Written by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GP_Landry on Twitter

I hope your first day back from the All-Star break treated you well last night. It's Saturday, which normally means split slates, but the early slate is only three games so I'm going to just focus on the 11-game main slate for the newsletter today. Pitching isn't great. There are certainly arms we can use but I'm not really in love with any of them. Nobody is standing out as a "must play" (makes for a great tournament slate). The weather will play a role again today and from what I understand it's going to be like this most of the upcoming week. As far as rain goes, there are threats in Detroit, Washington, Chicago, and Philadelphia. Washington and Philadelphia both look grim, to say the least, but it's still far too early to make any definitive calls. If you like players from either of those games then have a backup lineup in place that pivots away from them if you need it. Looking at temperatures, Texas stands out yet again, where it's going to be 109 degrees at first pitch. Big boost to the bats as if they needed it in that park to begin with. It's also 82 degrees in Los Angeles with some possible 10 mph winds blowing out and it's going to be 92 degrees in Kansas City tonight so bump to the bats in both of those games. We have a Wrigley game today and the wind is expected to be blowing in around 16 mph so boost to the pitchers in that one. The total is set at just 7.5. There is a lot to pay attention to so plan accordingly.

Power Pitching Options

Clayton Kershaw, LAD (@MIL) (DK: $11.9K, FD: $10.7K)

Kershaw is a hard player to figure out right now. He still doesn’t feel quite like vintage Kershaw to me but he’s managed to put together three consecutive quality starts with at least six innings with no more than three earned runs. His xFIP during that span is a comfortable 3.73 and he had eight strikeouts in his last start against a difficult Angels team. That’s certainly not a large enough sample size for me to confidently say he’s back but it’s enough for me to say that he’s getting there and I think these performances represent his floor. His ceiling would be his numbers dating back to the start of last season where he has a 3.13 SIERA with 28.5% strikeouts and 13.1% swinging strikes. His 0.99 WHIP, 86.1% LOB%, and 47.6% groundball rate are all excellent. As far as splits go, against lefties he has a 3.21 xFIP with 26% strikeouts to only 3.4% walks. The WHIP is great at 1.1 and the LOB% is outstanding at 95.4%. The groundball rate does drop and the HR/FB rate rises to 19.2% but he’s still allowing an average .170 xISO and a below average .324 xwOBA. Against right-handed batters, he has a 2.83 xFIP with 29.1% strikeouts with a 0.96 WHIP, 49.7% groundball rate, and just 28% hard contact. Opposing righties have a very low .128 xISO and .289 xwOBA against him. Ultimately, at least for the moment, I think he falls somewhere in between “Current Kershaw” and “Vintage Kershaw” and since he’s priced closer to what he’s doing now I think it’s a good time to buy low while we can before his price begins climbing back into the $13K or more range. On top of that, he gets a good matchup today against a Milwaukee lineup that struggles with left-handed pitching. Despite all the power bats in this lineup, much of it comes from the left side so the Brewers only have a .154 ISO, .297 wOBA, and 89 wRC+ against lefties this season. I like Kershaw to continue building on the progress he’s starting to make and I’ll gladly take him, at a significant discount compared to Verlander (who has struggled quite a bit recently) and in a much better matchup. He makes for a nice cash game play and is in consideration for tournaments depending on his ownership. If he’s chalk, I will pivot as he’s not chalk I’m ready to eat just yet, but if he’s low owned I’ll gladly go overweight on him compared to the field today.

Trevor Cahill, OAK (vs. SF) (DK: $9K, FD: $6.9K)

Cahill got roughed up in his first start back from the disabled list but it was a very tough matchup against the Astros so I’m willing to overlook that. Rostering pitchers in their first game off the disabled list is never a good idea to begin with. Today presents a much more favorable spot against a Giants team that really doesn’t have much that will scare me away from using pitchers to attack them. As a team, they have a low .142 ISO, .312 wOBA and 97 wRC+. Brandon Belt and Alen Hanson are the only two players with an ISO over .180. They also strikeout 23.5% of the time and their BABIP is high at .321 so they’ve been getting a little lucky on the balls they put in play. All in all, this team is struggling. They might get a boost with Evan Longoria set to return next week but until that happens I’m fine using pitchers against them. Since Cahill spent some time on the disabled list, his sample size from this season is a little small, but if we look at this year and last year his numbers are solid. Against lefties, he has a 3.99 xFIP with 23.6% strikeouts and a massive 58.3% groundball rate. Hitters have only a .131 xISO and .307 xwOBA against him since last season. When facing right-handed bats, he has a 3.59 xFIP with a similar 23.2% strikeout rate and a still very high 56.1% groundball rate. Opposing righties have a .187 xISO and .331 xwOBA against him. Outside of Belt, Hanson, and Crawford this Giants lineup is pretty poor. McCutchen has just a .142 ISO and .333 wOBA while Posey has only a .091 ISO and .315 wOBA against right-handers this season. He’s an absolute steal today on FanDuel at just $6.9K and my favorite tournament option on the board over there. The DraftKings price is a little tougher to swallow but he has three starts this season with 28 DraftKings points or more, so the ceiling is there, especially against this Giants team that likes to strikeout.

Value Pitching Options

Vince Velasquez, PHI (vs. SD) (DK: $7.8K, FD: $8.3K)

I don’t like using pitchers in this ballpark but you simply can’t argue with this matchup today. The Padres are the worst team in baseball against right-handed pitching this season. They have an awful 25.9% strikeout rate with a .122 ISO, .286 wOBA, and 81 wRC+. Velasquez’s weakness is left-handed bats. He has a 4.25 xFIP which is actually a lot better than his 5.36 ERA. He walks 10.1% of lefties with only a 63.3% LOB%. He allows 46.3% fly balls of which 17.5% end up as home runs which has led to 1.91 HR/9 against lefties. They have a .183 xISO and .331 xwOBA against him. But, even with all that said, which lefties do we think can take advantage of this weakness? Hosmer is fine but I’m not overly concerned with his .166 ISO and .329 wOBA. After him the only other lefties are Jankowski (.083 ISO, .330 wOBA), Spangenberg (.144 ISO, .294 wOBA), and Galvis (.080 ISO, .259 wOBA). I’m not losing any sleep over those guys. Plus, I forgot to mention that despite Velasquez not having great numbers he still has a 26.3% strikeout rate against lefties. Meanwhile, Hosmer (24.5%), Spangenberg (31.3%), and Galvis (24.3%) all strikeout at an above average rate. Against righties, Velasquez is magnificent with a 3.36 xFIP, 29.4% strikeouts and a lower 7.6% walk rate. The fly ball rate comes down, the HR/FB and HR/9 both decrease as well. Opponents from this side of the plate have just a .177 xISO and .315 xwOBA against him. I just can’t see any scenario where I wouldn’t want shares of Velasquez in this spot. The only potential red flag, and unfortunately it's a big one, is the weather. Philadelphia is one of the games on the possible PPD list today. If this game plays, he’s firmly in play for tournaments and given the matchup I’m okay with him being on your radar as an SP2 in cash games (again, weather pending).

Felix Hernandez, SEA (vs. CWS) (DK: $7K, FD: $7.7K)

When I review the numbers for Hernandez these days I can’t even believe it’s the same person. Once one of the most exciting pitchers to watch in baseball he’s now been reduced to mediocrity (and even that’s a stretch). He enters today with a 4.44 SIERA and only 18.8% strikeouts. He struggles a lot with left-handed batters including a 4.79 xFIP and a 59.9% LOB% while allowing 42.3% fly balls, a 15.5% HR/FB rate, and 38.6% hard contact. It’s not much better against righties. The xFIP drops to a still uncomfortable 4.21 but the strikeout rate also drops to 17.4%. He does get 51.4% groundballs but still allows 40.2% hard contact. Lefties have a .274 xISO and .348 xwOBA against him while righties have a .149 xISO and .339 xwOBA. So, after showing you all this, why do I like this guy today? Three words: Chicago White Sox. They are just not a threatening offense and I will continue to roster pitchers against them, especially on slates like this, when nobody in the mid and lower tiers is really jumping off the page at me. Chicago strikes out 25.4% of the time to right-handed pitching which should give Hernandez’s strikeout rate a solid boost today. They have a little power with a .161 team ISO but this is a negative park shift for them playing at Safeco Field. Their wOBA is poor at just .307 and they only have a 30.3% hard-hit rate as a team which is the third worst in major league baseball. Avisail Garcia is their best hitter at the moment and he’s on the disabled list. When I look at pitch type data they don’t profile well against what Hernandez is typically throwing either. He’s a curveball, changeup, and sinker pitcher. Nobody on the White Sox can hit curveballs. Moncada, Davidson, and Palka all have some success against changeups and sinkers but they also strikeout a ton. Jose Abreu matches up very poorly. It’s not pretty, I fully acknowledge this, but Safeco is a great pitcher’s park, his opponents implied run total is under four, and he’s the biggest favorite on the board for the main slate at -230. You need to consider him today. If the Philadelphia game gets rained out this is where I'm most likely going to pivot from Velasquez.

#HomeRunWatchList 💥

Make sure you are utilizing the LineStar Daily Matchup Tool when looking for hitters with a lot of home run potential.

Corey Dickerson, OF (DK: $4.5K, FD: $3.3K): To say that DeSclafani is bad against lefties might be the understatement of the year. He’s giving up 47.1% fly balls with a 25% HR/FB rate and 44.4% hard contact. This has resulted in 3.13 HR/9 against lefties this season! They have a whopping .312 xISO against him. How he survives pitching the majority of his starts at arguably the best ballpark in baseball for left-handed power is beyond me. Anyway, we should plan to take full advantage of this mismatch today. Gregory Polanco is actually the best hitter on Pittsburgh against righties, but it’s Dickerson who profiles more against DeSclafani’s pitch types. He has a .187 xISO against sliders and a .189 xISO against fastballs.

Joey Votto, 1B (DK: $4.6K, FD: $4.1K): On the other side of this game we have another pitcher who also struggles with left-handed batters against a Reds team that is designed to take full advantage of how home run friendly Great American Ballpark is to lefties. Kingham has a very low 16.2% strikeout rate to go along with 42.5% fly balls allowed and a 20.6% HR/FB rate against left-handed hitters. He’s giving up 2.63 HR/9 to lefties who have a .275 xISO against him this season. Votto is more of a contact hitter than a power hitter these days as displayed by his massive .413 wOBA but only an average .176 ISO against right-handed pitching. Still, a .176 ISO is more than enough for him to hit a long ball and he also matches up extremely well against Kingham’s most often used pitch types. He has a .428 xISO against fastballs and a .246 xISO against changeups this season.

Chris Taylor, SS (DK: $4K, FD: $3.3K): This one should go under the radar pretty well. First of all, Taylor gets a nice park upgrade going from Dodger Stadium to Miller Park. Secondly, he’s facing a right-handed reverse splits pitcher who’s allowing 43.1% fly balls with a 17.7% HR/FB rate and 37.6% hard contact against righties this season. They are hitting 1.95 HR/9 with a .290 xISO against him. Taylor is definitely not the first person you think of when it comes to power in this stacked lineup but he’s standing out to me with a .189 ISO and 34.6% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. Anderson throws a fastball (45.9% of the time) and a curveball (24.9% of the time) and Taylor has a .242 xISO against fastballs and a .190 xISO against curveballs. He makes for a solid middle infielder option today with some upside.

Value Bats

Willie Calhoun 2B/OF (DK: $2.9K, FD: $2.5K): The Rangers top prospect was recalled yesterday to take the spot of Nomar Mazara who landed on the disabled list. I kept an eye on him but didn't have much interest in a difficult spot against Trevor Bauer. Today, however, is looking better against a talented but inconsistent Carlos Carrasco. Calhoun came to Texas as part of the package for Yu Darvish. He's been considered more than ready to hit at the major league level (which is all we care about for DFS purposes) but Texas left him in the minors for a while to work on his defense. In 94 games this season in Triple-A he has a .306 average with eight home runs and 42 RBIs. He has a .804 OPS, .138 ISO, and .354 wOBA. Not great power numbers but the wOBA is solid. In what's expected to be a high scoring game today in the Texas heat, Calhoun makes for a fine punt option on tonight's slate.

Kyle Seager, 3B (DK: $3.5K, FD: $3.2K): Seager is egregiously underpriced on DraftKings in a phenomenal spot today against Dylan Covey. What started out as a promising season for Covey has come crashing down like a ton of bricks over the past month. He has a brutal 4.74 xFIP with only 16.7% strikeouts and 11.2% walks. Lefties have a .184 xISO and .353 xwOBA against him this season. Seager has a ton of power upside with a .199 ISO and 38.3% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. Covey throws a two-seam fastball and a slider most often to lefties. Seager has a .339 xISO and .375 xwOBA against two-seam fastballs and a .249 xISO and .361 xwOBA against sliders. He's a better value on DraftKings today but makes for an excellent mid-range option on FanDuel as well.

John Ryan Murphy, C (DK: $3K, FD: $2.1K): Need a punt catcher? Look no further than John Ryan Murphy today. He’s incredibly cheap on FanDuel and I love using catchers in tournaments over there. The rest of the field tries to avoid them since they are a hard position to fill and not required on that site. It can really help you differentiate your lineups if you find one in a good spot. Murphy has big time numbers against left-handed pitching this season including a .258 ISO, .351 wOBA, and 52.9% hard-hit rate. Freeland is allowing a .179 xISO and .327 xwOBA against right-handed bats this season. He throws a fastball, changeup, and slider. Murphy destroys each of these pitch types. He has a .463 xISO, .426 xwOBA against fastballs, a .336 xISO, .393 xwOBA against changeups, and a .537 xISO and .442 xwOBA against sliders. Fire him up.

Stacks on Stacks 🥞

For the record, I love the Cleveland Indians today in what's looking like 109-degree heat (that's insane) against Bartolo Colon. They just felt too obvious so I'll exclude them from this list.

Cincinnati Reds (vs. Nick Kingham): I can see a scenario where Kingham is a popular pitching arm today. He’s a young and talented prospect with strikeout upside and above average run prevention skills as displayed by his 3.69 SIERA. There are usable options in the mid-tier today but nobody that truly jumps off the page. Kingham is one option I will be completely avoiding, however, as his struggles against left-handed batters will be catastrophic against the Reds in this ballpark today. In case you need a reminder, he has a very low 16.2% strikeout rate while allowing 42.5% fly balls of which 20.6% wind up has home runs. He’s giving up 2.63 HR/9 to lefties who have a .275 xISO against him this season. We already know how much I like Votto so he’s the priority in this stack. Gennett is next with a .197 ISO and .391 wOBA. Jessie Winkler is standing out. He only has a .137 ISO but a very strong .375 wOBA and 48.1% hard-hit rate. Tucker Barnhart makes a nice catcher and salary saver in this stack. His numbers aren’t good but he does have a 39.5% hard-hit rate. Kingham is better against right-handed batters but I certainly wouldn’t be afraid to use any if going for a full stack in tournaments today. Suarez has a .252 ISO and .383 wOBA with 50.9% hard-hits against righties. Adam Duvall has a .186 ISO and Jose Peraza has a .333 wOBA. All these guys are in play but the lefties are most important.

Minnesota Twins (vs. Jakob Junis): Junis will make his first start since going on the disabled list with back inflammation. He’s been really bad this year allowing a .224 xISO, .339 xwOBA, and 41.3% hard contact to lefties and a .259 xISO, .359 xwOBA, and 42.6% hard contact to righties. Plus, there’s always increased risk making his first start off the disabled list. There’s nothing that says his back won’t flare up on him again and he’d have to make an early exit. This would make room for the league’s worst bullpen to try and fill in. I’m all over the Twins today as a result. They are still missing Logan Morrison (he’s expected back tomorrow) but we still have a lot of bats to work with. Jorge Polanco has a .431 wOBA since being recalled, Rosario (.256 ISO, .398 wOBA), Cave (.238 ISO, .387 wOBA), Escobar (.289 ISO, 373 wOBA), Garver (.343 wOBA), and Dozier (.203 ISO and 39.4% hard-hits) are all firmly in consideration today.

Seattle Mariners (vs. Dylan Covey): This is not the best park for stacking but I don’t think it’s going to matter today against Dylan Covey. He’s been terrible recently. Not sure if he’s hurt or what but after a good start to the season where I actually rostered him a few times and even wrote him up in this article he’s been an abomination ever since. He’s got a 4.74 xFIP with just 16.7% strikeouts and 11.2% walks to lefties and a 5.44 xFIP with only 13% strikeouts and a 10.1% walk rate to righties. Opposing lefties have a .184 xISO and .353 xwOBA against him while opposing righties have a .190 xISO and .357 xwOBA against him. The Mariners have an insane amount of players who can hit right-handed pitching very well. Haniger (.241 ISO, .362 wOBA), Cruz (.236 ISO, .366 wOBA), Healy (.225 ISO, 38.1% hard-hits), Span (.216 ISO, .377 wOBA), Seager (.199 ISO), and Jean Segura (.340 wOBA) would all make outstanding stack pieces today. With Zunino still out on a rehab assignment Chris Herrmann has a .207 ISO and makes for a fine catcher option if you need it.

The Bullpen

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @glandry if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@GP_Landry).