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Written by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GP_Landry on Twitter

Halfway through the week and we've got a couple of small slates to talk about today. On DraftKings we have a five-game early slate that excludes the game starting at noon EST. On FanDuel we have a four-game early slate that includes that game at noon EST. When the slates are mixed up like this it makes it a little difficult to cover but I'll do my best. The main slate is six-games on both sites. I'm going to skip the introduction today cause I want to get this out for you guys quickly to be sure you have enough time to read it before the early games get started. Keep an eye out on the lineups today a lot of players switched teams before the deadline and it's unclear who will be available for games today. Some value could absolutely open up if bench players get the start while the newly acquired players are still getting settled. Good luck!

Early Slate Pitching

Sonny Gray, NYY (vs. BAL) (DK: $8.5K, FD: $8.5K)

To be honest with you, I expected Gray to be more expensive than this. He’s dominated the Orioles this season with a 3-0 record in three starts, going six innings in each start and allowing a total of just four earned runs (three in the first start, one in the second start, and zero in the third). The strikeouts have grown with each game as well. He had four in the first one, six in the second, and eight in the third. Today, his fourth matchup against this team this season, will be his best one yet as Baltimore will now be without both Manny Machado AND Jonathan Schoop, who was traded away minutes before the deadline to the Milwaukee Brewers yesterday. As if this team wasn’t already bad enough against right-handed pitching with a 24.1% strikeout rate, a .300 wOBA, 87 wRC+ and only 31.3% hard-hits now you took away two of their best bats. Schoop and Machado actually had two of the lowest strikeout rates against righties on this team as well so that should only increase Gray’s potential to rack up some strikeouts in this spot. His splits between right-handed and left-handed hitters are fairly identical. Against lefties he has a 4.19 xFIP, 20.6% strikeouts while allowing a .155 xISO and a .361 xwOBA. Against righties he has a 4.27 xFIP with 22% strikeouts while allowing a .164 xISO and .310 xwOBA. The Yankees are a heavy -269 favorite and the Orioles, unsurprisingly, have the lowest implied total of the entire day, not just the early slate, at 3.40. You can fire up Gray today in both cash games and tournaments and I’m fine with using him as your SP2 if you want to spend up a little at pitcher or as your SP1 if you’d rather pay down with your second pitcher spot. His has an excellent floor/ceiling combination in this matchup as he’s already proven several times this season.  

Sal Romano, CIN (@DET) (DK: $5.2K, FD: $6K)

Speaking of teams that are bad against right-handed pitching, the Tigers have absolutely plummeted over the past month. They were always below average but now they currently rank 29th out of 30 teams. They have just a .134 ISO, .297 wOBA and a 77 wRC+ (I didn’t even know wRC+ went that low). On top of that, one of their only left-handed hitters, and one of their best hitters against right-handed pitching, is now a member of the Cleveland Indians. I’m talking about Leonys Martin who was traded before the deadline yesterday afternoon. That’s yet another downgrade to this lineup against right-handed pitching. There is nothing sexy about rostering Sal Romano but he is very cheap, he’ll likely go low owned even on this small slate, and if there were ever a time to use him this would be it (this sounds eerily similar to my James Shields write-up yesterday). Romano has an uncomfortable 4.86 SIERA with only 16.2% strikeouts. Most of those poor numbers come against left-handed hitters where he has a 5.38 xFIP, 14.5% strikeouts, and 11.1% walks. Against right-handed hitters, which he’ll see mostly today, things are definitely better (even if not great). His ERA and xFIP are nearly identical at 3.92 and 4.09, respectively. The strikeouts are still low but they do increase slightly to 17.8% and the walk rate drops to 6.3%. Again, nothing here to write home about but I do think he could hold his own against a near entirely right-handed lineup like the one he’ll see today. What’s really standing out to me about Romano is actually the pitch type profiles. Romano’s two main pitches, to both sides of the plate, are a two-seam fastball and a slider. I’ll give you a guess of who you think is the best hitter on Detroit against both of those pitch types. Hint: He doesn’t play for the Tigers anymore. That’s right! Leonys Martin. He’s the only player that has an above average expected ISO and wOBA against both pitch types, and now he’s gone. After him, you have a bunch of guys with very mixed results and high swinging strike rates, particularly against the slider. I can’t say this is a safe play but I can say that Romano’s floor/ceiling combo is as good as it’s going to get for him in this matchup tonight. He’s a sneaky SP2 in tournaments. I mean, if Homer Bailey can do it, can’t pretty much anyone?

Main Slate Pitching

Rich Hill, LAD (vs. MIL) (DK: $9.6K, FD: $10K)

It’s hard to argue with Hill’s results in the month of July. He’s 3-1 in four starts with a 3.02 xFIP and 31 strikeouts in 26 innings pitched. One of those starts includes a game against this Brewers team where he went six innings, allowing five hits and one earned run with nine strikeouts. Milwaukee has been bad against left-handed pitching all season. They have just a .151 ISO, .300 wOBA, and 84 wRC+. Both of the bats they added at the deadline are not going to help them with this problem. Schoop has just a .133 ISO, .301 wOBA, and 25.3% hard-hit rate against lefties. Moustakas has a .147 ISO, and .298 wOBA against left-handed pitching. Not only did they not improve I actually think they got worse. I can’t understand the moves the Brewers made at the deadline. The one thing they needed to address was pitching and they didn’t do that. Instead they brought in two bats and now they have this cluster of players that are going to have to play positions they aren’t used to playing in order to make it fit. Shaw at second base and it sounds like Schoop will get time at shortstop? I don’t get it, but that’s a conversation for another day. Back to Rich Hill. We like his matchup, and we like his recent results. What about a larger sample size? He has a 3.79 SIERA with 26.2% strikeouts and a solid 81.4% LOB% this season. He’s fantastic against right-handed hitters with a 3.28 xFIP and 28.8% strikeouts. His numbers against lefties are good right now but they do suggest a lot of regression. He has an unsustainable 0.53 ERA but a 5.68 xFIP and the strikeout rate drops all the way to 19%. His career numbers against lefties, however, are a little more encouraging. The xFIP is a little high at 4.50 but the strikeout rate is much better at 24.1%. I’d trust the career numbers more than what we’ve seen so far this season. He’s a very comfortable -160 as of this writing (the line opened at -153) and the Brewers have the second lowest implied total of the entire day at just 3.6 runs (slightly better than Baltimore). He’ll be popular, but with good reason, and he makes for a fine SP1 in cash games and tournaments on this main slate.

Cole Hamels, CHC (@PIT) (DK: $7.9K, $7.7K)

Hamels may very well end up being the steal of the trade deadline for the Cubs. I get that he’s not nearly the pitcher he’d been in the past but he still has a lot of upside and the fact that you are taking him out of the American League and putting him in the National League is automatically an upgrade. In my analysis of Hamels for today something that stood out to me is his drastic home/away splits. He was getting shelled when playing at home in Texas. But, who wouldn’t get shelled at home, in the summer months, in Texas? It’s basically Coors Field of the American League. He has a 4.50 xFIP, a 1.51 WHIP, 20.1% strikeouts, and he’s allowing 2.44 HR/9 when at home. On the road, however, we see incredible improvement including a 3.83 xFIP, 1.23 WHIP, 25.6% strikeouts, and only 1.14 HR/9. Today, Hamels gets a huge park upgrade with the Cubs on the road in pitcher friendly PNC Park. The Pirates are also a little banged up at the moment with both Jordan Bell and Corey Dickerson on the disabled list. They rolled out a pretty ugly lineup last night against Jon Lester (although Lester didn’t pitcher very well) and I’m assuming we’ll see something very similar today. This would mean only one left-handed bat (Gregory Polanco) and then all right-handed bats. This is great news though because Hamels has reverse splits. He’s awful against lefties with a 5.16 xFIP, only 15.1% strikeouts, 13.7% walks, and a 1.83 WHIP. He’s much, much better against righties where the xFIP drops down to a respectable 4.02, the strikeout rate increases to a very solid 24%, the walks drop to only 7.5%, and the WHIP decreases to 1.30. Let’s take a minute and sum all this information up real quick. We have a pitcher who struggled at his previous home park but did very well when on the road, pitching on the road today in a very pitcher friendly park, against a National League team with no DH and several injuries. Plus, that team will roll out a very right-handed heavy lineup and Hamels just happens to have reverse splits and significantly better run prevention and strikeout upside against right-handed hitters.  I’m loving this spot for Hamels today and I think he’s under priced on both sites given all the factors I just laid out. I really like him in tournaments but I don’t mind the idea of using him as an SP2 in cash games on DraftKings either.  

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

If you’re new to the article, this is the section where I pick an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder/catcher to hit a long ball today. Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential.

Early Slate

Yan Gomes, CLE: C (DK: $3.9K, FD: $2.4K)

He's a steal on FanDuel today at his $2.4K salary but I honestly like him on both sites. He gets a matchup against left-hander Adalberto Mejia from the Twins. Mejia allows a .246 xISO with nearly 40% fly balls to right-handed batters. Gomes has a massive .253 ISO and 50% hard-hit rate against left-handed pitching this season. He has one of the best FP/PA delta's today at 0.67. Even on FanDuel, where you don't need to play a catcher, I'm planning to have heavy exposure hoping it will help me differentiate my lineups on this smaller slate. 

Nelson Cruz, SEA: OF (DK: $4.7K, FD: $3.6K)

I don’t care that Dallas Keuchel only allows a .137 xISO to right-handed hitters. I also don’t care that he has a 52.2% groundball rate and only allows 28.7% hard contact. I don’t even care that Cruz doesn’t match up very well with Keuchel’s pitch types.  This is Nelson Cruz facing a left-handed pitcher. He has a .369 ISO and 49.2% hard-hit rate this season. It doesn’t matter who the pitcher is, if they are left-handed, Cruz has home run upside and we should have exposure.  

Jose Ramirez, CLE: 3B (DK: $5.9K, FD: $5.1K)

I'm sorry to suggest two players from the same team but Cleveland is standing out on the early slate. I mentioned how Mejia allows a .246 xISO with nearly 40% fly balls to right-handed batters. Ramirez, who is a switch hitter, has a .232 ISO and 42% hard-hit rate when he bats from the right-side. What I love about this particular matchup is Ramirez only strikes out 10% of the time against lefties while Mejia only strikes out 13.3% of the lefties he faces. Having to pitch to contact against a guy like Ramirez who never strikes out and has a ton of power is just asking for trouble.  

Main Slate

Anthony Rizzo, CHC: 1B (DK: $4.9K, FD: $4K)

Kingham’s struggles with lefties where on full display recently when he got shelled by a lowly (but left-handed heavy) Mets lineup in his last start. He’s giving up a .247 xISO along with 40.6% fly balls, 20.5% HR/FB, and 2.57 HR/9 against left-handed hitters this season. The puts Rizzo firmly on the home run watch list today. He has a .210 ISO and 36.1% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season. He also profiles well against fastballs and changeups which are what Kingham throws most often. Rizzo has a .199 xISO against fastballs and a .270 xISO against changeups.  

Yasiel Puig, LAD: OF (DK: $4.3K, FD: $3K)

It’s possible that Puig doesn’t play today. It’s hard to predict this Dodgers lineup with all the depth they have. You would think that Puig would only play on nights when they face a left-handed pitcher but I’m not buying this for two reasons. First, he’s played the last two nights in a row against both a lefty and a righty. Second, Puig is actually better against right-handed pitching with a .241 ISO and 40% hard-hit rate. I’ll even add in a third point that Chase Anderson has reverse splits and is actually worse against right-handed batters, allowing a very high .290 xISO. Keep an eye on the lineup. If Puig is out but Matt Kemp plays I’d be okay pivoting to him as well. Puig stands out more on paper to me but Kemp is obviously having a great season. Either one of them have a good chance at a long ball today in this matchup.  

Jedd Gyorko, STL: 2B/3B (DK: $3.9K, FD: $2.8K)

The man who makes his career out of smashing left-handed pitching gets a shot at doing exactly that tonight. Gyorko will face Kyle Freeland, who admittedly is pitching quite well this season, only allowing a .163 xISO and just 1.03 HR/9 to right-handed batters. His weakness though is how low his strikeout rate drops, going from over 25% to lefties all the way down to 16% against lefties. In reality, however, the pitcher analysis doesn’t matter as much in this spot. When you have a player like Gyorko, who has a .306 ISO, .447 wOBA, and 45.3% hard-hit rate against lefties and is priced almost in the value-tier on both sites, you play him.  

Value Bats

Similar to the home run watch list, in this section I’ll provide an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder who are priced in the value tier. If I can find someone under priced on both sites, I’ll highlight them. But in some cases it could be site specific.

Early Slate

Preston Tucker, CIN: OF (DK: $3.5K, FD: $2.1K)

Tucker came over from Atlanta yesterday in the trade that sent Adam Duvall to the Braves. I assume the Reds will go ahead and plug Tucker into their lineup right away which makes him an excellent value on both sites. He’ll take on Mike Fiers, who allows a .255 xISO and .362 xwOBA with only 17.1% strikeouts to left-handed hitters. In 103 at-bats this season, Tucker has a .194 ISO and .337 wOBA against right-handed pitching. I’m excited to see this kid get some more playing time.   

Yangervis Solarte, TOR: 2B/3B (DK: $3.4K, FD: $2.9K)

Solarte is one of the few Blue Jays bats whose situation improves when they face a left-handed pitcher. Fellow switch hitters Justin Smoak and Kendrys Morales both would prefer to hit as a left-handed hitter but Solarte would prefer to hit right-handed. He has a .231 ISO with 32.2% hard-hits and only strikes out 11.8% of the time to righties. Manaea, meanwhile, has an ugly 4.20 xFIP with only 17.1% strikeouts while giving up over 40% hard contact.  

Yulieski Gurriel, HOU: 1B (DK: $3.3K, FD: $2.5K)

Gurriel is really, really cold right now but value batters on this early slate are hard to find so he’s standing out as the best option at a corner infield position. If we focus on the positives he currently hits in the middle of the lineup for the defending World Series champs with Altuve and Correa both on the shelf at the moment. He doesn’t have much power with only a .109 ISO but he does have a .321 wOBA and he only strikes out 12.8% of the time. These are good numbers for a guy we aren’t breaking the bank on to get into our rosters. LeBlanc is allowing a .203 xISO and .333 xwOBA to right-handed hitters this season. Gurriel should have more than enough room to reach value today.  

Main Slate

Francisco Arcia, LAA: C (DK: $3.4K, FD: $2.3K)

We better jump on this train while we can still afford it cause if he keeps this up he’ll be $5K or more before the end of next week. I’m typically not one to rely on small sample sizes but value bats are lacking on this main slate. Arcia, in three games so far in the big leagues, is 5 for 9 with a 1.000 ISO, .904 wOBA, and a 1.625 SLG. He has two home runs and ten runs batted in during those three games. None of this is sustainable but he’s clearly shown he can get it done at his level even if those numbers begin to regress. The scouting reports I read about him suggest he’s the real deal as well. I’m going to buy here while I still can.

Alex Gordon, KC: OF (DK: $3.2K, FD: $2.3K)

Gordon is on the punt radar today with this cheap price tag. Both pitchers in this game are pretty awful so despite two weak offenses it still has a total that opened at 9.5 runs and could get over 10 runs before lock on the main slate. Gordon has a slightly below average .317 wOBA against right-handed pitching but a solid 40% hard-hit rate. He’ll square off with Dylan Covey who has below average strikeouts and allows a .356 xwOBA and 85.7 mph average exit velocity against left-handed hitters.

Ji-Man Choi, TB: 1B (DK: $3.6K, FD: $2.4K)

Choi continues to be undervalued on FanDuel despite his increased playing time since being traded to the Rays. He’ll face Nick Tropeano today who allows 20.6% HR/FB, 43.2% hard contact, and 2.05 HR/9 against left-handed hitters. They have a .241 xISO and .377 xwOBA with an 85.6 mph average exit velocity against him. Choi currently has a solid .349 wOBA against right-handed pitching. He makes for a solid punt play on FanDuel for the main slate if you need him.  

Stacks on Stacks 🥞

Early Slate

Cincinnati Reds (vs. Mike Fiers)

The Yankees and Indians will be the popular stacks on the early slate so let me introduce an alternative option. The Reds will be taking on Mike Fiers, who’s allowing a .255 xISO and .362 xwOBA to lefties and a .229 xISO and .329 xwOBA to righties this season. I’m curious to see what this lineup will look like as it has some new faces recently between the Scott Schebler and Jesse Winkler injuries and then trading away Adam Duvall yesterday. My hope is that newly acquired Preston Tucker gets plugged into the lineup as he makes for an outstanding, and very cheap, option today with his .194 ISO and .337 wOBA against right-handed pitching. Tucker Barnhart profiles very well against Mike Fiers and both of these guys together would start you off with a super inexpensive but high upside stack. After them, the usual suspects are in play. Eugenio Suarez is the core of this group. He has a .256 ISO, .364 wOBA, and 51.1% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season. Scooter Gennett has a .193 ISO, and .385 wOBA with 38.7% hard-hits. Finally, the always reliable Joey Votto, whose power is down with only a .161 ISO, but is still one of the best hitters in baseball with his .403 wOBA against righties. It would be nice if these guys were bunched together in the order to make them easier to stack. They fill in some difficult positions (Barnhart- catcher, Gennett – second base) that would make it easier to pair with another stack if you wanted. Their implied run total opened at 4.4 runs and it’s up to 4.6 runs overnight. Keep an eye on this team today.  

Main Slate

Los Angeles Dodgers (vs. Chase Anderson)

This Dodgers lineup is officially ridiculous. The one remaining hole they had left at second base will now be plugged in with Brian Dozier. That’s a pretty good fallback plan. They have depth, players who can play multiple positions, they have power on both sides of the plate, and they are basically a matchup nightmare for any pitcher trying to get through this order. Chase Anderson will be the first person to experience this horror. He has a 4.72 SIERA that’s over a run higher than his 3.69 ERA and below average 19.3% strikeouts. He has reverse splits so right-handed hitters have a .290 xISO and .378 xwOBA against him while left-handed hitters have a .137 xISO and .314 xwOBA. It seems like teams don’t pay much attention to reverse splits so I assume the Dodgers will roll out a more traditional left-handed heavy lineup against the right-handed pitcher. That’s fine, the lefties are still in play, but I would prioritize the right-handed bats if you can. I really like Taylor (.192 ISO, .340 wOBA), Machado (.222 ISO, .333 wOBA), Kemp (.345 wOBA), and Puig (.240 ISO, .373 wOBA). Although Anderson is better against left-handed hitting that definitely doesn’t mean you can’t use any against him. It’s really hard to ignore some of these numbers including Muncy (.332 ISO, .399 wOBA), Pederson (.291 ISO, .399 wOBA), Grandal (.262 ISO, .382 wOBA), and Bellinger (.226 ISO, .341 wOBA). This whole lineup, top to bottom, is in play. We’ll just need to see who actually makes it and what the order is today. I didn’t even mention Brian Dozier, Justin Turner, or Kike Hernandez.    

What stack do you like today? Head over to Twitter to vote on your favorite stack. Got another suggestion? Let us know in the comments.

The Bullpen Report

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @glandry if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@GP_Landry).  Don't forget to sign up for the freeroll!

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