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Written by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GP_Landry on Twitter

We’ve got a 14-game slate to talk about today with no shortage of pitching or hitting options. I like multiple pitchers in each tier. In fact, despite several pitchers in the higher priced range, this is feeling like a slate I want to pay down at the position. Many of the more expensive pitchers today come with risk, whether it be recent performance, matchup, or a combination of the two. There are a ton of bats today including a game at Coors Field, a game at Texas (which currently has a higher total than Coors), a game at Great American “Smallpark” between Homer Bailey (he’s back!) and a rookie pitcher (also has a higher total than Coors). Plus, we have the Red Sox and Yankees both taking on young, inexperienced pitchers. I’ll talk about two guys in the top tier that I like, but I’ll tell you now, I’m going to want a piece of these bats tonight and that’s likely where I’m headed. Weather continues to be an issue today, although it doesn’t look as bad as the past few days. Baltimore has the biggest risk of rain and a possible PPD threat. Philadelphia, New York, and Cleveland also have smaller rain threats that will be worth watching. All the games with potential rain also have potential wind blowing out, so that will be worth monitoring as well. We’ve got warm weather in Texas (98 - at least it’s not over 100!), Kansas City (92), Colorado (85), Los Angeles (87), Cincinnati (83), and Philadelphia (81). As always, be sure to leave yourself enough time to consider weather factors when it’s closer to lock.

Power Pitching Options

Kenta Maeda, LAD (@PHI) (DK: $11.3K, FD: $9.5K)

With some of the other options available above $10K on DraftKings, I can see Maeda, who is arguably the least exciting of that group, going under the radar in what should be an excellent spot. His ownership could be a different story on FanDuel, where he’s significantly less expensive but he’s definitely still in play. He comes into this game on a streak of four consecutive games with nine strikeouts. Chances are pretty good that he’ll extend that streak against a Phillies team that has the highest strikeout rate in baseball against right-handed pitching (25.7%). Maeda has a 3.42 SIERA with 29.7% strikeouts and 14.2% swinging strikes. His swinging strike rate is the highest on the slate over guys like Cole, Snell, Paxton, Berrios, and Nola. When we check out the splits, he has plenty of upside, though with some risk against left-handed hitting. The 3.78 xFIP and 25.4% strikeout rate are both very good. The 1.44 WHIP, 67.5% LOB%, and 39.3% hard contact allowed could use some work. He’s allowing a .173 xISO and .322 xwOBA but the BABIP is also high at .333, so we should see these numbers drop a bit as the season rolls on. Against right-handed bats, Maeda has an outstanding 2.84 xFIP with 33.9% strikeouts and most of the red flags go away. The WHIP drops to 1.03, the LOB% increases to 83%. He does still allow 35.6% hard contact but opposing hitters have just a .133 xISO and .266 xwOBA against him, so I’m not overly concerned. My main concern is the ballpark. Philadelphia does have a little power with guys like Hoskins and Herrera. Ross Stripling gave up three home runs last night, which isn’t very comforting. Still, the reward outweighs the risk here with how much strikeout upside Maeda has, the Phillies' very high strikeout rate, and their very low hard-hit rate. I’m willing to chalk up last night to a little variance that didn’t fall in Stripling’s favor and go right back to attacking them again today. In the past month, Maeda has allowed 50 batted balls of which 24% were soft contact (only 16% were hard contact), 46% were groundballs, and the average exit velocity was just 87.7 mph. The downside here, of course, is that he’s an underdog with Aaron Nola pitching against him today, but the implied run totals for both of these teams are very similar (Phillies 3.88, Dodgers 3.62). With how well the Dodgers hit right-handed pitching, and how stacked their lineup is, I prefer Maeda today even with Nola being favored.

James Paxton, SEA (@SF) (DK: $10.2K, FD: $9.3K)

Paxton will return to the mound tonight after a brief stint on the disabled list with back tightness, which caused him to leave his last start early. I’m going to trust that with the extended layoff due to the All-Star break, he’s good to go, or else Seattle wouldn’t be rolling him out there (although Cleveland keeps putting Kluber on the hill when he’s clearly not 100%, so what do I know?) Assuming Paxton is fully healthy, he is my favorite pitcher on the board. I love attacking the Giants with pitching. It’s a strategy that has treated me very well over the past month. San Francisco has a very weak .141 ISO, .299 wOBA, and 88 wRC+ against lefties. They strikeout 21.4% of the time and this is a great park for pitchers. The downside is that it does appear Evan Longoria will return to the lineup and he is pretty well-known for the damage he can do to left-handed pitching. But I’m not willing to let one player change my opinion. Outside of Longoria and Hundley, things are rather ugly for this team against lefties. Paxton has a 2.97 SIERA with 13.8% swinging strikes and a solid 1.09 WHIP. He is a bit prone to home runs, with 41.2% fly balls, 13.4% HR/FB, and 35.6% hard contact but all these things are helped when he’s pitching in the friendly confines of Safeco Field. His numbers against lefties are pretty odd. He has a 6.97 ERA while allowing a .167 ISO and a .363 wOBA. But, the BABIP is ridiculous at .481, the xFIP is significantly lower than the ERA at just 1.96, and the xISO is only .110 and the xwOBA is only .278. Clearly he’s been incredibly unlucky up to this point with left-handed hitters and there’s a ton of positive regression coming his way. I’m pretty sure that’s the largest gap between ERA and xFIP that I’ve seen all season. Things are more stable against right-handed hitters, so we won’t need to rely on regression. He’s got a 3.27 xFIP with 31.3% strikeouts and an excellent 0.96 WHIP. He does still give up the fly balls (45.3%), HR/FB (12.3), and hard contact (37.1%) which has led to his right-handed opponents having a .195 xISO against him but only a .308 wOBA. His statcast numbers over the last month are a bit ugly but I'm willing to overlook them considering the splits advantage he has on the Giants today.

Value Pitching Options

Andrew Suarez, SF (vs. SEA) (DK: $7.5K, FD: $7.5K)

This is my under the radar wildcard option of the day. Seattle is surprisingly mediocre at best against left-handed pitching. You would think, with all the right-handed power bats they have in this lineup, that they would smash lefties. But, outside of Nelson Cruz, there’s really not much in this lineup that I’m overly concerned about. As a team, just a .150 ISO. The wOBA is solid at .322, but the hard-hit rate is extremely low at 30.4%. Their BABIP is also slightly above average at .318, suggesting we could see some of these numbers drop a little as we go further into the season. Cruz is terrifying with his .368 ISO and .425 wOBA but, after him, things get bleak in a hurry. Healy has a .193 ISO but only a .292 wOBA. Seager is one of their better hitters against lefties despite being a lefty himself. Segura has a .372 wOBA but only 23.9% hard-hits. Zunino has some power and he can hit the slider fairly well, but he’s really struggling this season and striking out 46.2% of the time to left-handed pitching. The further I go into this lineup, the more things I find myself liking for Suarez. He has a 3.59 SIERA with 22.6% strikeouts and only 5.8% walks. His splits are pretty strong as well. He’s lights out, as you would expect, against lefties with a 2.60 xFIP, 24.4% strikeouts and only 2.3% walks. He has a very impressive 0.72 WHIP while forcing 63.9% groundballs and allowing only 25.4% hard contact. Opposing lefties have only a .078 xISO and .232 xwOBA against him this season. I will point out the BABIP is low at just .233 but even if he did experience some regression on these numbers, he would still be above average in most categories. Against right-handed batters, the xFIP increases but it’s still very good at 3.61 and he’s getting 22% strikeouts. His groundball rate drops, but it’s still a comfortable 48.7%. The red flags here are the .218 xISO, .347 xwOBA, and 45.6% hard contact rate he allows. But, BABIP to right-handed hitters is high at .346, so I’d expect these numbers to improve. I still think Cruz, Healy, and Haniger are threats, but Healy and Haniger both have some weaknesses as well (particularly strikeouts). In the past month, Suarez has allowed 50 batted balls, of which 58% have been groundballs and an incredible 32% were soft contact. This has resulted in an average exit velocity of only 87 mph and an average distance of just 177.7 feet. Those are the numbers that are going to keep him from getting into trouble against this team. He’s a large underdog, which does take away some of his appeal, but he has some sneaky upside in this spot. I like him as a virtually unowned GPP pitcher on this slate tonight.

Eric Lauer, SD (@NYM) (DK: $4K, FD: $7.4K)

Well, here we go again. Lauer was scratched yesterday and will now start today instead because of what the Padres are calling a “rotation adjustment”. I have no idea what that means, but the most important part is Lauer does not appear to be hurt at all. His pricing did not change on either site, which means he’s still only $4K on DraftKings. It really does feel like a mistake that he’s priced this low in this matchup. I know he’s been a bit inconsistent but $4K? That seems ridiculous. This is a guy who pitched a gem, only two starts ago, against a difficult Dodgers lineup where he went 8.2 innings allowing four hits, one earned run and eight strikeouts. His teammate, Joey Lucchesi, who is also a lefty, was very solid last night in this same matchup. He ended up going 5.1 innings, scattering six hits and allowing two earned runs without any walks and six strikeouts. Lauer isn’t safe by any means, but a similar performance to Lucchesi is well within his range of outcomes and he’s $4.3K cheaper on DraftKings. If we wind up with a similar fantasy output but at Lauer’s price, we’ll be thrilled tonight. The Mets are awful against left-handed pitching this season. When I say awful I mean they are literally the worst team in baseball against lefties. They strikeout 26.1% of the time and have only a .116 ISO, .281 wOBA, 77 wRC+, and just 32% hard-hits. I won’t repeat the whole thing again, but just in case you missed it in this article yesterday, Cespedes made his return to the lineup on Friday after nine weeks on the disabled list but was out again the next day and could barely walk. It was revealed that he needs surgery on both heels and the recovery time could be eight to ten months! He missed the game last night to go see a specialist, so we may get more clarity on if he’ll play anymore or not prior to tonight’s game. Either way, he’s clearly not 100%. Lauer’s numbers are not pretty. He has a high xFIP and low strikeouts against lefties, but he does manage a 50% groundball rate and allow a below average .149 xISO and .332 xwOBA. Against righties, the xFIP drops to a more reasonable 4.25 and the strikeout rate rises to a better 21.3%, but he allows a higher xISO (.169) and a higher .xwOBA (.355) and over 40% hard contact. He’s far from a sure thing, but I can’t get past the numbers for the Mets against left-handed pitching or the price tag for Lauer today. You can fit in Lauer with any of the top tier pitching options and still have more than enough room to roster the bats you want. I’ll probably wind up locking him into my SP2 spot on DraftKings. Don’t play him on FanDuel, he’s too expensive and you don’t need the salary relief as much over there.

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential.

Yadier Molina, C (DK: $4.3K, FD: $3.1K): Looks like Christmas is coming early this year everyone because Homer Bailey is back! Let’s see what he brought with him to put under the tree. A 36.4% fly ball rate, of which 17.5% go for home runs with a massive 51.7% hard contact rate against right-handed batters. He’s allowing a .302 xISO and he has only a 12.9% strikeout rate. Expect Molina to take full advantage of this with his .207 ISO and 47% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. Both of these guys have been around the league for a while, so I figured this might be a situation where looking at BvP would come in handy. I was right. We have a 44 at-bat sample size here. Molina is 18/44 including three home runs and a 1.119 OPS. I like his chances to go yard, but even if he doesn’t, he should have a really good day at the plate.

Khris Davis, OF (DK: $5.1K, FD: $3.7K): Another high scoring affair should be in store down at Globe Life Park in Texas. Mike Minor allows a very high 47.2% fly ball rate and 12% HR/FB with 41.8% hard contact. Opposing righties have a .288 xISO against him. Davis’s numbers against left-handed pitching are down this year, but his .183 ISO and 40.4% hard-hit rate should still be able to get it done. He also crushes all of Minor’s pitch types. Minor throws a fastball, slider, and changeup most often to right-handed hitters. Davis has a .378 xISO against fastballs, .380 xISO against sliders, and a .395 xISO against changeups.

Javier Baez, 2B/SS (DK: $5.1K, FD: $4.1K): Buchholz has been pitching better than expected so far this season but there are still some pretty serious red flags on his resume. For starters, he’s giving up 42.9% fly balls and, while the HR/FB rate is below average, the hard contact is well above average at 46.4%. He’s allowing a .305 xISO to right-handed batters. The sample size this season is still a bit small, so I ran this year and last year and the xISO doesn’t change much at .302. Baez, who just started his first All-Star game, has an outstanding .261 ISO and 38.7% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this year. He also profiles very well against Buchholz’s pitch types (cutter, fastball, and curveball). He’s got a .378 xISO against fastballs, a .209 xISO against cutters, and a .245 xISO against curveballs.

Value Bats

Danny Valencia, 3B/OF (DK: $3.5K, FD: $2.5K): Valencia finds himself in a good position and an excellent price on both sites tonight if you need some salary relief in the outfield (or 3B on DraftKings). Pomeranz has a 4.85 xFIP, 1.89 WHIP, and allows 36.6% hard contact to right-handed batters. Valencia has a .227 ISO and .363 wOBA with a low 15.2% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season. In the last two weeks, he’s averaged 50% hard-hits, which has resulted in an average exit velocity of 99.1 mph.

Mark Canha, OF (DK: $3.8K, FD: $2.5K): Canha is too cheap on FanDuel and he’s slightly above what I consider to be the “value-tier” on DraftKings. It’s still a good price for his matchup today. He has a massive .364 ISO, .416 wOBA, and 40.3% hard-hit rate against left-handed pitchers this season. He’ll square off with Mike Minor today, who has a low 18.7% strikeout rate and a high 5.02 xFIP against right-handed hitters. Minor is allowing a .288 xISO and .381 xwOBA including 41.8% hard contact to righties so far this season.

Eric Hosmer, 1B (DK: $3.5K, FD: $2.9K): Hosmer represents an excellent value on DraftKings today at just $3.5K. Wheeler isn’t terrible against left-handed hitting, but he does allow a .177 xISO, .349 xwOBA, and 34.3% hard contact. He also walks 11.4% of left-handed batters, which is an added benefit. Hosmer’s numbers are down this season, which would explain why his price continues to plummet, but he has a career .173 ISO, .352 wOBA, and 34.6% hard-hit right against right-handed pitching.

Stacks on Stacks 🥞

There are a TON of good stacks today. I'm going to avoid the obvious ones in Coors and in Texas and talk a little about some other places I think we can go that will be under the radar:

St. Louis Cardinals (vs. Homer Bailey): What? You thought Molina was the only player I would like in this matchup? There was a time when Bailey was a strong pitcher but those days are long gone. All that’s left is a man with a 5.33 SIERA, a 13% strikeout rate and a 1.69 WHIP. He’s allowing a .249 xISO, .378 xwOBA, and 34.5% hard contact to lefties and a .302 xISO, .439 xwOBA, and a 51.7% hard contact rate to right-handed bats. Everything here obviously starts with Carpenter, considering the hot streak he’s on. He has a .291 ISO, .399 wOBA, and 50.8% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. Molina is next, who I already highlighted in the home run watchlist, and he fills in a difficult position at catcher. Jose Martinez (.198 ISO, .374 wOBA, 42.3% hard-hits), Paul DeJong (.175 ISO, .344 wOBA), and Tommy Pham (48.1% hard-hits) all make excellent parts of a stack. Secondary options include Ozuna (46.1% hard-hits) and Munoz (40% hard-hits). The Cardinals have a healthy 5.06 implied total at the time of this writing.

Detroit Tigers (vs. Burch Smith): The Tigers let me down yesterday but I’m planning to go right back to the well on tonight’s slate. They’ll face off with Burch Smith who has a 4.17 SIERA, 1.60 WHIP, and a high 11.3% walk rate. He’s allowing a .231 xISO, .345 xwOBA, and 41.7% hard contact to lefties and a .257 xISO, .385 xwOBA, and 50.8% hard contact to righties. Those numbers against right-handed batters are really intriguing considering how many there can be in the Detroit lineup. Nicholas Castellanos is always my top bat on the Tigers. He has a .191 ISO and 48.9% hard-hit rate. Niko Goodrum is next with his .226 ISO and 35% hard-hit rate. Candelario has been cold more recently but his season long numbers are still strong with a .209 ISO and 35.2% hard-hit rate. Leonys Martin is next with his .170 ISO, .352 wOBA, and 42.9% hard-hits. John Hicks is last with his 41% hard-hit rates. You can see by the numbers, these guys are very boom or bust. The wOBAs are all average or below average but the ISO and hard-hits are all above average. They are either going to strikeout or hit a bunch of home runs. If they put a beating on Smith, they’ll get extra time against the Royals bullpen and their pathetic 4.72 xFIP, 17.3% strikeout rate, and 41.8% hard contact. Detroit has a 4.76 implied run total right now – good for 10th on the slate. They should fly well under the radar and make for a solid large field GPP option.

Boston Red Sox (vs. Yefry Ramirez): With double digit implied totals in three other games today, the Red Sox are likely looking at lower than usual ownership. In fact, I think they could be very sneaky today as we also have potential weather to deal with. Anytime we are looking at Boston bats at single digit ownership, they instantly become my favorites. Honestly, there’s not much in Ramirez’s numbers that make me want to attack him. In fact, if you recall, I recommended him in his last start. But, regardless of the numbers, the sample size is really small and Ramirez is still really young. I’m absolutely going to side with this monster Boston lineup before I side with Ramirez. Plus, the one potential weakness to point out is he’s been very inefficient in his starts so far. He’s yet to make it into the sixth inning in any game. Even if he does pitch well, we are still looking at four or five innings of Red Sox bats against the Orioles bullpen that has a 4.48 xFIP and a 1.50 WHIP. The deadly duo of Mookie Betts (.282 ISO, .450 wOBA) and J.D Martinez (.349 ISO, .441 wOBA) are arguably the top two bats on this (and every) slate. Bogaerts (.278 ISO, .384 wOBA), Moreland (.232 ISO, .370 wOBA), and Benintendi (.224 ISO, .410 wOBA) are all firmly in play. Boston has the third highest implied total on the slate at 5.53, mixed in with the two teams at Coors Field and the two teams at Globe Life Park. I’m hoping they’ll be the one that flies under the radar with Ramirez having solid numbers and the total in that game being lower than the others.

What stack do you like today? Head over to Twitter to vote on your favorite stack. Got another suggestion? Let us know in the comments.

The Bullpen

Spots to Attack:

Los Angeles Angels (vs. Chicago White Sox): The Angels didn’t jump out at me because they struggle with left-handed pitching so much, but I’m not scared of Carlos Rodon. So if you ended up on some bats, I definitely wouldn’t talk you out of it. What’s appealing about this spot is once Rodon leaves the game, they’ll matchup with a poor White Sox bullpen that has a 4.31 xFIP, a 1.48 WHIP and a very poor 69.7% LOB%.

Chicago Cubs (vs Arizona Diamondbacks): I really like the Cubs today and I definitely think they are going to be low owned. I don’t trust Buchholz and I pointed out several glaring issues on his data sheet in the home run watch list. The Arizona bullpen is ranked pretty high, as far as bullpens go, but I’m honestly not sure why. They force 50.3% groundballs, which is really good, but they also have a 4.11 xFIP, only 20.9% strikeouts, and allow 40.7% hard contact. I’ll take the Cubs bats all day in this spot.

Spots to Avoid:

Baltimore Orioles (vs. Boston Red Sox): The Orioles are tempting against the lefty Drew Pomeranz, making his first start off the disabled list. I think it’s possible they pull him early though and ease him back into the rotation. At this point, Boston has a six game lead in the AL East and they are already thinking about the future. A healthy Pomeranz could help sure up a questionable back end of this rotation. If I’m right, then the Orioles are looking at five innings against a Boston bullpen that has a 3.71 xFIP, 25.9% strikeouts, and only allows 30.2% hard contact.

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @glandry if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@GP_Landry). Don't forget to sign up for the freeroll!