Happy 4th of July! I’m on my third cup of coffee staying up late to get this article done as we have baseball going on all day long starting with the Red Sox at the Nationals with a first pitch time of 11:05 am EST. For the article today, I’m going to focus on the two seven-game slates with the early one beginning at 1:05 EST and the main slate beginning at the usual 7:05 EST. We have plenty of expensive arms to choose from, which is good news. But, the bad news is we have another serious lack of value pitching available and this is a Coors slate so we are going to have to decide if we want to take our chances in the mid/value tiers in order to fit in the Coors bats or pay up at pitching and find value bats instead. Coors, for the most part, hasn’t treated us well in this current series. Colorado was fine last night but the Giants were once again a huge disappointment. We can’t let that cloud our judgment, however, as this is still the best hitting environment in baseball and I have no reason to believe the low scoring we’ve seen so far will continue. There is hot and humid weather throughout the league once again so, as always, be sure you are watching the weather before finalizing any rosters. Grab some breakfast, pour some coffee, have a seat and let’s get to work!

Power Pitching Options

Early Slate: 

Aaron Nola, PHI (vs. BAL) (DK $13.1K, FD: $10.1K)

This is a dream matchup for Nola who is lights out against right-handed batters this season. He takes on the Orioles, who are a very right-handed heavy team, this afternoon. Nola has a 3.53 SIERA with 25.3% strikeouts and 11.3% swinging strikes. His WHIP is very close to an elite level, at 1.01, and he forces 50.9% groundballs while only allowing 26.7% hard contact. The Orioles, who strikeout 24.7% of the time to right-handed pitching, have an average .162 ISO, .293 wOBA, and 83 wRC+. Against left-handed batters, which is essentially just Chris Davis on this team, Nola has a 3.91 xFIP with 21.3% strikeouts. He allows only a .119 xISO, .290 xwOBA, and 23% hard contact rate with 51% groundballs. Just to reiterate, against lefties, more than half of the balls put in play are grounders and they go for hard contact only 23% of the time. Nola throws a fastball, curveball, and changeup most often to lefties and Davis can’t hit any of them. He has a .080 ISO, .215 wOBA, and 15.1% swinging strikes against the fastball, a .000 ISO, .051 wOBA, and 14.9% swinging strikes against the curveball, and a .029 ISO, .215 wOBA, and 18.1% swinging strikes against the changeup. Needless to say, I don’t think he’s a threat today. Against right-handed batters, which is basically the rest of this lineup, Nola has a 2.65 xFIP with a 29.4% strikeout rate and 50.8% groundballs. He’s allowing only a .104 xISO, .244 xISO with an average 30.8% hard contact rate. There’s currently no line on this game as there was some uncertainty about who was going to start for Baltimore. Once the line is released I’d expect Nola to be one of if not the heaviest favorite on the board. He makes for a great cash game arm today and you can absolutely consider him for tournaments as well.  

Main Slate:

Trevor Bauer, CLE (@KC) (DK: $13.6K, FD: $12K)

Okay Bauer, both of your teammates have let me down so far this week. But you’re not going to do that to me right? Neither Kluber or Bieber had the starts we were hoping for when we invested in them on Monday and Tuesday but I’m going right back to the well with one of the best pitchers in baseball at this point in the season. In the month of June, Bauer had 62 strikeouts in just 41.1 innings pitched (13.5 K/9) while only allowing 10 earned runs. This season, he has a 3.03 SIERA with a 31.6% strikeout rate and 13.2% swinging strikes. Against left-handed batters, Bauer has a 2.82 xFIP with 33.2% strikeouts, 13.3% swinging strikes and 47.1% groundballs. His opponents have just a .097 xISO and .257 xwOBA against him. When facing right-handed batters, he has a 3.09 xFIP with 30.3% strikeouts and 14.6% swinging strikes. Opponents are having a little more success against him from the right-side, with a .165 xISO and .292 xwOBA but those are still below average numbers and nothing we need to be concerned about. There are honestly very few red flags here. The BABIP is right around the league average to both sides of the plate. His xFIP is outstanding. He’s not giving up a ton of fly balls or home runs (unlike Gerrit Cole). The only part about this matchup that is less than ideal is that the Royals only strikeout 19.2% of the time to right-handed pitching. But, Bauer is more than capable of overcoming that with the strikeout upside he brings. He’s a -235 favorite and your top arm for both cash games and tournaments on the main slate (if you can afford him).  

Value Pitching Options

Early Slate:

Jose Urena, MIA (vs. TB) (DK: $6.9K, FD: $7.0K)

The good news is, this is a really good matchup for Urena. Tampa Bay strikes out 23% of the time to right-handed pitching with a very poor .126 ISO, .307 wOBA, and 97 wRC+. This game is in Miami, which means the Rays will have to substitute their DH with the pitcher, making the lineup even weaker, and the Rays are likely to roll out six to seven right-handed bats which Urena is significantly better against. The bad news is he never made a rehab start and I haven’t seen anything as far as a pitch count is concerned so you’re definitely taking on some extra risk if you roster him today. Prior to getting hurt, Urena had a respectable 3.85 SIERA with 19.4% strikeouts and 53% groundballs. Looking at the splits, his xFIP is a little higher than we’d like at 4.01, but that's not terrible. The strikeout rate is low at 16.7% and he gives up a lot of hard contact (44.4%). He’s allowing a .213 xISO and .366 xwOBA but he does have a 51.7% groundball rate. Jake Bauers is the one threat to do some damage from this side of the plate. Things look much, much better against right-handed batters, where Urena has a 3.66 xFIP with 22.2% strikeouts and 54.7% groundballs. The xISO comes way down to .115 and the xwOBA comes down to .286 despite still allowing an above average 39% hard contact rate. I’ll continue to look for pitch count information and if it turns out the Marlins aren’t going to let him go long enough to make his salary worth it I’ll post an update to this article. Because of that uncertainty, he’s too risky for cash, but I think he makes for an excellent GPP play today. 

Main Slate:

Marcus Stroman, TOR (vs. NYM) (DK: $6.5K, FD: $6.5K)

Stroman has pitched fairly well since returning from the disabled list. In his two starts, he’s 1-0 with a 2.54 xFIP and nine strikeouts to only one walk. His signature groundball rate is still there, at 71.4% and he’s only allowed one earned run. This season, he has a 3.87 SIERA (almost three runs below his ERA) with 18.6% strikeouts and a 62.9% groundball rate. He’ll see his fair share of left-handed batters today, where he has a 3.90 xFIP (well below his 7.52 ERA), 16% strikeouts and a 60.6% groundball rate. Opposing batters have a .211 xISO and .396 xwOBA against him, which isn’t great, but with how much lower his xFIP is than his ERA and how high the BABIP is (.352 against lefties) there should be some serious positive regression working in his favor. Against right-handed batters, he has an excellent 3.32 xFIP with 21.9% strikeouts and 66.2% groundballs. Here, his opponents have just a .148 xISO and .320 xwOBA against him. The BABIP is much closer to the average which would lead me to believe these numbers are more sustainable than what we saw against lefties. The red flag with Stroman is always the hard contact he allows (44.7% to lefties and 43.3% to righties) but because he does such an outstanding job forcing grounders he’s able to limit the damage. He’s not going to get you a ton of strikeouts, but he’s unlikely to get shelled either. Honestly, with how poorly value pitching has gone lately, I find myself looking for floor more than anything. Chen on Monday and Cobb last night are perfect examples. The cheaper you can go the better. Stroman is a very comfortable -185 favorite and I think he makes a lot of sense today, particularly as an SP2 on DraftKings.   

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Early Slate:

Aaron Hicks, NYY (vs. Julio Tehran): Tehran is really having a bad season against left-handed batters so far. He has a 5.71 xFIP which is nearly two full runs above his 3.79 ERA with 17.9% strikeouts and 16.2% walks. We’ll get to that more in the stacking section. For now, all you need to know for finding home runs is he allows 14% HR/FB with 43.5% fly balls and a 40.7% hard contact rate. Left-handed batters have a .203 ISO (.239 xISO) against him. Hicks, who is a switch hitter (I actually didn’t know that until now) has a .206 ISO and 38.8% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season. Tehran’s primary pitches against lefties are a fastball, two-seam fastball, and changeup. Hicks has a .214 ISO against fastballs (with a ridiculous 1.44% swinging strike rate), a .394 ISO against two-seam fastballs, and a .261 ISO against changeups.

Justin Upton, LAA (vs. Mike Leake): Right-handed batters have a .215 ISO against Leake so far this season due to his 18.9% HR/FB rate and 36.1% hard contact allowed. Upton, normally a lefty masher, is doing the complete opposite this season with a .222 ISO and 47.2% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. Leake throws several different pitch types with the most often used ones being a sinker, cutter, and slider. Upton hits each of these very well including a .176 ISO and 90.1 aEV against the sinker, a .333 ISO against the cutter, and a .206 ISO against the slider.

Main Slate:

The main slate has a Coors game so I will exclude those players from being part of this list:

Matt Davidson, CWS (vs. Sal Romano): Romano has one of the highest HR/FB rates on the entire slate at 20.8% to right-handed batters. He also allows a 32% fly ball rate and 32.7% hard contact. Right-handed batters have a .209 ISO against him so far this season. I much prefer Davidson against lefties but he’s still very much in play for a home run against right-handed pitching. He has a .213 ISO and 39.4% hard-hit rate. Romano’s top two pitches are a two-seam fastball and a slider both of which Davidson hits well. He has a .316 ISO against the two-seamer and a .250 ISO against the slider.

Starling Marte, PIT (vs. Rich Hill): Hill has been really bad against right-handed batters this season. He’s allowing a 22.5% HR/FB with 45.5% fly balls and a massive 47.3% hard contact rate. This has resulted in him giving up 2.51 HR/9, a .278 ISO and a .286 xISO. Not good. Marte has a .219 ISO with a 31.9% hard-hit rate against left-handed pitching.

Edwin Encarnacion, CLE (vs. Ian Kennedy): My love affair with the Cleveland Indians continues this week in another prime spot against Ian Kennedy and the Kansas City Royals. Kennedy is allowing 1.95 HR/9 against right-handed batters, including 43.1% fly balls of which 15.9% end up in the seats due to a 37% hard contact rate allowed. Encarnacion has a .276 ISO and 41.4% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. Kennedy throws a two-seam fastball, a slider, and the occasional knuckle curve to right-handed batters. Encarnacion has a .218 IS against the slider, a .243 ISO against the fastball, and a .250 ISO against the knuckle curve. (Note: Kennedy has been scratched but it looks likely that the Royals will be calling up Trevor Oaks, a right-handed pitcher currently in Triple-A, so I still like Encarnacion a lot.) 

Stacks on Stacks 🥞

Early Slate:

New York Yankees (vs. Julio Tehran): This could get ugly in a hurry. Tehran is getting demolished by both sides of the plate this year. We’ll start with the left-handed bats. He’s allowing a .203 ISO (.239 xISO), .340 wOBA (.370 xwOBA), and 40.7% hard contact rate. Hicks is my favorite, who I already mentioned in the home run watchlist today, Didi Gregorius is a close second with his .257 ISO, and .350 wOBA and then Greg Bird rounds out my interest in the lefties with a .247 ISO. Against righties, Tehran is allowing a .220 ISO with 35.8% hard contact. Take your pick of right-handed bats here. Judge is king, with a .321 ISO and .429 wOBA, Torres is next with a .245 ISO and .363 wOBA. Austin (.235 ISO), Romine (.203 ISO, .365 wOBA), Andujar (.202 ISO, .347 wOBA), Drury (.200 ISO, .347 wOBA, only 23 plate appearances) are all on the radar as well. Stanton is significantly worse against right-handed pitching this season so I wouldn’t prioritize him but if you’re doing multiple Yankees stacks you can certainly include him. Kyle Higashioka has two home runs in his last three games if you’re looking for a punt catcher option.

Detroit Tigers (vs. Jose Quintana): The Tigers are not a good matchup for Quintana who has been very good against left-handed hitters but pretty poor against right-handed hitters. Detroit will roll out seven to eight right-handed bats in this game where Quintana allows a .185 ISO (.194 xISO) and a .337 wOBA (.351 xwOBA) with a very high 42.8% hard contact rate. Candelario (.253 ISO, .390 wOBA, 39.2% hard-hits), Castellanos (.228 ISO, .476 wOBA, 46.9% hard-hits), McCann (.193 ISO, .322 wOBA, 40% hard-hits), Hicks (.380 wOBA), and Goodrum (.343 wOBA) are all in play here. Jacoby Jones doesn’t have great numbers but he does have an insane 52.2% hard-hit rate against left-handed pitching. He’s a cheap piece of this stack if you want to roll the dice.

Chicago Cubs (vs. Francisco Liriano): Liriano is struggling this season (as usual) with a 5.15 SIERA and a very low 18.7% strikeout rate. We’ll start with right-handed bats, which I’m most interested in, where he’s allowing a .165 ISO (.235 xISO), .334 wOBA (.389 xwOBA), and a 32.7% hard contact rate. Kris Bryant is expected to make his highly anticipated return today “assuming nothing goes wrong in pre-game warmups”. If he does play, we aren’t getting a discount like I was hoping, but you can’t ignore his performance against left-handed pitching. He had a .431 ISO, and .493 wOBA in 58 plate appearances before getting hurt. I talked about Baez in the home run watchlist so you already know what I think of him. Contreras (.226 ISO, .387 wOBA), Russell (.175 ISO, .358 wOBA), Happ (.172 ISO, .342 wOBA) and Almora Jr. (.364 wOBA) are all in excellent spots. Liriano isn’t as bad but he’s certainly not great against left-handed batters. I wouldn’t go crazy here but Zobrist (42%) and Schwarber (39.3%) both have respectable hard-hit rates against lefties if you want to differentiate.

Main Slate:

Once again this is a Coors slate. Since the main slate is a bitter smaller today, I’m going to look elsewhere for stacks you could potentially use as pivots rather than state the obvious that you should stack Coors. You already know that. Both the Rockies and the Giants are in play though I prefer the Rockies who will face a lefty that struggles with hard contact.

Cleveland Indians (vs Whoever Pitches It Doesn’t Matter): In the middle of writing this article last night I got an alert (make sure you are following @LineStarMLB for the latest news like this) that Ian Kennedy, who was supposed to start today, was being placed on the disabled list. The Royals have not announced a replacement but I have to be honest it really doesn’t matter. They don’t have anyone in their organization they could call up that I would consider an upgrade over Kennedy and if they end up piecing together a bullpen game then you could seriously make the argument to stack Cleveland over Coors Field. That’s how bad the Royals bullpen is. From what I’ve been able to read, the most likely candidate is Trevor Oaks who is currently in Triple-A and would be pitching on normal rest should he get the nod. In one start this season at the major league level, Oaks is 0-1 with a 7.45 ERA (though a much better 3.77 xFIP with just 17% strikeouts and a 59.5% hard contact rate (remember it’s only one game). In Triple-A, he’s 5-3 in 13 starts with a very poor 4.89 xFIP and only a 14.7% strikeout rate. Those numbers, at that level, mean serious trouble. Stack the Indians. A lot. For the record, Oaks is right-handed so just keep that in mind when considering splits.

Los Angeles Dodgers (vs. Also Whoever Pitches It Doesn’t Matter): About two minutes after I found out about Kennedy I got another alert (thank you @LineStarMLB) that Joe Musgrove, who was supposed to start today, had also been placed on the 10-day disabled list. What are the odds? Like the Indians, I was considering stacking the Dodgers even before this news came out so I see no reason to change it now. Pittsburgh has not announced a new starter but again from what I’ve been able to find Clay Holmes is the most likely candidate. He was recalled by the Pirates on 6/24 and hasn’t pitched since being brought up so he’s on plenty of rest. Holmes is 6-3 in 12 starts in Triple-A with a 3.25 xFIP and a 25% strikeout rate. He’s a lot more promising than whoever the Royals are planning to rollout. Despite the solid numbers, that’s still just Triple-A, and you could make an argument that the Dodgers are one of the hottest teams in baseball. I tweeted out yesterday afternoon (@GP_Landry) that Max Muncy had a .455 ISO, .520 wOBA, and a 237 wRC+ over his last ten games. He then proceeded to hit two more bombs last night. He’s arguably the hottest hitter in baseball right now. A Triple-A pitcher with some strikeout upside will absolutely not keep me from rostering the Dodgers who are on complete fire. Holmes is a right-handed pitcher so I will continue to ride the Muncy and Pederson train straight to the money. Hernandez (.257 ISO, .328 wOBA), Bellinger (.254 ISO, .349 wOBA), Grandal (.227 ISO, .346 wOBA), Puig (.223 ISO, .367 wOBA), Kemp (.205 ISO, .367 wOBA), do I really need to keep going? Fire them up.

Toronto Blue Jays (vs. Corey Oswalt): Oswalt is infamous as the guy who replaced Jacob deGrom at the last second a week ago when all of us were on deGrom and had to scramble. He proceeded to get shelled allowing six earned runs in just 2.2 innings pitched including two home runs and only one strikeout against Miami. Not good. In Triple-A, he’s 4-4 in 10 starts with a 4.36 xFIP and a 23.4% strikeout rate. The strikeout upside is nice, but not really high enough for the minor league level, and the xFIP is very concerning. Combine that with the results we’ve already seen in the majors and you’ve got another perfect stacking situation on your hands. Grichuk (.291 ISO, .342 wOBA), Hernandez (.250 ISO, .351 wOBA), Smoak (.234 ISO, .345 wOBA), and Granderson (.222 ISO, .369 wOBA) are all the priorities. Gurriel (.204 ISO), Diaz (.196 ISO), and Morales (.187 ISO) all have power upside for tournaments as well.  

The Bullpen

That will do it for this 4th of July edition of the LineStar Daily Ledger. If you happen to be playing the all-day slate the Red Sox are in a tremendous spot against Erick Fedde and I would absolutely want some of those bats. I didn’t mention them as a stacking option today because they are not part of the early slate, only the all-day since first pitch is at 11:05 EST. As far as pitching goes, on the early slate, Nola is the safe guy and Berrios is the tournament option due to the tougher matchup but those of them are excellent options today. Value pitching on the early slate isn’t ideal, but that’s pretty much been the case every day it would seem lately. After watching Cobb and Chen the last two nights, who were both the cheapest pitchers available on their respective slates, become the highest (or nearly the highest in Cobb’s case) scoring pitchers on the night, I’m going to take my chances more often with punting my SP2 when it makes sense to do so. Urena just so happens to be both a reasonable punt and the best option on the early slate (assuming he'll get a high enough pitch count) so it’s a win-win. On the main slate, Trevor Bauer is far and away the guy that you want.  Gerrit Cole has really been struggling with fly balls, hard contact, and home runs and Globe Life Park in the Texas heat is not the place I want to see if he's figured it out or not.  He's still an elite tournament play, however, as I imagine most will be thinking the same way I am and his ownership will be ver low.  With all that said, you’ll have to decide between them and all the expensive bats that come with the main slate (Coors Field, Indians, etc). I’m seriously considering the Indians bats, even over Coors, with just how bad the Royals pitching situation is right now. I hope you all have a wonderful holiday today, enjoy some baseball, and I’ll catch you back here tomorrow!  Good luck today!  Tag me in the LineStar Chat @glandry if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@GP_Landry).  

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