Top MLB Plays 8/14 | Can Ronald Acuna Keep This Up?

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One of the top bats on the board today....

We've got a 14-game slate to discuss today. Pitching is a bit interesting as there are several options in the top and mid-tier that I like but very little in the value-tier that I have interest in. It's going to make it a little difficult to pay up for any bats today. We have four teams with an implied run total over five and then several other teams just below five runs so, it shouldn't be too difficult to find high upside bats in different price-tiers to help us fill out our lineups. As far as the weather goes, Kansas City and St. Louis both look like possible trouble spots for rain but I don't think it's going to be too serious and it's still way too early to tell. Just something worth keeping an eye on. I'm going to keep the introduction short today, so let's get to work on this slate!

High Priced Pitching

Justin Verlander, HOU (vs. COL) (DK: $12.6K, FD: $11.2K)

We are going to get a heavy dose of angry Verlander tonight. He got shelled his last time out and then was eventually thrown out of the game for arguing with the umpire. I’m not about to let one bad game cloud my judgement. If anything, he should be fired up for tonight’s game. I hope, however, it scares other people away from using him (I doubt it but we can hope). Prior to that game, Verlander had five double-digit strikeouts in his last ten games including an impressive 14 strikeout game against a tough Dodgers lineup. He had a 2.67 xFIP with 91 strikeouts to only eight walks in 63 innings of work during that span. That bad game was just an outlier at this point. There’s nothing that suggests we’ll continue to see poor performances like that in the future. Today, he gets a matchup with Colorado. We know they have some power, but we also know their numbers are inflated because they play their home games at Coors Field. When on the road, the Rockies numbers drop to a .161 ISO, .299 wOBA, and 84 wRC+. They also strikeout 24.1% of the time compared to 23.2% when at home. For comparison sake, that would give them the sixth lowest wOBA on the slate today and the fourth highest strikeout rate. As far as his season numbers are concerned Verlander has the highest strikeout rate on the slate at 33.3% and he’s tied with James Paxton for the second highest swinging strike rate at 13.8%. He’s only walking 4.5% of the batters he faces, the WHIP is outstanding at 0.91, and the LOB% is excellent at 86.5%. The splits between left-handed and right-handed batters are solid as well. Against lefties, he has a 3.05 xFIP and 36.8% strikeouts and against righties he has a 3.44 xFIP with 30.4% strikeouts. Verlander and the Astros opened as -196 favorites and the Rockies have the lowest implied total on the board with just three runs. He’s my preferred cash game target tonight and he’s absolutely in play for tournaments with the high strikeout upside.

James Paxton, SEA (@OAK) (DK: $11.1K, FD: $9.8K)

You only need to know one thing to understand why I have interest in Paxton today. The last time he faced Oakland, back on May 2nd, he went seven innings, allowing five hits, zero earned runs, and had 16 strikeouts. I’ll say it again. 16 strikeouts! There are plenty of other reasons to like Paxton, obviously, but the history stands out above the rest. Similar to Verlander, he got roughed up a little in his last start against the Astros, lasting only 5.2 innings and allowing seven hits, four earned runs, and three walks. I’m going to chalk this one up as an outlier as well. He had just pitched against Houston only ten days prior to that start and the batters always have the advantage when they see a pitcher more than once in a short time frame. There is nothing in his numbers that would suggest possible regression. In fact, it’s the opposite. His 3.04 SIERA is lower than his 3.63 ERA and the BABIP is .299 which is basically the league average. He has one of the highest ceilings of any pitcher in baseball with a 31.4% strikeout rate and 13.8% swinging strike rate. Against left-handed batters, he has a 2.16 xFIP with 34% strikeouts and he gets 46.7% groundballs. Against right-handed batters, he has a 3.26 xFIP with 30.8% strikeouts. He allows more fly balls than groundballs, which has led to an above average .184 xISO but a below average .298 xwOBA. In the past month, his statcast numbers are outstanding. He’s allowed 50 batted balls, of which 48% have been groundballs, only 22% have been hard contact, and the average exit velocity has been 87.3 mph. I’m a bit surprised that Paxton is only a -118 favorite with Mike Fiers pitching against him. I would have given more credit to the Mariners offense than that. I’ll be interested to see if anything shifts throughout the day. Oakland only has a 3.6 implied run total, which is positive, but for now I’m going to stick with Verlander in cash and Paxton as a tournament option.  

Value Pitching

German Marquez, COL (@HOU) (DK: $8.4K, FD: $7.9K)

Marquez has been on fire lately and he’d honestly be approaching five figures in salary (at least on DraftKings) if it wasn’t for having to pitch his home games at Coors Field. He’s had at least 40 FanDuel points and 20 DraftKings points in six of his last seven starts (two of those games were over 50 on FanDuel and over 30 on DraftKings.) He’s gone at least six innings in six of those seven starts and had at least eight strikeouts in five of those seven starts. Not bad for a guy priced under $9K on DraftKings and under $8K on FanDuel today. The real story for Marquez is the home/road splits. He’s pitched six more innings on the road this season than he has at home, yet he’s given up 30 less hits, 18 less runs, 21 less earned runs, four less home runs, and has three more strikeouts. Those are pretty crazy differences. When away, he has a 3.31 xFIP, a 1.04 WHIP, a 26.4% strikeout rate, and allows just 1.07 HR/9. At home, he has a 3.81 xFIP (which is still excellent considering the environment) with a much worse 1.74 WHIP. The strikeouts decrease to 23.5% (which again is still good) and he allows 1.75 HR/9. In addition to his recent success and the home/road splits working in his favor today, he’s also getting a positive matchup. Remember, the Astros are still without George Springer and Jose Altuve. That’s a huge hole at the top of this order. Alex Bregman is certainly dangerous, but he’s only one person and Carlos Correa is still getting his feet under him after a long stint on the disabled list. He’s just 1 for 13 since his return. Some of the players in the projected lineup have huge strikeout rates against right-handed pitching also, including Gattis 25.8%, White, 22%, Gonzalez 25.2%, and Maldonado 25.4%. That should give a nice boost to Marquez’s floor/ceiling. The downside here, of course, is you’re sacrificing the win bonus as Marquez is a heavy underdog with Verlander pitching on the other side. Despite that, I really like Marquez as a tournament option today. Being an underdog and with the Astros, carrying a lot of value in name only, I imagine Marquez won’t get a lot of ownership. He’s a very sneaky upside play tonight in what could turn into a pitcher’s duel.  

Alex Wood, LAD (vs. SF) (DK: $8.2K, FD: $8.4K)

UPDATE: Reports starting to surface that Wood will be limited today. I haven't seen anything about an exact pitch count. Ross Stripling was recently moved to the bullpen and the report says he will "piggyback" off Wood tonight. Hard to know for sure exactly what that means but for now the safest thing to do would be avoid this situation. Wood will come off of the disabled list today to take back his spot in the rotation for the Dodgers. He missed just one start with an abductor strain and missed the minimum amount of time allowed, so there shouldn’t be any worries about a pitch count. It’s a great matchup against a struggling Giants team that we should continue to confidently target with pitching. They have a very low .135 ISO, .302 wOBA, and 91 wRC+. Wood’s numbers are solid, he has a 3.91 SIERA with 20.9% strikeouts, and 10.8% swinging strikes. Against lefties, he has a 2.48 xFIP with 23.4% strikeouts and only 1.6% walks. He has a 1.08 WHIP and gets 53.8% groundballs. He’s yet to allow a home run to a left-handed batter this year. Against righties, the xFIP increases to 4.12 and the strikeout rate goes down to 20.1%. He still gets 45.1% groundballs but he also allows 41.7% hard-hits. I’d be a little concerned if it weren’t for the matchup. On top of the strong numbers, he’s been very consistent lately, going at least five innings in nine straight starts and allowing no more than three earned runs in any game during that span. The downside here is the lack of strikeout upside. While he’s very good at run prevention, he doesn’t get as many swing and misses as I’d like to see from my pitcher. He’s only had six or more strikeouts three times in the last ten starts, which makes this more of a floor play for cash games than a ceiling play for tournaments. He’s a solid -185 favorite and the Giants have one of the lowest implied totals on the board today at just 3.3 runs. I think he’s going to be popular, so I’ll likely stay away in tournaments, but I do think he presents a solid enough floor at this price in cash today.  

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

If you’re new to the article, this is the section where I pick an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher to hit a long ball today. If there's a game at Coors Field, I always exclude them from this list because it's too obvious. So just keep that in mind. Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential.

Wil Meyers, SDP: OF (DK: $4.3K, FD: $3.3K)

First of all, yes, I’m aware Ronald Acuna has six home runs in his last seven games. I’m not recommending him as my outfield choice for a home run because the entire world is going to play him tonight. Instead, I’m going to look at Will Meyers. He returned to the Padres lineup yesterday, and now that he’s got a game under his belt, I like him to put one in the cheap seats tonight. Typically, I prefer San Diego batters against left-handed pitching but Meyers is an exception to that rule. He brings a .214 ISO and massive 53.8% hard-hit rate into this game against right-handed pitching. Barria is horrendous against right-handed batters. He allows 43.8% fly balls with 19.3% HR/FB and 40.5% hard contact. Righties have 2.45 HR/9 against him and a .297 xISO. Barria throws a slider nearly 50% of the time and a fastball 32% of the time. Myers has a .194 xISO against sliders and a .377 xISO against fastballs.

Asdrubal Cabrera, PHI: 2B/SS (DK: $4.1K, FD: $3.2K)

I think the Phillies are a bit sneaky tonight. Porcello is having a good season but he does have a weakness against lefties and he’ll see a lot of them in this lineup tonight. Cabrera is standing out with a .212 ISO and 59.1% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching since he joined Philadelphia. Porcello allows 41.8% fly balls, 13.5% HR/FB, and 42% hard contact. Opposing lefties have a .232 xISO against him this season. Porcello throws a slider, fastball, and changeup most often. Cabrera has a .211 xISO against fastballs, a .218 xISO against sliders, and a .286 xISO against changeups.  

Jose Ramirez, CLE: 3B (DK: $5.9K, FD: $5K)

To nobody’s surprise, Cleveland is once again one of the top teams on the board today. It’s a park upgrade, going to the most home run friendly park in baseball. Sal Romano allows a .239 xISO and 42.2% hard contact to left-handed hitters. Ramirez has a .375 ISO and 38.8% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season. Romano throws his two-seam fastball, which he allows a .312 xISO on, 62% of the time to left-handed bats. Ramirez has a .366 xISO and 88.5 mph average exit velocity against this pitch type. Fire him up today.

Value Bats

Similar to the home run watch list, in this section, I’ll provide an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher who are priced in the value tier. If I can find someone under priced on both sites, I’ll highlight them. But in some cases, it could be site specific.

Franmil Reyes, SDP: OF (DK: $3.4K, FD: $2.9K)

I sound like a broken record for always recommending this guy, but until someone raises his price, he continues to be a great value. He’s got a .218 ISO and 37.9% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. I talked a little already about Jaime Barria’s struggles with right-handed batters. He allows a .297 xISO and .407 xwOBA along with 40.5% hard contact. I actually have a little interest in the Padres as a whole tonight in a large field GPP. Barria’s numbers are pretty awful.  

Michael Perez, TBR: C (DK: $3K, FD: $2.2K)

Very small sample size, but Perez is off to a hot start since being recalled and looks to be a solid punt catcher option if you need it. In eleven games so far, he’s 12 for 34 with a .176 ISO, .384 wOBA, and .908 OPS. He has four hits in his last two games including a home run, two runs scored and two runs batted in. This is a pure punt play but middle infield/catcher value on DraftKings is ugly.    

Colan Moran, PIT: 3B (DK: $3.9K, FD: $2.3K)

Moran is constantly a value option when you’re in a pinch. He doesn’t hit for very much power but he has a solid .328 wOBA and a very low 15.9% strikeout rate. He’s 6 for 22 (.316 BA) in the month of August with a .334 wOBA and only 13.6% strikeouts. Nothing flashy. Nothing overpowering. He just quietly gets his job done and reaches base. He also typically bats fourth or fifth in this Pittsburgh lineup, which further increases his value considering this price point. He’s someone you can always have in your back pocket for cash games if you’re looking to save a little salary.

Stacks on Stacks

The Yankees, Braves, Diamondbacks, and Indians all have implied run totals over five as of now. I will exclude them from this list as they are likely to carry the most ownership. Let's see where else we can stack that will be under the radar but could carry similar upside.

Baltimore Orioles (vs. Jason Vargas)

This is a very tough spot for Jason Vargas against an almost completely right-handed Baltimore lineup. Currently, he has a pathetic 9.09 ERA against right-handed hitters. Now, the xFIP is much lower, but still ugly at 4.64, and the BABIP is high at .385, so he’s definitely due for some positive regression. But even with that, he’ll still be a well below average pitcher against right-handed hitters. He has a 1.85 WHIP and an awful 57.3% LOB% while allowing 19.1% HR/FB on 41.2% fly balls and 38.1% hard contact. Opposing right-handed hitters have a .223 xISO and .364 xwOBA against him this season. Baltimore has a lot of younger, unproven talent on their roster right now, but some of these guys have been putting up numbers recently. Admittedly, many of these are very small sample sizes but Cedric Mullins has had at least one hit in three of his first four games. He’s currently carrying a .200 ISO and .470 wOBA against lefties. If Austin Wynns gets the start behind the plate, he makes for a fine punt option. He has a .357 ISO and .437 wOBA in 28 plate appearances against left-handed pitching. Renato Nunez is 15 for 48 in the month of August (.357 BA) with a .424 wOBA and .190 ISO. He’s had at least one hit in ten of the twelve games they’ve played this month and in four of those games, he’s had multiple hits. After the three young guns, you have some younger veterans that have been around for a couple of years but still have something to prove. Joey Rickard has a .214 ISO and .329 wOBA, Trey Mancini has a .188 ISO with 39% hard-hits. Finally, you have the old men who are still hanging on this roster. Mark Trumbo has a .203 ISO and .338 wOBA while Adam Jones has a .172 ISO and .332 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. Overall, this shapes up to be a sneaky stack in a good spot tonight. You’re putting faith in some small sample sizes and some very young prospects, but they are off to a hot start so it may be a good time to jump on board before everyone else does. Just know there’s added risk. Baltimore opened with a strong 4.6 implied run total.  

Boston Red Sox (vs. Nick Pivetta)

I’m curious what the Red Sox ownership will be in this spot. Pivetta is an outstanding pitcher with a 3.21 SIERA, 29.1% strikeout rate, and 12% swinging strike rate. He’s typically a guy I prefer to roster and not stack against. My assumption is that much of the DFS community feels the same way. On a larger slate like this, why choose to attack one of the better pitchers on the board? If this theory holds true then I have a lot of interest in Boston. Yes, the floor is absolutely lowered in this spot as Pivetta certainly has the talent to go out there tonight and throw a gem. But the ceiling remains unchanged and the Red Sox have the highest ceiling of any team in baseball right now, especially against right-handed pitching. Any night that I have the chance to stack them up when they aren’t chalk, I’m going to do it. Betts and Martinez are arguably the top two bats on almost every single slate (I’d put Trout and Judge in that conversation as well but they are both on the disabled list at the moment). Martinez is 19 for 51 with a .576 wOBA and .511 ISO in the month of August and just earned player of the week honors. Betts is 20 for 56 with a .558 wOBA and .378 ISO in the month of August. Both of these guys are at the top of the MVP conversation. Aside from those two, Pivetta does have a tendancy to get hit pretty hard by left-handed batters. They have a .217 xISO and .346 xwOBA against him. This makes Benintendi (.209 ISO, .402 wOBA), Moreland (.231 ISO, .350 wOBA), and Devers (.207 ISO, .325 wOBA) all very strong plays today. Someone that might get overlooked but shouldn’t is Jackie Bradley Jr. He’s quietly climbed to a .199 ISO and .320 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Boston opened with an implied total of 5 runs but it’s dropped to 4.8 already this morning. Still a very good total, but I’m hoping the decrease will help keep more people away from this team today. 

Washington Nationals (vs. John Gant)

There are far too many left-handed hitters in this lineup today for John Gant to have success. He gets crushed by righties, allowing a .211 xISO, .368 xwOBA, and a 58% hard contact rate. His ERA and xFIP are identical to lefties at 5.09 and he has low 16.9% strikeouts and high 10.4% walks. Plus, the BABIP is very low at just .226, which means he’s actually been getting lucky despite how poor all these numbers are. Juan Soto is my favorite bat on this team. He has a .229 ISO and .398 wOBA against right-handed pitching. Obviously, Harper is a close second with his .288 ISO and .376 wOBA. I'm assuming Matt Adams will get the start today and he carries a .284 ISO and .386 wOBA. One of the most impressive things about Adams this season is he’s only striking out 19.6% of the time to right-handed pitchers. Daniel Murphy has a hit in all but two games in August and is currently on a six-game hit streak. He has a .363 wOBA and only 4.3% strikeouts in the month of August. Adam Eaton has a low .101 ISO but a solid .360 wOBA. I would prioritize these guys. This doesn’t mean we can’t include right-handed bats, however. Gant is certainly better against them, but he’s not an ace that we need to shy away from. Anthony Rendon has a .197 ISO and .349 wOBA and Trea Turner has a .326 wOBA plus the stolen base upside. Washington should fly well under the radar today with an implied total of just 4.3 runs. They are one of my favorite stacks of the day, especially the lefties.    

The Bullpen Report

Updated through 8/13

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