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Written by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GP_Landry on Twitter

Can you believe it? It's the last day of July. There will be football on our TV in just a couple more days. This baseball season is flying. We have a fourteen game slate on tap tonight. I'm going to (maybe) do something that I've never done before on this slate and I'm not happy about it. We'll get to that in a minute. Overall, I really like the top-tier pitching (Bauer, Skaggs, and Morton) and I think there are a few different directions you could go in. Value pitching is a little less clear, but what else is new. Picking an SP2 on DraftKings has been a dumpster fire all year. Plenty of bats tonight with several teams having an implied run total over five. We do have some rain threats to be aware of tonight so be sure to check out the weather prior to lock. Pittsburgh, Washington, Detroit, Atlanta, and St. Louis all have rain in the forecast. It's too early to tell if any of those storms will actually impact the games or not. As usual, there is warm weather around the league but nothing standing out. Everything is in the mid 80's or lower, so not a significant advantage anywhere. Let's get to work!

High Priced Pitchers

Trevor Bauer, CLE (@MIN) (DK: $13.3K, FD: $11.8K)

I really don’t want to pay this salary tonight but I’m honestly having a hard time passing on him. It’s a big enough slate where you can find the value you need to make this work, particularly in cash games. He’s just a monster this season and, of all the high priced pitchers we get to choose from on a daily basis, I’d rank him second right now, just behind Chris Sale but ahead of Max Scherzer. Bauer has had at least seven strikeouts in 12 straight starts. Seven of those starts were double-digit strikeouts. In 21 of his 22 starts this season he’s had at least six strikeouts. He has one game, against the Royals, believe it or not, where he was shelled for 11 hits in just 4.2 innings of work and only three strikeouts (if that doesn’t sum up MLB DFS than nothing will). He has a 3.14 SIERA with 31.6% strikeouts and 13.2% swinging strikes. He’s outstanding to both sides of the plate, which is important against the Twins who have multiple switch hitters and can roll out several lefties on any night. Bauer has a 3.25 xFIP, 30.9% strikeouts and a very impressive 5.4% HR/FB against left-handed hitters. Against right-handed hitters, he has a 2.89 xFIP with 32.2% strikeouts and an even more impressive 4.7% HR/FB. The WHIP to both sides of the plate is identical at 1.12. Lefties have a .100 xISO and .269 xwOBA and righties have a .142 xISO and .276 xwOBA against him. There’s legitimately nothing on his resume that concerns me. Even his BABIP against righties is high at .323, suggesting he’s been unlucky despite completely dominating. In his one start against the Twins earlier this season, he actually took the loss, allowing seven runs (but only three of them were earned) and he had 11 strikeouts. He had a 2.32 xFIP that night and the Twins had a very lucky .417 BABIP. The Indians defense committed two costly errors in that game. I'm hearing some chatter about the Twins BvP against Bauer being an issue. It's only three batters, the sample sizes are small, and one of those batters is Joe Mauer. Don't pay any attention to that. Cleveland is a -149 favorite and the Twins have the lowest implied total on the board as of this writing at 3.85. He’s your clear-cut SP1 in cash games and he certainly has the ceiling to get it done in tournaments as well.

Jack Flaherty, STL (vs. COL) (DK: $9.4K, FD: $7.4K)

I like Flaherty on both sites today but he continues to be drastically undervalued on FanDuel. He’s been about $1500 to $2000 less expensive on FanDuel almost every time he’s been on the hill this season. I can’t figure out why that would be but this is the slate we have to work with. He’s matched up today with a Colorado team that is worse against right-handed pitching. They have power, with a .175 ISO (but that’s inflated due to their home park) and a .316 wOBA with 33.7% hard-hits. They also strikeout 23.5% of the time, which gives a nice boost to Flaherty’s already high strikeout rate. More importantly, since it applies to this game, if we look at Colorado’s numbers on the road this season, the ISO drops to .164, the wOBA drops to .300, and the strikeout rate increases slightly to 23.8%. Flaherty has an impressive 3.40 SIERA with 29.7% strikeouts and 12.7% swinging strikes. That’s the third highest strikeout rate on the board today despite being the sixth highest priced pitcher on DraftKings and the 12th most expensive pitcher on FanDuel. Here are some of the pitchers priced higher than Flaherty on FanDuel today: Taillon, Duffy, Gibson, Lester, Godley, Gray, and Leake. WHAT? In the past, his issue was with left-handed hitters, but he’s really made significant improvements in that this season. Last season, left-handed hitters had a .294 xISO and .412 xwOBA against him. This season they have just a .117 xISO and a .295 xwOBA against him. Right-handed hitters have a below average .168 xISO and .285 xwOBA against him as well. He’s only a -115 favorite but that’s because Vegas doesn’t like the Cardinals matchup against Jon Gray either. The Rockies currently have the second lowest implied total on the board today at 3.68. Flaherty is firmly in the conversation for an SP1 in cash if you don’t want to pay up, or in tournaments as well. On FanDuel, at least in my opinion, you pretty much have to play him in cash considering how cheap he is. His floor/ceiling combo isn’t as good as Bauer’s but it’s close enough where it’s worth taking the ridiculous $4.1K savings in salary to spend elsewhere.

Value Pitching

Zack Godley, ARI (vs. TEX) (DK: $7.2K, FD: $8.1K)

Godley has quietly worked his way to a solid 11-6 record in 21 starts this season. His numbers don’t get you overly excited but they definitely don’t make you cringe either. Everything points to positive regression in his future. His 4.30 SIERA is lower than his 4.73 ERA and the BABIP against him is above average at .329. He has 22.9% strikeouts with 11.9% swinging strikes, which suggests an increase in strikeout rate as the season goes on as well. He’ll get a nice boost to those strikeouts today, facing a Texas team that strikes out 25.7% of the time to right-handed pitching (that’s the highest on the slate). He’ll see quite a few left-handed hitters today, where he forces a very high 58.2% groundball rate. His best pitch to lefties is his knuckle curve, which he throws nearly 40% of the time and only allows a .088 xISO and .244 xwOBA against. Not a single player on the Rangers has above average numbers against that pitch type. Against right-handed hitters, the groundball rate drops all the way down to 44.4%, which still isn’t bad. The xFIP also drops all the way to an excellent 3.89. Plus, he has a 24.5% strikeout rate. There’s nothing here that makes me think the Rangers are going to be able to do much damage. It’s a park downgrade for them, they have an implied run total under four runs (3.81) and the Diamondbacks are a massive -181 favorite. I like Godley as an SP2 in cash games and, considering the extra strikeouts he should be able to pick up in this matchup, I’d put him firmly in the conversation for tournaments today as well.

James Shields, CWS (vs. KC) (DK: $6K, FD: $7.2K)

Hell has officially frozen over. After months of abuse from @ZeroInDenver trying to talk me into “Big Game James” (excuse me while I vomit) I’m finally going to give in. I don’t hate this idea tonight. My issue with Shields has always been any lack of a floor/ceiling combination but his floor gets a boost tonight after Kansas City, who was already arguably the worst offense in baseball, traded away its best player over the weekend. Not only was Moustakas their best player, he also had the lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching at just 15%. With him out of the picture, I see two potential lineup possibilities for the Royals. Option one is simply replacing Moustakas with Hunter Dozier, who strikes out more than twice as often (31.9%) or option two is they slide Escobar over to third base and replace him at shortstop with Adalberto Mondesi, who strikes out 26.1% of the time to right-handed pitching. Either way, this should surely increase Shield’s otherwise low ceiling as he has just a 17.8% strikeout rate this season. That doesn’t mean the ceiling is high but this is likely about as high as it gets. He’s quietly flashed some upside more recently. He has 28 strikeouts in his last 23.1 innings pitched. This includes a nine strikeout game in only 5.2 innings against Houston, a seven strikeout game in only four innings against the Angels, and then another seven strikeout game against these same Royals in 6.2 innings. Home runs were ultimately his killer against the Astros and Angels where he gave up three and two, respectively, and was pulled from the game early. But in the game against Kansas City, he didn’t give up any home runs and only two earned runs. Once you get through Perez, Merrifield and Duda, there is just nothing in this lineup to fear. I could honestly see Shields pushing seven or more strikeouts again tonight and being able to limit the runs if he can keep the ball in the park. I would take those numbers all day at his price tag today. Let me be clear, there is NOTHING safe about this idea. His numbers are not good against either side of the plate. This is purely about his matchup against a team that gave up on this season long ago. If there was ever a night to use him, this would be it. Two additional points. First, he's getting some love which I wasn't expecting. If he's chalk. No thanks. I'll be running for the hills. Second, don’t use him on FanDuel. He’s too expensive and you don’t need him on a one pitcher site. I'm going to have nightmares about this later.

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

If you’re new to the article, this is the section where I pick an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder to hit a long ball today. Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential.

Jed Lowrie, OAK: 2B (DK: $4.2K, FD: $3.4K)

The switch hitting second baseman has a ton of power when he bats from the left-side of the plate, and gets a nice matchup today against the right-handed Sam Gaviglio. Lowrie has a .226 ISO, .372 wOBA and 36.1% hard-hit rate against righties. Gaviglio is allowing a .198 xISO, 36.6% fly balls and 10.8% HR/FB. His most used pitch is a sinker, which he throws nearly 50% of the time. Lowrie has an absurd .504 xISO against that pitch type.

Paul Goldschmidt, ARI: 1B (DK: $4.8K, FD: $4.3K)

With the masses running to roster Goldy last night against the lefty and him letting them down, I’m hoping he’ll be lower owned tonight than he should be. I added the “than he should be” part because he’s facing Bartolo Colon, so there’s not chance he’ll go completely under the radar. Colon is allowing a massive 24% HR/FB with 43.1% hard contact. This has resulted in 2.51 HR/9 against right-handed hitters. Goldschmidt has a .216 ISO and 45.7% hard-hits against righties this season. He also crushes Colon’s pitch types (or should I say “type”). He throws a two-seam fastball nearly 70% of the time despite giving up a .259 xISO and 86.2 mph average exit velocity. Goldschmidt has a .451 xISO against two-seam fastballs.

Avisail Garcia, CWS: OF (DK: $4.5K, FD: $3K)

I had considered, for a little while, using Duffy as a value pitcher today because of how often the White Sox strikeout against left-handed pitching. But they also have a ton of power, which ultimately made me change my mind. Garcia is just one example of this power. He has a .220 ISO and a massive 51.7% hard-hit rate against lefties this season. Duffy allows a .228 xISO with 45.9% fly balls and 38% hard contact. He throws a fastball and a changeup most often against right-handed hitters. Garcia has a .241 xISO against fastballs and a .250 xISO against changeups this season.

Value Bats

Similar to the home run watch list, in this section I’ll provide an outfielder, corner infielder, and middle infielder who are priced in the value tier. If I can find someone under priced on both sites, I’ll highlight them. But in some cases it could be site specific.

Jose Martinez, STL: 1B (DK: $3.4K, FD: $2.7K)

It’s no secret that Martinez is in a bit of a slump right now. In the month of July, he’s 17 for 67 with just a .270 wOBA and .016 ISO. He’s yet to hit a home run this month. In fact, he only has one extra base hit. Despite these poor recent results, we know that Martinez is far more talented than this. He has a .188 ISO, .365 wOBA, and 42.4% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season. I’m not falling for his recent results when we see that his season-long sample size paints a far better picture. I’m happy to buy low on him, especially on DraftKings, and hopefully catch him on the night when he catches fire again like he did earlier this season.

Jason Kipnis, CLE: 2B (DK: $3.5K, FD: $3K)

Kipnis is appealing today for a few reasons. First, and most obvious, is his price, which is the whole point of this section of the newsletter. Second, Kyle Gibson is allowing a .343 xwOBA and 39.3% hard contact to lefties. Third, Kipnis profiles very well against Gibson’s pitch types. He throws a fastball, two-seam fastball, and a slider most often to left-handed hitters. Kipnis has a .218 xISO, .346 xwOBA against fastballs, a 272 xISO, .422 xwOBA against two-seam fastballs, and a .193 xISO against sliders. He should bat in the middle three of an offense with one of the higher implied run totals tonight. You could do a lot worse at this position.

Leury Garcia, CWS: OF (DK: $3.7K FD: $2.5K)

I’m recommending both Garcias from the White Sox today (they are not related, I had to Google it). While Avisail has a lot of power upside today, Leury is shaping up to be an excellent value on both sites. He’s a switch hitter, so he should be able to take advantage of Duffy’s struggles with right-handed bats. He also typically bats second in the order when there’s an opposing left-hander on the hill and the White Sox have a healthy 4.70 implied run total (that's up from 4.58 last night). Garcia has a .382 wOBA and 34% hard-hit rate against left-handed pitching this season. It won’t take much for him to reach value at this price tag, especially on FanDuel, and he certainly has the numbers to do it.

Stacks on Stacks 🥞

Oakland Athletics (vs. Sam Gaviglio)

The middle of Oakland’s lineup absolutely smashes sinkers and that’s just the pitch that Gaviglio happens to throw nearly 50% of the time to both sides of the plate. I already mentioned Jed Lowrie as my middle infielder home run call today. He has a .504 xISO and .597 xwOBA against sinkers this season. Khris Davis has a .658 xISO and .623 xwOBA. Matt Olson has a .640 xISO and .730 xwOBA. Finally, Stephen Piscotty, though not nearly as exciting, has a solid .417 xwOBA. Those numbers all sound extreme and unsustainable, so just to be safe, I checked last year as well and everyone had slightly lower, but similar results. In addition to smashing sinkers, the Athletics crush right-handed pitching in general. They have a .184 ISO, .325 wOBA, 107 wRC+ and a 40% hard-hit rate. Oakland has a strong 4.90 implied run total and it wouldn't shock me if that climbed over five runs as we get closer to first pitch. The heart of this order is shaping up to be one of the better stacks of the day.

Atlanta Braves (vs. Dan Straily)

I like to target Marlins pitching when they are away. A lot of times these guys are able to hide mistakes within the massive confines of their home stadium but they get exploited when they get park downgrades traveling on the road. We have that situation today as Straily will try to hide his .196 xISO and .368 xwOBA to lefties and a .294 xISO and .387 xwOBA to righties in a ballpark that is much more hitter friendly. One of the best parts about the Braves is their low 20% strikeout rate. That will make it even more difficult for Straily to get easy outs and escape innings quickly when he only has a 19.3% strikeout rate of his own. My favorite player from this team is obviously Freddie Freeman. He continues to be one of the best players in baseball with his .192 ISO, .375 wOBA and 45.7% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. I also love Ronald Acuna today. He hits righties much better than lefties and will bring a .239 ISO and .365 wOBA into this matchup tonight. Ozzie Albies will bat from the left-side tonight where he has a .231 ISO and .345 wOBA. Culberson (.190 ISO, .360 wOBA), Markakis (.365 wOBA), Suzuki (.326 wOBA), and Camargo (.324 wOBA) are all on the radar tonight as well. The Braves are currently one of four teams that have an implied total over five runs today. With the Red Sox and Yankees being two of those teams, and the Diamondbacks facing Bartolo Colon, I think the Braves wind up as the lowest owned of these teams.

Chicago White Sox (vs. Danny Duffy)

I mentioned it earlier but I was almost immediately drawn to Danny Duffy when I first started looking at this slate. The White Sox have the highest strikeout rate in baseball against left-handed pitching at 25.9%. But despite that strikeout upside, Duffy has a ton of red flags and this White Sox team has a lot of power. He’s allowing a .228 xISO and .363 xwOBA to right-handed batters. He has an ugly 5.30 xFIP, 1.53 WHIP and gives up 38% hard contact. Obviously, since I talked about Avisail Garcia in the home run watch list and Leury Garcia in the value bat section, they are two of my favorite players from this team. Can you think of a better way to start a stack? One very high upside player and another value upside player that will save you some salary. I love using Matt Davidson against lefties because of his .279 ISO, .381 wOBA, and 50% hard-hit rate. Just know those numbers also include a 30% strikeout rate, so he’s extremely boom or bust (much like this entire team). Jose Abreu is another guy who crushes lefties with a .232 ISO and .362 wOBA. Tim Anderson will likely bat leadoff today and he has a .186 ISO and 33.3% hard-hits. I’m assuming Kevan Smith will start at catcher since he’s a right-handed bat. It’s a small sample size but so far he has an impressive .407 wOBA against left-handed pitching. I don’t hate him as a punt catcher tonight or part of a stack. The White Sox are my sneaky stack, especially if the rest of the field considers Duffy a pitching option like I initially did. They opened with a 4.58 implied run total today that has climbed to 4.7 this morning. They should be well off the radar in large field tournaments.

What stack do you like today? Head over to Twitter to vote on your favorite stack. Got another suggestion? Let us know in the comments.

The Bullpen Report

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @glandry if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@GP_Landry). Don't forget to sign up for the freeroll!

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