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Written by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GP_Landry on Twitter

Today we have an eight-game early slate beginning at 12:10 EST and then a wild four-game main slate starting at the normal time. Today's article will highlight some options from both slates. We're going to have to get creative and use some game theory on the main slate as two of the four games have double-digit totals. The week of poor weather continues today. We have rain threats in New York, Philadelphia, and Baltimore. All of them appear to be legitimate chances of a PPD. Colorado also has a threat of rain but that's pretty typical and generally doesn't wind up impacting the game. Still worth keeping an eye on. Hot temperatures in Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Kansas City, Chicago, Texas, Colorado, and Los Angeles so we can give bumps to all the bats in those games. As of this writing, the game in Texas has an implied total of 12. Two runs higher than the game at Coors. The top six teams in terms of implied run totals today are all on the four game main slate. The highest implied total on the early slate starts with St. Louis at 4.88 runs. This should be interesting so lets not waste any time and see what we can figure out for our roster construction today.

Early Slate Pitching

Jack Flaherty, STL (@CIN) (DK: $9K, FD: $7.4K)

In all likelihood Bauer will be popular on this early slate. He’s by far the best pitcher available and there should be enough value to fit him in. Since the early slate is smaller than usual, I’m going to look at pivot options instead. I like Bauer don’t get me wrong, but I’m not thrilled with the idea of paying 13.4K for him on DraftKings especially when I think a lot of other people will be. Let me instead suggest Jack Flaherty. The Reds have nearly been no-hit two nights in a row now by rookie, lower level prospects. Now, they’ll have to face Flaherty who has a 3.44 SIERA, 29% strikeout rate, and 12.6% swinging strikes. My biggest concern with Flaherty is against left-handed hitting. He has a 4.18 xFIP which could use some improvement but he does still get 23% strikeouts. His groundball rate is high at 47.7% and he’s allowing average 30.8% hard contact. Opposing lefties have only a .114 xISO and .291 xwOBA. A couple of red flags but overall not bad. Against righties, he’s excellent with a 2.88 xFIP, 34.9% strikeout rate, and 18% swinging strike rate, and only 6% walks. He allows a little more power with 1.59 HR/9 and a .156 xISO but both are still well below average. This .283 xwOBA allowed is excellent. In the past month, Flaherty is allowing only 14.6% line drives and getting a huge 39.6% soft contact rate. The average exit velocity is 82.3 mph and the average distance is 191 feet during that same span. It’s not the best ballpark for using pitchers, but Flaherty’s numbers (and the Reds bats) suggest he can get through this game with minimal damage and plenty of upside. He’s a -125 favorite today and I like him as a lower owned option on the early slate. I’ll also point out he’s under priced on FanDuel at just $7.4K. I really like him over there.

Matt Boyd, DET (@KC) (DK: $7K, FD: $6.5K)

You were all expecting me to pick Clayton Richard. Another left-handed pitcher against the terrible New York Mets. The truth is, like Bauer, I like Richard a lot and I’d have no problem going back to that well despite Eric Lauer’s lackluster performance last night. But, I think Richard will be popular so I’m going to suggest another pivot since this is a smaller slate and you’ll need to avoid chalk as much as possible in tournaments. The downside of using pitchers against the Kansas City Royals is they don’t strikeout much which caps the upside of the pitcher. Well, that theory is starting to change. With some of the moves the Royals have had in their lineup over the past month they are quickly going from one of the lowest strikeout rate teams in the league to one of the highest. In the past month, they are striking out over 25% of the time. Their strikeout rate against left-handed pitching has increased to 23.1%. This means Matt Boyd will actually get a boost when he takes the hill today. Boyd’s full season numbers leave much to be desired but his splits are when things start to standout. He’s real solid against lefties, with a 3.74 xFIP, 25.5% strikeout rate, and only 2.9% walks. He does allow 45.1% fly balls and 40.9% hard contact which is concerning but that’s only translating to a .146 xISO and .256 xwOBA allowed. Right-handed hitters are sketchy. He’s got a 5.09 xFIP and a lower 20.2% strikeout rate with 10.5% walks. He’s still giving up the high fly balls (45%) and hard contact (36%) but it’s still not resulting in much damage. The HR/FB rate is low at 8% and he’s allowing just a .156 xISO and .309 xwOBA. Plus, this Royals right-handed hitters are very weak. It’s Merrifield and Perez and then it all goes completely downhill after that. In the last month, Boyd is allowing only 19.6% hard contact with an average exit velocity of 84.5 mph. Somehow, Boyd is an underdog which I don’t get at all. I love the Tigers bats today against Boyd’s opponent, Danny Duffy. I’d expect some reverse line movement in favor of Detroit as we get closer to lock. Either way, Boyd is my favorite value pitcher on the early slate.

Main Slate Pitching

Charlie Morton, HOU (@COL) (DK: $8.8K, FD: $9.5K)

EVERYONE is going to play Tyler Skaggs and David Price for good reason on the main slate. Skaggs has a great matchup against a White Sox team that strikes out 25.8% of the time against left-handed pitching. David Price faces a very weak Baltimore offense who he dominated earlier this season with a complete game. He only needed 95 pitches to get through all nine innings, allowing five hits, two earned runs, and striking out eight. I love him in this spot tonight. But, this is a four game slate so unless you’re playing cash games, you need to stay away from chalk. Charlie Morton is our best bet. He brings the most upside to the table and his ownership should be down because he’s pitching at Coors. Now, I would normally never recommend a pitcher at Coors but again, four game slate, we need to get creative here if playing tournaments. The Rockies have power but they are more dangerous against lefties than they are against righties. Morton has a 3.29 SIERA with 31.2% strikeouts and 12.8% swinging strikes. He has an excellent 1.15 WHIP, 80.1% LOB% and 49.1% groundball rate. Against lefties, he has a 2.72 xFIP with a massive 39% strikeout rate. He does allow 40.6% hard contact, which is not ideal, but only a .156 xISO and .304 xwOBA which are both very good. Versus right-handed batters, he has a 3.45 xFIP with 23.8% strikeouts. The LOB% is excellent at 83.6% and he forces 52.8% groundballs with only 26.1% hard contact. Righties have a very low .099 xISO and .267 xwOBA against him. The resume is outstanding. There are very few red flags we need to be worried about. It all comes down to whether or not he can get it done at Coors Field. If you want to play Skaggs and Price, I can’t blame you, you’ll just need to find other ways to differentiate your team. If you can stomach the risk, however, and Morton keeps Coors Field at bay you’ll be sitting in a very comfortable position with significantly more money to invest in your bats because of the discount we are getting today.

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential.

Early Slate:

Nick Castellanos, OF (DK: $4.1K, FD: $3.1K): Duffy has been pitching a little better as of late but he’s had some matchups that really fit his strengths. Today, we have the opposite. He’s going to see a bunch of right-handed power bats. He allows .234 xISO along with 46.4% fly balls, 13.1% HR/FB, and 37.8% hard contact. Castellanos has a .260 ISO, .476 wOBA, and 50.6% hard-hit rate against left-handed pitching this season. He’s also pretty affordable on both sites.

Nick Ahmed, SS (DK: $4K, FD: $2.8K): Here’s my middle infield recommendation. Ahmed is one of my favorite players against left-handed pitching. He’s typically under priced and under owned but he crushes them. He has a .223 ISO and 41.9% hard-hit rate. Lester, meanwhile, is allowing a .207 xISO including 36.9% fly balls and 10.6% HR/FB with 33.9% hard contact. Ahmed profiles well against Lester too. He has a .197 xISO against fastballs, a .304 xISO against cutters, and a .366 xISO against curveballs.

Main Slate (Excluding Coors Field):

Andrew Benintendi, OF (DK: $5.1K, FD: $4.3K): Dylan Bundy allows 47.2% fly balls and 11.7% HR/FB against left-handed hitters. He’s giving up 36.4% hard contact and opposing lefties have a crazy high .285 xISO against him. Benintendi has a .225 ISO against right-handed pitching and he also crushes each of Bundy’s pitch types which are a fastball, changeup, and curveball. Benintendi has a .284 xISO against fastballs, a .226 xISO against changeups, and a .273 xISO against curveballs this season.

Joey Gallo, 1B/OF (DK: $4.2K, FD: $2.6K): Jackson is a good pitcher to choose a Joey Gallo home run call on. He struggles with lefties and he has a low strikeout rate. Perfect for a power hitting lefty who strikes out a ton. Jackson allows a .229 xISO including 46.3% fly balls and a 16% HR/FB rate. He’s giving up 1.93 HR/9 so far this season. Gallo has a .254 ISO and 48.2% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. He profiles very well against Jackson’s pitch types as well with a .316 xISO against fastballs, a .409 xISO against sliders, and a ridiculous .773 xISO against two-seam fastballs.

Value Bats

Early Slate:

Addison Russell, SS (DK: $3.5K, FD: $2.7K): Robbie Ray is allowing a .203 xISO, .350 xwOBA, and over 50% hard contact to right-handed hitters this year. Russell doesn’t have a ton of power but he has an excellent .364 wOBA and he only strikes out 10.8% of the time to left-handed pitching. The downside with him is typically his spot in the lineup though he could move up today given the matchup. He’s undervalued on both sites.

James McCann, C (DK: $3.2K, FD: $2.2K): As usual, McCann is under priced when facing a left-handed pitcher. I admit, his numbers are down, but we are talking about a player with a career .234 ISO, .354 wOBA, and 38.4% hard-hits against left-handed pitching. Duffy is allowing a .234 xISO, .364 xwOBA, and 37.8% hard contact to righties. His strikeout rate also drops to under 20% and he walks 11.9% of right-handed hitters. McCann, along with several of his teammates, are potentially cheap exposure to some home runs today.

Main Slate:

Danny Valencia, 3B/OF (DK: $3.2K, FD: $2.5K): I’m going right back to this suggestion after he went 2 for 4 yesterday in a similar spot against a left-handed pitching. Price is typically very good against Baltimore that doesn’t mean I think he’ll get away completely unscathed. He’s still allowing a scary .220 xISO to right-handed hitters this season. Valencia has a .227 ISO and 34.9% hard-hits against lefties. Price throws a two-seam fastball, a cutter, and a changeup to right-handed hitters. Valencia has a .200 xISO against two-seam fastballs, a .468 xISO against cutters, and a .262 xISO against changeups.

Matt Davidson, 1B/3B (DK: $3.1K, FD: $2.2K): Value bats on the main slate means rostering players against pitchers that you normally wouldn’t. There’s nothing about Tyler Skaggs that makes me want to attack him. This is all about how well Davidson hits lefties and how cheap he is. He has a .286 ISO, .379 wOBA, and a huge 56.4% hard-hit rate against left-handed pitching this season. We have good hitter's weather in Los Angeles tonight as well. If he connects with one you'll be happy with the results especially at such a low cost.

Stacks on Stacks 🥞

Early Slate:

Chicago Cubs (vs. Robbie Ray): The early slate is a bit strange. There’s not a single team with an implied run total over five at the moment. In fact, the top six implied run totals on the board today are all on the main slate. As of this writing, the Cubs don’t have a total, which is typical as it usual comes out later so the wind at Wrigley can be monitored. Ray hasn’t seemed right since his return from the disabled list. The strikeout upside is still there but he has a very high 1.51 WHIP, he’s giving up 11.7% walks, and he’s allowing a ridiculous 47% hard contact rate. He’s been okay against lefties, allowing a .174 xISO and a .298 xwOBA but the .207 BABIP suggests he’s been a bit lucky. He’s having a hard time with right-handed bats which is what we are going to prioritize today. He’s allowing a .203 xISO, .350 xwOBA, and a 50.5% hard contact rate. Kris Bryant had last night off, seems like the Cubs are taking it easy with him, so I’d expect him to be fresh for tonight’s game. It’s only a 61 at-bat sample size this season but he has a .426 ISO and .485 wOBA against lefties. Baez (.261 ISO, .368 wOBA) and Contreras (.221 ISO, .376 wOBA) round out my top three. After them, Russell (.364 wOBA), Happ (40.9% hard-hits), and Almora Jr. (.352 wOBA) are all in consideration as part of a full stack.

Detroit Tigers (vs Danny Duffy): I think I’ve recommended Detroit every day this week and it hasn’t been working out very well. I’m going to give it one more shot against Danny Duffy who has real issues with right-handed hitting and should see a lot of that today. He allows a .234 xISO, .364 xwOBA, and 37.8% hard contact. Castellanos is one of my favorite bats on this slate. He has a .260 ISO, .476 wOBA, and 50.6% hard-hit rate against left-handed pitching. Candelario is next with a .196 ISO, .355 wOBA, and 41.2% hard-hits. Hicks and McCann are both in the conversation as well. Neither of them are having great seasons but McCann’s low .226 BABIP and high 35.7% hard-hit rate suggests he’ll see some positive regression. He and Hicks are both career lefty mashers and they are always under priced when they face one. A couple of surprising options on this team are Jacoby Jones, who has pretty ugly numbers but a massive 51.7% hard-hit rate. Jose Iglesias is the biggest surprise of all with his .370 wOBA against lefties. All of these guys are very affordable and will make it easy to build a solid lineup around them. If this one doesn’t hit today I might be done with the Tigers for a while.

Main Slate:

Boston Red Sox (vs. Dylan Bundy): This is a very odd four game main slate. We have Coors Field, we have Globe Life Park in July, which is basically Coors Field, and then we have the Red Sox. Could Boston really be low owned on a four game slate? Let’s hope so, because Dylan Bundy continues to get smashed. He’s giving up a .285 xISO and .373 xwOBA to lefties and a .209 xISO to righties (only a .295 xwOBA). He’s also allowing 36.4% hard contact against left-handed hitting and 33.1% against right-handed hitting. As usual, you can stack this team up and down. J.D Martinez became the second player in the league to reach 30 home runs last night and he’ll probably pass Jose Ramirez with another bomb tonight. Mookie Betts has some catching up to do but he can probably start closing the gap with his .276 ISO and .445 wOBA. Xander Bogaerts has fantastic numbers including a .278 ISO and .383 wOBA. Moreland (.244 ISO, .375 wOBA), Benintendi (who is on the home run watch list today), and even Jackie Bradley Jr (41.1% hard-hits) are all on the stacking radar for tonight.

Los Angeles Angels (vs James Shields): Here’s another team that’s going to be way lower owned than it should be on this small slate but has the same ceiling as the other teams in this spot. I’ve NEVER had luck stacking against James Shields despite all the numbers saying I should be rich by now for all the times I’ve used bats against him. He’s allowing a .218 xISO and .357 xwOBA to lefties and a .212 xISO and .344 xwOBA to righties. All of his numbers suggest regression. His SIERA is higher than his ERA, the BABIP is low at .259. He has low strikeouts and swinging strikes. The Angels are in a great spot. Everything starts with Mike Trout and there’s no explanation needed. Ohtani has a .315 ISO and .433 wOBA assuming he plays. Upton has been better against righties than lefties this year with a .227 ISO and .364 wOBA. Kinsler has some power upside with a .192 ISO. Pujols (.181 ISO, 42.4% hard-hits), Calhoun (.175 ISO, 37.6% hard-hits), Simmons (36.3% hard-hits), and Valbuena (38.7% hard hits) are all in play.

The Bullpen

Early Slate Spot to Attack:

St. Louis Cardinals (vs. Cincinnati Reds): They kept popping up on my radar against Sal Romano and more important the potential to face the Reds bullpen. They have a weak 4.21 xFIP with only 20.6% strikeouts while allowing 37.8% hard contact. I like the Cardinals chances to knock out Romano early and get several innings against these guys.

Early Slate Spot to Avoid:

Los Angeles Dodgers (vs. Philadelphia Phillies): I’m going to pass on the Dodgers today. They continue to be high owned since the Machado trade. Arrieta is not a pitcher we need to avoid but he’s not a priority for me to attack either. Plus, the Phillies bullpen has made steady progress over the course of the season. They currently have a 3.92 xFIP with 24.2% strikeouts while allowing just 28.2% hard contact. I think we can do better.

Main Slate:

I'm not weighing bullpens very much in my decision making. Houston is a strong bullpen but they are in Coors Field. The Red Sox are a strong bullpen but we can't cross teams off our list on a four-game slate. The Orioles make for an interesting leverage play tonight assuming David Price will be popular so I can't avoid them all together. The rest of the bullpens are average or below average and in bad spots. Fire away on the main slate with any of these offenses.

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @glandry if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@GP_Landry). Don't forget to sign up for the freeroll!