Written by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GP_Landry on Twitter

Is anybody going to ship some big money in PGA today? Justin Rose at least got me back into the green with that 64 he shot yesterday so I have the “min cash” sweats going on today. Obviously not very exciting but it will give me something to watch. For the moment though, our attention is on baseball. We’ve got a nine-game slate on DraftKings and an eight-game slate on FanDuel to discuss. FanDuel left the 3:10 game between Cleveland and Texas off of its main slate. The headline of today’s slate is the starting pitcher’s for both All-Star teams are on the hill this afternoon. We’ll take a closer look and see if either of them stand out over the other. There are plenty of spots for bats but assuming you’re planning to use either Sale or Scherzer we’ll need to figure out how to fit all the pieces together and stay under the salary cap. I’m going to sound like a broken record this week but the weather will play a role yet again today. The east coast is dealing with a lot of rain in the coming days. My local forecast here in Massachusetts is calling for rain every day between now and Saturday. We have threats of rain in Detroit, Cincinnati, Washington, and Chicago. Of those four places, Washington is the most likely for a significant delay or even PPD. We have cooler temperatures throughout most of the league with the one exception being Texas where it’s still well over 100 degrees. We are looking at 11-12 mph winds blowing out in Detroit (though it’s only going to be 66 degrees) and 14-15 mph winds blowing in at Wrigley Field. As always, have a backup plan in place in case you need to make a last minute change due to weather conditions.

Power Pitching Options

This isn’t a game of blind resume this is just simply a side by side comparison of the two best pitchers in baseball who both happened to start the All-Star game for their respective leagues. They are clearly the two guys you are paying up for today but, obviously, we can’t afford both so I’m hoping that taking a close look at the numbers like this might point out a reason that we should lean one way or the other.

We’ll start with a full-season view. The numbers are incredibly similar. Sale has a 16% swinging strike rate, with 6.1% walks, a 0.90 WHIP, and 82% LOB%. Scherzer has a 16.7% swinging strike rate with 6.5% walks, a 0.90 WHIP, and an 83.2% LOB%. There are a few places from this angle though where I think Sale has an advantage. His SIERA is slightly lower (2.40 to 2.74) and his strikeout rate is a bit higher (37.2% to 34.5%) although Scherzer does have a slightly better swinging strike rate. Scherzer also has a lower BABIP (.249 compared to .281 for Sale) and a lower groundball rate (35.5% to 44.9%) while allowing more hard contact.

Obviously, each player is going to have an advantage when it comes to splits against left and right-handed batters because Sale is a lefty and Scherzer is a righty. But, I’m curious to see if anything glaring stands out when we look at the data. Sale has a masterful 1.79 xFIP with a 39.8% strikeout rate and 17.8% swinging strikes. He only walks 3.4% of lefties he faces, with a 0.68 WHIP and a 48.9% groundball rate. He has yet to give up a home run to a left-handed hitter this season and he’s limiting them to 21.3% hard contact, a .074 xISO, and .200 xwOBA. Scherzer’s numbers against lefties are also impressive with a 3.52 xFIP, 32% strikeouts and 14.8% swinging strikes. He’s only walking 7.2% of righties, with a 1.00 WHIP and his LOB% is better than Sale. Scherzer is allowing a low 26.5% hard contact rate, .142 xISO, and .249 xwOBA. Sale has the advantage but that’s what we would expect and both players are still very good.

This is where it gets interesting. This is the part of my research that stood out and made me want to write these guys up in this more comparative format. I didn’t think it would sink in as well if I did an individual write-up on each of them. Sale is better against right-handed batters than Scherzer is. My assumption, naturally, was that each pitcher would have a clear advantage when facing a batter with the same handedness as they have. Not the case. Sale has a better xFIP (2.58), LOB% (83.7%), groundball rate (44.1%), hard contact allowed (27.8%), xISO (.149), and xwOBA (.252) than Scherzer. Where Scherzer does have the advantage is in the strikeout upside but it’s not by much. He has a 37.4% strikeout rate against righties compared to 36.7% for Sale. The swinging strikes stand out a bit more for Scherzer with his 20.8% swinging strike rate compared to Sale’s 16.5%. But, Scherzer allowing 47.1% fly balls, a 10.8% HR/FB rate, 37% hard contact, and a .190 xISO to righties is definitely a red flag for someone we need to spend over $13K on to roster. Let’s take a look at one more set of data.

The two of them are facing very similar opponents today. Atlanta is clearly better than Detroit overall but because Detroit is such a right-handed heavy lineup they stack up well when facing a left-handed pitcher. Both teams have low strikeout rates and very similar GB/FB ratios. The Tigers have a .153 ISO, .323 wOBA, and 36.6% hard-hit rate compared to the Braves with a .151 ISO, .313 wOBA, and 35.7% hard-hit rate. In this case, the Tigers are actually a more difficult matchup for Sale than the Braves are for Scherzer. But, because of how impressive Sale is against right-handed hitters and the fact that he has zero red flags on his resume, I’m taking him over Scherzer today. There’s not a big enough difference in the numbers between their opponents and Sale is standing out with his splits to both sides of the plate compared to Scherzer who does have a few red flags. Plus, they are priced only $200 apart on DraftKings so it’s not like we are getting any help in the salary saving department. The pricing gap is larger on FanDuel, so you have a better argument to use Scherzer on that site, but still, after this comparison, I’m still trying to find the extra $700 for Sale. Pricing is typically so soft on FanDuel that it shouldn’t be difficult to still make a lineup you like. Both of these guys make for excellent options today and I would imagine people are going to see the same things I’m seeing and lean Sale as well so you could definitely make a case for Scherzer in tournaments given the lower ownership.

Value Pitching Options

J.A. Happ, TOR (vs. BAL) (DK: $8.6K, FD: $8K)

Happ represents a nice mid-tier option today against the lowly Baltimore Orioles who, despite being right-handed heavy, struggle with left-handed pitching. They have just a .137 ISO, .289 wOBA, 80 wRC+ and only a 28.8% hard-hit rate (lowest in baseball). These numbers include Manny Machado who obviously isn’t on the team anymore. Happ, in what could possibly be his last appearance in a Blue Jays uniform as he’s been the topic of trade rumors recently, should be able to take care of business for us today. He has a 3.63 SIERA with 26.5% strikeouts and a comfortable 1.19 WHIP. He forces 44.4% groundballs while allowing average 30.2% hard contact. If we look at the splits, he will see one left-handed bat today (Chris Davis). Happ has a 2.66 xFIP with 28.6% strikeouts, a 0.93 WHIP, and a 59.6% groundball rate. Lefties have only a .121 xISO and .272 xwOBA against him. I admit, after all the time I’ve spent hassling him in this article, Chris Davis has been a little better recently, but I doubt he does much here today and he should be good for at least a couple of strikeouts. What we really care about is the right-handed batters as there will be eight of them today. His xFIP is fine, it doesn’t leap out at you, but 4.05 isn’t scary. He still has plenty of strikeout upside as well at 26%. The groundball rate does drop pretty significantly and he allows a .199 xISO and .315 xwOBA. If this were any other team that had this many right-handed bats I might be less confident in my decision to roster Happ but the Orioles, even more so now without Machado, are just not a team we will shy away from. This will be the third time Happ has faced them this season and he’s been dominant in both appearances. In the first game, he went six innings allowing one earned run and nine strikeouts while getting the win and quality start. In the second one, he went seven innings allowing just two hits and zero earned runs. He only had three strikeouts in that game which isn’t ideal but the run prevention was outstanding and he still picked up the win and quality start. If he put up those kind of numbers previously, and now he doesn’t have to worry about Machado, I don’t see how you can’t like him today.

Jake Odorizzi, MIN (@KAN) (DK: $6K, FD: $7.3K)

This one is all about the matchup and Odorizzi’s strikeout potential. I don’t love rostering right-handed pitchers against Kansas City because of their very low 19.8% strikeout rate, but Odorizzi has enough strikeout upside (23.7%) to help overcome that and he’s incredibly cheap on DraftKings today at just $6K. The good news about using pitchers against the Royals is they might not strikeout very much, but they don’t hit the ball very well either. They are one of the worst teams in baseball against right-handed pitching with only a .130 ISO, .292 wOBA, and 81 wRC+. Odorizzi’s splits aren’t great, particularly to lefties, where he has a 5.19 xFIP, 50% fly ball rate, 37% hard contact, and allows a .258 xISO and .374 xwOBA. Yikes. But, he does have a respectable 22% strikeout rate, including 10.9% swinging strikes, and Moustakas and Duda are really the only lefties we need to worry about. Duda also doesn’t hit split-fingered fastballs well at all so that should help reduce the threat. Things look better, but not great, against righties. He has a 4.48 xFIP and still allows 45.9% fly balls but manages to keep most of them in the yard with only an 8.3% HR/FB rate. They have a .186 xISO and .335 xwOBA against him so far this season. What should help Odorizzi here is his increased use of the slider against right-handed hitters. None of the right-handed bats in this Royals, including Merrifield and Perez, can hit sliders. It’s not pretty, but there is definitely a path to success for him today against this weak lineup. I wouldn’t use him on FanDuel, he’s too expensive over there and you won’t need him, but I think he makes for a great SP2 in tournaments today on DraftKings and will open up salary for the bats you need.

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential.

Jason Kipnis, 2B (DK: $4.5K, FD: $3.4K): Against left-handed batters, Gallardo has a very low 15.5% strikeout rate while allowing a 34.6% hard contact rate. That’s usually the first sign of trouble. He gives up 34.6% fly balls of which 22.2% end up in the seats which has resulted in 2.35 HR/9. Opposing lefties have a .198 xISO against him this season. Kipnis doesn’t have a ton of power but he does profile extremely well against Gallardo’s pitch types (fastball, two-seam fastball, and slider). Kipnis has a .228 xISO against the fastball, .302 xISO against two-seam fastballs, and a .222 xISO against sliders. He makes for a great middle infield option with home run potential today.

Eugenio Suarez, 3B (DK: $5.2K, FD: $3.7K): Nova is actually pretty solid against right-handed hitters. He has a 3.10 xFIP with 24.2% strikeouts and a 52.4% groundball rate. He’s far from safe, however, as he still allows a very high 22.5% HR/FB and 35.1% hard contact. Opposing righties have a .190 xISO against him this season. Suarez has a .249 ISO and 50.9% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. He also matches up well with Nova’s pitch types. He throws a two-seam fastball, fastball, and curveball most often to righties. Suarez has a .205 xISO against fastballs, a .329 xISO against two-seam fastballs, and a .253 xISO against curveballs. I’ll add that he’s underpriced on FanDuel at just $3.7K.

Justin Smoak, 1B (DK: $4.7K, FD: $3.8K): This is the second time in three days I’m calling Smoak’s name but this is another outstanding spot. He’s had a very up and down season. He started off on fire for the first month then went on a long stretch where he was ice cold before heating back up again heading into the break. He has a .271 ISO and 38.3% hard-hit rate and gets to face Andrew Cashner today, making his first start off the disabled list. Cashner allows 40.7% fly balls and 16.4% HR/FB. Opposing lefties have a .242 xISO against him. He throws a mix of pitches including a fastball, two-seam fastball, changeup, and curveball. Smoak has a .369 xISO versus fastballs, a .387 xISO versus two-seam fastballs, a .272 xISO versus changeups, and a .328 xISO versus curveballs.

Value Bats

Jake Cave, OF (DK: $3.3K, $2.7K): Cave is a great value on both sites today. The only downside about him is he typically gets a poor spot in the batting order. Brad Keller doesn’t give up a ton of power (only a .104 xISO) but he does allow a high .354 xwOBA to lefties. He also strikes out less left-handed hitters (13%) than he walks (16%). Cave is still very early in his career but he continues to impress. He has a .238 ISO, .391 wOBA, and 43.8% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitchers in 63 plate appearances. Even if he gets one less at-bat because he hits so low in the order there should be more than enough opportunities for him to return value in this matchup. For the record, Logan Morrison is expected to be activated from the disabled list today. He’s also a great value. I’ve got another first baseman I want to highlight and I’m trying to mix up positions to help you with roster construction as much as I can but I figured it was worth mentioning. He’s $3K on both sites which makes him an incredible value on DraftKings.

Adrian Beltre, 3B (DK: $2.9K): Simply put, this is too cheap for a hitter of Beltre's caliber. I prefer him against left-handed pitching but that doesn't mean he can't get it done against righties either. He has a solid .184 ISO, and .348 wOBA against right-handed pitching in his last 150 games. Clevinger isn't a guy I'd prefer to attack but for this price tag, in this ballpark, and this heat, I think Beltre does more than enough to return value for you today.

Kendrys Morales, 1B (DK: $4K, FD: $2.5K): The price on Morales today on FanDuel is a crime that we need to take full advantage of. I considered him over Smoak for the home run watch list today. He’s got an excellent .206 ISO and 45.8% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season. He matches up well on three of the four pitch types that Cashner throws. He only struggles with changeups which is ultimately why I went with Smoak instead who hits all of them well. I’ll take three of four any day though for this price tag and against a pitcher that’s allowing a .242 xISO and .366 xwOBA to left-handed batters.

Stacks on Stacks 🥞

Another incredibly hot day in Texas with the Indians facing a bad pitcher after scoring 16 runs last night. They will be mega-chalk today but for good reason. I like them plenty and I’m perfectly comfortable eating chalk when it’s this good but I understand the game theory perspective if you want to fade. It’s going to be very difficult to fit them in with Lindor and Brantley both over $5K on DraftKings and Ramirez over $6K. I’m not counting them as one of my stack options today because it’s too obvious but just thought it was worth quickly discussing.

Toronto Blue Jays (vs. Andrew Cashner): Cashner is returning from a recurring neck injury that sent him to the disabled list prior to the All-Star break. He received a cortisone injection to help but it sounds to me like he’s not 100%. I guess Baltimore figured a not fully healthy Cashner is still better than Chris Tillman (sigh….they’re right). This is all very good news for the Blue Jays bats as they should smash his pitches all over the park. Cashner allows a .242 xISO and .366 xwOBA to lefties and a .170 xISO and .366 xwOBA to righties. Because of all the power he allows to left-handed hitters, I’m prioritizing them, but both sides are very much in play. Smoak is first, go back and read the home run watch list if you need to be reminded why, Morales is next with a .206 ISO and 45.8% hard-hit rate, followed by Granderson with a .205 ISO and .349 wOBA. As far as right-handed bats go, Grichuk (.270 ISO, 39% hard-hits), Hernandez (.218 ISO, 39.2% hard-hits), and Diaz (.202 ISO, 34.3% hard-hits) are excellent parts of a Toronto stack today. On FanDuel, Grichuk, Granderson, and Morales are ridiculously all under $3K which makes this not only an outstanding but also super affordable stack.

Cincinnati Reds (vs. Ivan Nova): The Reds let me down yesterday but I’m going right back to the well today against Ivan Nova. He has only a 12.1% strikeout rate to go along with a 4.93 xFIP against left-handed batters. He’s allowing a massive .279 xISO and .396 xwOBA so far this season. Votto (.176 ISO, .413 wOBA), Gennett (.195 ISO, .389 wOBA), and Winkler (.383 wOBA, 48.4% hard-hit rate) are all at the top of my list. Nova is better against righties but far from elite. I already talked in detail about how much I like Suarez in the home run watchlist section. Jose Peraza has a fine .331 wOBA if you need him and Duvall has a .183 ISO if you can stomach how low his floor is. Honestly, I wouldn’t get too cute here. Votto, Gennett, Winkler, and Suarez are all in tremendous spots. You’re going to pay a hefty price for this stack but I love the upside it brings to the table today.

Los Angeles Dodgers (vs. Brent Suter): We are going to get our first look at the full Dodgers lineup since the trade for Manny Machado as Justin Turner is expected back today. There is going to be a deadly stretch of right-handed power at the top of the order that’s going to be really difficult for Suter to navigate. Taylor (.231 ISO, .339 wOBA), Machado (.235 ISO, .368 wOBA), Turner (.385 wOBA, 40.5% hard-hits), Kemp (.272 ISO, .391 wOBA, 50% hard-hits), and Hernandez (.210 ISO) make for an outstanding stack today. Suter has been fine this season. Not a guy you get very excited about rostering in DFS but not a guy you are looking to attack either. What’s interesting about him is he actually has reverse splits, allowing a .206 xISO and .339 xwOBA to lefties which even puts Grandal, Bellinger, and Pederson in play (though I wouldn’t prioritize them). Overall, this is just a really bad matchup for Suter. The combination of strong hitters from both sides of the plate and Suter’s reverse splits leave him very little room for error. It’s a nice park shift for the Dodger’s hitters and they should fly under the radar today compared to some of the other teams with higher implied run totals on the board. I like them as a sneaky, larger field, GPP stack.

The Bullpen

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @glandry if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@GP_Landry).