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Written by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GP_Landry on Twitter

This slate already got turned upside down a little bit with the news that Stephen Strasburg has been scratched and placed on the disabled list. Tommy Milone will be recalled to make the start tonight in Miami. I read a crazy stat on twitter this morning that this is the 12th time Strasburg has landed on the disabled list since signing his big contract and he’s earned $17 million dollars while injured. It’s a shame. When he first started in the league, I loved watching him pitch, but this guy just cannot stay healthy. I feel for you Washington fans. I do think, however, that Strasburg being out helps us out. I wasn’t interested in using Strasburg to begin with, and value pitching tonight is pretty rough. Tommy Milone, who we’ll talk about in more detail shortly, presents an interesting option for tonight. We’ve got tons of hot and humid hitter’s environments today, with seven of the nine games being over 80 degrees. For the first time all week, we’ve got no rain threats, which is a welcome surprise after the Baltimore/Boston PPD last night crushed some teams I had in really good position. I had all Red Sox/Angels stacks last night with Morton and Perez as my pitchers. Could have been a huge night but that’s the risk you take with weather games. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn’t. Can’t sweat the small stuff.

High Priced Pitchers

Trevor Cahill, OAK (@TEX): (DK: $9.9K, FD: $7.4K)

Yup, I know. Don’t roster pitchers in Texas. Even worse, don’t roster pitchers in Texas in July. This isn’t ideal. It’s going to be 101 degrees and the Rangers have a very high implied total tonight. But pitching is ugly on this slate and we are going to have to take a stand somewhere. Sonny Gray as chalk? Nope. Not for me. I’d rather pay up and roll the dice here on a lower owned option with a lot of upside even if I’m risking the floor as a result. The Rangers strikeout 25.2% of the time to right-handed pitching which is the second highest on the slate. Cahill has solid run prevention numbers (3.48 SIERA, 3.36 xFIP to lefties and 3.18 xFIP to righties) and he has a lot of potential strikeouts of his own with a 24.3% strikeout rate and 13.2% swinging strike rate. That swinging strike rate is the highest on this slate among pitchers with at least 50 innings this season and that includes Stephen Strasburg (not that it matters anymore). I also love Cahill’s groundball rate as that could really help save him in the Texas heat. He’s getting 58.5% groundballs including 55.2% to lefties and 60.7% to righties. He also has the lowest WHIP on this slate at 1.02 including 0.99 against left-handed hitting and 1.04 to right-handed hitting. This has been a high scoring series so far and Oakland has used its bullpen pretty heavily. Prior to his injury, Cahill was averaging 6.2 innings per start. As long as he’s not getting completely shelled, he should have a longer leash as Oakland looks to give some of its bullpen arms a rest. I like Cahill as a low owned tournament option. He’ll give up some runs but he should be racking up the strikeouts as well. On last thing, he’s a steal on FanDuel. They continue to undervalue him over there for some reason.

Nick Kingham, PIT (vs. NYM): DK: $9.4K, FD: $8.5K)

This one feels a bit safer, so here’s where I’d go in cash games for this price range. Kingham has a few red flags but there are a lot of positives here too, and I like the matchup against a struggling Mets team that announced yesterday Cespedes would officially miss the rest of the season, as we expected. We’ll start with the matchup. The Mets are better against right-handed pitching than left-handed but still not great. There’s a little power here with a .162 ISO but the wOBA (.304) and wRC+ (92) are both pretty low. The biggest concern with Kingham are his splits against lefties. He has a 5.00 xFIP, 15.5% strikeouts, and a 2.33 HR/9 rate. But outside of Brandon Nimmo (.188 ISO, .346 wOBA) what lefties are we worried about in this lineup? Michael Conforto, I guess, but are we really going out of our way to just avoid him? Not likely. Asdrubal Cabrera is one of the better hitters in this lineup but he’s much better against left-handed pitching than he is against right-handed pitching (.126 ISO, .302 wOBA). Plus, this is a good pitcher’s park that is currently tied for 21st in runs scored and 27th in home runs. As long as Kingham can avoid something major against those lefties, he should be in great position as he’s been real solid against righties with a 3.19 xFIP and 29.5% strikeout rate. In the last month, he’s getting 48.4% groundballs with 22.6% soft contact and an average exit velocity of only 87.2 mph. He’s a comfortable -148 favorite today and he’s in consideration for both cash and tournaments.

Value Pitching

Steven Matz, NYM (@PIT) (DK: $6.3K, FD: $7.6K)

The Pirates eleven game win streak finally came to an end yesterday at the hands of Trevor Bauer but what an incredible run they’ve been on since the All-Star break. Still, despite how hot they’ve been, this is setting up as a good spot for Steven Matz. First, he dominated this team earlier this season throwing seven innings, allowing six hits and three earned runs with seven strikeouts and zero walks. Most of the power in this lineup comes from the left-side of the plate with guys like Dickerson, Polanco, and Moran. Matz is incredible at limiting hard contact against lefties (11.6% this season and 17.4% last season) and he forces 68.7% groundballs. It’s not exactly a recipe for success if all the Pirates can do is hit soft rolling groundballs all day. As far as right-handed batters go, give an additional boost to Matz, because Pittsburgh’s best right-handed bat (and overall best bat in this lineup) is unlikely to play today. Starling Marte left yesterday’s game early after being hit by a pitch in the hand from Trevor Bauer. He attempted to stay in the game but was thrown out stealing and, ultimately, decided to leave. The Pirates are saying he’s likely to get a couple of games off but should avoid the disabled list. This is great news for Matz. As a team, the Pirates only have a .157 ISO, .314 wOBA, 96 wRC+ and 32.3% hard-hit rate. Removing Marte is going to be a significant hit to those numbers. The downside here is the lack of strikeout upside. The Pirates are a low strikeout team (21.4% against LHP) and Matz has only a 20.4% strikeout rate. But I would assume Pittsburgh would try to rollout as many right-handed batters as they can and Matz actually has higher strikeouts against righties (21.2%) than lefties (17.8%). Overall, there’s not a great ceiling here, so I can’t suggest Matz for tournaments, but I do think there’s a strong floor. He should be able to pick up a handful of strikeouts, limit runs, and pitch deep enough into this game to return value. I like him as an SP2 in cash on DraftKings today.

Tommy Milone, WAS (@MIA) (DK: $4K)

I apologize for those of you who play only on FanDuel as it doesn’t appear that Milone is in the player pool. But since you only have to roster one pitcher over there, I wouldn’t suggest using Milone on that site anyway. However on DraftKings, where we need two pitchers, I’m liking Milone as an SP2 option. My gut says that the field will pivot to Miami bats with the news of Stephen Strasburg being scratched and replaced by Milone. I want to bet against the field on this one. Pitching, particularly in the value tier today, is pretty ugly so Milone is very appealing at this minimum pitcher salary. I know, don’t roster pitchers against Miami, but I’m perfectly fine doing so when the pitcher is this cheap. It minimizes the risk because you’re not looking for a ton of points in this scenario and the salary that it opens up will do a lot for your bats (and there are plenty of spots for offense tonight). Milone has been solid this season in Triple-A Syracuse. He’s 7-4 with a 3.46 xFIP and 113 strikeouts in 109.2 innings pitched (25.2% strikeout rate). He does allow a lot of fly balls (46.2%) but that hasn’t resulted in many home runs (7.9% HR/FB). Plus, fly balls are not a bad thing in this massive ballpark, which is basically the only reason why Wei-Yin Chen is still able to pitch in the major leagues. Milone has gone at least six innings in nine of his last twelve starts, so there are no concerns about allowing him to pitch deep into the game if he’s performing well. Yes, Miami makes me nervous (as weird as that sounds), but he’s cheap enough to cancel out those concerns. He’s on my radar in both cash and tournaments today.

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential.

Aaron Judge, OF (DK: $5.6K, FD: $4.4K): Junis allows 23.1% HR/FB on 40.1% fly balls and 42.1% hard contact. This has resulted in 2.37 HR/9 against right-handed hitters including a .256 xISO allowed. Judge has a .265 ISO and 48.3% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season. He profiles well against Junis with a .308 xISO against fastballs, a .275 xISO against sinkers, and a .215 xISO against sliders.

Jed Lowrie, 2B/3B (DK: $4.4K, FD: $3.5K): Lowrie makes for a great power upside infielder today against Bartolo Colon, who’s allowing a .201 xISO and 40.1% hard contact rate. Lowrie has a .235 ISO and 34.9% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. He also hits two-seam fastballs really well, which Colon happens to throw 60% of the time to lefties. Lowrie has a .214 xISO against two-seam fastballs.

Mike Moustakas, 3B (DK: $4.3K, FD: $3.6K): If you roster him today, just be cautious. He’s one of the hotter players on the trading block at the moment and a last minute scratch can’t be ruled out if he gets moved. If he does play, however, I like him in this spot quite a bit. He has a .250 ISO and 47.9% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season. Gray is allowing 16.1% HR/FB and 40% hard contact against left-handed hitters. One of his key pitches to lefties is a curveball, which Moustakas happens to have a .201 xISO against. This is also a nice park upgrade for the Royals today.

Value Bats

Nick Williams, OF (DK: $4K, FD: $2.7K): For the record, I love Williams today but he’s not a value play on DraftKings at $4K. He’s still in play but I just wanted to highlight that since this is the value bats section. He is a steal, however, on FanDuel at just $2.7K, which is why I wanted to bring him up here. I was surprised to learn he has the second highest ISO among qualified batters against right-handed pitching for the Phillies. On top of that, he’s got a .342 wOBA and 35.1% hard-hit rate. That makes him an incredible value. Tyler Mahle is awful against lefties. He’s allowing a .250 xISO, .382 xwOBA, and 44.9% hard contact. My favorite part about Mahle is he throws his fastball 70% of the time to left-handed batters despite allowing a .194 xISO and .349 xwOBA. Williams has a .245 xISO and .381 xwOBA against fastballs.

Dansby Swanson, SS (DK: $3.5K, FD: $3K): For my middle infielder today, I’m going to go with 2015 number one overall pick Dansby Swanson. He’s standing out to me based on his pitch type profiling and, as I looked deeper, I was surprised to see his power numbers against lefties. He has a .194 ISO and 43.8% hard-hit rate. Rich Hill throws two main pitches, a fastball and a curveball. Swanson has a .221 xISO against fastballs and a .294 xISO against curveballs this season. Not only do I like him as a value play today, but I think he’s got serious home run upside.

Sean Rodriguez, 1B/2B (DK: $3.1K, FD: $2.1K): I talked about Matz as a pitching option today but he’s definitely not perfect. Rodriguez stands out as an excellent value play against him at this price point with his track record against left-handed pitching. I’m also thinking he may get bumped up in the order if Marte misses this game. He’s got a .243 ISO and .394 wOBA against lefties this season. Small sample size, but Rodriguez has a .901 xISO and .669 xwOBA against sinkers this season, which just so happens to be the pitch that Matz throws 56.9% of the time to right-handed hitters. Obviously, those numbers aren’t sustainable for Rodriguez but even with regression he would still be well above average against that pitch type.

Stacks on Stacks 🥞

For the record, I like the Red Sox, Yankees, and Athletics a lot on this slate but I’m assuming they are each going to be on the more popular side. They have three of the top four implied totals on the board today. There is a large gap between Boston (5.49) and the next closest team, Cincinnati (4.97). There are a few other teams I like tonight that I think will fly further under the radar.

Atlanta Braves (vs. Rich Hill): There is a ton of value in this Braves lineup tonight that just mashes left-handed pitching. Johan Camargo (.270 ISO, .374 wOBA), Tyler Flowers (.263 ISO, .532 wOBA), Kurt Suzuki (.246 ISO, .347 wOBA), and Dansby Swanson, who I already discussed in the value bats section, are all $3.7K or less on DraftKings ($3K or less on FanDuel AND you can play both Flowers and Suzuki together on that site). You could make a very appealing, low owned stack out of these guys and still have a lot of money left to fill in the rest of your lineup. Hill is allowing a .243 xISO, .352 xwOBA, and 50.4% hard contact against right-handed hitters. If you want to get really different, in a large field GPP, Freeman has a .272 ISO and .445 wOBA and Nick Markakis has a .183 ISO and .383 wOBA despite the lefty versus lefty matchup. Hill is better against left-handed hitters (he’s yet to give up a home run) but he has some serious regression on the way and is allowing 36.6% hard contact. I didn’t even mention Ozzie Albies, who is a switch hitter, and has a .241 ISO and .375 wOBA against lefties. You can stack this lineup basically however you want. Assuming they are low owned, this is likely my highest owned stack of the day.

Kansas City Royals (vs. Sonny Gray): With pitching being rather thin on this slate, and the Royals having the lowest implied team total on the board, we are looking at a Sonny Gray chalk night. No thanks. I’m loving this spot for Kansas City and it would give us significant leverage over the field if Gray doesn’t hit. It’s a nice park upgrade for the Royals and as I dove into this a bit further, I saw less and less about Gray that I liked and more about the Royals bats that I wanted. For starters, they profile very well against Gray’s pitch types. He throws a fastball, curveball, and two-seam fastball to lefties. I already told you how Moustakas lines up against those pitches, so we know he’s in a good spot. Alex Gordon has a .199 xISO and .353 xwOBA against fastballs, and a .264 xISO and .386 xwOBA against two-seam fastballs. Duda has a .386 xISO and .452 wOBA against fastballs, a .401 wOBA against two-seam fastballs, and a .183 ISO against curveballs. As far as the righties are concerned, Gray throws a two-seam fastball, fastball, and a slider. Merrifield has a .218 xISO against fastballs and a .179 xISO and .390 xwOBA against two-seam fastballs. Perez has a .346 xISO and .401 xwOBA against fastballs, a .324 xISO and .392 xwOBA against two-seam fastballs. Bonifacio hits the slider well with a .190 xISO as well as a .347 xwOBA against fastballs. It’s not perfect, but it’s way better than I expected. They are still the Royals, so I can’t say this isn’t risky, but if Gray is shaping up to be a popular pitcher this evening (he will be) I’ll be stacking heavily against him. The downside here of course is the Yankees bullpen, especially now that they’ve acquired Zach Britton. I’m willing to take the risk though on a team that should be less than five percent owned facing a potential chalk pitcher. There’s too much leverage there to be ignored.

Philadelphia Phillies (vs. Tyler Mahle): Mahle will have to deal with several lefties in this Philadelphia lineup and that will not do him any favors. He has a terrible 5.45 xFIP, 15.3% walk rate, and 1.88 WHIP. He’s allowing a .250 xISO and .382 xwOBA with 44.9% hard contact. I love this spot for Herrera (.201 ISO, .344 wOBA), Hernandez (.337 wOBA), Santana (.180 ISO, 34.3% hard-hits), and of course Williams, who I talked about in the value bats section. Mahle is better against right-handed batters allowing only a .136 xISO and .302 xwOBA but he does still give up 37.7% hard contact, which is tough to get away with in this ballpark. Rhys Hoskins has a ton of potential in this spot with his .251 ISO, .370 wOBA, and 35.1% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. Maikel Franco has a .206 ISO and .354 wOBA and is firmly in play as well. Mahle is also supported by a below average bullpen as the Reds have only a 4.24 xFIP and allow 37.7% hard contact. This gives an additional boost to these Phillies bats.

What stack do you like today? Head over to Twitter to vote on your favorite stack. Got another suggestion? Let us know in the comments.

The Bullpen

Bullpens to Attack:

Kansas City Royals: I know, I’m a broken record. I mention attacking the Royals bullpen every night. They are just this bad. Plus, they should be busy today. I don’t see how Jakob Junis lasts more than a handful of innings against this Yankee lineup. New York is my top stack of the day from fantasy points scored perspective. My issue is I expect they will be popular (with good reason).

Minnesota Twins: I like the Red Sox today as well. Again, the red flag here is how popular will they be. Kyle Gibson is better than Jakob Junis, so he might last a little longer in this game, but the Twins bullpen is in rough shape with a 1.42 WHIP and 38.5% hard contact rate. There will be plenty of opportunities throughout the whole game for these Sox bats to put up runs (and fantasy points).

Bullpens to Avoid:

Philadelphia Phillies: I considered stacking the Reds today. It’s a great hitter’s park and they are taking on a rookie pitcher who hasn’t even been in Triple-A very long. But, Suarez’s numbers are actually pretty solid, at least from a run prevention standpoint (he has low strikeout upside). Plus, the Phillies’ bullpen has a 3.92 xFIP, 24.2% strikeout rate and only allows 28.8% hard contact. There are a lot more options I like than the Reds today.

San Francisco Giants: The Giants bullpen has a 3.93 xFIP with 23% strikeouts and 11.5% swinging strikes. Using a Brewers stack just feels like a bad idea. I'm not looking to avoid Dereck Rodriguez but he’s supported by this strong bullpen and this is a bad hitter’s park. This game has a low total and I think bats against the Giants should just be avoided today.

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @glandry if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@GP_Landry). Don't forget to sign up for the freeroll!