Did you guys hear DeMarcus Cousins signed with the Warriors? There’s been nothing on Twitter about it….

Sorry, couldn’t resist but now it’s time for baseball. Shoutout to LineStar fantasy expert @jdrujon for landing in the top three of the freeroll again this week (using the same lineup he used to beat the crap out of me in our head to head last night - rematch?) We’ve got a solid twelve game slate to talk about today. Pitching is interesting, as I’m not looking to use anyone priced over $10K. Kershaw is still working on building his pitch count up and, until he gets that to a reasonable level, I refuse to pay his salary. Flaherty has plenty of upside but Arizona can roll out too many left-handed bats, which concerns me. I’ll make a case to actually stack against Greinke later in this article. That leaves us fishing in more of the mid-tier for pitching today and there are a couple of arms I like quite a bit. There are a couple of guys in the value-tier as well, that I wouldn’t call “safe” but should be able to minimize the risk, and are cheap enough that I’m willing to take a shot on them. It’s another Coors slate, and unlike last night where it didn’t feel like we needed exposure given two respectable arms on the mound, you’re going to want bats from this game today. The O/U is already at 12 and it should continue to climb this afternoon. Hot and humid temperatures will continue to play a role in our decision making. Philadelphia (88 degrees), New York (85 degrees), Cincinnati (90 degrees), Texas (103 degrees), Colorado (92 degrees), and Kansas City (96 degrees) are all places we can give a significant bump to the bats. As of now, I’m seeing little to no threat of rain anywhere, but with this heat and humidity, pop up storms are always a possibility, so be sure you leave time to check the weather pre-lock. We’ve got plenty to discuss today so let’s go ahead and get started.

Power Pitching Options

Zach Eflin, PHI (vs. BAL) (DK: $9.9K, FD: $9.1K)

Eflin gets a nice matchup with a struggling Baltimore Orioles team that has below average numbers against right-handed pitching across the board. They enter today with a .162 ISO, .293 wOBA, and 83 wRC+. They also have a very low 31.5% hard-hit rate and a very high 24.7% strikeout rate. All of these things put Eflin in the driver’s seat of what should be an exploitable matchup. On the season, he has a 3.67 SIERA with 24.5% strikeouts. He’ll see at least seven right-handed bats today, where he has a 3.73 xFIP and 23.3% strikeout rate while allowing just a .084 ISO and .250 wOBA. He’s only giving up 2.90% HR/FB and 27.5% hard contact to right-handed batters so far this season. Against lefties, Eflin has a very respectable 3.74 xFIP with 26% strikeouts. The ISO increases to .183 and the wOBA increases to .319 but neither of these numbers are concerning enough for me to not want Eflin in this spot. In the month of June, Eflin allowed 82 batted balls of which 22% were soft contact and the average exit velocity was just 85.7 mph. The BABIP to both sides of the plate is right around the league average and his SIERA and xFIP are both aligned pretty closely with his ERA, so I don’t see much in terms of possible regression here. Overall, this looks like a very solid spot with the potential for a little extra upside, given how often Baltimore is striking out this season. At this point, the only red flag is the weather, as this is a hitter’s park and it’s going to be in the upper 80's around first pitch. Still, he’s a very comfortable -161 favorite and I’ll take my chances in this matchup despite the poor pitching conditions. He's my top arm of the day.

Shane Bieber, CLE (@KC) (DK: $9.6K, FD: $8.2K)

The "Bieber Fever" train rolls on and makes it’s next stop today in Kansas City where he will take on the Royals. I have to admit, after watching Kluber labor through last night’s game, I’m not getting the “warm and fuzzies” I was expecting when I saw that Bieber was on this slate. What I’m not sure of is whether or not Kluber’s struggles were due to poor pitching conditions (which we have again today) or if something is just generally off with him right now. We did talk yesterday about how inconsistent he’s been recently and it’s possible he’s fighting through something at the moment. But even without having his best stuff, Kluber still managed to find his way to a quality start against the worst offense in baseball, and that’s what gives me confidence about Bieber today. If the floor still ends up as a quality start, then I have plenty of interest in that pitcher. He’s been absolutely money since joining the Indians, with a 3.02 SIERA, 26.2% strikeout rate, and 12.3% swinging strike rate while only walking 3.9% of batters faced. He’s deadly against right-handed bats, with a 1.89 xFIP, 25% strikeout rate and zero walks. He’s also forcing a ridiculous 66.7% groundball rate, which has kept him from allowing a single home run to a right-handed bat so far. He has a .000 ISO and .220 wOBA against him, despite his xFIP being almost identical to his ERA and the BABIP actually being high at .333. That’s insane. Lefties, however, can give him a little trouble (though I think he’s been a bit unlucky so far). He has a far less super-human 4.05 xFIP with a .226 ISO and .399 wOBA against him. But the BABIP here is very high at .429, and that should regress toward the league average over time and help some of these numbers improve as well. He also still maintains a 27.1% strikeout rate, so the upside is there despite the added risk when facing a left-handed batter. Besides, outside of Mike Moustakas (who’s a sneaky one-off today) who are we really worried about in this lineup? Anyone? Buehler? No? Yea, me neither. I do wish it wasn’t going to be 96 degrees in Kansas City, as that definitely increases the risk but it doesn’t change the fact that the Royals have just a .122 ISO, .286 wOBA, and 78 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season. Bieber is a heavy -215 favorite today and strongly in consideration for both cash games and tournaments on this slate.

Value Pitching Options

Clayton Richard, SD (@OAK) (DK: $6.8K, FD: $8.7K)

I don’t love nor hate this spot for Richard, but I can buy him on DraftKings with his very cheap price tag. He’s a complete stay away on FanDuel at $8.7K. He takes on an Oakland team that you would think crushes left-handed pitching with some of the bats in their lineup, but they are honestly mediocre at best. They have some power, with a .171 ISO and 40.8% hard-hit rate, but they also have a below average .300 wOBA and 92 wRC+. They also strikeout an unhealthy 23.7% of the time. Basically, they are hitting a bomb or they are striking out when facing a lefty. I think this works out well for Richard, who has respectable, but not overwhelming stuff. The 18.7% strikeout rate is certainly not ideal but the extra strikeouts in this Oakland lineup should help give him a little lift there. His 3.91 SIERA and 1.23 WHIP lead me to believe he’s keeping games under control. The most appealing part about Richard is his groundball rate, which is currently the highest in baseball at 57.7% (for qualified pitchers). He’s not going to push for double-digit strikeouts but he’s going to keep his team in contention, limit the runs, and eat up innings. A lot of innings. Since May 8th, here is Richard’s innings pitched per start: 8, 8, 7.1, 6, 7, 7, 7, 6, 6, 7. He’ll take the power lefties in this lineup completely out of the equation with his 2.98 xFIP and 73.2% groundball rate. He also gets a strikeout boost against lefties at 21.5%. Against right-handed bats, he’s still solid with a 3.93 xFIP and a 53.3% groundball rate but the strikeout rate drops to 17.8% and the hard contact increases to 42.9%. Khris Davis is hitting right-handed pitching better than left-handed pitching this season, but he’s still a threat. Chad Pinder is crushing lefties this year and Mark Canha has solid numbers as well, assuming he makes the lineup. But those are really the only three guys we are worried about. If you’re rostering him today, you’re hoping for a solid floor and opening up some salary so you can fit in the Coors bats. He should be able to pitch deep into the game, limit the runs, and pick up enough strikeouts to reach value. In a slate that lacks value pitching options today, I’m strongly considering him as an SP2 in DraftKings.

Ryan Yarbrough, TB (@MIA) (DK: $6.2K, FD: $6.1K)

Unfortunately, this won’t be as sneaky as it should be. Originally, the plan was for Ryne Stanek to open, like he usually does, and then have Yarbrough enter sometime around the second or third inning. The Rays ended up using Stanek in relief during last night’s game, however, so now Yarbrough is just going to start normally. So, we won’t get to take advantage of the “NS” symbols next to his name that might keep the masses from using him, but it’s still a good spot for his price. He has a respectable 4.03 SIERA that is just slightly above his 3.76 ERA and a 21% strikeout rate. When we check out the splits, he has a 3.90 xFIP with a 25.3% strikeout rate against left-handed batters. He does allow some power, with a 21% HR/FB rate on 35.8% fly balls and a .192 ISO but I’m not overly concerned about lefty vs. lefty matchups in this huge ballpark. Against right-handed batters, the xFIP increases to 4.50 and the strikeouts drop to 19.6% but they still have just a .151 ISO and .311 wOBA against him this season. What’s the key to Yarbrough’s success despite less than overpowering stuff? He forces 20.8% soft contact which results in an average exit velocity of just 79.8 mph against left-handed batters and a 22.5% soft contact rate with an average exit velocity of just 80.3 mph against right-handed batters. He’s coming off a very strong outing against a right-handed heavy Houston Astros team where he went 6.1 innings scattering seven hits and allowing just one earned run with four strikeouts in a tough-luck 1-0 loss. Today, he gets a much more favorable matchup against another right-handed heavy team in the Miami Marlins, who have just a .107 ISO, .279 wOBA and 75 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. When the Vegas information comes out, I expect this game to have a low total in this pitcher friendly-ballpark and Yarbrough should be a comfortable favorite. He’s a nice value option on tonight’s slate, especially as an SP2 on DraftKings.

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

>>> HRW brought to you by Daily Matchup Tool <<<

It's a Coors slate so every batter that steps into the box in that park is a threat for a home run. Since that's a bit obvious, I will leave those players off of the home run list and focus on other places where we can find some dingers.

• Nelson Cruz (vs. Andrew Heaney): Death, taxes, and Nelson Cruz against left-handed pitching (yea, yea, I know I've used that line before with Paul Goldschmidt but they are both that good against lefties). Heaney struggles with power right-handed batters. He’s allowing a 14.1% HR/FB rate on 41.7% fly balls and a 41.1% hard contact rate. This has resulted in a .206 ISO and .230 xISO so far this season. Cruz has a .418 ISO and 50.9% hard-hit rate against left-handed pitching. It only gets better when we look at pitch types. Heaney throws his sinker, changeup, and curveball most often against right-handed hitting. Cruz’s combined numbers against those pitch types are a .418 ISO and a ridiculous 91.6 mph average exit velocity.

• Rhys Hoskins (vs. Alex Cobb): Cobb gives up massive power to both sides of the plate. Against righties, he’s allowing a .243 ISO and 85.8 mph average exit velocity. Hoskins is showing more power against right-handed pitching this season than left-handed pitching. He has a .264 ISO and 35.5% hard-hit rate. Cobb throws a fastball just over 65% of the time to right-handed bats. Hoskins crushes fastballs with a .368 ISO and 29.3-degree launch angle.

• Max Muncy (vs. Ivan Nova): Nova has an incredibly low 12.4% strikeout rate with a .232 xISO while allowing an average exit velocity of 85 mph against left-handed batters this season. Muncy, along with several other Dodgers, is crushing righties. He has a .372 ISO and 45.5% hard-hit rate. Nova throws a mix of pitches including a four-seam and two-seam fastball as well as a changeup and curveball. Each of these are pitches Muncy hits very well for power. He has a .317 ISO against the two-seam, a .333 ISO against the four-seam, a .226 ISO against the changeup and a .375 ISO against curveballs that come from right-handed pitchers. If you’re still not convinced, Muncy had 10 home runs in the month of June with a .421 ISO and .484 wOBA.

• Scott Schebler (vs. Lucas Giolito): I’ve ridiculed Giolito often in this article about how awful he is against left-handed batters. I certainly won’t be stopping this today as he’ll take on a Reds team that is loaded with left-handed power and plays in, arguably, the best park in baseball for left-handed home runs. Talk about a nightmare for Giolito. He walks more batters (16%) than he strikes out (9.20%) while allowing a 10.4% HR/FB on 45% fly balls. He’s giving up a .220 ISO (.247 xISO) and 85.8 mph average exit velocity. Schebler has a .213 ISO and a 41.6% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season.

• Yan Gomes, CLE (vs. Danny Duffy): Duffy is giving up nearly 48% fly balls and 14.8% HR/FB as well as a terrible 40.3% hard contact rate. This has resulted in 1.95 HR/9 against right-handed batters, including a .221 ISO (.262 xISO). Gomes continues to crush left-handed pitching with a very impressive .262 ISO and 50% hard-hit rate against lefties. He also fills a need at a challenging catcher position.

Stacks on Stacks 🥞

• Colorado Rockies (vs. Chris Stratton): Here we have a low strikeout pitcher at just 18.1% who allows 37.7% hard contact to lefties and a massive 49.6% hard contact rate to righties, taking the mound at Coors Field. To recap, we have a pitcher who can’t create many strikeouts and gives up a ton of hard contact pitching in the best hitter’s environment in baseball. Left-handed batters have a .221 xISO and .379 xwOBA against him while right-handed bats have a .211 xISO and .367 xwOBA against him so far this season. Charlie Blackmon tops the list with a .236 ISO, .352 wOBA. After him, Iannetta (.222 ISO, .370 wOBA), Story (.214 ISO, .346 wOBA), Arenado (.203 ISO, .333 wOBA), Gonzalez (.199 ISO, .344 wOBA), Desmond (.177 ISO), Parra (.378 wOBA) are the priorities. But, everyone is in play here.

• San Francisco Giants (vs. Antonio Senzatela): Senzatela started this season in the Colorado bullpen before being sent down to build up his pitch count. In eight starts this season in Triple-A, he’s 3-1 with a 3.45 xFIP and a huge 28% strikeout rate. He’s forcing 47.8% groundballs and has only given up one home run so far this entire season. As far as major league numbers are concerned, however, if we combine his short time with the big club this season and last season, we have a large enough sample size to work with. He has a 4.47 SIERA with only 18% strikeouts but he continues to do a good job creating groundballs at 51.8% to lefties and 50.4% to righties. His numbers suggest improvement against right-handed batters, with a 4.07 xFIP that is well below his 5.83 ERA and a .316 BABIP. Against lefties, however, his numbers show signs of regression on the way, which is why I would prioritize them first in your stacks today. His 4.55 xFIP is well above his 3.80 ERA and the low .262 BABIP tells us he’s been a little lucky with balls in play so far. Alen Hanson, assuming he plays after getting last night off, is my favorite Giant today with his .341 ISO and .423 wOBA in 90 plate appearances. Belt is next with a .281 ISO, .421 wOBA and 49.6% hard-hit rate. Hernandez (.197 ISO, .362 wOBA, 41.1% hard-hit rate), Crawford (.172 ISO, .381 wOBA), and Sandoval (.358 wOBA, 46.2% hard-hit rate) are all on the radar as well. McCutchen’s ISO and wOBA against right-handed pitching is below average (.162 ISO, .331 wOBA) but he does have a 47.6% hard-hit rate that could cause some damage in this park, so don't be afraid to use him.

• Cinncinatti Reds (vs. Lucas Giolito): I’m having déjà vu. Last week, I wrote up the Twins, who have several left-handed power bats, as the perfect team to stack against Lucas Giolito, who is horrendous against lefties, and they went out and did nothing with that opportunity. Despite the bad taste that left in my mouth, the Reds are another really poor matchup for Giolito, so I’m going to go right back to the well and stack against him. On the season, Giolito has a 6.01 SIERA with a 13.2% strikeout rate and 13.2% walk rate. That information alone should be enough for you to know stacking against this guy is likely to be a profitable decision. But wait, it gets better. Against left-handed batters, he has a 7.42 xFIP with 9.2% strikeouts and a 16% walk rate. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a pitcher before with a real chance of having a higher xFIP than strikeout rate. You can stack the Reds anyway you want today, but clearly, those left-handed power bats are the priority. Schebler, who I discussed in the home run watchlist today, is my favorite, and Gennett is close behind with his .179 ISO and .375 wOBA against right-handed pitching. Votto doesn’t have the same power he once did with a .166 ISO but his .412 wOBA puts him firmly in play as part of a stack today. Jesse Winker (.347 wOBA) is also on the radar. Eugenio Suarez is obviously not a left-handed batter but he still has a team-leading .258 ISO and .381 wOBA against right-handed pitching so I wouldn’t leave him out.

• Cleveland Indians (vs. Danny Duffy): To say the Indians have jumped out to a hot start in July would be an understatement. They scored 15 runs on Sunday and followed it up with another 9 runs last night. I don’t see Danny Duffy being the pitcher who stops that streak from continuing today. Duffy only allows a .100 ISO and .265 wOBA to left-handed batters, but the .167 xISO, .362 xwOBA, and 40.4% hard contact rate suggest he’s got some regression coming his way. I would never encourage you to force in a lefty vs lefty matchup, but if you’re rolling out a ton of Cleveland stacks today, I think you’re fine to include Brantley and Kipnis as part of that. I’m really interested in the right-handed bats though, where Duffy is giving up a .221 ISO (.262 xISO), .357 wOBA (.381 xwOBA), and 40.3% hard contact rate. We already talked about Yan Gomes, who fills in a difficult catcher position. Lindor is fresh off a two home run night and has a .229 ISO and .441 wOBA against left-handed pitching. Guyer (.228 ISO, .362 wOBA), Ramirez (.213 ISO, .366 wOBA), Gonzalez (.200 ISO, .334 wOBA), Alonso (.185 ISO) are all my favorite options from this team, depending on who makes the lineup. Encarnacion does not have a great ISO or wOBA against lefties this season but he does have a 48% hard-hit rate, so I’d expect his numbers to improve and I think he’s perfectly fine as part of stacks today.

• Los Angeles Dodgers (vs. Ivan Nova): When I did my original draft of this article last night, I had the Dodgers as a sneaky stack for the second day in a row. When I woke up this morning and saw they had scored 17 runs, I realized they were no longer going to be sneaky. So I’m going to leave them in the article because I really like them again today, but I’ll add in another team as a sneaky option. Hopefully you read this article yesterday and had some Dodgers exposure. Today, they’ll face Ivan Nova, who has just a 12.3% strikeout rate with a .232 xISO and .375 xwOBA against left-handed batters and a .203 ISO and 35% hard contact rate against right-handed batters. As they displayed last night, the Dodgers are just destroying right-handed pitching this season. Muncy, who is on the home run watchlist today (and has been a lot recently), is my favorite. Pederson (.325 ISO, .412 wOBA) is a close second. Kemp (.205 ISO, .371 wOBA), Puig (.223 ISO, .367 wOBA), Bellinger (.254 ISO, .349 wOBA), Grandal (.227 ISO, .346 wOBA), Taylor (.183 ISO, .333 wOBA), and Hernandez (.257 ISO, .328 wOBA) are all in play. Just like yesterday, I don’t love Turner’s numbers against right-handed pitching but he does still have a 37.8% hard-hit rate, so I wouldn’t leave him out of a multi-entry stacking situation.

• St. Louis Cardinals (vs. Zack Greinke): I think Greinke will be popular today. At this point, people are smart enough to know that Kershaw is not worth his salary until he gets his pitch count built back up. The Dodgers are being extremely cautious with him (rightfully so) and I wouldn’t expect him to go much past 80 pitches, which makes his $12K salary nearly impossible to pay. Instead, I think people are likely to pay down to Greinke, who has plenty of upside (25.7% strikeout rate) but I think he comes with far too much risk today. The Cardinals are a right-handed heavy lineup and Greinke is allowing a .202 ISO with 15.9% HR/FB on 41.6% fly balls and a massive 44% hard contact rate to righties this season. Tyler O’Neill was recalled yesterday and I’d expect him to be in the lineup today. He has a .294 ISO and .356 wOBA against right-handed pitching so far this season. Molina (.226 ISO, .353 wOBA), Martinez (.215 ISO, .380 wOBA), Pham (.179 ISO, 46.8% hard-hit rate), and Ozuna (46.1% hard-hit rate) are all in play. Matt Carpenter is a lefty but never leave him out of Cardinals stacks. Greinke is still allowing 41.9% hard contact to lefties this season and Carpenter has a .247 ISO, .384 wOBA, and 50.9% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. The only downside to this stack is a potential matchup with a tough Arizona bullpen, should they get to Greinke early, but they'll be low owned enough that the reward outweighs the risk here.

The Bullpen

• Cleveland Indians (vs. Kansas City Royals): I will stack against the Royals basically every night of the week regardless of the team that is facing them. They don’t have any starting pitching that would make me want to stay away and this bullpen just adds to the fire.

• New York Mets (vs. Marco Estrada): The Mets get a nice park upgrade today going to Toronto to take on Marco Estrada, who loves to give up fly balls and home runs. The Mets can still hold it together against right-handed pitching and make for an interesting long-shot stack in a large field GPP today. Estrada will be backed up by the Blue Jays struggling bullpen who has a 4.31 xFIP with 12% HR/FB on 41.7% fly balls.

Spots to Avoid:

• Los Angeles Angels (vs. Seattle Mariners): I took a long look at the Angels against Wade LeBlanc. Surprisingly, LeBlanc is okay against right-handed batters and the Angels are actually worse than you’d think against left-handed pitching, considering all the right-handed bats they have. Plus, even if the Angels get through LeBlanc, they’d have to take on a Seattle bullpen that has a 3.84 xFIP and 26.2% strikeout rate this season.

• Pittsburgh Pirates (vs. Los Angeles Dodgers): Don’t try to get cute and stack against Kershaw today knowing that he’s on a pitch count. He should be able to go deep enough (around 80 pitches) to take away the appeal of that anyway, but even if he didn’t, the Dodgers bullpen is above average this season with a 4.05 xFIP, 12.2% swinging strike rate, and just a 29.9% hard contact rate, which is the second best of all teams in the majors this season.

You’re going to want Coors exposure today, so just keep that in mind during roster construction. I think they need to be a priority. The total in that game will be at least 12.5 runs, if not higher, before roster lock tonight, with two bad pitchers and 90+ degree weather. I think I’ve given you a map to get that done. Avoid the over $10K pitchers and try to pair a mid-tier guy (Bieber, Eflin) with a value-tier guy (Yarbrough, Richard). Once again, Cleveland is my favorite pivot off of Coors today, if you want to play the ownership card in tournaments. I can’t say no to a powerful offense in a good hitting environment, on the road with the guaranteed nine innings to bat, against bad pitching from start to finish between Duffy and the Royals bullpen. There are too many opportunities there for the Indians not to get something going and they are extremely hot at the moment. Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @glandry if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@GP_Landry). See you back here tomorrow for some 4th of July baseball!

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