Hope you all had a wonderful 4th of July yesterday with friends and family. We have an eight-game slate to discuss for tonight. My first reaction to pitching was not good but I'm starting to come around to a couple of options that we are going to discuss below. Plenty of good spots for offense including two teams that have been awful recently, but I like to bounce back today (and hopefully go under the radar). Weather will play less of a factor today than it has recently, with four of the eight games indoors and a fifth game on the West Coast where it's much cooler.  Detroit is a potential rain risk at the moment but it's still too early to tell, so keep an eye on that. Let's get to work!

Power Pitching Options

Justin Verlander, HOU (vs. CWS) (DK: $13.4K, FD: $12.2K)

Your one, and only, power arm of the day is Justin Verlander, who will be taking on the Chicago White Sox in pitcher-friendly Minute Maid Park. He went 2-2 in six starts during the month of June with a 3.63 xFIP and 46 strikeouts in just 37.1 innings of work (11.09 K/9). He did give up six home runs in those six starts including two games with two home runs each and he had just an average LOB% of 74.5. This doesn’t mean I don’t like him today, it just means he’s human. June wasn’t his best month but the strikeout upside still provides him with a reasonable floor and we know he has plenty of ceiling to work with. On the season, he has a 3.03 SIERA with a 31.2% strikeout rate and 12.7% swinging strikes. When facing left-handed batters, he has a 3.59 xFIP and 33.3% strikeout rate while allowing just a .101 xISO, .216 xwOBA, and only 23.7% hard contact. Against right-handed batters, he has a 3.53 xFIP with a 29.5% strikeout rate while allowing a closer to average .172 xISO but still a very low .272 xwOBA and 30.8% hard contact. The concern with Verlander is always the huge fly ball rate (55.3% to LHB and 53.3% to RHB) but because he does a good job limiting hard contact, he still manages to have only a 7.9% HR/FB to lefties and a 6.7% HR/FB rate to righties. Plus, the White Sox have a team ISO of only .160 and they have the lowest hard-hit rate on today’s slate at 31.1%. They also strikeout 24.9% of the time against right-handed pitching, so any risk Verlander’s fly ball rate brings is washed out by the strikeout potential he has in this matchup. He’s a -325 favorite with good reason. He needs to be owned in cash games today and he’ll be very popular in tournaments as well.  

Value Pitching Options

Jeremy Hellickson, WAS (vs. MIA) (DK: $7.7K, FD: $6.3K)

Hellickson wasn’t sharp in his return from the disabled list, allowing seven hits and three earned runs with four strikeouts and two walks in 4.2 innings of work. He did throw 98 pitches, however, which is a plus that he’s back to full strength. Now that he has a game under his belt, I think he’s a fine option today against a weak Miami lineup. Before the injury, Hellickson was having an excellent season. He has a 3.80 SIERA with 20.3% strikeouts and only 4.3% walks. His GB/FB ratio is right around the average, with a 44.1% groundball rate and he’s allowing only 29.5% hard contact. His opponent today, Miami, will give him a slight boost in the strikeout column, as they whiff 23.5% of the time against right-handed pitching. They also have a very low .127 ISO, .297 wOBA, and only 87 wRC+. If we look at the splits against lefties, Hellickson has a 3.75 xFIP with 20.2% strikeouts. Opposing left-handed batters do have a .217 xISO and .341 xwOBA against him, which isn’t ideal, obviously, but only a 27.7% hard contact rate. Plus, the few left-handed batters in this Marlins lineup don’t profile very well against Hellickson. Two of his main pitches against lefties are a knuckle curve and a changeup. Justin Bour currently has a .138 wOBA against the knuckle curve and a .287 wOBA against the changeup. Derek Dietrich has a .000 wOBA against the knuckle curve (small sample size) and only a .209 wOBA against the changeup. In fact, the left-handed batter with the best chance of success against Hellickson, if we focus strictly on pitch types, is J.T Riddle, who has a .586 wOBA against the knuckle curve and a .359 wOBA against changeups. That was a really long way of explaining that I’m not worried about the lefties in this spot, despite Hellickson’s high xISO and xwOBA. Against right-handed batters, he has a 3.29 xFIP with 20.6% strikeouts and only 2.7% walks. Opposing righties have only a .152 xISO and .247 xwOBA against Hellickson, and he continues to manage hard contact well at just 30.6%. He’s a solid -172 favorite today and, given the matchup, I think you can consider him for cash games as an SP2 on DraftKings. His price on FanDuel is excellent today and would allow you to fit in any bats you’d want.  

Max Fried, ATL (@MIL) (DK: $7.5K, FD: $5.9K)

Milwaukee has been sneaky bad against left-handed pitching this season, which surprises me given some of the power bats they have. But when you think about it, Shaw, Thames, Yelich, and Miller are all left-handed hitters. Cain is on the disabled list right now. That leaves Aguilar, Braun….and? Not a whole lot actually. Erik Kratz (if he even makes the lineup), and Keon Broxton are the two others that give me some concern. This really does shape up pretty well for Fried today and I think he’ll go overlooked. Since the sample size on him this season is a little small, I pulled last year’s data as well and combined the two to give us more to work with. There’s a lot to like here. He has a 3.91 SIERA with 23.7% strikeouts and 10.3% swinging strikes. He’s forcing 61.7% groundballs and allowing slightly above average hard contact at 31.4%. Against left-handed batters, he has a very impressive 2.55 xFIP and 36.1% strikeout rate. He’s allowing a .175 ISO but only a .090 xISO and a .330 wOBA but only a .296 xISO with a .339 BABIP. So I think we can safely predict positive regression for him here. He’s also getting 53.3% groundballs and allowing only 26.7% hard contact. Against right-handed batters, things are a bit worse, with a 4.43 xFIP and only 18.1% strikeouts. The ISO allowed is at .145 (.182 xISO) and the wOBA allowed is at .345 (.362 xwOBA) which aren’t ideal but still only average. You could definitely do worse. He also gets a massive 64.4% groundball rate to righties while allowing slightly above average 33% hard contact. The concern with Fried is home runs. He gets a lot of groundballs but, like many groundball pitchers, if a ball does happen to get in the air, it’s gone. He has a 40% HR/FB rate against lefties and a 22.2% HR/FB to righties. He also has a high walk rate at 11.3%. So this suggestion doesn’t come without its share of risks. I want to see the Brewers lineup before making any final decisions but, ultimately, I believe Fried can get past the power lefties in this lineup with his swing and miss abilities, groundball rate, and positive regression. I’m a little nervous about right-handed bats (Aguilar is a sneaky home run call today) but I’m not going to back down from a pitcher because he doesn’t matchup up well with only a couple of batters. Barring something unforeseen, my plan is to take a stand today on Fried as my SP2 in tournaments. I don’t think many others will and he’s a good price to allow us to still fit in some bats we need, plus Verlander. In my opinion, he's a steal on FanDuel. If you’re jumping on this ship with me, let’s meet in the Max Fried chat room on the projections page and stress about it together.

Marco Gonzales, SEA (vs. LAA) (DK: $7.3K, FD: $7.3K)

Similar to the Brewers, the Angels have also been sneaky bad against left-handed pitching this season. This one is even more troubling, however, given how many right-handed bats the Angels have in their lineup. They have just a .157 ISO, .301 wOBA, and 94 wRC+ against lefties this season. Gonzales, meanwhile, will bring his impressive 3.69 SIERA and 21.2% strikeout rate to the mound today. Against righties, which is honestly all we are worried about, he has a 3.36 xFIP with 22.3% strikeouts and only 5.3% walks. He allows a slightly below average .166 ISO (.187 xISO) and an average .340 wOBA (.353 xwOBA) and the BABIP is well above average at .331, which is encouraging. If there does happen to be a lefty or two in this lineup, Gonzales still has a solid 3.87 xFIP but the strikeout rate drops all the way down to 15.9%. Honestly, if you’re rostering Gonzales today, you’re not doing it for strikeout upside, as the Angels strikeout the least of any team in baseball against left-handed pitching at just 19.8%. You’re interested in Gonzales today because he’s cheap and he should be able to pitch deep into this game without getting shelled. Any strikeouts he picks up are a bonus but, ultimately, you’re looking for a strong floor here. The other encouraging part about Gonzales is his sinker, which is his most often used pitch. I pulled data from last season (not big enough sample sizes against this specific pitch type this year) and nobody, including Mike Trout, has any power against this pitch. Pujols (.000 ISO, .138 wOBA), Simmons (.000 ISO, .318 wOBA), Upton (.077 ISO, .409 wOBA), Kinsler (.133 ISO, .305 wOBA), Maldonado (.000 ISO, .202 wOBA), and Trout (.000 ISO, .296 wOBA) all have difficulty with this pitch type. Between the Angels troubles with left-handed pitching in general AND their specific struggles hitting the sinker, which happens to be Gonzales best pitch, I think you have the ingredients for a solid outing from him today. Just like I said, don’t expect a lot of upside. So it might not be the best GPP play.  

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential

Manny Machado, BAL (vs. Aaron Slegers): I honestly don’t think I’ve recommended an Orioles player all season but here we are. Slegers will make a spot start today and likely get sent back to Triple-A after the game. He has zero swing and miss potential, with only 10% strikeouts to right-handed batters. He does get 56.7% groundballs to righties (small sample size alert) but when he lets a fly ball go, forget about it. He has a 25% HR/FB rate and is allowing 48.4% hard contact. Machado has a .268 ISO and 37.4% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching this season. He also matches up well with Slegers’ pitch types. He throws a fastball or a slider about 80% of the time to right-handed bats. Machado has a .211 ISO against the fastball and a crazy .474 ISO against sliders this season.

Mitch Haniger, SEA (vs. Jaime Barria): Barria gets obliterated by right-handed batters and that might be an understatement. He’s allowing a .337 xISO and a .435 xwOBA including 17.5% HR/FB with 48.2% fly balls and a 42.2% hard contact rate. This all results in 2.33 HR/9 being given up. I’ll be honest Cruz, Healy, and Haniger are all on my home run radar today. I’m choosing Haniger as my favorite of those three options because of how he lines up with Barria’s pitch types. He throws a slider nearly 50% of the time and a fastball 37% of the time. Haniger has a .217 ISO against the slider (Cruz .154 ISO, Healy .333 ISO) and a .371 ISO against the fastball (Cruz .244 ISO and Healy .101 ISO). When you compare all three of them, Haniger is the one who has consistent power across both pitch types, which, therefore, pushes him ahead of the others.

Paul Goldschmidt, ARI (vs. Eric Lauer): Lauer will forever be a favorite of mine for giving me my best night of the MLB DFS season so far this year, but this is not a good matchup for him. For starters, even though Chase Field is more pitcher-friendly these days, it’s still a better hitter’s park than Petco Park. So that’s an instant downgrade to Lauer. Secondly, Paul Goldschmidt, whose sole purpose in life is to ruin left-handed pitching, will be in this lineup today. I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again. Death, taxes, Jason Witten against the New York Giants (man I’m going to miss that one), and Paul Goldschmidt against left-handed pitching are the only things in my life that I’m really sure about. He has a .373 ISO with 51.6% hard-hits against lefties this season. Lauer throws his fastball 54.5% of the time to right-handed batters and Goldschmidt has an unbelievable .571 ISO against fastballs this season.

Eduardo Escobar, MIN (vs. Andrew Cashner): Cashner allows an above average 15.4% HR/FB rate on 42.6% fly balls. More importantly, left-handed hitters have a .238 ISO against him so far this season. The Twins have a bunch of lefties in their lineup that can do some damage here (we’ll get to that in a minute) but Escobar stands out above the rest. He has a .304 ISO and 40.5% hard-hits against right-handed pitching.

Sneaky Home Run Call of the Day

Matt Adams, WAS (vs. Pablo Lopez): I’m hoping this will be sneaky because Adams has been on the disabled list for a while now with a broken index finger. He was activated yesterday and Washington announced that he would be in a platoon at first base with Mark Reynolds. With a right-handed pitcher on the mound today, I’m assuming Adams will get the start. He’s a pinch-hit risk, which isn’t ideal, but there’s too much potential here to ignore. Plus, for the moment at least, he’s priced down on both sites. If he picks up where he left off, however, that won’t last long. He had a .331 ISO and 45.8% hard-hit rate against righties before he got hurt.  

Stacks on Stacks 🥞

Minnesota Twins (vs. Andrew Cashner): As I mentioned in the home run watch list, Cashner is especially poor against left-handed batters where he allows a .238 ISO (.233 xISO), .348 wOBA (.357 xwOBA) and 15.4% HR/FB. This will be a problem against a Minnesota team that is capable of rolling out as many as eight left-handed bats. We already highlighted Escobar, so we know he’s my favorite. Rosario is close behind him, with a .284 ISO and .416 wOBA. Morrison (.185 ISO, 40% hard-hits), Grossman (40% hard-hits), Adrianza (39.8% hard-hits) all have power upside in this spot. Brian Dozier, who might be the only right-handed batter in the lineup, has a .193 ISO and 47.1% hard-contact rate, so he’s absolutely an important part of any stacks here. What makes the Twins really intriguing is some of the newer players they’ve added to the roster recently. Jake Cave, in 36 plate appearances, has a .200 ISO and 38.5% hard-hit rate. Willians Astudillo has a .199 ISO and .357 wOBA in Triple-A, and Jorge Polanco has a .507 wOBA in Triple-A before being recalled. 

Washington Nationals (vs. Pablo Lopez): Washington is ice-cold right now after getting swept by Boston in their most recent series. They’ve lost eight of their last ten, including five in a row, and are now one game below .500. The perfect solution to help them get back on track is a date with Pablo Lopez and the Miami Marlins tonight. Lopez actually pitched pretty well in his debut, going six innings allowing six hits and two earned runs with a walk and five strikeouts. The two earned runs were both solo shots, so home runs are looking like they could be an issue. He also faced the Mets, who do not have Bryce Harper, Juan Soto, Matt Adams, Adam Eaton, Daniel Murphy, Anthony Rendon, or Trea Turner on their team and the game was in the very friendly pitching environment known as Marlins Park. Lopez’s Triple-A numbers don’t give me a lot of confidence that his one successful start will continue. He had a very concerning 4.55 xFIP with just an 18.8% strikeout rate with a 74.5% left-on-base rate in Triple-A. I already talked about Matt Adams, so let’s hope he cracks the lineup today. If he doesn’t, Reynolds is a solid substitute with a .305 ISO and .346 wOBA against right-handed pitching. After the two of them, we have Harper (.297 ISO, .361 wOBA), Rendon (.238 ISO, 362 wOBA), Soto (.204 ISO, .390 wOBA), Turner (.339 wOBA, stolen bases upside), and Eaton (.384 wOBA). Daniel Murphy hasn’t found his groove just yet but he’s too talented of a player to not consider. If you’re playing multiple stacks of this team today, you should include him. If you’re only playing one, I wouldn’t make him the priority over these other guys.

Arizona Diamondbacks (vs. Eric Lauer): Lauer had a really good month of June but the data still suggests he’s someone I would stack against before I rostered him. He has a 4.73 xFIP with just an 18.8% strikeout rate and a very concerning 1.76 WHIP, which is exactly what I want to see when looking at stack potential. Arizona hits left-handed pitching very well with a .191 ISO, .328 wOBA, 104 wRC+ and a massive 41.1% hard-hit rate. I’m mostly interested in the right-handed batters here, as Lauer is allowing a .191 ISO, .385 wOBA, and 41.6% hard contact. A.J Pollock, who was activated over the weekend, and not Paul Goldschmidt, has the best numbers on this team against left-handed pitching. Granted, the sample size is smaller than I’d like with only 50 plate appearances, but a .444 ISO and .431 wOBA are hard to ignore. He and Goldschmidt are very high priorities for me today. After them, John Ryan Murphy (.298 ISO, .383 wOBA), Descalso (.286 ISO, .340 wOBA), Ahmed (.241 ISO, .366 wOBA), and if he plays Marte (.221 ISO, .368 wOBA) all make for fantastic options. My favorite part about this stack is, outside of Goldy and Pollock (at least on DraftKings) these players are very affordable. Pollock is a better value on FanDuel but worth it on both sites, and Goldschmidt is very expensive but with good reason. 

Seattle Mariners (vs. Jaime Barria): You can’t take on a team like Seattle and give up the amount of hard contact that someone like Barria does. There is just way too much power in this lineup. We talked about it a little in the home run watch list already, but I’ll reiterate it here. Against lefties, Barria is allowing a .195 xISO, and .325 xwOBA with 38.3% hard contact. Against righties, he allows a .337 xISO and a .435 xwOBA with 42.2% hard contact. Haniger tops my list from this team, despite having a lower ISO/wOBA than Cruz because of the pitch type breakdown I discussed earlier. The rest of the Mariners against right-handed pitching includes Cruz (.258 ISO, .365 wOBA), Healy (.222 ISO, .325 wOBA), Seager (.206 ISO), Span (.203 ISO, .364 wOBA), Segura (.351 wOBA), and Gamel (.365 wOBA) who all provide excellent pieces of a full Seattle stack today. Zunino has plenty of upside with a .246 ISO against right-handed pitching, but he’s struggling a lot recently, so it’s very boom or bust if you want to include him.  

Sneaky Stack of the Day:

Baltimore Orioles (vs. Aaron Slegers): I love to use pitchers against Baltimore but that won’t be the case on this slate. If there were ever a time to stack this struggling offense this would be it. Sledgers will see seven or eight right-handed batters today, where he has a 5.55 xFIP, 10% strikeout rate and 12.5% walks. The WHIP is incredibly high at 1.73 and the BABIP is below average, but not by a ton, at .276. He’s forced 56.7% groundballs, which is nice, but a quarter of the time he gives up a fly ball, it leaves the park. Those are terrible odds. Machado is the best option here and he’s likely going to wind up a top three option for me today on the whole slate. Mark Trumbo has been swinging the bat better recently and he brings a .269 ISO and .384 wOBA against right-handed pitching to this game. It gets a little more blurry after those two but we have some low floor, high ceiling options we could target for tournament stacks. Alvarez (.223 ISO), Rickard (.200 ISO), Wynns (.250 ISO, 57.1% hard contact), and Jones (.184 ISO) all have the upside to get the job done. 

The Bullpen

Good luck today!  Tag me in the LineStar Chat @glandry if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@GP_Landry).  

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