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Written by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GP_Landry on Twitter

Happy Saturday everyone! I hope your weekend is starting out right. We’ve got a ten-game main slate to talk about today. Top-end pitching has a lot of options and some interesting comparisons that we’ll talk about. There are some big discrepancies in pricing today on the two sites between some potentially key players so make sure you are paying attention. We also have a very intriguing pitching option, normally priced on the high-end but is a mid-range option today making his first start off of the disabled list. Normally, I take a more wait and see approach with these players but I’m strongly considering using him today. We’ll get to that as well. The Red Sox and Orioles are playing a double-header today and the second game is on the main slate. We should get the lineup in advance of the game since the first one starts at 1:05 pm EST but don’t be surprised if some players get the game off. As far as weather goes, Baltimore does look like a potential trouble spot worth watching. It’s also hot in almost every game today with the exception of the two indoor games (Miami, Houston) and San Francisco. Good luck today!

High Priced Pitching

Trevor Bauer, CLE (@CWS) (DK: $12.5K, FD: $12K)

High priced pitching hasn’t gone well the last two nights but Bauer is here to fix that for us. He has one of the best floor/ceiling combinations in all of baseball right now. He’s gone at least six innings and had at least seven strikeouts in nine of his last ten starts. Four of those games he went for double-digit strikeouts. He’s faced the White Sox twice this season already and has had a lot of success. Remarkably, he lost the first game, despite going 7.2 innings and allowing just three earned runs and getting 12 strikeouts. He came back his very next start against them and picked up the win going seven innings without allowing any runs and getting eight strikeouts. There’s really not much analysis needed here. He’s season long numbers are crazy good. He has a 3.23 SIERA with 31.3% strikeouts and 12.9% swinging strikes. Against lefties, he has a 3.79 xFIP with 26.4% strikeouts and against righties he has a 3.02 xFIP with 30.6% strikeouts. He’s a massive -239 favorite today as I fully expect his teammates to tee-off on James Shields. Chicago’s implied total opened at just 3.4 runs. He’s the top cash game pitcher on this slate and absolutely in the conversation for tournaments.

Aaron Nola, PHI (@SDP) (DK: $9.8K, FD: $10.5K)

I’m going Nola over Flaherty today on DraftKings (Flaherty over Nova on FanDuel because of the price difference) but it wasn’t an easy decision. Both of these guys have great matchups and great numbers. Flaherty in fact, has a better SIERA (3.36), strikeout rate (29.9%), and swinging strikes (12.8) compared to Nola’s 3.60 SIERA, 24.8% strikeout rate, and 11.5% swinging strikes. They both dominate right-handed hitters but struggle a little with lefties. Their opponents today are both awful against right-handed pitching with the Padres ranking 29th and the Royals ranking 28th. Even their price today is only $200 apart on DraftKings! So why am I choosing Nola? It’s pretty simple, the Padres have the highest strikeout rate in baseball against right-handed pitchers at 25.7%. The Royals are striking out more these days but it’s not as much as San Diego. This allows Nola to level off with Flaherty in terms of strikeout upside today. Plus, Nola is pitching deeper into games more consistently than Flaherty. Nola has gone at least six innings in eight of his last ten starts while Flaherty has gone six innings only three times in his last ten starts. If we are going to assume their strikeout rate to be fairly even today given the matchups and then you’re going to tell me that Nola is more likely to get an extra inning or two then that’s who I’m going to roll with. I’m hoping people will be more apt to target Flaherty against Kansas City and obviously if it appears that Nola is turning into mega-chalk I will happily pivot to Flaherty. But leaving ownership out of the equation, based on this comparison, I’m more interested in Nola today (again only on DraftKings. Flaherty is a steal on FanDuel). He’s cash game playable and in the conversation for tournaments as well. The Padres have the lowest total on the board at just 3.1 runs.

Value Pitching

Tyler Skaggs, LAA (vs. OAK) (DK: $8.2K, FD: $8.3K)

It all comes down to his health which makes this incredibly risky. I haven’t seen anything about a pitch count and he was on the disabled list the minimum allowed time so I’m assuming he’s good to go. If that’s the case, then he’s very underpriced today considering he was $11.3K on DraftKings and $9.8K on FanDuel in his last start. They are baiting us to take the risk and I’m planning to bite as there is simply way too much upside for this price tag if everything goes according to plan. He’s 2-0 against Oakland this season and has yet to give up an earned run in either start. He had only five strikeouts in their first meeting and came back with eight strikeouts in the more recent matchup. On the season, he has a 3.67 SIERA with 25% strikeouts and 11.3% swinging strikes. Those numbers are almost identical to both Aaron Nola and Jack Flaherty yet we are getting over a $1000 discount in DraftKings on both of them and a crazy $2200 discount on FanDuel off of Nola (Flaherty is actually cheaper than Skaggs on FanDuel further illustrating how much of a steal he is). He’s outstanding against lefties, with a 3.57 xFIP, 24.1% strikeout rate, only 4% walks, and a 1.09 WHIP. He’s a little worse, naturally, against righties with a 4.09 xFIP that ideally we’d like to see under four but he still has a 22.9% strikeout rate. Personally, I think there’s more reward than risk here. I’m going to roll the dice in tournaments and hope the rest of the field takes the “wait and see” approach. The Angels opened as a very small -112 favorite which made it seem like Vegas was also skeptical of his health but it’s increased to -157 overnight. Hopefully, the health concerns scare people away and gives us a low priced, low owned Tyler Skaggs who then goes off and flirts with double-digit strikeouts tonight.

Dan Straily, MIA (vs. NYM) (DK: $6.6K, FD: $6.8K)

Straily is not a guy I use very often (or ever for that matter) but he makes sense in this spot today. The numbers aren’t pretty but there are a few things we can highlight. First, he’s at home today which is arguably the best pitcher’s park in all of baseball so right off the bat he gets a boost. The game is shaping up to have one of the lower totals on the entire slate and the Mets implied total opened at only four runs. The money line is a toss-up at the moment so Straily has a shot a picking up the win bonus as well. He’s gone from a -104 to a -108 overnight. Second, he’s had success in this matchup already this season. He’s 0-1 in two starts but he pitched fairly well in both of them despite having a loss. The first game, on 5/23, he went six innings allowing four hits and only one earned run with five strikeouts. In the second game, on 7/1, he went seven innings allowing five hits and just three earned runs while striking out seven. I’d be perfectly fine with a similar performance at this price tag. The killer for him is the walks but he has some strikeout upside with a 20% strikeout rate and 10.3% swinging strikes. His home/road splits are fairly dramatic. When on the road, he has a 5.24 xFIP with only 16.8% strikeouts and 13.2% walks. When at home, like he is today, the xFIP drops to 4.48 and the strikeout rate increases to 23.8% with an improved 9.4% walk rate. Between the ballpark, the history of success, and the Vegas lines, Straily is looking like a solid punt option in tournaments at his low price point. There’s nothing safe about him but if he can put together a similar pitching line to his last two starts against the Mets (maybe with a few less walks) there’s no reason he can’t exceed value on this slate.

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

If you’re new to the article, this is the section where I pick an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher to hit a long ball today. If there's a game at Coors Field, I always exclude them from this list because it's too obvious so just keep that in mind. Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential.

Jedd Gyorko, STL: 2B/3B (DK: $4K, FD: $2.9K)

A perennial lefty killer, Gyorko has a .316 ISO and 54.9% hard-hits against left-handed pitching this season. His opponent today, Danny Duffy, throws a fastball and a changeup to right-handed hitters which Gyorko has a .572 xISO against fastballs and .366 xISO against changeups. Duffy allows 43.6% fly balls and 35.2% hard contact and right-handed hitters have a .214 xISO against him this season.

Mookie Betts, BOS: OF (DK: $6K, FD: $5.3K)

I haven’t called a Mookie home run in a while. It’s not much fun. It’s too obvious I typically don’t like to point things out that everyone already knows. But, couple things are standing out for tonight’s game. For starters, he’s on fire right now. I’m not talking typical Mookie where he’s batting like .400 but nobody cares cause that’s what he always does. I’m talking he hit for the cycle two nights ago and then followed that up with a 3 for 4 night yesterday with 3 runs scored and 3 runs batted in. Second, he’ll face Yefry Ramirez who allows a .216 xISO to right-handed batters and also throws his fastball 40% of time. Betts has a .530 xISO, .560 xwOBA, and 88.5 mph average exit velocity against fastballs this season.

Jose Ramirez, CLE: 3B (DK: $5.8K, FD: $5K)

Similar to Mookie, a home run call with Ramirez isn’t very exciting but it makes a lot of sense in this spot today. Shields has allowed six home runs in his last three starts and 21 home runs on the season. He’s giving up 44% fly balls and 11.2% HR/FB with 34.9% hard contact. Opposing left-handed hitters have a .214 xISO against him. Ramirez has a massive .364 ISO and 39.3% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitchers.

Value Bats

Similar to the home run watch list, in this section, I’ll provide an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher who are priced in the value tier. If I can find someone under priced on both sites, I’ll highlight them. But in some cases it could be site specific.

Jeff McNeil, NYM: 2B (DK: $3.5, FD: $3.1K)

McNeil continues to impress in his short time in the majors and looks every bit the part of the future full-time second baseman for the Mets. He has a .394 wOBA, .200 ISO, and only 12% strikeouts in 50 plate appearances. He’s been particularly good against right-handed hitters, with a .216 ISO and .394 wOBA. He’ll face off with Dan Straily today, who is allowing a .186 xISO and .369 xwOBA to left-handed hitters.

Harrison Bader, STL: OF (DK: $4.2K, FD: $2.4K)

I love the Cardinals in general today which we’ll talk about shortly. Even better is they are very affordable, particularly on FanDuel. Harrison Bader especially stands out as a relatively inexpensive option that has a .197 ISO and .378 wOBA against lefties. Duffy has been solid as of late but he still struggles with right-handed batters. He has a 4.93 xFIP with nearly 10% walks and a 1.46 WHIP against right-handed hitters. He’s also allowing a .214 xISO and .358 xwOBA against them this season. Unfortunately, Bader will probably bat in the seventh spot in the lineup which isn’t ideal but it’s a small price to pay for the kind of upside he will bring us at this price today.

Tyler White, HOU: 1B (DK: $4.2K, FD: $2.3K)

White seems to have found a groove recently so this could be a good time to buy low (at least on FanDuel) if he keeps it going. In the month of August he has a .452 wOBA and .476 ISO including two doubles, a triple, and two home runs. He has a .222 ISO and .369 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. The downside here is his 30.7% strikeout rate so he’s only a tournament option with the floor being so low. But, he’s a great value bat with plenty of upside in a favorable matchup today. The nearly $2K price difference between the two sites should tell you all you need to know about how much of a value he is on FanDuel today.

Stacks on Stacks

In this section I'll highlight three of my favorite stacks. Generally speaking, I'll exclude the most obvious "chalk" stacks (such as when a game is at Coors Field) because you don't need me to tell you those teams are in play. The Dodgers, Rockies, Red Sox, and Indians are looking like the chalk stacks of the night. I have no issue with any of those teams if you want to stack them or use players from them. Let’s go a level deeper and see what other teams will be lower owned but have the upside we are looking for.

Milwaukee Brewers (vs. Julio Teheran)

Something’s definitely off with Teheran. He’s been hit hard his last three starts lasting only 4, 5, and 5.2 innings while giving up 7, 3, and 3 earned runs respectively. He’s also walked four batters in each of his last two starts and he’s had just 3, 4, and then a more reasonable 6 strikeouts. This doesn’t sound like much on the surface but what really concerns me is these games were against the Marlins (twice) and then the Mets who are both among the worst in baseball against right-handed pitching. Without that strikeout upside we are used to getting from Teheran, which is what makes him appealing as a GPP option sometimes, he becomes nothing more than a punching bag for us to stack against. He allows a .225 xISO and .377 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .210 xISO and .324 xwOBA to right-handed hitters. The Brewers have a bunch of power in their lineup that can exploit this starting with Eric Thames who has a .313 ISO, .365 wOBA, and 50.9% hard-hits. Jesus Aguilar is right behind him with his .312 ISO, .393 wOBA, and 45.3% hard-hit rate. Travis Shaw has a .288 ISO, .383 wOBA, and 41.9% hard-hits against right-handed pitching, and Christian Yelich has a .214 ISO, .384 wOBA, and 46.4% hard-hits. Those are the four priorities. You can also consider Ryan Braun with his .180 ISO, Erik Kratz as a cheap punt catcher with his 45.3% hard-hits, Lorenzo Cain has a .332 wOBA, and Jonathan Schoop who has a .231 ISO. Surprisingly, Mike Moustakas has only a .115 ISO and .310 wOBA against right-handed pitching so I’d put him at the top of the fade list in this stack. The Milwaukee implied total opened at 4.5 runs and has already skyrocketed to 4.9 runs. They are an interesting stack option today.

St. Louis Cardinals (vs. Danny Duffy)

I’ve been high on Duffy for the past several weeks but this is looking like a good spot to jump off the train. He’ll have to face an almost completely right-handed lineup today except for Matt Carpenter but he hits everything so it really doesn’t matter who the pitcher is against him. Duffy has a 4.93 xFIP with nearly 10% walks and a 1.46 WHIP against right-handed hitters. He’s also allowing a .214 xISO and .358 xwOBA against them this season. The Cardinals have several bats who love to face left-handed pitching. It all starts with Carpenter, despite the lefty versus lefty matchup, who has an impressive .316 ISO, .403 wOBA, and ridiculous 54.9% hard-hit rate. Remember at the beginning of the season when people thought this guy was finished? Next is Gyorko, who I already covered in the home run watch list. I didn’t mention his .423 wOBA in addition to the power numbers. Harrison Bader, who I highlighted as a value bat today, is a relatively inexpensive option and has a .197 ISO and .378 wOBA. Marcell Ozuna’s isolated slugging is down from last season at only .167, but he still has a solid .347 wOBA and 44.4% hard hit rate. Yairo Munoz, similar to Bader, is another inexpensive option. He smashes lefties with a .226 ISO and .333 wOBA. The two surprising ones on this team are Jose Martinez, who has just a .078 ISO and .311 wOBA this season but a career .223 ISO and .414 wOBA against lefties. I always tend to trust the larger sample size. Same with Paul DeJong who has only a .164 ISO and .297 wOBA this season but a .248 ISO and .349 wOBA in his career against lefties. I’m absolutely fine with including both of these guys in a full stack. The Cardinals implied run total opened at 4.7 runs and they should fly under the radar in tournaments tonight.

Los Angeles Angels (vs. Edwin Jackson)

This is my sneaky, under 5% ownership, stack of the night. No Mike Trout isn’t ideal but that should just further drive ownership away. With value pitching lacking on this slate I could see a world where people lean on Edwin Jackson against the “Troutless” Angels. I think this looks like a solid “get right” spot for this lineup against him. He gets hit hard on both sides of the plate, allowing a .203 xISO and .331 xwOBA against lefties and a .197 xISO and .323 xwOBA against righties. What really stood out to me is the performance against right-handed bats considering he’ll face quite a few in this Angels lineup today He has a 5.53 xFIP with only 15.2% strikeouts and a 1.41 WHIP. Even worse, he allows a massive 47.1% fly ball rate with 16.9% HR/FB which has led to a 2.33 HR/9 against right-handed hitters this season. The Angels, meanwhile, are sixth in the league against right-handed pitching. They have a .184 ISO, .330 wOBA, and 112 wRC+. Ohtani has a .340 ISO and .431 wOBA, Upton has a .218 ISO and .362 wOBA, and Calhoun has a .210 ISO and 40.9% hard-hits. You can also consider Albert Pujols with his .170 ISO and 41.1% hard—its, Andrelton Simmons and his .336 wOBA and ridiculous 5% strikeout rate, and Francisco Arcia who only has a small sample size but has already flashed plenty of upside with a .333 ISO and .395 wOBA. Several of the bats in this lineup profile very well against Jackson’s pitch types which adds to their appeal. I wouldn’t go crazy here but in a large field GPP where you really need to differentiate yourself from the field there is some power in this lineup that could get you there with very little resistance. Their implied total is in the middle of the pack today at 4.3 runs. I’ll be watching to see if there is any movement throughout the day.

The Bullpen Report

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @glandry if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@GP_Landry).

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