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Happy almost weekend everyone! What typically comes after a slate with really bad pitching options? One with really good pitching options. Exactly what we have tonight. This slate is LOADED with arm talent including Sale, Scherzer, Kershaw, Foltynewicz, Bumgarner, Carrasco, and Greinke. Don’t worry though, despite all the pitching talent, this is a huge slate and we have plenty of bats to work with. First off, it’s a Coors slate, with two lefties taking the hill. The Yankees and the Red Sox are both at home and competing with the teams at Coors for the highest total on the slate. The defending World Series Champion Astros are right in that mix as well. Even the Pirates are up over five implied runs today against Jason Vargas, making his first start back off the DL. We’ve got a lot to discuss today. Before we jump in, let’s just quickly touch on the weather. Tampa Bay at Baltimore is looking VERY risky with a big rain threat. As a reminder, if you roster players in a game that starts, but is then postponed before it becomes an official game, then all the players’ stats from that game technically never happened and, therefore, you lose any fantasy points you would have accumulated. Just know the risk before you roster anyone in a game like that. Outside of Baltimore, New York and Colorado have some rain threats but both look minimal. It’s cooler around the league today (no game in Texas) with most places in the 70's or low 80's. Alright, 15-game slate. Let’s go!
High Priced Pitchers
Max Scherzer, WAS (@MIA) (DK: $13.9K, FD: $11.5K)
I know, I know. LineStar user @DocaBoa put it best in chat this morning “Miami is the ultimate pitcher troll team…” Truer words have never been spoken my friend. Scherzer is expensive, Miami is a pesky team that seems to always beat up on elite pitching, and he has faced them twice already with poor results in both games. I’ve heard and seen all of it. But this could also mean we get some seriously low ownership on him. The cat is out of the bag at this point in the season. People don’t like rostering pitchers against Miami. He’s also more expensive today on DraftKings than Chris Sale, who’s in a near perfect spot on tonight’s slate. Nobody is going to pay up for Scherzer and that makes him an elite tournament option. Regardless of his recent performance, he’s still Max Scherzer. He was the starting pitcher for the National League All-Star team. Put aside his recent games against these guys and just know that he’s going to face a right-handed heavy Marlins lineup that still only has a .128 ISO, .303 wOBA, and 90 wRC+. Scherzer has a 2.71 xFIP, 37.4% strikeout rate, and a 0.83 WHIP against right-handed batters this season. If he’s going to be chalk, then no thanks, I’ll gladly pivot elsewhere as there are several options on this slate. But judging by the comments I’ve already seen in chat and on Twitter, I don’t think that’s going to be the case. Does that mean he’ll automatically go out there and do well? No, he could still go out and get another 12 DraftKings points (like he did the last two times he faced Miami) and crush any lineups that you have him in. But he’s still got that 40+ DraftKings point ceiling as well, so if the ownership is really going to be as low as I think it is, I may seriously lock him into my tournament lineups tonight. Scherzer isn’t safe, which sounds crazy to say because this is Max Freaking Scherzer, but he’s not. But if he brings it tonight, and nobody else plays him, you’ll be busy counting money for the next two days. Don’t go here in cash, just play Sale and move on. But in tournaments, I’m planning to be all over this one unless his popularity appears to grow throughout the day.
Chris Sale, BOS (vs. MIN) (DK: $13.5K, FD: $12.8K)
A lefty against the Twins is always a good decision. When that lefty happens to be Chis Sale? No brainer. He’s your top pitcher of the day and the clear-cut cash game arm that you’re paying up for, in my opinion. The Twins are terrible against left-handed pitchers with only a .120 ISO, .298 wOBA, and 85 wRC+. They have a low 32.6% hard-hit rate and they strikeout 23.5% of the time against lefties. Sale has a 37.5% strikeout rate and a 16% swinging strike rate. He’s had double-digit strikeouts in five of his last six games. Against lefties, he has an absurd 1.79 xFIP, 39.8% strikeout rate, and only 3.4% walks. Against righties, he has a 2.53 xFIP with 37% strikeouts and only 6.4% walks. In the past month, he has just an 85.1 mph average exit velocity, an average distance of 182 feet, and has only allowed two barreled balls. The Twins are hitting just .220 against him in 73 at-bats. In fact, Sale faced them just over a month ago and went seven innings, allowing three hits, two earned runs, one walk, and had 11 strikeouts. He’s expensive, but on a slate this size, you should be able to find enough value to make him work. The last point I’ll make is that Sale has had over 30 DraftKings points in six straight starts (three of those were over 40 points). Sale is your guy, don’t over think it.
Value Pitching
Marcus Stroman, TOR (@CWS) (DK: $7.3K, FD: $8K)
I really like this spot for Stroman. The two real negatives with him are his low strikeout rate (18.6%) and his high hard contact allowed (39.1%). But, his matchup will help with both of those concerns tonight. Chicago has one of the highest strikeout rates in baseball against right-handed pitching at 25.3% and one of the lowest hard-hit rates at just 30.3%. This is a nice upgrade for Stroman. Outside of the strikeouts and hard contact, he’s pretty solid. He has a respectable 4.04 SIERA and he forces 61.7% groundballs. He has struggled with lefties this season, but should have some positive regression coming. His 3.91 xFIP is significantly lower than his 6.56 ERA and the BABIP is well over average at .345. He’s still getting 61.2% groundballs. Against righties, it’s a pretty similar situation. His 3.72 xFIP is lower than his 4.34 ERA. The strikeout rate increases a bit to 20.9% and he’s still getting 62.3% groundballs. Since his return from the disabled list, he’s 3-2 with a 3.59 xFIP, 63.1% groundball rate, and 27 strikeouts in 35.2 innings. During that same span, he’s allowed 69 batted balls, of which 66.7% have been groundballs and only 13% have been have been hard contact (26.1% soft contact). The average exit velocity is only 86.2 mph and the average distance is a ridiculous 161.9 feet. He’s really been strong and this matchup really does lineup well for him. He’s a -128 favorite today and I like him as an SP2 in both cash and tournaments.
CC Sabathia, NYY (vs. KC) (DK: $6.9K, FD: $7.8K)
Sabathia is not a pitcher I find myself rostering very often but there is a lot to like about him in this spot tonight. For starters, he’s a massive -285 favorite and the Royals have the fourth lowest implied run total on the board today at just 3.14. Kansas City has only a .126 ISO, .296 wOBA, and 84 wRC+ against left-handed pitching and they strikeout 23.2% of the time. He’s only striking out 17.9% of batters he faces but his 10.2% swinging strike rate suggests he should see an increase in the strikeout rate over the remainder of the season. What I like most about Sabathia is he’s learned how to pitch to contact and limit the damage despite no longer having overpowering strikeout abilities. He’s allowing only a .105 xISO, a 272 xwOBA, and 18% hard contact hard contact to lefties. This will help to control two of the biggest power bats in this Kansas City lineup (Moustakas and Duda). He’s allowing a .161 xISO and .314 xISO and 32% hard contact against right-handed hitters. Obviously, these numbers are worse, but nothing stands out. The expected ISO and wOBA are both below average and the hard contact is only slightly above average. Sabathia’s statcast numbers from the past month are really strong as well. He’s getting 49.1% groundballs, a low 22.6% hard contact rate and a high 24.5% hard contact rate. The average exit velocity is just 87.1 mph and he’s only given up 3 barreled balls during that span. He’s far from a sexy choice, but the floor is strong in this matchup. He should be able to eat up some innings, limit any major damage, and pick up a few strikeouts and the win along the way. I like him as an SP2 in cash games and he’ll open up the salary you need for Sale.
#HomeRunWatchList 💥
Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential.
Nick Williams, OF (DK: $3.9K, FD: $2.7K): He turned out to be an awesome value play yesterday and I’m going right back to the well today, but this time as a home run call. The Reds will roll out yet another pitcher who can’t hold his own against left-handed hitters. The matchup sets up perfectly for Williams who has a .214 ISO and 34% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. DeSclafani allows a .398 xISO to lefties including a .590 xISO on his fastball, which he throws nearly 50% of the time. He also throws a slider 24.5% of the time. Williams has a .245 xISO against fastballs and a .324 xISO against sliders.
Edwin Encarnacion, 1B (DK: $4.3K, FD: $3.9K): Fiers is allowing a .235 xISO to right-handed hitters this season. He’s giving up 43.9% fly balls and 35.5% hard contact. Encarnacion has a .280 ISO and 42.2% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. Fiers throws a fastball, slider, and changeup most often to righties and Encarnacion smashes each of them with his .357 xISO against fastballs, .308 xISO against sliders, and a .465 xISO against changeups.
Asdrubal Cabrera, 2B (DK: $4.1K, FD: $3K): For my middle infielder spot today, I’m going to go with the switch hitting Cabrera. This isn’t the best park for home runs but Nova has issues with left-handed hitters. First and foremost, he can’t strike them out. He has only 11.9% strikeouts against lefties. Secondly, he allows a .270 xISO, 40% fly balls, and 13.2% HR/FB. That’s more than enough for Cabrera to work with. He has a .235 xISO and massive 43.7% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching.
Value Bats
Rafael Devers, 3B (DK: $3.5K, FD: $2.9K): Devers makes for a cheap bat in the middle of a powerful offense that has one of highest implied totals tonight behind the teams at Coors Field and the Yankees. Lynn has some really awful numbers against lefties including a very low 14.4% strikeout rate and a very high 16% walk rate. Devers has a .196 ISO and 37% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season.
Jeff McNeil, 2B/3B (DK: $3.1K, FD: $2K): McNeil had an impressive major league debut last night going 1 for 2 with 2 walks and a run scored. He gets a favorable matchup today against Ivan Nova who we highlighted already because of his issues with lefties. McNeil has been incredibly impressive in both Double-A (57 games, 1.029 OPS, .299 ISO, .447 wOBA, 181 wRC+) and Triple–A (31 games, 1.027 OPS, .232 ISO, .438 wOBA, and 164 wRC+). The assumption is that the Mets are viewing McNeil as their second basemen of the future and his promotion could be a proactive move with the Mets looking to possibly trade Cabrera before the deadline. Make sure he cracks the lineup today but he’s in a great spot and an excellent value if he does.
Kike Hernandez, SS/OF (DK: $3K, FD: $2.9K): Hernandez is WAY too cheap on DraftKings today. I agree it’s not the best matchup in the world against Folynewicz, who is excellent against righties with a 2.93 xFIP and nearly 30% strikeout rate. But $3K on DraftKings? He’s far more talented than what that price would lead you to believe, even if it’s not a good spot. He has a ton of power this season with a .259 ISO against right-handed pitching to go along with a slightly above average .332 wOBA. I’m not going to go out of my way to roster him against Folynewicz but if I landed here and it made the rest of my lineup fit, I wouldn’t be upset about it.
Stacks on Stacks 🥞
I’m going to exclude the Red Sox, Yankees, and both teams at Coors Field to prevent stating the obvious. You guys don’t need me to tell you that they are all excellent stacking options.
Cleveland Indians (vs. Mike Fiers): We have this cluster of teams that I really like who all have implied run totals just below five. We’ll start with the Cleveland Indians who should fly under the radar despite a very comfortable 4.94 implied run total of their own. They will take on Mike Fiers, who has a .246 xISO, .354 xwOBA, and allows 37.1% hard contact to left-handed hitters. This means Ramirez (.362 ISO, .444 wOBA vs RHP), Brantley (.199 ISO, .375 wOBA vs RHP), Lindor (.282 ISO, .371 wOBA vs RHP), and Alonso (.192 ISO, .344 wOBA vs RHP) are all even better options than usual. Fiers has a .235 xISO, .335 xwOBA, and 35.5% hard contact to right-handed hitters. Encarnacion is a member of the home run watch list tonight with good reason. A sneakier option from this team that I would really like if he cracks the lineup is Erik Gonzalez. He has a .383 wOBA and 42.5% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching in 56 at-bats this season. He also has a .239 xISO and .382 xwOBA against sliders, which is a pitch that Fiers throws often to right-handed hitters. He’ll likely hit at the bottom of the order (if at all) so you could consider him as part of a wrap-around stack to really make your team different from the field.
Toronto Blue Jays (vs. Reynaldo Lopez): I love stacking Toronto against right-handed pitching. Their lineup is significantly better. They add Granderson at the top with a .190 ISO and .335 wOBA, Grichuk is next, who has reverse splits and destroys right-handed pitching with his .288 ISO and .341 wOBA. Then you’ve got Smoak and Morales who are both switch hitters and both significantly better against righties than lefties. Teoscar Hernandez has a .214 ISO and 40.1% hard-hit rate. You also have Dwight Smith Jr. as a salary saver option. He’s got a .250 ISO and .383 wOBA in 53 plate appearances in the majors this season. Even Aledmys Diaz has a .192 ISO. The point is, there’s a lot of power in this lineup and several of these guys are priced under $4K. Lopez has a very weak 5.30 SIERA and only 16.4% strikeouts. He’s allowing .212 xISO and .349 xwOBA to lefties and .200 xISO and .367 xwOBA to righties. The Blue Jays make an excellent tournament stack today that should see most of their players with single digit ownership.
Philadelphia Phillies (vs. Anthony DeSclafani): The Phillies stack worked out amazing last night and I’m going right back to it again today. You could honestly take the exact same write-up about the Phillies I did yesterday and paste it into today’s newsletter and then just swap out Tyler Mahle’s name for Anthony DeSclafani’s. Both of them struggle a lot with left-handed bats and Philadelphia, as they displayed last night, has plenty of power from that side of the plate. What’s funny though is DeSclafani is actually worse against lefties than Mahle is. He’s allowing a ridiculous .398 xISO including a .493 xISO on his fastball that he throws nearly 50% of the time to lefties. He’s also giving up a .420 xwOBA and only has 16.7% strikeouts. Hoskins and Williams both had two bombs last night, Santana added one of his own. Franco, obviously not a lefty, but has a .204 ISO and .349 wOBA against right-handed pitching also hit two home runs last night. This team just once again matches up really well here and the lefties get a boost in this park. It’s also worth noting that they knocked Mahle out in the first inning yesterday so the bullpen had to put in some work. They are pretty depleted heading into today.
What stack do you like today? Head over to Twitter to vote on your favorite stack. Got another suggestion? Let us know in the comments.
The Bullpen Report
Bullpens to Attack:
The usual suspects can be attacked tonight. The Yankees are once again in a great spot, and will be all weekend, against a horrendous Royals bullpen. The Nationals are also in luck, facing a Marlins bullpen that gave up seven runs last night in only 3.1 innings of work. The Pirates should be able to do damage against Jason Vargas and then get to face a Mets bullpen that has a 4.70 xFIP and 1.42 WHIP. The Rockies bullpen is terrible, especially at Coors.
Bullpen to Avoid:
San Diego Padres: Luis Perdomo, tonight’s starter for San Diego, is only averaging just over four innings per game in his eight starts. If he gets the hook early once again, however, Arizona would face off with a bullpen that has a 3.61 xFIP and 25.7% strikeouts in a park that is really bad for offense. On a slate this big, you can do better than Arizona for offense tonight.
Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @glandry if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@GP_Landry). Don't forget to sign up for the freeroll!