Happy Friday! With the weekend upon us, we have a fourteen game slate to talk about for tonight. There are a lot of pitching arms I like today across all price ranges. My two choices in the value range are particularly intriguing as they are priced for their full season of work, which isn't great, but they have significant advantages today that make them an excellent value. I'll try to bring some clarity to which ones I like more than others and why. Despite all the pitching, there are still plenty of places we can look for bats as well. This is shaping up to be a fun slate, with several directions you could go and some tough decisions you'll need to make. Do I pay up all the way for pitching or can I get away with going a level below the top studs? As far as weather goes, there are still some hot games such as Washington (82 degrees), New York (83 degrees), Minnesota (81 degrees) and some very hot games like Kansas City (91 degrees) and Los Angeles (105 degrees!). We can give a bump to the bats at those parks tonight. I'm not seeing much of anything in terms of rain at this point, which is nice. A couple of games look like they could have some wind impacting them. In Detroit, we are looking at 12-13 mph winds blowing out, which is a small boost to the bats. In Cleveland, the wind is blowing in at 16 mph, so a downgrade to the bats and an upgrade to the pitchers. With that information out of the way, let's see what we can find for our rosters tonight!

Power Pitching Options

Chris Sale, BOS (@KC) (DK: $14K, FD: $12.5K)

There is no question that Sale is the top arm today. The real question is if we think he’s worth his insane price tag on DraftKings. This is a huge slate, so there should be enough value bats to make it work. But it’s a huge slate, so I’m not sure you’ll need to spend that much of your salary on one player with so many options on the board today. This is a decision you’ll have to make when figuring out your roster construction today. There’s no question in my mind he’s earned the right to be priced this high. He has a 2.48 SIERA with a 36.1% strikeout rate and 15.9% swinging strikes. Plus, he has a cakewalk for an opponent today, against the Royals who are arguably the worst offense in baseball at the moment. They have only a .131 ISO, .293 wOBA, and 83 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. They also strikeout 21.9% of the time to lefties, which is a couple of percentage points higher than their strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. For Sale, when facing lefties, he has a ridiculous 1.98 xFIP with 36.5% strikeouts and only 4.1% walks. His WHIP (0.79) and LOB (72.2%) are both elite, and he allows just a .044 ISO, .214 wOBA, and 24.4% hard contact rate. Against righties, he has a 2.67 xFIP with 36.1% strikeouts and only 6.8% walks. Again, the WHIP (0.91) and the LOB (82.5%) are insanely good. Right-handed batters have just a .133 ISO, .246 wOBA, and 27.5% hard contact rate. I see little to no red flags here at all with both the splits and the opponent he’s facing tonight.

Jacob deGrom, NYM (vs. TB) (DK: $13K, FD: $12K)

Will this be deGrom’s last game in a Mets uniform? I would expect there to be several other teams' scouts in attendance at Citi Field tonight. As the Mets continue to fall further and further behind, they’ve made it clear they will be sellers at the deadline and have suggested they would entertain offers for deGrom (he would look great in a Boston uniform don’t you think?) Twitter went wild when deGrom was scratched from his last start, assuming it was because he had been traded, but it ended up being for personal reasons and he pitched the next night instead. Today, he has an appealing matchup against a Tampa Bay Rays team that strikes out 23% of the time to right-handed pitching with just a .125 ISO, .306 wOBA, and 96 wRC+. deGrom has a 2.48 SIERA with 31.5% strikeouts and a 15.5% swinging strike rate. If we look at the splits, he has a 2.82 xFIP with 29.3% strikeouts against left-handed batters. His LOB% is at 87.3% while allowing just a .117 ISO, .284 wOBA, and only 26.1% hard contact. Against right-handed batters, he has a 2.38 xFIP with 33.7% strikeouts. He’s forcing 49.65 groundballs, with an elite 0.88 WHIP and an outstanding 80.1 LOB%. Opposing right-handed batters have only a .052 ISO and .210 wOBA with 32.5% hard contact against him. Similar to Sale, I see little to no red flags here. Typically with the higher priced pitchers like Scherzer, Bauer, Verlander, and Cole, we get something that we can call out, whether it’s the fly ball rate or the hard contact allowed. With both of these guys, there is literally nothing. They are both in terrific matchups today as well. The Royals strikeout a little less than the Rays, but Sale has slightly more strikeout upside then deGrom, so that’s basically a wash. This is really about as even as it gets and, because of that, I’m planning to roll with deGrom in cash today as my SP1 and take the $1,000 savings for other positions on my roster. I do believe that Sale is the better pitcher but I’m not sure he’s $1,000 dollars better than deGrom (it’s a tougher decision on FanDuel where the price is only a $500 difference). I truly believe you can’t go wrong with either of these guys tonight, but there are some big bats in great spots tonight (including several of Sale’s teammates) and I’d rather have the extra money to help pay for some of them in this case.

Value Pitching Options

Lance Lynn, MIN (vs. BAL) (DK: $6.4K, FD: $7.3K)

I’m going as cheap as I possibly can for value pitching options today and Lynn happens to check off quite a few boxes at a very reasonable price tag. He had a strong month of June with a 2-2 record in five starts. He had a 3.75 xFIP with 31 strikeouts to 14 walks and only nine earned runs allowed in 28.2 innings of work. His overall numbers on the season aren’t great, with a 4.64 SIERA, 22.2% strikeout rate and a 13.5% walk rate. But the numbers from June are encouraging in that he’s starting to put things together. He has a significant splits advantage today taking on the right-handed heavy Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles strikeout 24.8% of the time to right-handed pitching with a .160 ISO but only a .292 wOBA and 92 wRC+. Lynn has been extremely good this season against right-handed batters, which he’ll likely see eight of today. He has a 3.75 xFIP with a surprising 27.7% strikeout rate. He gets 45.2% groundballs while allowing only a .143 xISO and .299 xwOBA. BABIP is also above average at .344, so it looks like he has room to improve even further on these numbers. If he does happen to see a lefty today, most likely just Chris Davis, I won’t lie to you, it’s ugly. He has a 5.15 xFIP and a 14.7% strikeout with 15.9% walks. Yup, more walks than strikeouts. The WHIP is a pathetic 2.02 along with just a 60.6% LOB. Despite how bad those numbers are, I’m not going to avoid a pitcher based on how he lines up with one, maybe two batters in that lineup. The overall matchup here is extremely positive for Lynn, in fact, this is honestly the ideal team for him to have success against. He's inefficiently priced today based on his overall numbers and not his splits, which gives us the perfect opportunity to take advantage. He's my SP2 in cash and in consideration for tournaments as well.

German Marquez, COL (@SEA) (DK: $5.8K, FD: $7.1K)

Marquez is one of my favorite pitchers in DFS when he’s away from Coors Field. Similarly to Lynn, he’s priced based on his overall performance, which, on paper, isn’t good. But his home/road splits are extremely drastic. He gets a massive park upgrade today going to Safeco Field to take on the Mariners. Marquez has a 4.57 xFIP and 1.95 WHIP with 20.2% strikeouts and a 1.93 HR/9 when at home. On the road, he has a 3.51 xFIP with only a 1.00 WHIP, 26% strikeouts and just 1.10 HR/9. Huge difference right? His splits show similar results. He’s very strong against right-handed bats, even when he’s in Coors Field, where he has a 3.49 xFIP with 27.3% strikeouts while forcing a 50.8% groundball rate. He does allow a less than ideal .189 ISO and .359 wOBA but, again, it’s Coors. Everyone who pitches there allows high numbers. On the road, still against righties, he has a 2.78 xFIP and 30.2% strikeout rate with a 53.1% groundball rate and is only allowing a .144 ISO and .286 wOBA. He does struggle more with left-handed batters, even when on the road (though it’s still way better). He has a 5.76 xFIP with only 13.8% strikeouts. The groundball rate drops to 41.3% and the wOBA increases to a massive .465 when at home. On the road, the xFIP decreases to a respectable 4.09 with a 22.7% strikeout rate. For some reason, on the road, he’s giving up a ton of fly balls as the groundball rate drops all the way to 32.9%, but that only comes with a slightly above average 11.1% HR/FB and a very low .243 wOBA allowed. Basically, we have a guy who is being priced based on his total body of work when, in actuality, he’s at a significant disadvantage whenever he takes the mound at home. The reality is, he’s a pretty talented pitcher with some significant strikeout upside. The Mariners do have several power bats in their lineup but the majority of them (aside from Seager) are right-handed batters and Marquez’s numbers on the road against righties are at an elite level. He doesn’t come without risk (then again what pitcher does these days) but the upside is far greater than the downside in this case, especially at this price tag. You can consider him as your SP2 in cash games (though I'm leaning Lynn because of the matchup) and I love him for tournaments today.

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential.

Kind of an odd day for home runs calls as a lot of hitters I would classify as “sneaky” popped up during my research. So I won’t have a specific sneaky call today. All these guys should be able to fly under the radar:

Rafael Devers, BOS (vs. Jason Hammel): I have a feeling it could be a long night for Jason Hammel. We’ll get into that in a little bit, but for now, let’s focus on a home run call. My initial reaction to this matchup was to look at Andrew Benintendi, but it turned out to be Devers who stood out in my research. Hammel has a 47.4% fly ball rate and 47.1% hard contact rate against left-handed batters this season. He’s allowing just a .169 ISO but a .285 xISO, which suggests he’s been a bit lucky up to this point. Devers has really picked it up recently after a disappointing first couple of months. He has a .215 ISO and 39.8% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season. He also matches up well with Hammel’s pitch types. He most often throws a two-seam fastball and a slider to lefties. Devers has a .263 ISO against the slider and a .357 ISO against the two-seam fastball.

Anthony Rendon, WAS (vs. Dan Straily): My initial reaction to this matchup was Harper, especially after Rendon was such a huge disappointment last night. In a game which his team scored 15 runs, he had zero fantasy points to show for it. I’m going right back to him today though, as Straily is allowing a 20% HR/FB rate on 42.7% fly balls with 50% hard contact to righties. This has resulted in 2.25 HR/9. Opposing right-handed batters have a ridiculous .325 xISO against him this season. Rendon has a .236 ISO and 37.4% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. Straily throws a fastball 47% of the time and a slider 40% of the time to right-handed hitters. Rendon has a .303 xISO against the fastball and a .215 xISO against the slider.

Niko Goodrum, DET (vs. Bartolo Colon): I still can’t get over the fact that Colon is a starter in a major league rotation at this stage in his career. It speaks volumes to how bad pitching is in this league right now, and tells us why we have so much trouble finding a reasonable SP2 to work with on a nightly basis. Anyway, since Colon is still here, you’re going to want bats against him. My initial reaction here was Nick Castellanos but I actually love how this lines up for Goodrum instead. Colon is allowing a 40.7% hard contact rate and opposing left-handed batters have a .214 xISO against him. Goodrum has a .217 ISO and 36.3% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. Colon throws a fastball 58.2% of the time and a two-seam fastball 21.7% of the time to left-handed batters. Neither pitch has an average velocity over 90 mph. Goodrum has a .373 xISO against fastballs and a .290 xISO against two-seam fastballs.

Charlie Blackmon, COL (vs. Felix Hernandez): Blackmon was actually the person I first thought of when this matchup popped up, but I think he’ll be sneaky because it’s a bad park shift for him. Still, he’s a major league baseball player who is capable of hitting home runs anywhere. In fact, 11 of his 16 home runs this season have come away from Coors Field (I love finding stuff like this when I research). He’ll square off against Felix “I’m no longer the King,” Hernandez, who is allowing a 15.7% HR/FB with 40.5% fly balls and 38% hard contact. This is resulting in a massive .269 xISO to left-handed batters this season. Blackmon has a .245 ISO and 35.3% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. Hernandez’s most used pitches to lefties are a curveball, changeup, and sinker. Blackmon has a .339 xISO against curveballs, a .251 xISO against changeups, and a .341 xISO against sinkers.

Max Muncy, LAD (vs. Felix Pena): Okay fine, this one definitely isn’t sneaky, but I’m going to ride the Muncy train until it runs out of cash. He’s unbelievably the best hitter in baseball right now. The sample size on Pena is very small at this point, but what’s standing out to me is the 48% hard contact rate and .279 xISO allowed to left-handed batters. Meanwhile, Muncy has a .361 ISO and 48% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. Pena’s most used pitches against lefties are a fastball and a slider. Muncy has a .345 xISO against fastballs and a .345 xISO against sliders this season.

Stacks on Stacks 🥞

Boston Red Sox (vs. Jason Hammel): It really doesn’t matter who the pitcher is. The Red Sox are the best team in baseball against right-handed pitching with an insane .202 ISO, .345 wOBA, and 117 wRC+ while only striking out 18.9% of the time. But in tonight’s case, they are facing a really bad pitcher, which makes this even more intriguing. He’s allowing a .285 xISO and .413 xwOBA to lefties and a .196 xISO and .366 xwOBA to righties, including over 40% hard contact to both sides of the plate. I already highlighted Devers in the home run watchlist. He’s not my favorite player from this team, but he’s a less expensive, lower owned part of any Boston stacks today. JD Martinez is my top play here with a .339 ISO and .438 wOBA. Betts is a close second with a .309 ISO and .445 wOBA. After the three of them, Moreland (.259 ISO, .385 wOBA), Bogaerts (.252 ISO, .370 wOBA), and Benintendi (.218 ISO, .381 wOBA) are all among the top bats of the entire slate. Oh, and in case you need to be reminded of the two sweetest words in DFS, here they are: Royals bullpen.

Washington Nationals (vs. Dan Straily): As predicted, the Nationals bounced back in a big way last night. It wasn’t easy, however, as they needed 15 runs to just barely sneak by with a win. They are in another fantastic spot tonight against Dan Straily, who’s allowing a .221 xISO and a .390 xwOBA to left-handed batters and a .327 xISO and .424 xwOBA against right-handed batters. Matt Adams should get the start again, facing another right-handed pitcher, where he has a .331 ISO and .412 wOBA. Harper (.296 ISO, .360 wOBA), Rendon (.236 ISO, .364 wOBA), Soto (.202 ISO, .387 wOBA), and Turner (.338 wOBA and a pair of home runs last night) are all on the radar yet again. Same as last night, Murphy’s numbers don’t jump out yet, but we know he’s one of the most talented hitters in baseball and I’m absolutely not excluding him from Washington stacks.

New York Yankees (vs. Sam Gaviglio): Speaking of teams that are really good against right-handed pitching, the Yankees have a .205 ISO, .333 wOBA, and 111 wRC+. Gaviglio has some strikeout upside, but still has a .184 xISO including 24% HR/FB and 1.95 HR/9 to right-handed batters. Aaron Judge smashes right-handed pitching with a .312 ISO and .426 wOBA, and you could make an argument for him as the top batter on the board today (though I wouldn’t rank him higher than Martinez or Betts). Austin (.235 ISO), Andujar (.205 ISO, .350 wOBA), Romine (.203 ISO, .365 wOBA), Stanton (.188 ISO), and Higashioka (.250 ISO – limited plate appearances) are all firmly in the stacking conversation today. Gaviglio is a little better against left-handed batters but still nothing we need to shy away from. Gregorius has a .255 ISO and .351 wOBA, Bird has a .238 ISO, and Hicks has a .202 ISO and .348 wOBA against right-handed pitching.

Detroit Tigers (vs. Bartolo Colon): Colon has a very low 15.5% strikeout rate and 66.7% LOB. He has a very high 26.8% HR/FB, 2.56 HR/9, and 47.1% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching. Opposing right-handed batters have a .282 xISO and .386 xwOBA against him this season. Against left-handed batters, he has an even lower 13.2% strikeout rate with 40.7% hard contact and opposing hitters have a .214 xISO and .358 xwOBA. The Tigers are right up there with the expensive Red Sox, Nationals, and Yankees as one of the best teams to stack on the slate. I talked about Goodrum already, who will actually bat from the left side, but is still an excellent option today. Castellanos (.202 ISO, .339 wOBA), Candelario (.197 ISO), Martin (.350 wOBA, 42.6% hard-hits), and Hicks (41.8% hard-hits) all have plenty of upside in this matchup.

Sneaky Stack of the Day:

Minnesota Twins (vs. Dylan Bundy): Bundy will make his return from the disabled list today. He was actually pitching really well prior to getting hurt (though all anyone will remember about him this season was that awful game against the Royals). This, however, lines up as a bad spot for him. He struggles a lot with left-handed batters including a 4.84 xFIP, 46.7% fly balls, and 34.6% hard contact. Opposing lefties have a .273 xISO and .392 xwOBA against him this season. The Twins can roll out seven to eight left-handed bats and if Bundy, for some reason, has a setback with his ankle, then they’d get some extra shots against the bad Baltimore bullpen. Escobar (.313 ISO, .398 wOBA), Rosario (.279 ISO, .409 wOBA), Morrison (.185 ISO), Cave (.184 ISO) are the priorities here. You can look at Dozier, Astudillo (if he plays), and Polanco as secondary options as well.

The Bullpen

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