Don't forget, we are still hosting a daily (weekday) freeroll on DraftKings!

• 1st Place: $10 via PayPal

• 2nd & 3rd Places: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium, a t-shirt, or a coffee mug

Here is the link to today's contest!

Written by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GP_Landry on Twitter

Hope you all had a great weekend. I thought Brooks Koepka holding off Tiger Woods, despite shooting a 64, at the PGA Championship would be the highlight of the weekend. But then David Bote's walk off grand slam made for a pretty special Sunday in sports. If you missed Bote's walk-off here's a link. Incredible. Today brings us a ten-game slate. I'm comfortable with the pitching options we have today. There are multiple options in the high, middle, and low-tiers. I'll highlight some of my favorites below, but just know these guys aren't the only playable options. Bats are less exciting today. There are teams and players that I like, but after nearly a week of several teams with implied run totals over five, we only have a couple today. This should make for a great tournament slate with the masses stacking up the Indians and Diamondbacks and leaving a few teams in good spots really low owned. The game in New York has some rain threats as well as Kansas City, but Kansas City looks like it may arrive after the game ends. Just keep an eye on both places to be sure. As usual, several hot weather games but nothing that truly stands out (it's only 85 in Texas today). There are no places where I expect the winds to have any impact. Alright, enough of the introduction. Let's get to work on this slate!

High Priced Pitching

Luis Severino, NYY (vs. NYM) (DK: $11.8K, FD: $10.3K)

It wasn’t pretty, especially at first when Severino allowed two runs on three hits in the first inning, but he settled down and turned in a solid performance last time out including seven innings, and eight strikeouts while only allowing three earned runs. Something still doesn’t seem totally right with him, so I’ll continue to make him a tournament recommendation only, but this is another great matchup to prove himself against the Mets. He faced them once already this season, back on June 10th, going five innings, allowing five hits, two earned runs, and seven strikeouts. The Mets are near the bottom of the league against right-handed pitching with a .159 ISO, .307 wOBA, and 94 wRC+. They also strikeout 21.5% of the time. His ERA and SIERA have both increased over the past month but they are still a comfortable 3.11 and 3.30, respectively. Strikeout upside isn’t a problem either with his 27.7% strikeout rate and 12.2% swinging strike rate along with a solid 1.01 WHIP. His right/left splits are excellent, including a 28.5% strikeout rate and 3.07 xFIP against lefties and a 27% strikeout rate and 3.29 xFIP against righties. Opposing right-handed hitters have a .184 xISO and .307 xwOBA against him while opposing left-handed hitters have a .154 xISO and .311 xwOBA against him. Even with the good matchup today, I’m not ready to pull the trigger on him in cash until I see a few solid starts put together consistently. But the ceiling remains in-tact and I was encouraged by his ability to bounce back after a real rough beginning to his last start. He’ll continue to be an elite tournament option. The Yankees are -161 favorites and the Mets implied total is holding steady at only 3.1 runs.

Mike Foltynewicz, ATL (vs. MIA) (DK: $10.5K, FD: $8.9K)

I had a tough time deciding between highlighting Kershaw and Foltynewicz in this space. For the record, I do like Kershaw plenty today, but there’s several things about this spot for Foltynewicz that I thought were worth pointing out. For starters, the huge price differences on the two sites. On DraftKings today, Foltynewicz is the third most expensive pitcher, $500 more than Kershaw. On FanDuel, Foltynewicz is the seventh most expensive pitcher, $1900 less than Kershaw as well as cheaper than Bumgarner and Clevinger. He’s my cash game arm on FanDuel today at that price. I think we can start to have a little more confidence targeting the Marlins with pitching despite how annoying they’ve been throughout the season. If you missed it Friday, the Marlins sent arguably their best hitter, Justin Bour, to the Philadelphia Phillies in exchange for a pitching prospect. This takes one of the few threats this Miami lineup had out of the equation and it’s going to make a big hole in the middle of their order. Plus, Foltynewicz’s one weakness is left-handed hitters, where he has a 4.22 xFIP, 12.7% walks, and allows a .175 xISO. With the change, the Marlins moved Dietrich to first base and called up Rafael Ortega from Triple-A. Ortega has some upside, but it’s mainly in stolen bases, and he’s certainly not the threat that Bour was. All of this gives a boost To Foltynewicz today in this matchup. Overall, he has a 3.73 SIERA with 28% strikeouts and 10.4% swinging strikes. I already mentioned that the run prevention and walks could use a little work against lefties, but he still has a 26.8% strikeout rate. Against righties, he’s excellent, with a 3.03 xFIP, 29.3% strikeouts and the walks cut in half to 6.6%. Opposing righties have a .145 xISO and .287 xwOBA against him. Although he’s not the most consistent pitcher in the world, with deGrom facing the Yankees and Kershaw still showing some inconsistencies himself, I like Foltynewicz today against this very watered down Miami lineup. For comparison sake, Kershaw has six or more strikeouts in just four of his last ten starts compared to Foltynewicz who has six or more in seven of his last ten. As I mentioned before, at his price on FanDuel, I really like him for cash games today. On DraftKings, my assumption is that Kershaw will be rather popular with his cheaper price tag and the Giants having the lowest implied total on the board today. I’ll happily pivot to Foltynewicz in tournaments if that turns out to be the case.

Value Pitching

Marco Gonzales, SEA (@OAK) (DK: $7.6K, FD: $8.3K)

Gonzales has been roughed up in his last two starts but I’m not discouraged about either of them. The first one, against Toronto, wasn’t as bad as it seems. He took the loss, but still managed to pitch seven innings, allowing seven hits, four earned runs, and seven strikeouts. He gave up two, two run home runs, which obviously killed him. But it was still 18 points on DraftKings and 30 points on FanDuel. The last start was much worse, going just five innings, allowing twelve hits, seven earned runs, and getting only three strikeouts. But that game was in Globe Life Park, which you guys know I commonly refer to as the Coors Field of the American League. I’m not surprised he got hit hard in that ballpark in the middle of summer. Basically, I’m willing to overlook his last two starts as they are only a small sample size compared to how good he’s been all season. Plus, his price has dropped dramatically, specifically on DraftKings, over the past two weeks. On DraftKings, he was $9.9K as recently as 7/29 and now he’s dropped to $7.6K. That’s a $2.3K difference in a span of only two starts. I’ll gladly take that discount. Some more encouraging news is, in his last start against Oakland, back on May 23rd, he went seven innings, allowing only two hits, zero earned runs, and getting six strikeouts. Before those two rough starts, he had won five in a row, allowing no more than two earned runs in any of them and striking out seven in three of the five starts. Gonzales has a 3.70 SIERA with 21.7% strikeouts and only 4.4% walks. Over the past month, he’s allowed 72 batted balls of which 18.1% of them have been soft contact. Currently, he’s an underdog in this game, though I don’t agree with that. Plus, there has already been some interesting Vegas activity. The Athletics opened as -133 favorites and that has gone down to -123 overnight. Oakland’s implied run total has also started to fall going from 4.3 runs to 4.2 runs. That doesn’t necessarily mean anything but it would appear that there are others out there who disagreed with the opening line.

Sean Reid-Foley, TOR (@KC) (DK: $4.4K, FD: $5.5K)

Who? That was the question I asked as well when I saw him on the probable starters list today. He will make his Major League debut after an excellent season so far in Triple-A. He’s the Blue Jays number 10 prospect per MLB Pipeline. At Triple-A Buffalo, he’s 7-4 with a 3.50 ERA in 15 starts. He has 94 strikeouts to just 27 walks in only 82.1 innings of work. He has a 3.31 xFIP, a 1.21 GB/FB, and only 6.7% HR/FB rate. Against left-handed batters, he’s allowing a .235 batting average, .331 OBP, .362 slugging percentage, and a .693 OPS. Against right-handed batters, he allows just a .178 batting average, .251 OBP, .248 slugging percentage, and a .499 OPS. I took a look at some scouting reports for him and the news is mainly positive. His fastball can reach 97 mph but the average is between 92 and 95 mph. He also throws a slider and a curveball that have above average potential according to MLB Pipeline. He was a second-round pick in the 2014 draft and on the fast track toward the Major League roster before a rough 2017 set the team’s plans back a little. He’s managed to bounce back this season in a big way, and with Toronto well out of the playoff race, they are looking to give an extended look at a few guys that may have a shot at their starting rotation next season. Normally I would take a wait and see approach on something like this depending on the situation. The only two pitchers I’ve used this season in their debuts were Shane Bieber, who’s numbers were just too ridiculous to ignore, and Enyel De Los Santos, who made his debut on a slate that had terrible value pitching options and he made sense as a punt SP2 against the Marlins. Reid-Foley’s numbers are not anything like Bieber’s, who was promoted after pitching a no-hitter and had 61 strikeouts to only three walks in 65 innings at the time, but they are still solid. Plus, he gets to ease his way into the Major League level today against a Kansas City lineup that would mainly all be minor league players still if they were on any other team. They have just a .122 ISO, .292 wOBA, and 81 wRC+ to go along with a very high 23% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. With his minor league numbers, encouraging scouting reports, this matchup, and his price today, he checks off enough boxes for me to want to take some shots with him in tournaments.

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

If you’re new to the article, this is the section where I pick an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher to hit a long ball today. If there's a game at Coors Field, I always exclude them from this list because it's too obvious so just keep that in mind. Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential.

Yonder Alonso, CLE: 1B (DK: $4.2K, FD: $3.1K)

We are going to get a front row seat to the funeral of Homer Bailey today who gets smashed by left-handed hitters, allowing a .231 xISO and 2.09 HR/9. He’ll have to face several tough ones today, including Yonder Alonso, in the worst (if you’re a pitcher) ballpark in baseball for left-handed power. In fact, after the weekend, Great American Ballpark is now first in the league in home runs allowed. Alonso has a .214 ISO and 39.5% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. He profiles well against Bailey including a .285 xISO against fastballs, a .363 xISO against two-seam fastballs, and a .200 xISO against changeups.

A.J. Pollock, ARI: OF (DK: $4.9K, FD: $3.6K)

The Diamondbacks get a nice park upgrade today going from Chase Field (18th in home runs) to Globe Life Park (3rd in home runs). Colon has allowed 26 home runs this season including four in his last three starts. He’s especially vulnerable against right-handed hitters where he allows a .268 xISO, 43.6% hard contact, and 2.56 HR/9. Pollock has a .224 ISO and 45.1% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. Colon throws a two seam-fastball nearly 70% of the time, along with a slider and a fastball. Pollock has a .194 xISO against two-seam fastballs, a .230 xISO against sliders, and a .465 xISO against fastballs.

Paul DeJong, STL: SS (DK: $4.2K, FD: $3.6K)

He only has a .169 ISO and 32.6% hard-hit rate against left-handed pitchers this season but he’s starting to heat up with two home runs in his last four games. His career numbers are much better against lefties as well, where he has a .248 ISO and 35.1% hard-hit rate. I’m going to trust the larger sample size especially considering the recent home run activity. Tommy Milone has been getting hit hard by right-handed batters allowing a .250 xISO and 39.5% hard contact.

Value Bats

Similar to the home run watch list, in this section I’ll provide an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher who are priced in the value tier. If I can find someone under priced on both sites, I’ll highlight them. But in some cases it could be site specific.

Adam Duvall, CIN: OF (DK: $3.5K, FD: $2.8K)

Value is a little tougher than usual to find on DraftKings today. Duvall has been very cold but his price continues to drop and reflect this. He still has upside with the .187 ISO and 34.1% hard-hit rate. He gets a matchup today with Merandy Gonzalez who will be making a spot start for the Marlins. He has a 4.30 xFIP and 1.59 WHIP while allowing a .208 xISO and .342 xwOBA to right-handed hitters. In a pinch, in tournaments, if you needed some cheap upside, you could do worse than Duvall in this spot.

Adrian Beltre, TEX: 3B (DK: $3.5K, FD: $3K)

Not the best matchup for Beltre but there are a few things to be encouraged about. For starters, obviously he’s cheap, which is why I’m listing him as a value bat. Secondly, he’s at home in a game that features the highest total on the board today and the Rangers have a healthy implied total of 4.3 runs. Third, Greinke gets hit hard by right-handed bats including a .216 xISO and 44.5% hard contact. Beltre’s numbers as a whole are down this season but it’s hard to ignore a guy with a career .194 ISO and .345 wOBA priced all the way down in this tier.

Daniel Descalso, ARI: 2B (DK: $4.2K, FD: $2.4K)

Descalso’s price on FanDuel is a crime. He’ll be in the lineup on the team with the highest implied total of the day at 5.6 runs. He’s facing Bartolo Colon who gets crushed by both sides of the plate. Against lefties, he allows a .210 xISO and .371 xwOBA. Descalso has a .187 ISO, .357 wOBA, and 39.2% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season. Notice the price difference between the two sites. He’s a cash game lock on FanDuel.

Stacks on Stacks

The chalk stacks of the day are looking like Cleveland against Homer Bailey. They currently have a 5.1 implied run total. Also, the Arizona Diamondbacks taking on Bartolo Colon down at Globe Life Park. They have a 5.7 implied run total. I like both of these teams plenty today but they should carry the majority of ownership. I’m going to exclude them from this list and find some sneakier teams for us to potentially work with.

San Diego Padres (vs. Andrew Heaney)

Just like the last time Heaney was on the hill against the Tigers, and I recommended stacking Tigers, I’m going to recommend stacking the Padres. It worked out well the last time and I can see it working out here again. Don’t get me wrong, I do like Heaney as a pitcher, but these recent matchups just haven’t lined up well for him. Heaney has a lot of issues with right-handed batters including a 4.28 xFIP, 40.1% fly ball rate, 14.3% HR/FB, and 43.8% hard contact. Opposing righties have a .220 xISO and a .350 xwOBA against him this season. For all the flaws on this Padres team, the one thing they do have is power, with a team .170 ISO and 37.5% hard-hit rate against lefties. They also strikeout a ton (24.1%) so this is completely boom or bust. Christian Villanueva has a .419 ISO, .476 wOBA, and 41.4% hard-hit rate. Franmil Reyes has a .357 ISO, .453 wOBA, and 52.9% hard-hit rate. Hunter Renfroe has a .250 ISO, .366 wOBA, and a 47% hard-hit rate. Those three are the priority. After them, we have a mix of players with less impressive numbers but some signs of upside. Austin Hedges has a 41.9% hard-hit rate, Freddy Galvis has a 37.3% hard-hit rate, and Manuel Margot has a 44.2% hard-hit rate. Like I said, boom or bust. I can see a world today where Heaney is as popular as most pitchers against the Padres are. I like the San Diego stack as a great leverage play that will fly completely under the radar.

Chicago White Sox (vs. Artie Lewicki)

Speaking of boom or bust, the White Sox are another very high strikeout team that also carries some serious power. What you’ll get out of them is anyone’s guess, but they definitely have the upside to compete if you catch them on the right night. Artie Lewicki has a 4.24 SIERA, only 18.2% strikeouts, and a 1.56 WHIP. He mainly works out of the bullpen but makes the occasional spot start. He’s 0-2 in two starts this year. He lasted only 3.2 innings in the first game and five innings in the second game. He gives up a .254 xISO, .421 xwOBA, and 46.8% hard contact to lefties. That makes them the priority. Daniel Palka has a .282 ISO and .332 wOBA. Yoan Moncada has a .208 ISO and .331 wOBA, and Omar Narvaez, assuming he starts, has a .351 wOBA. Lewicki’s not much better against right-handed hitters allowing a .189 xISO, .367 xwOBA, and 47.9% hard-hit rate. This puts Avisail Garcia’s .215 ISO and 38.8% hard-hit rate squarely on the radar. Jose Abreu also has a .200 ISO and .328 wOBA. Matt Davidson (if he plays) has a .207 ISO, just watch out for the massive strikeout rate. Since Lewicki never made it past five innings in either of his starts and he hasn’t had a spot start in over two months I would anticipate an early hook and extra opportunities against the bullpen. The Detroit relievers have a 4.49 xFIP, almost 10% walks, and a 37.4% hard contact rate. Chicago has a solid implied run total today of 4.6 runs. They are another zero floor but high ceiling option that will go completely off the radar on this slate.

St. Louis Cardinals (vs. Tommy Milone)

Milone’s time in the majors started off really promising. In his first game, he went five innings, allowing just three hits, zero earned runs, and had six strikeouts. In this next start, he went seven innings, allowing three hits, and just one earned run with an impressive nine strikeouts. Sounds good right? Then you add the context and point out that those games were against the Marlins and the Mets, respectively. Suddenly, it’s a different story. The minute Milone faced some actual competition, the Atlanta Braves, he got shelled, allowing ten hits, seven earned runs, including three home runs, and getting just four strikeouts. I’m going to put the Cardinals closer to the level of competition the Braves represent than the Marlins and the Mets. What makes the matchup even better for St. Louis is they are a right-handed lineup and Milone gets smoked by righties allowing a .250 xISO and .350 xwOBA. I already mentioned Paul DeJong in the home run section. I like him a lot in this spot. Jedd Gyorko is another lefty killer with his .271 ISO and .424 wOBA. Harrison Bader continues to rake and will bring his .228 ISO and .402 wOBA against lefties into this matchup. Yairo Munoz has a .226 ISO and .333 wOBA. Ozuna’s power is down this season but beginning to increase up to a .175 ISO, which is getting closer to his career .189 ISO. I haven’t even mentioned the best player yet in Matt Carpenter who has a .304 ISO and .392 wOBA along with 54% hard-hits. Yadier Molina doesn’t have a ton of power against righties but a solid .347 wOBA. Jose Martinez’s numbers are down across the board but his career numbers against left-handed pitching are more than enough for me to trust him in a stack today. All in all, this is a great spot for these Cardinals and they are a great team to stack because they have options at virtually every position. It makes it really easy to pair them with another team if you’re planning to do full stacks with two teams together. They opened with a 4.9 implied run total. They aren’t quite as off the board as the Padres or the White Sox, but they will be low enough owned that I don’t have any concerns. They are shaping up to be my favorite stack of the day.

The Bullpen Report

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @glandry if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@GP_Landry). Don't forget to signup for the freeroll!

Have a hot take or play? Feel free to tell us about it: [email protected] we love to hear from you all!