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Written by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GP_Landry on Twitter

Shoutout to LineStar's own @jdrujon for taking home $8,000 in PGA winnings yesterday! I think I speak for everyone at LineStar when I say...I hate you. Congrats man, well deserved. Looks like the next round of beers will be on you.

Happy Monday everyone! You awake? Yea, me neither but talking baseball will definitely help. We've got a solid 13-game slate to work with tonight and there are plenty of pitching and batting options to go around. This makes for a great cash and tournament slate tonight. Before we jump in, there are a bunch of weather concerns to talk about. We have rain threats in Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York, and Cleveland. Philadelphia, Baltimore, and New York are the biggest concerns for delays and possible PPD threats. Each of those games also has the potential for wind blowing out and temperatures will be in the upper 70's to low 80's with some humidity. They look like games that will favor the bats if they play but it's just too early to tell. Outside of that, the other game to watch is down in Texas where, for the fourth straight night, it will be over 100 degrees at first pitch. Big boost to the bats in that one as suggested by the 10.5 implied total.

Power Pitching Options

Luis Severino, NYY (@TB) (DK: $13.2K, FD: $11.4K)

For the record, I love Jacob deGrom today. He’s my top pitcher on the board against the San Diego Padres who have the highest strikeout rate in baseball. Plus, he’s $1,000 less on DraftKings than Severino is (he's actually $100 more on FanDuel so that changes things over there). He’ll be mega chalk, however, so while you’ll want him for your cash games a fade in tournaments is in play. There are several other good pitching options today including Severino, who should carry far less ownership because of the price tag. He stumbled a bit into the All-Star break allowing seven runs in his final ten innings against the Blue Jays and Indians. Now fresh, after an extended break, he gets a great matchup against the Rays to help him get back on track. He’s got a 3.21 SIERA with 28.7% strikeouts and 12.2% swinging strikes. The WHIP is outstanding at 1.01 and he has a very comfortable 83.1% LOB%. He should get a boost to his strikeout upside today as Tampa Bay strikes out 22.5% of the time against right-handed pitching. They have low power at just .136 and a .315 wOBA. When we take splits into consideration, Severino is excellent against left-handed hitters. He has 29.4% strikeouts, a 1.08 WHIP, and an 82.1% LOB%. He does allow 36.4% hard contact but only 29% fly balls and a very low 7.9% HR/FB rate. So, for the most part, people aren’t able to take advantage of the hard contact. Opposing lefties have a .145 xISO and .304 xwOBA against him this season. When facing right-handed batters, he has a 3.15 xFIP with 28.1% strikeouts and a very impressive 0.95 WHIP. He gives up a little more fly balls at 36.8% but his hard contact allowed drops to 31.9%, so he’s able to limit the damage. Right-handed hitters have a .177 xISO and .295 xwOBA against him. If you’re still not convinced, Severino’s signature slider will be a nightmare for this lineup. Only CJ Cron has above average numbers versus the slider. In fact, Tampa Bay is hitting just .180 as a team off of Severino in 55 at-bats. This will be the third time he’s faced the Rays this year. In their first meeting, way back on April 4th, he went 7.1 innings allowing five hits, two earned runs, and had seven strikeouts on his way to the quality start and the win. On June 16th, he went eight innings, allowing only three hits and zero earned runs while striking out nine and earning the win and quality start again. He’ll be virtually unowned on DraftKings the way this slate sets up, as people are not going to pay extra money for someone who has struggled in his last two starts when they have deGrom sitting there in the perfect matchup for a significant discount. But there is enough value pitching on this slate to make Severino work, and his ceiling in this matchup is similar to the other high priced pitchers. He's an elite tournament play tonight.  

Ross Stripling, LAD (@PHI) (DK: $10.2K, FD: $9.6K)

Stripling will look to keep his dream season going after an impressive first half where he finished 8-2 and made his first career All-Star game. He has a 2.86 SIERA with 28.1% strikeouts and 11% swinging strikes while only walking 3.7% of batters. His 1.08 WHIP and 90% LOB% are both fantastic and he forces 49% groundballs while allowing slightly below average 29.9% hard contact. He’ll see a good mix of hitters from both sides of the plate today in this Philadelphia lineup but his splits are really solid to both lefties and righties. We’ll start with lefties, where he has a 2.33 xFIP, 31.1% strikeouts, and only 3.6% walks. They have only a .111 xISO, .235 xwOBA, and 25% hard-hit rate against him. Plus, the BABIP is above average at .317 so left-handed hitters have actually been lucky against him despite these numbers. Against righties, the xFIP rises slightly to 3.30 while the strikeout rate drops a little to 25%. He allows a little more hard contact at 34.6% but the LOB% is impressive at 91.3%. His right-handed opponents have just a .135 xISO and .265 xwOBA against him. The best part about Stripling today? I mean, aside from the already outstanding numbers I just shared with you? He’s facing the Phillies who have the second highest strikeout rate in baseball against right-handed pitching (25.7%) and the lowest hard-hit rate (29.4%). They have a little power with their .163 ISO but a low .314 wOBA and 94 wRC+. Stripling pitched against them once already this season, back on May 30th, and he went seven innings allowing four hits with one earned run and nine strikeouts while getting the win and the quality start. Of the 65 batted balls he’s allowed in the past month, 23.1% have been soft contact and the average distance allowed has only been 180.2 feet. Watch the weather in this game as it’s looking a bit uncertain at the moment, but assuming things clear up, Stripling makes for a fantastic tournament and cash game option on tonight’s slate. 

Value Pitching Options

Daniel Poncedeleon, STL (@CIN) (DK: $5.1K, FD: $6K)

This is a very incredible story. 14 months ago, Poncedeleon was on an operating table having emergency brain surgery after a line drive struck him in the temple. There was a point where his life was in serious danger and his career was undoubtedly over. But here we are, after several weeks in an intensive care unit and several more months of rehab, he’s being recalled today to make his major league debut. Now, the first question you are asking yourself is are you recommending this kid because you WANT him to do well or because you actually think he can? The answer, honestly, is both. He’s 9-3 in Triple-A Memphis this season with a 2.15 ERA and 103 strikeouts in 92 innings of work (26.3% strikeout rate). He’s won four straight starts including a complete game one-hitter in his most recent appearance a week ago. His splits are solid. When facing left-handed batters, he’s allowing a .222 BA, .341 OBP, .347 SLG, and only a .688 OPS. The BABIP is actually a bit high at .333 as well, which suggests he could see some improvement on these numbers as the season rolls on. Against righties, he’s allowing a .179 BA, .284 OBP, .258 SLG, and a .536 OPS. Those are pretty impressive numbers, albeit against minor league lineups. Don't get me wrong, he has his fair share of red flags. The xFIP is concerning at 4.99 and he's walking 12.3% of batters. The Reds' numbers against right-handed pitching this season, however, are not intimidating. They strikeout at an average rate of 21.1%. They have a low .144 team ISO and a good, not great, .321 wOBA. It’s always risky rostering a pitcher in his major league debut and that risk is increased considering the game is being played at Great American Ballpark. Vegas does not agree with me, as the Reds have one of the higher implied totals on the slate, so I’ll tell you right now do not go crazy here. This is a "sprinkle in a few shares of him across multiple GPP lineups" kind of play. But, the strikeout upside is there and he’s cheap enough that you could roll the dice in a few lineups and fit in plenty of bats (and a high upside SP1) around him. At this price, with the high strikeouts and the low ownership I'm expecting, I’ll have a few shares myself. Regardless of the outcome, I'll definitely be cheering hard for him tonight.

Eric Lauer, SD (@NYM) (DK: $4K, FD: $7.4K)

UPDATE: Eric Lauer has been scratched! He's being replaced by another left-handed pitcher Joey Lucchesi so the information that follows about how bad the Mets are against lefties still applies. Lucchesi has better numbers and strikeout upside than Lauer, but he's significantly more expensive at $8.3K on DraftKings (he's actually $100 less than Lauer on FanDuel). He's absolutely in play but he certainly comes with more risk and he doesn't give you the salary savings. I'll still be using him in tournaments. His pricing on DraftKings today feels like a mistake doesn’t it? I know he’s been a bit inconsistent, but $4K? That seems ridiculous. It’s typically an instant eye opener for me when a pitcher is priced so much lower on DraftKings than he is on FanDuel. This is a guy who pitched a gem, only two starts ago, against a difficult Dodgers lineup where he went 8.2 innings allowing four hits, one earned run and eight strikeouts. He’s not safe by any means, but he certainly has shown the upside several times this season. Plus, the Mets are AWFUL against left-handed pitching this season. When I say awful, I mean they are literally the worst team in baseball against lefties. They strikeout 26.1% of the time and have only a .116 ISO, .281 wOBA, 77 wRC+, and just 32% hard-hits. I know what you’re thinking. They got Cespedes back so doesn’t that change things? I’m not even sure if Cespedes plays. If you missed the news, Cespedes made his return to the lineup after nine weeks on the disabled list but was out again the next day and could barely walk. It was revealed that he needs surgery on both heels and the recovery time could be eight to ten months! I don’t know at this point, with the Mets season all but over, if they risk further damage and play him sparingly or if they opt for him to get the surgery done now and hope for a quick recovery so he doesn’t miss all of next season. I’m getting off track, but the point is the Mets are very bad against lefties and yes, Cespedes is a threat. So if he’s in the lineup, I’ll likely scale back my exposure to Lauer slightly. But he’s only one player and he’s very clearly not 100%, so him being in the lineup will not force me to fade Lauer completely. I won’t lie to you, Lauer’s numbers are not pretty. He has a high xFIP and low strikeouts against lefties, but he does manage a 50% groundball rate and allow a below average .149 xISO and .332 xwOBA. Against righties, the xFIP drops to a more reasonable 4.25 and the strikeout rate rises to a better 21.3%, but he allows a higher xISO (.169) and a higher .xwOBA (.355) and over 40% hard contact. He’s far from a sure thing, but I can’t get past the numbers for the Mets against left-handed pitching or the price tag for Lauer today. You can fit him in with any of the top tier pitching options and still have more than enough room to roster the bats you want. I’ll probably wind up locking him into my SP2 spot on DraftKings today. Don’t play him on FanDuel, he’s too expensive and you don’t need the salary relief as much over there.     

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential.

David Peralta, OF (DK: $4.8K, FD: $3.5K): The Diamondbacks get a nice park upgrade going to Wrigley Field and Peralta will look to take full advantage of it against Luke Farrell, who will get the start for the Cubs today. Going back to the start of last season, Farrell has really struggled with left-handed hitters. We’ll talk about that in greater detail in the stack section but, for now, Farrell is allowing a massive 54% fly ball rate with 14.8% HR/FB and a .209 xISO. Peralta has a .244 ISO and 48.7% hard-hits against righties this season. He also hits Farrell’s pitch types well including a .225 ISO versus fastballs and a .410 ISO versus sliders.  

Matt Carpenter, 1B/3B (DK: $5.5K, FD: $4.2K): Matt Carpenter since we returned from the All-Star break: 8/16, 6 home runs, 10 RBIs. He has a 1.538 ISO, a 1.077 wOBA, and a 2.154 slugging percentage. WHAT? Now normally I would tell you recent results don’t matter and this hot streak won’t be sustainable, at least not at this level. But I’m paying attention because Matt Carpenter is still really good even when he’s not hitting at a superhuman level like he is now. He has a .291 ISO and 50.8% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season. He’ll take on Luis Castillo who is bad against lefties. He allows a massive .260 xISO and 44.7% hard-hit rate. Even if Carpenter starts to regress back to his season long numbers, he’d still be on my radar for a long ball today. The fact that he’s in the middle of this ridiculous hot streak just makes him that much more appealing. I don't care what his price is. It shouldn't be difficult to make him fit on this slate. 

Chad Pinder, OF (DK: $4.2K, FD: $2.5K): Pinder’s price on FanDuel is a joke. You could really make the argument for him to be a value bat today, but I like his chances of getting a home run so much that I’m going to put him here instead. First, he gets a great park upgrade going from O.Co to Globe Life Park where it will once again be over 100 degrees. Second, he’s facing Cole Hamels who allows a .235 xISO and 45.3% hard contact to right-handed hitters. Last, he smokes left-handed pitching with a .204 ISO and an unbelievable 61.9% hard-hit rate. He profiles very well against Hamels pitch types as well, in case you needed more convincing.  

Value Bats

Ryan Rua, OF (DK: $3.5K, FD: $2K): I’m assuming Rua will get the start today against the lefty in yet another game in Texas with a Coors-like implied total on tonight’s slate. Anderson is a high groundball pitcher but he has very little strikeout abilities, especially against right-handed hitters, at just 14.8% and he allows an ugly .254 xISO and .389 xwOBA. Rua is a very inexpensive way to get some exposure to this game and his numbers against left-handed pitching are excellent with a .288 ISO, .331 wOBA and 43.9% hard-hit rate. Typically he’s known for being a very high strikeout guy, but so far this season, in 52 at-bats, he has only a 19.3% strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers. His spot in the lineup will ultimately determine just how much exposure I have to him today, but you can't beat his price for the upside he brings on either site.

Jose Abreu, 1B (DK: $3.5K, FD: $3.2K) He's still too cheap on DraftKings. He's facing off with Jaime Barria today, who has a really hard time with right-handed bats. He's allowing a ridiculous .313 xISO, .433 xwOBA, and 41.4% hard contact. If I had any faith at all in the White Sox lineup, they'd be one of my favorite stack options today. Abreu's numbers are certainly down this season, I'm not denying that, but his current BABIP (.267) and his career numbers are still suggesting he'll see some positive regression down the stretch. He has a .214 ISO, .361 wOBA, and 34.8% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching.

Adrian Beltre, 3B (DK: $3.9K, FD: $2.5K): Adrian Beltre is $2.5K on FanDuel against a lefty in Texas today. I’ll give you a minute to stop choking on your food. One more time, Adrian Beltre is $2.5K on FanDuel against a lefty in Texas today. If you read my article yesterday, I recommended Beltre because of how cheap he was on DraftKings ($2.9K). Well, they noticed he was facing a lefty and jacked up his price by $1000. FanDuel, however, raised it only $100. I don’t get it, but it doesn’t matter. This is what we have to work with. You pretty much have to play him, so figure out other ways to differentiate yourself. The power against lefties hasn’t been there this season with just a .078 ISO compared to his career .216 ISO but the wOBA this season is solid at .352 and much closer to his .381 career wOBA. He’s also still maintaining his 43.1% hard-hit rate.  

Stacks on Stacks 🥞

Texas Rangers (vs. Brett Anderson): Welp, I already mentioned two members of this Texas lineup in the value bat section, so I think you know where I’m going with this. To be honest, even though he’s $1,400 more on DraftKings, I still think Beltre is underpriced in this spot over there as well. Anderson has a 4.88 SIERA, only 13.8% strikeouts, and a 1.75 WHIP. Excellent stacking material. He's particularly bad against right-handed hitters where he allows a .254 xISO and .389 xwOBA. He’s better against lefties, but still not great, allowing a .177 xISO and .394 xwOBA. Profar (.230 ISO, .366 wOBA), Guzman (.220 ISO, .362 wOBA), Beltre (.352 wOBA, 43.1% hard-hits), and Rua (.288 ISO, 43.9% hard-hits) are all excellent (and affordable) parts of a stack. I will add Chirinos in there as a secondary option as well, with his .208 ISO and 45.2% hard-hits. Willie Calhoun’s price has sky rocketed on DraftKings but he’s still very affordable on FanDuel if you want to include him as well. 

Detroit Tigers (vs. Heath Fillmyer): I love this spot for Detroit today. They start off against Fillmyer who, in a limited sample size, is getting rocked by right-handed hitters. He has a 5.43 xFIP with a miserable 9.7% strikeout rate and a 9.7% walk rate. His WHIP against righties is over two and he allows 28.6% HR/FB and 56% hard contact. Remember, it’s a small sample size, and the BABIP is really high right now at .348, so you should lower your expectations here. But even after regression, he’ll still be allowing above average hard contact and he has zero strikeout abilities. Things aren’t much better for Fillmyer against lefties either. Sure, the ERA looks really good at just 0.96 and the 90% LOB% is impressive, but he has tons of regression coming his way. The super low ERA is backed by a very high 5.30 xFiP and the BABIP is incredibly low at .192. He also walks more right-handed batters (14.3%) than he strikes out (11.4%). Bottom line, this guy is not very good at pitching and he’ll be supported by the worst bullpen in baseball. The Royals relievers have a 4.71 xFIP with only 17.3% strikeouts and allow 41.9% hard contact. How is that even possible? You could tell me that Detroit was rolling out their Triple-A affiliate tonight and giving their starters the night off and I’d still have interest. Your priorities are Castellanos (.191 ISO, 48.9% hard-hits), Martin (.352 wOBA, 42.9% hard-hits), Goodrum (.226 ISO), Candelario (.197 ISO), and Hicks (41.3% hard-hits). If you happen to land on another player in this lineup who wasn’t part of this priority list, I wouldn’t hesitate to use them. I’ll be stacking this entire lineup today. 

Arizona Diamondbacks (vs. Luke Farrell): I hinted earlier about Luke Farrell’s issue with lefties and now we’ll go into greater detail. Arizona has the ability to roll out as many as six left-handed batters plus Paul Goldschmidt and AJ Pollock. This is basically Farrell’s worst nightmare. He has a 6.65 xFIP with 20.5% strikeouts and 19.3% walks against left-handed hitters. The WHIP is extremely high at 1.88 in addition to the 54% fly ball rate I mentioned in the home run watch list. He’s giving up a .209 xISO and .367 xwOBA. This puts the aforementioned Peralta along with Descalso (.212 ISO, .361 wOBA), Lamb (45.5% hard-hits), and Avila (54.9% hard-hits) in the conversation for stacks today. Farrell is solid against righties with a 3.64 xFIP and 29% strikeouts while allowing just a .166 xISO and .283 xwOBA but it’s a small sample size and I’d put my money on Goldschmidt (.222 ISO, .365 wOBA) and Pollock (.264 ISO, .400 wOBA) any day of the week.  There's no wind today in either direction but this is still a solid park upgrade going from Chase Field to Wrigley Field. Arizona is my favorite under the radar stack today.

The Bullpen

Spots to Attack:

Atlanta Braves (vs. Miami Marlins): I’m a little surprised at how low the Braves total is. I get it, Urena has been a bright spot in that Miami rotation this season, but he’s not great against left-handed hitters with his 4.18 xFIP and very low 16.8% strikeouts. That won’t do him any favors against a team that starts their lineup out with Inciarte, Albies, Freeman, and Markakis. The downside here is the ballpark, which is likely why their implied total is lower than I had projected, but I still think they can do some damage. Once Urena gets the hook, they will face off against a Marlins bullpen that has a 4.45 xFIP, only a 68% LOB%, and allows 37.8% hard contact.

Toronto Blue Jays (vs. Minnesota Twins): The Jays were another team I considered for the stack section but, ultimately, they aren’t as good against left-handed pitching. They lose Granderson plus Smoak, Morales, and Grichuk are all worse against lefties. Still, that doesn’t mean they can’t get to the Mejia, who is being recalled to make a spot start today. And if that does happen, the Jays would matchup with a weak Minnesota bullpen that has a 1.42 WHIP and allows 38.5% hard contact.

Spots to Avoid:

Washington Nationals (vs. Milwaukee Brewers): The Nationals have a solid implied run total today but they are still struggling and falling way below expectations at this point in the season. I think there is potential, with all the left-handed bats in their lineup, that they could get to Chacin today. But once they do, it just means extra at-bats against a very good Brewers bullpen that has a 3.46 xFIP, 27.4% strikeout rate, and 13% swinging strikes.

Cleveland Indians (vs. Pittsburgh Pirates): I’m sure this is a hot take, but this feels like a good spot to jump off the Indians train (at least for a day) as I anticipate they will be super chalk today. People will see their implied total from Vegas today and the runs they put up over the weekend and jump to roster them. But they are coming off of a weekend against several bad pitchers down in the extreme Texas heat and today they return home, which is still a good hitter’s park, but not nearly as good as Texas, where it will be drastically cooler. Trevor Williams is not a good pitcher by any means and if you end up on Indians bats in cash, you’re absolutely fine, but I do think the tournament fade is in play. Williams is supported by a solid Pirates bullpen that has a 3.90 xFIP, 25.6% strikeouts, and allows only 32.6% hard contact.  

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @glandry if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@GP_Landry).  Don't forget to sign up for the freeroll!