. Holland is a sinker, slider pitcher along with the occasional knuckle curve. Machado is strong against each pitch type with his .307 xISO and 94.2 mph average exit velocity against sinkers, his .260 xISO against sliders, and his .196 xISO with a 93.6 mph average exit velocity against knuckle curves.  

Value Bats

Similar to the home run watch list, in this section, I’ll provide an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher who are priced in the value tier. If I can find someone under priced on both sites, I’ll highlight them. But in some cases, it could be site specific.

Brock Holt, BOS (2B/SS) (DK: $3.5K, FD: $2.4K)

Holt is thriving in his regular playing time with Kinsler and Pedroia both on the shelf for the Red Sox right now. He’s had six straight games with a hit, including two home runs, five runs scored, and six runs batted in during that stretch. It’s a tough matchup today with Vince Velasquez, but he does struggle with left-handed hitters. He has 10.2% walks, 42.9% fly balls, 14.9% HR/FB, and 35% hard contact against them this season.  

Ender Inciarte, ATL: OF (DK: $4.2K, FD: $2.5K)

Another massive price difference between the two sites that makes Inciarte a steal (hopefully he does steal) tonight on FanDuel. Urena struggles with left-handed hitters allowing 45% hard contact, a .210 xISO, and a .356 xwOBA. Inciarte doesn’t have great numbers in general but there are a few things to like about him today. First, he’s on a mini hot streak with three consecutive games with at least one hit including a double and a triple in yesterday’s game. Second, he always has the stolen base upside when he gets on. Third, he’s 7 for 20 with a home run and a 1.031 OPS against Urena in his career.  

Austin Slater, SF: 1B/OF (DK: $3.4K, FD: $2.2K)

San Francisco represents some sneaky value on both sites today, especially DraftKings where value, particularly at the corner infield positions, is seriously lacking. If forced to choose someone though, I’d go with Slater who I actually didn’t realize had first base eligibility. He has a solid .364 wOBA and 45.5% hard-hit rate against left-handed pitching. Ryu is coming off a long stint on the disabled list, and before he got injured, he was allowing a 41.5% hard contact rate to right-handed batters.  

Stacks on Stacks

It looks like the Yankees, Indians, and Braves are likely going to be chalk today with their very high implied totals. I like all those teams and have no issues with stacking them if that's where you want to go. Cleveland has made a lot of people money the last two days. Here are a few under the radar stacks you can consider as well.

New York Mets (vs. Dylan Bundy)

How bad at pitching do you have to be for me to want to stack the New York Mets? Dylan Bundy bad. At first glance, I admit, Bundy struck me as a possible pitching option. For all the weaknesses on his resume, he has a ton of strikeout upside and he’s very inexpensive. But then it hit me, he might actually be a popular option today and I want nothing to do with chalk Dylan Bundy. So I guess we are stacking the Mets! The numbers aren’t pretty but there are a few usable pieces we can use in a stack today. Brandon Nimmo is on the home run watch list with his .256 ISO and .388 wOBA. Wilmer Flores has a .209 ISO and .350 wOBA. Jeff McNeil isn’t hitting for much power but he has a solid .350 wOBA in 50 at-bats since joining the team. Conforto is on a bit of a hot streak right now with a five game hit streak, at least one hit in nine of his last ten games, and two games in a row with a home run. Jose Bautista continues to hold his own with a .170 ISO and .331 wOBA. Finally, Todd Frazier’s numbers are down this season but he has a career .196 ISO and .330 wOBA. Like I said, not the best numbers but there’s more here than I thought there would be. Plus, they will all get a boost today. Bundy allows a .283 xISO and .401 xwOBA to lefties and a .208 xISO to righties. He’s given up 29 home runs this season, the most in the league and three more than the next closest pitcher. They will be very sneaky today and possibly even offer some leverage on the field if people decide to go after Bundy’s strikeout upside.  

Toronto Blue Jays (vs. Burch Smith)

The question here is will Toronto become chalk? They don’t typically strike me as a very popular team to stack (which is one of the reasons I like them so much) but today might be a different story. Originally, Burch Smith was supposed to be the starter, but apparently he’s been demoted to the bullpen and instead Jorge Lopez will start today. Lopez was a relief pitcher in Milwaukee and came to Kansas City as part of the trade for Mike Moustakas. He’s been working as a starter in Triple-A since the trade and it hasn’t gone all that well. He also hasn’t gone past five innings yet, so I’m assuming he’ll get an early hook. This will open the door for some at-bats for Toronto against the worst bullpen in baseball. Justin Smoak stands out with a .259 ISO and .382 wOBA when batting from the left-side of the plate. Morales also has more power as a lefty with his .193 ISO and .337 wOBA. Granderson will bat leadoff against the right-handed pitcher. He has a .187 ISO and .333 wOBA. Grichuk prefers to hit righties instead of lefties. He has a .261 ISO and .332 wOBA. These guys are my priority, especially on FanDuel where you can roster Morales and Smoak together. I also like Teoscar Hernandez, although I prefer him against lefties, he’s got a solid .224 ISO and .333 wOBA against right-handed pitching. Last but not least, Aledmys Diaz is also in a good spot with his .199 ISO and .328 wOBA. Toronto should have a field day in this spot and Vegas clearly agrees. The Blue Jays opened with an implied total of 4.9 that has already increased to 5.2.  

Los Angeles Dodgers (vs. Derek Holland)

Holland has been pitching well lately and the Dodgers are significantly worse against left-handed pitching than they are against right-handed pitching. But with the addition of Dozier and Machado, they are starting to improve. Plus, Justin Turner is finding his groove just in time for the playoffs. He’s on an eight game hitting streak. He has hits in eleven of his last twelve games. Five of those games have been multi-hit games. Holland allows a .241 xISO, .362 xwOBA, and 46% hard contact to right-handed hitters. Matt Kemp has a .278 ISO and .366 wOBA. The aforementioned Turner is up to a .238 ISO and .452 wOBA. Manny Machado is one of my home run recommendations today and I went into detail about why earlier in the article. Matt Kemp (.271 ISO, .360 wOBA), Chris Taylor (.188 ISO), Enrique Hernandez (.179 ISO), and Max Muncy (.263 ISO, .391 wOBA) are all in play. Brian Dozier has been solid since joining the Dodgers. He has a .399 wOBA and .279 ISO with only 13.2% strikeouts since the beginning of August. The Dodgers should fly well under the radar tonight despite a healthy implied run total of 4.7.    

The Bullpen Report

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @glandry if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@GP_Landry). Don't forget to sign up for today's freeroll! 

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