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Written by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GP_Landry on Twitter

Man, I feel like I blink and another week of this summer has gone by. Don’t get me wrong, I’m excited for football season, which is right around the corner, but I’m not quite ready for summer to end yet. Tonight brings us a nearly full 14-game slate to talk about. Unlike most of the slates this week that were heavy on bats and lacking pitching, today brings us quite a few pitchers that I think are interesting. I’ll highlight my favorites below but I definitely encourage you to take a deeper look on some of the arms today. I had several as options to use in my initial research and then narrowed down the list based on matchup, price, etc. This also doesn’t mean there aren’t any bats to use. There are still plenty. We have a game at Coors Field today and currently five teams with an implied total over five runs. I’m not seeing any rain concerns at this time of the day but that doesn’t mean the forecast won’t change. There are plenty of hot weather games today with Kansas City standing out at 94 degrees. There’s potential for double-digit winds blowing out in Chicago but it’s also much cooler there than it is in other places, so this won’t provide us with any real advantage. Alright, enough small talk, let’s see what we have on this slate tonight.

High Priced Pitching

Gerrit Cole, HOU (vs. SEA) (DK: $12.5K, FD: $10.5K)

Welp, things did not go well for Verlander last night, but that’s baseball for you. He had an off night and Seattle has a competent enough offense to make him pay. On to today where, after an extremely hot start to the season with five double-digit strikeout games in his first seven starts, Cole has leveled off a bit down the stretch. He has, however, continued to be extremely consistent even if the upside isn’t quite what it was early on. He’s never pitched less than five innings in any of his 23 starts this season. He’s had eight strikeouts or more in 17 of his 23 starts including his last five starts in a row, which makes his floor incredibly strong. It’s the ceiling that I’m less excited about. He’s not pitching deep enough into games to make me confident he can exceed the return we need for his cost today. I mentioned this concern with Verlander yesterday but the difference with Verlander is he had three double-digit strikeout games in his last four starts, where Cole has only had one in his last sixteen starts. Still, he’s got a solid 2.89 SIERA, 35.1% strikeouts, and 13.7% swinging strikes with an elite 0.99 WHIP. He’s filthy to left-handed batters with a 2.69 xFIP, 40.5% strikeout rate and a 0.97 WHIP. They have only a .156 xISO and .261 xwOBA against him. He’s not as strong to righties but he’s still extremely good. He has a 3.37 xFIP, 29.8% strikeout rate, and a 1.01 WHIP. They have a .185 xISO and .319 xwOBA against him. He’s the second largest favorite on the board today at -206 and the Mariners have an implied total of just 3.1 runs. I prefer him in cash over tournaments but there’s always a chance he pops off one of those 12+ strikeout games, so if you find a way to make him work in a tournament lineup that doesn’t kill your upside, I’m not against it.

“Nasty Nate” Eovaldi, BOS (@BAL) (DK: $9.7K, FD: $8.7K)

I’m a believer now. It’s like somebody flipped a switch on this guy. Maybe it has something to do with the fact that he’s playing in meaningful games for the first time in his career. It’s hard to know for sure. Here in Boston, one of the biggest tests a new member of the team has to go through is how he performs in his first game against the Yankees. Eovaldi passed that test in his last start with flying colors. He went eight innings, allowing just three hits, zero earned runs and striking out four. His fastball, on his last pitch of the game in the eighth inning, reached 100.4 mph. Going beyond his time with Boston, he’s been consistent all season. Aside from one game against the Twins where he got rocked, he’s gone at least six innings in nine of twelve starts. He occasionally flashes some strikeout upside, having a few games this season with eight or more, but he’s mostly in that 4-6 range. Ideally, I’d like to see more strikeouts considering his price tag today, but that actually might not be an issue against Baltimore, who strikes out 24.1% of the time to right-handed pitching. They have some power in their lineup with a .168 ISO but still a very low .305 wOBA and 90 wRC+. The numbers for Eovaldi are approaching elite levels with his 3.59 SIERA, 22.6% strikeout rate, and 10.8% swinging strike rate. The WHIP is an impressive 0.89 which is helped by the fact that he only walks 3.3% of batters he faces. Can you believe Boston got this guy for Jalen Beeks straight up? Beeks has been rocked in all of his appearances so far. Starting to look like highway robbery. Unsurprisingly, Boston opened as a heavy -178 favorite that has already increased to -190. The Orioles implied run total is a low 3.8 runs. Eovalidi is cash game playable today and I like him for tournaments as well, considering his matchup.

Value Pitching

Zach Eflin, PHI (@SDP) (DK: $8.5K, FD: $8.5K)

Part of my research process each day is I go pitcher by pitcher, looking at the advanced stats, game logs, splits, etc. Then I put it all together and come up with a price. I don’t look at the prices of any of them until after I’ve gone through each one and sorted out which ones I’m interested in using, which ones I plan to avoid, and which ones I’m looking to stack against. I had Eflin, with his numbers and in this matchup, pegged at $9.5K on DraftKings and $8.5K on FanDuel. I was pleasantly surprised to see that he’s $8.5K on both sites today, making him $1000 too cheap, in my opinion, on DraftKings. This is a great matchup, against the Padres, who are the second worst team in baseball against right-handed pitching. They have a .123 ISO, .285 wOBA, and 80 wRC+. San Diego strikes out 25.8% of the time against right-handed pitching. Eflin, meanwhile, has a 3.86 SIERA, 22.5% strikeouts, and 10.2% swinging strikes. He keeps the walks to a minimum, with just 5.2%, and the WHIP is strong at 1.11. His issue has always been against left-handed batters. He has a 4.29 xFIP and is allowing a .249 xISO and .356 xwOBA against them. But outside of maybe Reyes, there’s not a left-handed hitter in this lineup that I’m afraid of, so that washes out any concerns I might have. He’s much stronger against right-handed batters, with a 3.72 xFIP and 22.5% strikeouts. He only walks 5.1% of righties and has an excellent 1.03 WHIP. Opposing right-handed hitters have a .117 xISO and .267 xwOBA against him. He’s a comfortable -137 favorite (which has increased after opening at -128) and the Padres have a very low 3.7 implied run total. I don’t mind him at all for cash games in this matchup. If you were to pair him with Eovaldi, you’re looking at $4K per bat left to spend, which is more than feasible on this full slate. He’s got a lot of upside as well against this Padres team, so he’s firmly in the conversation for tournaments, though I suspect he could be popular.

Derek Holland, SFG (vs. PIT) (DK: $7.6K, FD: $7K)

Holland has been, dare I say, pretty solid recently. I’m not sure if he’s just figured something out or the time he’s spent in the bullpen is doing him some good, but in his last ten starts he’s allowed just three earned runs or less. We have a little history to look at here, as he faced this same Pittsburgh team earlier this season, on 5/13, and went 6.1 innings, allowing four hits, zero earned runs, and getting seven strikeouts. I’d be more than happy with a similar performance today. The Pirates rank 17th against left-handed pitching with a .164 ISO, 313 wOBA, 95 wRC+. They strikeout more against lefties (21.9%) than they do against righties. Holland has a respectable 4.02 SIERA with 24.9% strikeouts and 10.9% swinging strikes. He could use some improvement against lefties, with a 4.18 xFIP and only 15.1% strikeouts. But the good news is that left-handed hitters only have a .087 xISO and .273 xwOBA against him. Plus, he pitches in the worst park in baseball for left-handed power, which helps him get away with more than he probably should. He’s been really good against right-handed batters with a 4.02 xFIP and a very high 26.7% strikeout rate. The downside here is the .248 xISO and .364 xwOBA he allows to right-handed hitters. His numbers are odd. He can’t strikeout lefties to save his life but he manages to prevent them from doing any significant damage against him. He’s the polar opposite against righties where he has a ton of strikeout upside but he also gets crushed when he does allow contact to happen. This makes him a very volatile option. So just to be clear, this is a tournament only recommendation. The Giants are currently -133 favorites and the Pirates have only a 3.8 implied run total.

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

If you’re new to the article, this is the section where I pick an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher to hit a long ball today. If there's a game at Coors Field, I always exclude them from this list because it's too obvious. So just keep that in mind. Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential.

David Peralta, ARI: OF (DK: $5.5K, FD: $3.8K)

Huge park upgrade for the Diamondbacks today going from Chase Field, currently 18th in home runs allowed, to Great American “Smallpark” which ranks second. DeSclafani gets obliterated by left-handed hitters allowing a .317 xISO and 86.7 mph average exit velocity. Peralta has a .249 ISO and a 48.7% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season. DeSclafani throws a fastball 42.8% of the time and a slider 23.3% of the time, with a couple of other pitches mixed in there far less often. Peralta hits those pitch types well, including a .191 xISO against fastballs, and a .436 xISO against sliders.

Xander Bogaerts, BOS: SS (DK: $4.7K, $3.8K)

Bogaerts gets a nice matchup today against Dylan Bundy, who gets hit hard by right-handed bats. The one thing Bundy does have going for him is a high 30.7% strikeout rate, which is one of the reasons I like Bogaerts today, as he only strikes out 17.6% against right-handed pitching. He also has a .254 ISO and 38.7% hard-hit rate. Bundy allows a massive 23.2% HR/FB on 44.5% fly balls which has resulted in 2.23 HR/9 against righties. They have a .206 xISO against him this season. Forgot to mention, Bundy has allowed the most home runs (27) in the league this season.

Miguel Andujar, NYY: 3B (DK: $4.1K, FD: $3.6K)

Andujar finds himself in a good spot today against the left-handed Mike Minor, who has a low 19.7% strikeout rate but allows 45.4% fly balls and 40.04% hard contact to right-handed bats. Andujar has a .241 ISO and 34.9% hard-hits against lefties. Minor throws a fastball and a slider most often to right-handed hitters and Andujar has some power against those pitch types, including a .254 xISO against fastballs and a .252 xISO against sliders.

Value Bats

Similar to the home run watch list, in this section, I’ll provide an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder or catcher who are priced in the value tier. If I can find someone under priced on both sites, I’ll highlight them. But in some cases it could be site specific.

Logan Morrison, MIN: 1B (DK: $3.5K, FD: $2.4K)

Is it me or does it seem like Logan Morrison is a solid value option on almost every slate? He’s not the safest play on the board but there is a ton of power upside for this price tag. He has a .208 ISO, a 41.2% hard-hit rate, and a very high 50.8% fly ball rate against right-handed pitching. His wOBA is low, at just .289, but the BABIP is also extremely low at just .167, so he’s hitting the ball better than what we are seeing on paper. He is in the midst of a little cold streak at the moment, going just 3 for his last 20, but this is a good spot to buy low on him.

Franmil Reyes, SDP: OF (DK: $3.4K, FD: $2.7K)

I mentioned earlier that Zach Eflin’s weakness is left-handed batters. While Reyes doesn’t scare me enough to avoid using Eflin today, he still makes for an excellent value play batting clean-up for San Diego. He has a .242 ISO, .330 wOBA and 41.4% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitchers. He’s on absolute fire right now, going 9 for his last 16 with three home runs, a .800 wOBA, and a .733 ISO while striking out just 12.5% of the time. He’s an outstanding option in cash games today if you need some extra money to pay up at pitcher.

Yairo Munoz, STL: SS (DK: $3.8K, FD: $2.4K)

Munoz doesn’t hit for any power but he still carries a solid .335 wOBA and 39.1% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. He gets to face Burch Smith today, who does have some strikeout upside against righties, but also a poor 1.41 WHIP, 45.7% fly ball rate, and massive 48.8% hard contact. Opposing right-handed hitters have a .235 xISO and a .368 xwOBA against him this season. Smith throws fastballs 64% of the time, despite allowing a .272 xISO and .402 xwOBA against that pitch type. Munoz hits fastballs very well with a .237 xISO and .405 xwOBA.

Stacks on Stacks

In this section I'll highlight three of my favorite stacks. Generally speaking, I'll exclude the most obvious "chalk" stacks (such as when a game is at Coors Field) because you don't need me to tell you those teams are in play. Be sure to keep an eye on the Vegas lines throughout the day as line movement can always shift interest in stacks.

Arizona Diamondbacks (vs. Anthony DeSclafani)

DeSclafani gets smashed by left-handed hitters and he’s one of my favorite pitchers to stack against, especially when we have a left-handed heavy lineup, and he’s pitching at home in arguably the best ballpark in baseball for left-handed power. We cross all those boxes off today as Arizona can go almost entirely left-handed with their lineup with the exception of Paul Goldschmidt and A.J Pollock. DeSclafani has some rough numbers in general, with a 4.39 SIERA, only 19.8% strikeouts, and a 44.8% hard contact rate. It’s incredibly bad against left-handed bats with a 5.35 xFIP and only 15.8% strikeouts. What’s worse (or I suppose better if you are stacking against him) is that he allows a ridiculous 25.6% HR/FB on 45.7% fly balls with 43.8% hard contact. This has led to a 3.41 HR/9. As far as the Diamondbacks go, the priorities start with David Peralta, who we already talked about in the home run section today. He has a .249 ISO, .405 wOBA, and 48.7% hard-hit rate this season. Pollock and Goldschmidt are next, despite not being left-handed hitters. You’re never going to leave them out of an Arizona stack. Pollock has a .235 ISO and .372 wOBA while Goldschmidt has a .216 ISO and .368 wOBA against right-handed pitching. I’d say those three are the core players here. Then we have some lesser known intriguing lefties we can mix in. Descalso has a .188 ISO and .359 wOBA, Escobar has a .174 ISO and .368 wOBA, and Alex Avila has a massive 54.8% hard-hit rate and I love him his a punt catcher tonight. Arizona’s implied total opened at 4.9 runs and has already climbed to 5.1 runs. I see this team being the lowest owned of the teams of Coors Field, the Yankees and the Red Sox today, which makes them my favorite stack, as I believe they can keep pace tonight.

Boston Red Sox (vs. Dylan Bundy)

The Red Sox were killing Dylan Bundy the last time they faced him. If I remember correctly it was 5-0 in the third and Benintendi and Martinez had hit back to back home runs. Then the rain came and the game was postponed before it became official, therefore wiping out any stats that had occurred. Even if those stats never happened on paper, the DFS Community (and the North) remembers. Bundy has a ton of strikeout upside but that’s really all he has going for him. He gives up a lot of fly balls (45.6%) of which, 17.5% end up as home runs. He’s allowed the most long balls in the league at 27. Opposing left-handed hitters have a .284 xISO and .402 xwOBA against him while opposing right-handed hitters have a .206 xISO (though a low .291 xwOBA). The Red Sox are the best team in baseball against right-handed pitching with a .203 ISO, .348 wOBA, and 118 wRC+. They are also the best team to overcome Bundy’s strikeout upside because they have the lowest strikeout rate in baseball against right-handed pitching at just 18.7%. If you take away Bundy’s ability to get some quick outs when he needs them, the results could be catastrophic. As far as the individual batters to stack are concerned, it’s really the top six or so as usual. Betts and Martinez are in constant competition for being the best available bat on the slate. Benintendi has a .213 ISO and .409 wOBA against right-handed pitching. I already talked about Bogaerts in the home run section of this article. I imagine Mitch Moreland gets the start today against the righty, but either he or Steve Pearce are fine options. Pearce has been on fire recently and Moreland is beginning to heat up with a .367 wOBA and .333 ISO in the month of August. Rafael Devers returned to the lineup last night and picked up right where he left off, going 2 for 5 with a home run and two runs batted in. He has a .215 ISO and and .332 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Boston’s implied total opened at 5.2 runs and has increased to 5.3 runs overnight.

New York Yankees (vs. Mike Minor)

The Bronx Bombers have a date with Mike Minor and the Texas Rangers tonight. While the Red Sox are the best team in baseball against right-handed pitching, the Yankees are the best team in baseball against left-handed pitching. They have a .221 ISO, .353 wOBA, and 123 wRC+. Minor enters this game in good form after two strong starts in a row where he didn’t allow more than two earned runs in either and had six strikeouts against the Orioles and eight strikeouts against the Astros. I think his luck changes tonight, particularly against these power right-handed bats in the Yankee lineup. Minor is allowing 12.9% HR/FB on 45.4% fly balls and 40.4% hard contact. Opposing righties have a .284 xISO and .371 xwOBA against him. This puts Giancarlo Stanton firmly in the discussion for the top overall bat on the slate today. His numbers against left-handed pitching are absurd (and actually down this season) with a .349 ISO, .455 wOBA, and nearly 60% hard hit rate (59.7). That’s with over a 100 at-bat sample size. Insane. Hicks, Torres, and Andujar complete the priority batters here. Hicks has a .333 ISO and .381 wOBA while Torres has a .278 ISO and .400 wOBA. Anjujar is one of my favorite bats on the board today and we talked about him already in the home run section. After these guys, things get less interesting but there are still some usable pieces here. If Austin Romine starts today, he has a .174 ISO and .329 wOBA and he’ll be a cheap catcher option. Greg Bird, despite the lefty on lefty matchup, is in play with his .171 ISO and .354 wOBA against lefties this season. Gregorius has a respectable .321 wOBA but you certainly don’t need him today. Please don’t chase Neil Walker points. Yes, he had an awesome game last night but this isn’t going to become a regular occurrence. The Yankees have the highest implied total on the board as of now (including Coors Field) at 5.5 runs.

The Bullpen Report

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