Welcome back! Hope you all had an awesome weekend. Back to the grind today with a nine-game Monday slate. Of the nine games today, only three of them are what we would consider being in hitter environments (Boston, Minnesota, and Cleveland). Keep that in mind when choosing bats as you’ll likely wind up rostering players in parks you would normally try to avoid. We’ve got some big arms to think about and make decisions on. What’s interesting is we have four pitchers priced above $10K today and I really only like one of them. Cole is a fine tournament option with his strikeout upside but Oakland is a difficult matchup for right-handed pitching. I just don't think he's worth his price tag today. Clayton Kershaw is in a great matchup against San Diego, but since returning from the disabled list he’s only thrown 62, 55, 68, and 74 pitches. Until that pitch count gets back to a normal level I just can’t pay his salary. Clevinger is fine too, I suppose, but he does struggle a bit with lefties which could be an issue against the Reds. If I land on him I’m more likely to find the remaining money I need for Berrios, who we’ll talk about shortly. If I were rolling out multiple lineups I would have exposure to both Cole and Clevinger. I have no interest in Kershaw right now. As far as weather goes, it’s pretty warm around most of the league which is a boost for the bats, especially those that are actually in hitter’s parks like Boston (85 degrees with wind blowing out), Cleveland (86 degrees with possible wind blowing out), and Minnesota (88 degrees). Alright, as usual we've got a lot to talk about today so let's get to it!

Power Pitching Options

Jose Berrios, MIN (vs. KCR) (DK: $12.1K, FD: $10.1K)

Here is my top arm of the day taking on a terrible Royals lineup that has just a .123 ISO, .287 wOBA, and 78 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season. The downside is they only strikeout 19.2% of the time, but Berrios has plenty of strikeout upside to overcome that. Berrios is coming off of a couple of less than great starts in Chicago (against the Cubs) and in Milwaukee, but I’m not going to let those recent results take away from the larger picture this season. He has a 3.58 SIERA with 25% strikeouts and an impressive 1.00 WHIP. When we look at splits, his xFIP against left-handed batters has started to regress but it’s still at a respectable 4.00 with a 36.2% hard contact rate. But, he also has 23.3% strikeouts while allowing just a .161 xISO and .306 xwOBA to left handed batters. Mike Moustakas and maybe even Lucas Duda can be considered threats but not enough to make me concerned about Berrios as an option today. Against right-handed batters, Berrios has a 3.46 xFIP with 26.8% strikeouts and an average 30.1% hard contact rate. His opponents have only a .164 xISO and .289 xwOBA against him this season. Whit Merrifield and Sal Perez are really the only right-handed bats you worry about in this lineup and this is a very tough challenge for them today against Berrios. He’s one of the largest favorites on the board today at -200 and he’s averaging 51% more fantasy points when pitching at home this season than on the road. He’ll be my SP1 in cash games and he’s my favorite arm for tournaments tonight as well.

Eduardo Rodriguez, BOS (vs. TEX) (DK: $8.4K, FD: $8K)

I guess Rodriguez is technically priced below the power pitching tier and should actually be considered more of a value play, which makes me like him even more. This is a player who was priced as high as $11.1K only a month ago and many of us rostered him that day at that price tag (it was against Baltimore). Today’s matchup is a bit more difficult but I still think it favors him, and the massive discount certainly helps mitigate the risk we are taking on. The Rangers strikeout 22.9% of the time to left-handed pitching with a .167 ISO and a .323 wOBA, and 100 wRC+. Not terrible numbers but not great either. Rodriguez has been very good this season with a 3.75 SIERA and 24.9% strikeout rate. Against left-handed batters, which he’ll likely see more of today, he has a 3.08 xFIP with a massive 34.6% strikeout rate. His left-handed opponents have a .187 xISO (so he does give up some power) and a .306 xwOBA against him this season. When facing right-handed batters, he has a 4.15 xFIP with a still above average 22.5% strikeout rate and just a 25.6% hard contact rate. Opposing righties have only a .148 xISO and .300 xwOBA against him. In the past month, Rodriguez has allowed 79 batted balls of which only 21.5% have been hit hard and the average exit velocity is just 86.4 mph. If you want to go here in cash, I wouldn’t talk you out of it, he’s a very comfortable -210 favorite. Personally, I think there are a few too many risks for that today. The power he allows to lefties, plus the left-handed power bats in the Rangers lineup, and it’s going to be hot with the winds blowing out in Boston today, all add a bit more risk then I’m willing to take on in cash games. I love him for tournaments, however, and if you use him as your SP1 you’ll have a ton of money left for bats.

Value Pitching Options

Kyle Hendricks, CHC (@SFG) (DK: $7.3K, FD: $7K)

I fully recognize that Hendricks is about the least exciting player to roster in MLB DFS. I’m also aware there’s not a single person who could argue that Hendricks has been the same quality caliber pitcher this season as he has in past years. The safety and security that comes with rostering him in DFS are long gone and he’ll need to earn that trust back before we can pick him again with any kind of certainty. But, before you completely dismiss the idea of using him today, hear me out on this one. I think he can start earning that trust back tonight as this shapes up to be a good matchup for him. Despite his struggles with the long ball this season, particularly to lefties where he’s allowing a .235 ISO (.257 xISO) including an ugly 15.9% HR/FB rate, it’s a massive park upgrade going from very small Wrigley Field to very large AT&T Park, where left-handed power not named Barry Bonds goes to die. This should help him considerably with keeping this game under control. The other downside with Hendricks, and this isn’t new to this season, is he’s not a massive strikeout pitcher. Dating back to the start of the 2017 season, he has an average 20% strikeout rate (18.4% vs LHB and 22% vs. RHB) with 10.2% swinging strikes. But the Giants are striking out 23.7% of the time to right-handed pitching this season, so we can expect a small boost to Hendricks in the “K” column tonight. If we dive a bit further into the splits, against left-handed batters, he has a 4.40 xFIP, including a .353 xwOBA and 33.4% hard contact rate on top of the ISO we already discussed. Even with these less than ideal numbers, there are really only two lefties in this lineup (Belt and Crawford) that I’m worried about. Against right-handed batters, Hendricks has a 3.59 xFIP with 53.3% groundballs, and only 28.9% hard contact. Opposing righties have a .165 xISO and .345 xwOBA against him. There’s also not a single right-handed bat in this lineup I’m worried about. McCutchen has a .153 ISO and .328 wOBA and Posey has a .096 ISO and .323 wOBA against right-handed pitching. His other start against the Giants this season was his best performance of the year when he put up 29 DraftKings points, including seven innings pitched, while allowing just two hits, one earned run and seven strikeouts. That game was in Wrigley Field. This is a very low price for Hendricks and I believe he’s more than capable of providing a return on investment today. He’s in play as an SP2 in both cash games and tournaments on this slate.

Danny Duffy, KC (@MIN) (DK: $5.8K, FD: $6.7K)

At first glance, there’s not a whole lot in Duffy’s numbers that make me want to go out of my way to roster him. He has a 4.57 SIERA with 20.4% strikeouts and 10.8% swinging strikes. But when we start to look at splits, things get a bit more interesting. Today, he takes on a Twins team that is pretty left-handed heavy and, as a result, has been terrible against left-handed pitching this season. As a team, they are striking out 24.1% of the time with just a .129 ISO, .297 wOBA, and 84 wRC+. They are also tied for the second worst hard-hit rate on the slate today at just 31.7%. Despite Duffy’s less than ideal numbers, he can still hold his own against lefties. He has a 3.65 xFIP with 22.9% strikeouts and just a 27.1% hard contact rate. Opposing left-handed bats have only a .130 xISO and .282 xwOBA since the start of last season. Against right-handed bats, it gets a bit concerning to say the least, with Duffy having a 4.99 xFIP and only 19.9% strikeouts while allowing 44.1% fly balls and 35.1% hard contact. Opposing righties have a .208 xISO and a .350 xwOBA against him. When all is said and done here though, the Twins best hitter against left-handed pitching this season is Max Kepler (.271 ISO, .380 wOBA). When your best hitter against lefties is, in fact, a lefty himself, you’ve got a problem. This will be the second time this season he has faced them. Back on May 29th, he went six innings allowing four hits with one earned run and four strikeouts. He picked up the quality start but not the win. This is more than enough considering his price. It’s hard to argue with just how bad the Twins have been against lefties and I don’t agree with their current implied run total, which is over five runs. I like Duffy today as an inexpensive SP2 for tournaments on DraftKings.

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential.

Francisco Lindor, CLE (vs. Anthony DeSclafani): It’s actually a park upgrade for DeSclafani but not enough to make a difference. He has an extremely bad 26.3% HR/FB rate on 42.2% fly balls with a 40.4% hard contact rate. Opposing left-handed hitters have a .291 xISO against him this season. Lindor has a .291 ISO and 41.3% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season. He also matches up well with DeSclafani’s top three pitch types. He has a .253 xISO against fastballs, a .227 xISO against two-seam fastballs, and a .278 xISO against sliders.

Juan Soto, WAS (vs. Ivan Nova): This isn’t the best ballpark for home runs, but as I mentioned in the introduction, there aren't many hitters' parks on today’s slate. Nova has always struggled with left-handed batters and this season is no different. He’s allowing a 15.3% HR/FB rate and 34.7% hard contact. Opposing left-handed batters have a massive .271 xISO against him. The 19-year old phenom has a .206 ISO and 38.8% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. Nova’s top three pitches against left-handed hitters are a two-seam fastball, fastball, and changeup. Soto has a .224 xISO against two-seam fastballs, a .341 xISO against fastballs, and a .223 xISO against changeups.

Gregory Polanco, PIT (vs. Jefry Rodriguez): We’ll get into Rodriguez in a bit more detail in the next section. For now, in a limited sample size, he’s allowing some pretty massive power numbers to left-handed batters including 47.6% fly balls, 52.4% hard contact, and a .415 xISO. I think the most surprising part is the BABIP is at .300, so these numbers might be more sustainable than you’d think. Polanco has a .221 ISO and 35.5% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Javier Baez, CHC (vs. Andrew Suarez): Baez was named to his first all-star game yesterday as he will start at second base for the National League. Rightfully so, he has a .243 ISO and 37.1% hard-hit rate against left-handed pitching so far this season. Suarez is allowing 18.8% HR/FB and 47.1% hard contact to right-handed batters. Opposing righties have a .238 xISO against him this season. Suarez throws a fastball (50.4% of the time), a slider (22.02% of the time), and a curveball (14.1% of the time) to right-handed batters. Baez has a .357 xISO against fastballs, a .367 xISO against sliders, and a .200 xISO against curveballs this season.

Sneaky Home Run Call of the Day:

Matt Olson, OAK (vs. Gerrit Cole): Cole has given up seven home runs in his last seven starts and has a tough test ahead of him today. Matt Olson is standing out to me in particular. Cole is allowing 38.2% fly balls and 16.8% HR/FB with 36.4% hard contact against left-handed batters, who also have a .198 xISO against him this season. Olson has a .264 ISO and a 53.9% hard-hit rate against right-handed hitters this season. He also smashes all of Cole’s pitch types including a .431 xISO against fastballs, a .344 ISO against sliders, and a .368 ISO against knuckle curves.

Stacks on Stacks 🥞

Boston Red Sox (vs. Mike Minor): This is one of the few games today in a hitter-friendly environment and the Red Sox have steadily started to improve against left-handed pitching. Steve Pearce has been outstanding since joining this team and he also helps make the stack more affordable (at least for now). He has a .286 ISO and .482 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. Mookie Betts is the top bat on the board today, as he’ll bring a .388 ISO and .483 wOBA into this matchup. JD Martinez is a close second with his .231 ISO and .400 wOBA (yes, his numbers are lower than Pearce, but if the salary wasn’t part of the equation, you wouldn’t honestly consider Pearce over Martinez would you?) Moreland and Benintendi both, surprisingly, have a lot of power against left-handed pitching. I say "surprisingly" not because I don’t think they are good players, but just because lefty vs lefty matchups always prove to be difficult for the batter. Moreland has a .203 ISO and Benintendi has a .200 ISO. Sandy Leon should get the start at catcher with Christian Vasquez going on the DL. He’s a switch hitter and his numbers against lefties aren’t great this year, but he does have 44% hard-hits. There’s nothing impressive about Xander Bogaerts against left-handed pitching. I even pulled last year’s numbers to see if something fluky was going on this season but the same results. Still, he’s going to be in the middle of this Red Sox order, so I’d still have him on your secondary radar today.

Cleveland Indians (vs. Anthony DeSclafani): This is my top stack of the day but, unfortunately, you’ll need to pay heavily for it. If you can figure out a way to make it work though, I like their chances to have a big game. DeSclafani takes a park downgrade today. He’s allowing a 4.23 xFIP, .291 xISO, .367 xwOBA, and 40.4% hard contact rate to lefties. This puts Lindor, who we’ve already discussed, firmly in the driver’s seat along with Ramirez (.342 ISO, .433 wOBA), Brantley (.207 ISO, .379 wOBA), and Alonso (.180 ISO, .341 wOBA). Against right-handed batters, DeSclafani is allowing a 4.05 xFIP, 21.1% HR/FB, and 47.3% hard contact. Encarnacion has a .270 ISO and .344 wOBA against right-handed pitching. Both of the Indians catchers (Perez or Gomez) have over 40% hard-hits against righties and Brandon Guyer is in play as well with a 40% hard-hit rate.

Los Angeles Dodgers (vs. Luis Perdomo): The Dodgers quieted down over the weekend after a really hot week, offensively. A Monday date with Perdomo should help them get back on track in a hurry. Perdomo hasn’t pitched much in the majors this season, but if we pull his numbers from last year, he stands out as an excellent candidate to stack against. He has a 4.54 SIERA with a very low 16.9% strikeout rate and a 1.58 WHIP. Left-handed batters are where he struggles the most, including a .172 xISO and .373 xwOBA. Muncy (.344 ISO, .424 wOBA), Pederson (.319 ISO, .399 wOBA), Bellinger (.249 ISO, .346 wOBA), and Grandal (.245 ISO, .359 wOBA) are my favorite options for this team. Hernandez (.264 ISO), Puig (.228 ISO, .368 wOBA), Taylor (.197 ISO, .341 wOBA), and Kemp (.193 ISO, .363 wOBA) all hit right-handed pitching well also. Perdomo throws a lot of sliders, so I always take a look at how teams perform against that specific pitch type. Grandal, Pederson, Puig, and Muncy all hit that pitch extremely well.

Washington Nationals (vs. Ivan Nova): There are way too many lefties in this lineup for Nova to have success. I alluded to this already a little in the home run watchlist section, but here are some additional details. He only strikes out 12.3% of left-handed batters with a very poor 4.83 xFIP. He’s allowing a massive .271 xISO and .393 xOBA to left-handed batters this year. This is a dream matchup for Matt Adams, who is always a big time strikeout risk, but it should be greatly reduced given just how bad Nova is at getting lefties to swing and miss. His .304 ISO and .413 wOBA are very appealing. Mark Reynolds is actually hitting right-handed batters better than left-handed batters at the moment. He’s supposed to be in a platoon split with Adams at first base, but after his career night on Saturday, they kept him in the lineup yesterday. It will be interesting to see if they play him again today or not. If he does play, he has a .373 ISO and .420 wOBA against right-handed pitching. After these guys, we have the obvious Harper with his .286 ISO and .359 wOBA against righties this season. Rendon (.229 ISO, .356 wOBA), Soto (see home run watchlist), Turner (.344 wOBA), and Eaton (.377 wOBA) are all in excellent spots today as well. I know I sound like a broken record, but Daniel Murphy still doesn’t appear to be himself at the plate just yet. I’ll continue to roster him as part of Nationals stacks.

Sneaky Stack of the Day:

Pittsburgh Pirates (vs. Jefry Rodriguez): Rodriguez started this season in Double-A, so this is a very quick climb to the major league level. He had fairly impressive numbers there including a 5-3 record in 13 games started with a 3.51 xFIP and 25.4% strikeouts. He was quickly promoted to Triple-A where he started just one game and had an 8.3% strikeout rate, 16.7% walk rate, and a 6.67 xFIP. For some reason, after that start, he was brought up to the big leagues where he’s started two games and has a 5.41 xFIP with 20.3% strikeouts. In other words, he’s struggled a lot since leaving the Double-A level. The Pirates are not a team I stack often (if at all) but this is lining up as a good spot for them. I talked about Polanco in the home run watchlist section. David Freese, surprisingly, leads this team with a .254 ISO against right-handed pitching to go along with a .380 wOBA. Francisco Cervelli has a .241 ISO and .401 wOBA. Those three represent the most power potential. Several players also have solid wOBA numbers including Moran (.338 wOBA), Marte (.349 wOBA), Dickerson (.338 wOBA).

The Bullpen

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @glandry if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@GP_Landry).

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