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Written by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GP_Landry on Twitter

Good morning everyone! We have a (10-12)-game Sunday afternoon slate to talk about today. There are some huge implied totals on the board including the Yankees, Red Sox, both teams at Coors Field, and the Indians. The Yankees, Red Sox, and Indians are all 5.5 runs or more and the Coors total isn't out yet but I expect both of those team will be over six runs. I excluded all these guys from the stack section because it seemed a bit obvious but just know I do like all those teams, although I believe they will carry the majority of the ownership. I like the pitching options today as well, both in the top-tier and the value-tier. I’ll highlight a few of my favorites. The weather looks solid today. No threats of rain, several hot weather games as usual, and nothing unusual with the wind. Keep an eye on it but we should be fine. I’m going to keep this short and sweet today to make sure I can get it out to you guys early enough with the slate starting at 1:05 pm EST today. Good luck!

High Priced Pitching

Chris Sale, BOS (@BAL) (DK: $12.5K, FD: $12.8K)

What can really be said about this guy that we don’t already know? Since the start of June, Sale has made ten starts. Let’s take a quick look at some of the highlights during that span. He’s gone at least six innings in ten straight starts and at least seven innings in half of those starts. He’s had at least nine strikeouts in nine of those ten starts and double-digit strikeouts in seven of those ten starts. He’s allowed only a total of nine earned runs and four of those came in one game during that span. He has five games, including his last three, with zero earned runs allowed. He’s 6-2 with a 1.83 xFIP, and 103 strikeouts in 66 innings pitched. As far as Baltimore goes, this will be his third start against them. He went five innings, allowing two hits, and one earned run with eight strikeouts in the first meeting which somehow ended up as a no decision due to poor run support. In the second meeting, he went six innings allowing two hits and one earned run with nine strikeouts while getting the win. If this isn’t enough to convince you, he has a 2.37 SIERA with 37.6% strikeouts and 15.8% swinging strikes and a 0.87 WHIP. Opposing lefties have a .067 xISO and .196 xwOBA while opposing righties have a .141 xISO and .247 xwOBA. He’s a ridiculous -340 favorite and the Orioles implied run total is just 2.9. Fire him up in your cash games and if you can make him work in tournaments he’s obviously got more than enough ceiling to get it done. Just keep in mind he's likely limited to 85 pitches in his return, coming back from left shoulder inflammation.

Carlos Carrasco, CLE (@CWS) (DK: $11.K, FD: $10.5K)

Carrasco is priced right in between Sale and Syndergaard and as a result I think he goes lower owned today. People are either going to pay all the way up for Sale or they will take the significant discount on Syndergaard today against the Marlins. This leaves Carrasco all by himself which is a perfect spot to use him since he has zero floor but an incredibly high ceiling. He’s even been, surprisingly, consistent recently. He’s gone at least six innings in four straight starts with at least eight strikeouts in each of them. He’s allowed no more than three earned runs and given up no more than two walks in that span. Does that mean he’s suddenly a consistent pitcher with a strong floor? No, but it’s encouraging to see him string together multiple starts in a row like that. He’s already faced the White Sox once this season and went seven innings, allowing two hits, zero earned runs, and eleven strikeouts. I’d LOVE to see another outing like that today. On the season, he has a 3.20 SIERA with 27.8% strikeouts and 14.1% swinging strikes. He’s strong against both sides of the plate, which is important against a team like the White Sox that can mix up their lineup. He has a 3.15 xFIP with 28.5% strikeouts against lefties and a 3.21 xFIP with 27.1% strikeouts against righties. The White Sox strikeout 25.7% of the time against right-handed pitching which is tied with the Padres for the most on this slate. If not for Chris Sale, Carrasco would be the largest favorite on the board at -255. Due to the volatility he brings you can’t play him in cash but he’s an outstanding tournament play every time he takes the hill.

Value Pitching

Matt Boyd, DET (vs. MIN) (DK: $6.8K, FD: $7.4K)

Boyd has shown some strikeout upside recently with at least seven strikeouts in three of his last five starts. He’s faced Minnesota twice this season and hasn’t had the best results. In the first game on 5/22 he lasted just four innings, allowed only one hit, and gave up only two earned runs but had four walks and zero strikeouts. The walks obviously were what killed him. The second time he faced them, on 6/13, he went five innings allowing three hits, two earned runs and getting five strikeouts. This will be his first time facing the Twins without Brian Dozier or Eduardo Escobar so that should help as well. Minnesota, even before those trades, is terrible against left-handed pitching. They have a very low .114 ISO (actually lower than the Mets!), a .294 wOBA, and an 81 wRC+. Plus, they strikeout 24.1% of the time to lefties. All these factors should provide a nice boost to Boyd’s floor and ceiling. His numbers are on the season are okay, solid, but not great. He has a 4.35 SIERA with 21.8% strikeouts and 10% swinging strikes. He allows a high fly ball rate (46%) but a below average HR/FB (8.8%). He’s really good against lefties and he should see several today in this Minnesota lineup. He has a 3.84 xFIP with 25% strikeouts and only 4.2% walks. The WHIP is outstanding at 1.03 and opponents have only a .142 xISO and .267 xwOBA against him. As you might expect, the numbers are worse against righties. The xFIP increases to 4.91 and the strikeout rate drops to 20.8% along with a higher 9% walk rate. But, there aren’t any right-handed bats that I’m worried about in this lineup. Boyd only allows a .160 xISO and .300 xwOBA against them. He’s currently a -115 favorite which I actually think is a bit low considering the matchup and his opponent is making their major league debut today. Boyd makes for a fine value SP2 in tournaments on this slate.

Wei-Yen Chen, MIA (vs. NYM) (DK: $5.5K, FD: $6K)

Believe it or not there is a lot to like about Chen today. First, the recent form hasn’t been too bad. He’s gone at least five innings in eight of his last ten starts. He even flashed some upside with an eight strikeout performance against the Phillies on July 13th. Second, he’s pitching at home, and as we’ve talked about before any pitcher in Marlins Park gets a boost. It’s 27th in runs scored and 28th in home runs among all major league parks this season. Chen is 3-2 in nine starts at home with a 4.37 xFIP, 21.1% strikeout rate, and a 1.04 WHIP compared to 1-6 on the road also in nine starts with a 6.08 xFIP, only 12.5% strikeouts, and an ugly 1.96 WHIP. That’s a huge difference. One of the big reasons he has more success at home is because the huge ballpark allows him to get away with his very high flyball rate. At home, he allows 40.1% fly balls but only 5.5% HR/FB. He’s given up just a total of three home runs when pitching in Marlins Park. On the road, however, he has a 44.2% fly ball rate with a much higher 17.7% HR/FB. He’s given up 11 home runs in his nine road starts. Last, but not least, the Mets are terrible against left-handed pitching. In fact, they are the worst team in baseball with a 26.1% strikeout rate (highest on the slate) and a very low .116 ISO, .277 wOBA, and 75 wRC+. All of this adds up to a near perfect scenario for Chen. Unfortunately, the one negative is he’s an underdog with Noah Syndergaard pitching for the Mets today. But, the Mets only have a 3.9 implied run total of their own and they are pretty infamous for providing terrible run support to their starting rotation. Chen makes for a fantastic punt option in tournaments today.

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

If you’re new to the article, this is the section where I pick an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher to hit a long ball today. If there's a game at Coors Field, I always exclude them from this list because it's too obvious so just keep that in mind. Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential.

Matt Carpenter, STL: 1B/3B (DK: $5.7K, FD: $4.6K)

The only left-handed bat in the Cardinals lineup is still the most dangerous even with Junis allowing more home runs to righties than lefties. Junis allows a .216 xISO including 41.3% fly balls, 14.5% HR/FB and 40.5% hard contact to left-handed batters this season. Carpenter has a .321 ISO and 49.8% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. Junis throws a fastball, sinker, and slider. Carpenter is below average against sliders, but he mashes fastballs with a .469 xISO and sinkers with a .572 xISO.

Giancarlo Stanton, NYY: OF (DK: $5.4K, FD: $4.9K)

Stanton against a lefty is always a good decision. Stanton against a lefty who allows the most home runs on the slate to right-handed hitters? No brainer. Perez allows 2.23 HR/9 to left-handed batters including a 2.16 WHIP, a 20.4% HR/FB, and 45.1% hard contact. Right-handed hitters have a .210 xISO against him this season. That brings us to Stanton who has a .343 ISO and 59% hard-hit rate against lefties this season. Perez throws a two-seam fastball, changeup, and slider most often. Stanton has a .816 xISO against two-seam fastballs, a .266 xISO against changeups, and a .351 xISO against sliders.

Francisco Lindor, CLE: SS (DK: $5.9K, FD: $5K)

Dylan Covey allows 39.1% hard-hits and a .211 xISO against left-handed batters. He has more power versus right-handed pitching (.297 ISO) than left-handed pitching (.213 ISO) as well as a 42.7% hard-hit rate. Covey throws his two-seam fastball 65% of the time and his slider and changeup an additional 12% each. Lindor has a .400 xISO against two-seam fastballs, a .301 xISO against changeups, and a .309 xISO against sliders this season.

Value Bats

Similar to the home run watch list, in this section, I’ll provide an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher who are priced in the value tier. If I can find someone under priced on both sites, I’ll highlight them. But in some cases it could be site specific.

Kendrys Morales, TOR: 1B (DK: $3.5K, FD: $2.7K)

The switch hitting Morales has been significantly better as a left-handed hitter facing right-handed pitching this season. He has a .202 ISO, .345 wOBA, and 45.4% hard-hit rate. He’ll face Tyler Glasnow today who’s been pretty solid, in limited action, since his trade to Tampa Bay. He is, however, allowing a .184 ISO and .342 wOBA to lefties along with an awful 16.9% walk rate and 1.69 WHIP. One mistake is all it will take for Morales to reach value.

Franmil Reyes, SDP: OF (DK: $3.5K, FD: $3K)

Doesn’t matter if it’s the Padres anyone who bats cleanup at this price has my interest automatically. It doesn’t hurt, however, when that person is Reyes. He will continue to be a value every slate at this price point. Since the start of August his 9 for 19 with a .673 wOBA, and .611 ISO, three home runs, six runs scored, and five runs batted in. He’ll face Jake Arrieta today who has a 4.63 xFIP, only 17.3% strikeouts, and a high 10.4% walk rate against lefties. I like Reyes to return value today on this very cheap price tag.

Niko Goodrum, DET: 2B (DK: $3.8K, FD: $2.3K)

Kohl Stewart will make his major league debut today and to be honest I wasn’t overly impressed with his minor league numbers. First, this was a very quick promotion. He started the season in Double-A, was promoted to Triple-A after 14 games. Then pitched only seven games in Triple-A before being called up today. He has low strikeout numbers and an xFIP that’s hanging right around 4.00 which I don’t like to see when the pitcher has only been facing minor league competition. Goodrum has a low floor but plenty of upside for this price point, particularly on FanDuel. He has a .223 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.

Stacks on Stacks

There are a ton of good places for offense today. The chalk stacks include Colorado, Los Angeles, Boston, New York (Yankees), and Cleveland. They all have massive implied run totals and are all in excellent spots tonight. I’m going to exclude them here, since they are a bit obvious, but just know I like all those team and have no issue using players from them or stacking them. They are likely to carry the highest ownership.

St Louis Cardinals (vs. Jakob Junis)

Stacking this team worked out extremely well last night and I have no reason to not go right back to it again. Junis, despite having some strikeout upside against right-handed batters, actually struggles more with righties than lefties. He’s allowing a 22.1% HR/FB and 2.12 HR/9 to right-handed hitters. They have a .238 xISO and .352 xwOBA against him. This shapes up as a great spot for the Cardinals right-handed heavy lineup. Yadier Molina (.199 ISO, .349 wOBA), Paul DeJong (.193 ISO, .333 wOBA), and Jose Martinez (.182 ISO, .368 wOBA) are my three favorite RIGHT-HANDED options on this team. Obviously, Matt Carpenter is the best option in this offense despite being left-handed. It’s not like Junis is very good against lefties and Carpenter has a .321 ISO and .412 wOBA against right-handed pitching. Harrison Bader is on fire right now. I much prefer him against lefties but if you really needed a salary saver you could include him in a stack. I actually prefer Yairo Munoz, however, who has a .331 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. The Cardinals implied run total opened up just over five runs but they should get significantly less attention than the chalk stacks I mentioned earlier.

Atlanta Braves (vs. Chase Anderson)

This shapes up as a really good spot for the Braves. They are a much better team against left-handed pitching than right-handed pitching but their opponent today, Chase Anderson, has huge reverse splits and actually prefers to face lefties instead of righties. He gives up a massive .301 xISO and .383 xwOBA to right-handed hitters this season. This should provide a very nice boost for the Braves. First, they have a dangerous group of lefties in the order who can all hit right-handed pitching very well. Albies will bat from the left-side where he has a .216 ISO and .331 wOBA. Freddie Freeman is next with a .181 ISO and .380 wOBA, and Nick Markakis follows him with a .174 ISO and .376 wOBA. After that, we have some dangerous right-handed bats who don’t hit right-handed pitching as well (besides Ronald Acuna) but should get a boost with Anderson’s reverse splits. Acuna, with his .241 ISO and .366 wOBA is one of my favorite bats on this slate. Camargo has a solid .329 wOBA and Suzuki or Flowers, whoever plays, both have above average hard-hits against righties even if the numbers don’t reflect that yet. Atlanta opened as a -124 and have an implied team total of 4.4 runs. They are another sneaky tournament option today.

Arizona Diamondbacks (vs. Luis Castilllo)

The stack against DeSclanfani two nights ago did not work out as he went out and threw a gem on Friday night. But, that’s baseball for you. Nothing in the numbers was telling us to be afraid of Desclafani. He just went out there and did his job and caught the rest of us off guard. I’m going back to the “stack against Cincinnati” well today where Luis Castillo will be on the hill. Don’t get me wrong, I think he’s a much more talented pitcher than someone like DeSclanfani, but he still struggles with lefties which puts him in a bad spot today. Arizona can go almost entirely left-handed with their lineup with the exception of Paul Goldschmidt and A.J Pollock. Castillo has a 4.58 xFIP with a 1.63 WHIP against lefties. He’s allowed 1.94 HR/9 and 43.2% hard contact. As far as the Diamondbacks go, the priorities start with David Peralta and his .246 ISO, .400 wOBA, and 48.3% hard-hit rate this season. Pollock has a .229 ISO and .368 wOBA while Goldschmidt has a .217 ISO and .370 wOBA against right-handed pitching. After that core group, we have Descalso who has a .187 ISO and .357 wOBA, Escobar who has a .328 wOBA, and Alex Avila who has a massive 54% hard-hit rate. Arizona’s implied total opened at 4.6 runs and has increased to 4.7 runs overnight. This is a major park upgrade for them going from Chase Field to Great American Ballpark today. I like them to fly well under the radar in tournaments but with a high enough ceiling that could do some serious damage.

The Bullpen Report

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @glandry if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@GP_Landry).

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